It's playoff time baby! After back-to-back last place finishes, the Red Sox are back in the postseason for the first time since 2013. Somebody remind me how that turned out...
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| nice smile Buchholz you creepy fuck |
Season Series: 4-2 Red Sox, with Boston taking 2 of 3 in both series the teams played this year.
Schedule
Game 1: Cleveland, Thursday @ 8 PM EST
Game 2: Cleveland, Friday @ 4:30 PM EST
Game 3: Boston, Sunday @ 4 PM EST
Game 4 (if necessary): Boston, Monday TBD
Game 5 (If necessary): Cleveland, Wednesday, TBD
Cleveland has home field advantage in the series by virtue of winning 1 more game than the Sox during the regular season. They were 53-28 at home, tied for 2nd best in MLB, so this could definitely play a big role in the series.
Starting Lineups
Red Sox
| Player | POS | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | 2B | 633 | 105 | 15 | 74 | 7 | 0.318 | 0.376 | 0.449 | 0.825 | 61 | 73 |
| 2 | Brock Holt | 3B | 290 | 45 | 7 | 34 | 4 | 0.255 | 0.322 | 0.383 | 0.705 | 27 | 58 |
| 3 | Mookie Betts | RF | 672 | 122 | 31 | 113 | 26 | 0.318 | 0.363 | 0.534 | 0.897 | 49 | 80 |
| 4 | David Ortiz | DH | 537 | 79 | 38 | 127 | 2 | 0.315 | 0.401 | 0.620 | 1.021 | 80 | 86 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | 1B | 549 | 81 | 30 | 111 | 9 | 0.286 | 0.361 | 0.505 | 0.866 | 60 | 120 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | SS | 652 | 115 | 21 | 89 | 13 | 0.294 | 0.356 | 0.446 | 0.802 | 58 | 123 |
| 7 | Jackie Bradley | CF | 558 | 94 | 26 | 87 | 9 | 0.267 | 0.349 | 0.486 | 0.835 | 63 | 143 |
| 8 | Sandy Leon | C | 252 | 36 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 0.310 | 0.369 | 0.476 | 0.845 | 23 | 66 |
| 9 | Andrew Benintendi | LF | 105 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0.295 | 0.359 | 0.476 | 0.835 | 10 | 25 |
The Red Sox offense was dominant during the regular season, scoring an MLB-best 878 runs during the regular season. The top of the order is completely devastating, anchored by possible MVP Mookie Betts and the living legend Big Papi, along with a massively resurgent Hanley Ramirez. Dustin Pedroia is hitting as well as he ever has right now, and doing a great job setting the table for the power guys. Hanley Ramirez is red hot, riding a power surge that saw him belt 10 home runs in the month of September alone. If Mookie Betts does indeed win MVP, it will be in large part because he was a destroyer of worlds down the stretch, batting .330 over the final month of the season. If the Sox can get guys like Jackie Baseball and Xander Bogaerts going like they were earlier in the year, this lineup will be completely unstoppable.
Indians
| Player | POS | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | 1B | 582 | 89 | 34 | 87 | 5 | 0.259 | 0.366 | 0.498 | 0.865 | 99 | 99 |
| 2 | Jason Kipnis | 2B | 610 | 91 | 23 | 82 | 15 | 0.275 | 0.343 | 0.469 | 0.811 | 60 | 146 |
| 3 | Francisco Lindor | SS | 604 | 99 | 15 | 78 | 19 | 0.301 | 0.358 | 0.435 | 0.794 | 57 | 88 |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | DH | 557 | 92 | 34 | 101 | 5 | 0.239 | 0.335 | 0.465 | 0.800 | 78 | 194 |
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | 3B | 565 | 84 | 11 | 76 | 22 | 0.312 | 0.363 | 0.462 | 0.825 | 44 | 62 |
| 6 | Lonnie Chisenhall | RF | 385 | 43 | 8 | 57 | 6 | 0.286 | 0.328 | 0.439 | 0.767 | 23 | 70 |
| 7 | Rajai Davis | LF | 454 | 74 | 12 | 48 | 43 | 0.249 | 0.306 | 0.388 | 0.693 | 33 | 106 |
| 8 | Tyler Naquin | CF | 321 | 52 | 14 | 43 | 6 | 0.296 | 0.372 | 0.514 | 0.886 | 36 | 112 |
| 9 | Yan Gomes | C | 251 | 22 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 0.167 | 0.201 | 0.327 | 0.527 | 9 | 69 |
While Cleveland can't quite match the top-to-bottom balance of the Red Sox, they are a very strong offensive team in their own right. They scored 777 runs, good for 5th best in baseball. The Indians hit just 185 homers this yar (18th in MLB), but make up for it with clutch hitting and speed on the basepaths (they stole 134 bases as a team, best in the American League). They feature a very unusual lineup construction, as their leadoff hitter is a first baseman who is tied for the team lead in HR and isn't a threat to steal. Meanwhile, their speedy middle infield star (Francisco Lindor) bats third, a spot traditionally reserved for sluggers. Red Sox fans will also recognize Mike Napoli, who will bat cleanup for Cleveland while trying to reproduce the October magic that propelled his 2013 Sox to the championship. The bottom half of Cleveland's order is something of an x-factor in this series, as it features a bunch of guys who only played part of the season. If their unproven young guys like Tyler Naquin can produce, the Indians can match the Sox scoring onslaught. If not, then the bottom of the order will give Boston's pitchers some easy innings.
Starting Pitching
Red Sox
Rick Porcello: 22-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 189 Ks, 221 IP
David Price: 17-9, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 228 Ks, 230 IP
Clay Buchholz: 8-10, 4.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 93 KS, 139 IP
Eduardo Rodriguez: 3-7, 4.71 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 100 Ks, 107 IP
John Farrell's decision to start Buchholz in Game 3 is controversial, as Clay has been inconsistent to say the least, not only this season but his entire career. Thanks to Farrell getting Steven Wright hurt by using him as a pinch runner for some dumbass reason, there was an opening in the rotation, and Clay has earned his spot with the way he pitched down the stretch. In 5 September starts, he was excellent in 4 of them, going at least 6 innings while allowing two runs or less. In the other, he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings. I'm ok with Clay getting the ball in game 3, but he has to be on the shortest of leashes. When Buchholz is Suckholz, its obvious early on, and Farrell cannot give him the chance to work through it. The Red Sox will be carrying Drew Pomeranz on the ALDS roster, and he needs to be ready to come in early if Clay doesn't have it.
Indians
Trevor Bauer: 12-8, 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 168 Ks, 190 IP
Corey Kluber: 18-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 227 Ks, 215 IP
Josh Tomlin: 13-9 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 118 Ks, 174 IP
The Indians rotation was a major strength for most of the season, but a couple of horribly timed injuries have really downgraded their starting pitching. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were the number 2 and 3 starters for this team before going down in September, and neither are on the roster for this round. That leaves Cleveland with only 1 truly solid starter in Kluber, who won the Cy Young in 2014 and is in the running to win it again this season. Manager Terry Francona has chosen to use Kluber against David Price, setting up a power pitching matchup for Game 2. The Indians really need Kluber to be brilliant in this series, as I don't see their other pitchers keeping the Sox down. He will probably have to win twice in 5 games for Cleveland to advance.
Bullpens
Red Sox: Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, Drew Pomeranz, Robbie Ross Jr., Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara, Crag Kimbrel
The Sox have a decent group of relievers, with arms for a variety of situations. Pomeranz is a starter in the regular season, and will be the go to guy if someone gets in trouble early in the game. Robbie Ross Jr. will be the lefty-on-lefty specialist, as left handed hitters are batting just .188 against him this year. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are fireballers who can gas it up to 99 MPH, but neither are dominant and will probably be 6th-7th inning guys. Ziegler is a submariner who is particularly adept at getting ground balls; he will be a major situational option to bring in with men on base to get a double play. Uehara is the Sox timeless, 41 year old former closer, who will man 8th inning duties as the bridge to Kimbrel. Kimbrel has been one of the best closers in the game for years, but he did struggle in each of his final 3 outings during the regular season. He will need to exhibit better control in October.
Indians: Cody Allen, Cody Anderson, Mike Clevinger, Jeff Manship, Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller
Francona will probably be leaning fairly heavily on this group, especially in Game 3. I can see a scenario in which they tag team Tomlin and Clevinger in game 3, with each guy going a few innings. The Indians do boast some excellent arms at the back end of the pen, and will feel very comfortable with the lead in the late innings. Andrew Miller, acquired in a midseason trade with Yankees, is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. The lefty has a .139 batting average against, with 46 strikeouts in 29 innings. Those numbers are absurd, and he is especially devastating against a lefty-heavy lineup like the Sox. Shaw is another strikeout machine in a setup role, averaging more than 1 punchout per inning. Closer Cody Allen has also been outstanding this season, converting 32 of 35 save opportunities while putting up a 2.51 ERA.
I have to give the edge in the bullpen to the Indians, who have just been more consistent all season. They have 3 dominant arms for the late innings, so the Sox really have to do their damage in the early parts of the game.
Prediction: Sox in 4. Boston simply has too much offense for the thin pitching staff of the Indians. I don't think Cleveland can win in a shootout, and I don't think they will get outstanding pitching from the mediocre healthy guys they have left. With Carrasco and Salazar in the mix, this would be a different story, but the fact is they don't have those guys. Francona is an excellent manager, and these will be close, hard fought games... but Boston just has too much talent.
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