In most sports, the last game of the regular season usually just isn't very important. Two teams being tied after 81 or 161 games is rare, and it's even more unlikely for those two teams to be competing for the same playoff spots within a division or league. That's all different in the NFL, where teams only get 16 chances to separate themselves from the competition. Week 17 is often the de facto start of the playoffs, with a bunch of win-or-go-home games on the slate. This year is relatively light on the drama, but there are still a handful of games that could make a big impact on the playoff picture. Let's get to it. (Home team in CAPS)
DOLPHINS (+9.5) over Patriots
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Despite the presence of Matt Moore on the Dolphins roster, both of these teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs, but we still don't know where either will be seeded. The Patriots sit in their rightful place atop the AFC, but a loss and a Raiders win would drop them to the #2 seed. This scenario is de ja vu for Pats fans, who will remember that New England was in poll position for the #1 seed before losing their final two games last year, resulting in a trip to Denver for the AFC Championship game that we're not gonna talk about. Brady and Belichick have been pretty open about not wanting to make the same mistake again this year, but the scenario is definitely different. Even if the Pats do end up as the #2 seed, the only place they might have to travel would be to Oakland, where they would face Matt McGloin for a Super Bowl ticket. That's far from a nightmare scenario, and may be enough for Belichick to play this game in Miami very conservatively. However, The Hooded One is not a big fan of resting players, and almost certainly won't want his defense to lose the momentum they've built up over the past month. With one bye week already secured, there is also less need for rest.
For Miami, the stakes are a whole lot higher. If they lose, they will be locked into the #6 seed, which means a trip to Pittsburgh. If they win, they have a chance to jump to the #5 seed, which means a matchup with the Texans. Facing Ben Roethlisberger vs facing Tom Savage is about as life-or-death as it gets.
While I think both teams will be trying in this one, the Dolphins definitely need it more. They are at home, where they always play the Pats tough. Belichick will probably start everyone, but the gameplan will be vanilla and conservative, especially on offense. I don't see the Pats winning by double digits, so I'll take the points.
The Broncos are out of the playoffs.
The Raiders can move up to the 1 seed with a win, or fall all the way to the 5 seed with a loss. They have plenty of motivation, but they also have to start Matt McGloin at QB thanks to Derek Carr's brutal broken leg. One of the most difficult adjustments for inexperienced signal callers to make is to the speed of the NFL game; even playing in preseason doesn't really get you ready for how fast football is on Sunday. It seems downright unfair then that McGloin's first start since 2013 will be in Denver. If the game feels too fast for him already, Von Miller is going to feel like The Flash wielding Thor's hammer.
Oh yeah, and if the Raiders do lose, we will get a Matt McGloin vs. Tom Savage matchup in the first round. As a fan of hilariously terrible football, I am extremely excited for this.
Chiefs (-5.5) over CHARGERS
The Chiefs currently hold the 5 seed, but could jump up to the 2 seed with a win and a Raiders loss. Thats the difference between going to Houston on wildcard weekend and staying home. From the neutral perspective, we should be rooting for the Chiefs to lose in week 17 so they can get rid of the Texans (as, of course, is tradition). Alex Smith is going to be the third best QB in the AFC playoffs. Woof.
The Chargers have endured an absolutely miserable season destroyed by early injuries to key players and an incredible ability to find creative ways to lose. I have no idea what they might be playing for, and they have literally no home field advantage. This line should be at least 7.
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| Pretty much sums it up |
Unlike in years past, the Seahawks have been stumbling towards the finish line, with key player after key player going down with injuries. Safety Earl Thomas is out for the season, as is WR Tyler Lockett and RB C.J. Prosise. They are 2-3 in their last 5 games, and simply haven't looked as dominant as they used to. They are still dangerous, but they could really use a win this week to set up their playoff run. Currently the #3 seed, they are slated to host whoever snags the final spot, with a trip to Atlanta in the divisional round. However, with a win and a Falcons loss, Seattle would move up to the 2 seed, getting a bye and then hosting the Divisional Round. Given how much of an advantage the Seahawks crowd gives them, the difference between the 2 and 3 seeds could be huge. With a loss here, the Seahawks would fall to the 4 seed, setting up a matchup with the Giants on Wild Card Weekend. Seattle has everything to play for, and the San Francisco actually has incentive to lose because of the draft. I simply can't see the 49ers keeping it competitive.
Saints (+7) over FALCONS
This is a HUGE game for Atlanta. If they can catch Seattle for the 2 seed, their path through the playoffs would be entirely in domed stadiums, including the Super Bowl in Houston. If they can't catch Seattle, they will host a wildcard game and then have to travel to Seattle. That's not an easy path, especially for a team that relies on its high powered offense.
The Saints have no chance to make the playoffs, so why am I picking them? Well, first because these teams HATE each other, which should provide plenty of motivation for New Orleans to play spoiler. Secondly, I don't think the Falcons are that much better of a team; both are all offense no defense squads that rely on explosive passing games. The Falcons are better, but not by that much. But mostly, this is just one of those games that teams from Atlanta lose. Especially at home. Its just the way it goes. Sorry ATL. At least Gucci Mane is out of jail?
Giants (+7.5) over REDSKINS
The Giants are locked into the #5 seed, and will play on the road against Atlanta, Green Bay or Detroit. Nothing they do in this game will change that. The Redskins need to win to lock up the #6 seed (unless the Packers and Lions tie), and a loss will eliminate them from the playoffs. On paper, the Giants should rest all of their starters, giving Washington an easy win. But I don't think the Giants play it that way. This team is on fire, and wants to keep it rolling into the playoffs. Hell, Victor Cruz was even talking this week about a Super Bowl trilogy matchup against the Pats, so you know the Giants feel like they are going on another one of their runs (this will drive me insane, btw). Additionally, the Redskins play in Washington, which might be the only city with a better history of playoff duds than Atlanta. The Redskins may win this game (and the playoff spot) in the end, but they definitely won't make it easy on themselves. Even if they are facing New York's backups, this will be a one score game.
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Packers (-3.5) over LIONS
This is the only true win-or-go-home matchup this week, and appropriately it has been flexed into the Sunday Night TV slot. Technically, both teams would advance to the postseason with a tie, but this isn't soccer so we aren't going to see 75 minutes of Stafford and Rodgers kneeling. They are going to fight for the win, and its pretty easy to see why the Packers are favored despite being on the road. They have won 5 straight games, with Rodgers posting passer ratings above 100 in 4 of them. Perhaps more importantly, they have improved their defense, which was getting absolutely shredded earlier in the year. While still certainly far from a solid unit, Green Bay is no longer giving up video game stats every week. With Rodgers and the offense cruising like they are, just getting in the Lions way might be enough, and honestly, they might not even have to do that because...
The Lions suck. Yes, they have won 9 games, but they are also 8-4 in games decided by 7 points or less. You read that correctly, 12 of the Lions 15 games this year came down to the final possession. There is a ton of statistical evidence that says that a team's record in close games mostly comes down to chance in the NFL, so the Lions are closer to a .500 team than the playoff contender they've been all season. They have gotten whooped in both of their last two games, 42-21 to the Cowboys and a 17-6 scoreline against the Giants that should have been about 50-6. Detroit fans are probably banking on the Packers defense being awful, but the Lions offense hasn't been much better: they are 17th in offensive DVOA for the season, and 31st over the last month. They have absolutely no running game, and even with a ton of volume, Stafford has thrown for more than 300 yards just once since week 3.
The Packers are running hot, the Lions are in a tailspin. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, the Lions do not. The Packers are the Packers, and the Lions play here:
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That's actually a picture of Aleppo, but you didn't know that and nobody can blame you.
