NFL Week 4 Picks

Last Week: 6-9-1

Not going to lie to you, last week was rough. The Bills slaughtered the Cardinals, the Steelers scored 3 points, the Bucs somehow gave up 37 to the Rams, and I'm left making excuses to my bookie. Welp, there's only one way to dig out of the hole... Make more bets!

BENGALS (-7.5) over Dolphins

Boy, what a shitty game that was if you don't have AJ Green on your fantasy team. The Dolphins scored on their opening drive of the game, and then spent the remainder of the game reminding people that playing a college wide receiver at quarterback is a terrible idea. Ryan Tannehill obviously was never going to be a top tier signal caller, but there are actually a few different molds of serviceable NFL quarterbacks. Unfortunately, Tannehill doesn't fit any of them: he isn't accurate enough to run a west coast style offense, turns the ball over too often to be an Alex Smith-style game manager, and doesn't have the running ability or arm strength to be a Mike Vick/Tyrod Taylor type athlete. After 4 years of hearing that Tannehill is ready to make the leap, it's time to call it: the Dolphins will never go anywhere as long as he is at the helm. Unfortunately for Miami, Tannehill is in just the 2nd year of a contract extension that runs through the 2020 season and will pay him $19 million per season. Calls like that are the reason GM Dennis Hickey no longer has a job.

At least Mrs. Tannehill looks good

PATRIOTS (-7) over Bills

I don't know who New England will start at QB, and neither do you. It's hard for me to imagine Jimmy Garopollo playing just two weeks after spraining the AC joint in his throwing shoulder, but reports from Pats practice this week had him dropping 30 yard dimes all over the place. That could be (definitely is) misdirection, and it's entirely possible that we'll see what Jacoby Brissett can do on a sprained right thumb. Honestly though, I really don't care who starts this week. I have no idea how, but Bill Belichick is going to win this game. He is going to build a nest in Rex Ryan's brain and steal his lunch money. Im not betting against the best coach of all time until further notice.

In addition to my blind faith, I like the Pats because of what's been going on with the Bills. Had they lost last week, they would be playing to save Rex's job this week. Instead, I think the upset of the Cardinals means Rex is safe win or lose in New England. Additionally, the Bills have a bunch of players injured this week, mostly in the defensive backfield. Their secondary was struggling before, and now they will be relying on the backups. New England is 27-3 against Buffalo in the Belichick Era, and that dominance will continue this week. 

Colts (-2.5) over JAGUARS

The only good thing about NFL games in London is that football starts at 9:30 AM EST. Which, considering that means 3 extra hours of drinking, might not be a good thing at all (at least for my liver). I get that Fuhrer Goodell wants to expand the sport internationally, but if that's the point, why do we keep sending England our shittiest teams? This will be the fourth time the Jags play in Wembley Stadium, which at this point might be a better home field advantage for them than their actual, 1/3rd-full-of-swamp-people home field. Last year's London matchups? Chiefs vs Lions, Bills vs. Jaguars, and Jets vs. Dolphins. Woof. I can't imagine that anyone is genuinely excited about this "NFL International Series".

As far as the actual game goes, neither of these teams are any good. Like at all. As a team that is best at throwing the ball and defending the pass, Jacksonville matches up fairly well with Indy, who can't run the ball and are ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA. That being said, I'm basically going with Andrew Luck over Garbage Time Bortles. The spread is small enough that the Jags inevitable late game comeback against prevent defense won't have potential to produce a bullshit backdoor cover (like the Lions pulled off last week).

JETS (+1.5) over Seahawks

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw about a million interceptions last week and single handedly fucked his team. Seattle's offense woke up and scored 38 points in a dominating home win over the 49ers. So why am I taking the Jets? Because I believe in the matchups. The Jets have a truly devastating front seven on defense, and the Seahawks offensive line doesn't have a single NFL quality starter. Russell Wilson is playing on a sprained ankle, which robs the Seahawks of many of the dynamic things they can do based off their quarterback's mobility. Unless Fitzpatrick hands them a basket of turnovers, I don't see how the Seahawks score 20 points. 

The big question then will be if the Jets banged up offensive unit can get anything going. I have to be honest, I don't think they will. It starts with injuries: Eric Decker won't be playing, and Brandon Marshall is still dealing with the nagging knee and foot injuries he's been dealing with. Seattle has the #1 defense by DVOA through 3 weeks, and is playing as well as it ever has. Teams have found success over the years by exploiting the seam in Pete Carrol's cover 3, but unfortunately the Jets don't have a tight end of any kind on the roster. The Jets will need to get Matt Forte and the running game going, and find creative ways to get Marshall and fellow big body Quincy Enunwa into vulnerable areas. I don't think the Jets will score a lot, but I think their d-line will just be overpowering. 

Bonus bet: under 39.5 total points

Panthers (-3) over FALCONS

This line is a reaction to last week's games. The Falcons scored at will on the Saints, while Cam Newton struggled against the Vikings. I do think Atlanta is a more well rounded team this year, especially offensively; last season,  they relied way too much on throwing to Julio Jones, whereas this year Matt Ryan has been spreading the ball around to other options like Jacob Tamme and Mohammed Sanu. Additionally, the Falcons have gotten a ton of production from their two headed running back crew of Devontae Freeman and Tevin Coleman. However, I see them struggling a bit this week. The Panthers are a top 5 defense against the run, so Atlanta will be forced to throw a lot. Carolina will get some pressure on Ryan, and their linebackers are the best in the NFL at covering the kind of underneath throws that Ryan like to use to get in rhythm. I see the Panthers taking away what the Falcons want to do, and if Cam can actually get Kelvin Benjamin involved this week they will win comfortably. 

Lions (-3) over BEARS

Still can't see a playoff spot

The Bears are dreadful. If the Browns don't get the #1 overall pick, the Bears will. They don't do anything well, and they won't have Jay Cutler again this week. Detroit's defense is pretty bad, but Jim Bob Cooter has their offense operating well, and they do have an NFL starter under center. Mostly though, the Bears are terrible. They have to be sooo thankful for the Cubs, because otherwise the city of Chicago might just drop the entire team off in the South Side and let them fend for themselves.  

REDSKINS (-7.5) over Browns

Coming off a major divisional win, there is serious Trap Game potential in this one for Washington. That being said, the Browns are the worst team in the league and are not going to win a game this year. I'm not sure how the Redskins are favored by 2 points less than the Dolphins were last week, but it certainly makes me a lot more comfortable taking them here. Also, watch out for Desean Jackson to have another huge game this week, because there is nothing more Browns than giving up big TD passes to a receiver who can only go deep. 

Titans (+4.5) over TEXANS

The Texans learned this week that JJ Watt would have to go on IR due to his back injury, a devastating blow for a team that is already reeling off a terrible loss to the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Houston's defense certainly still has quality pieces on defense, but everything changes without Watt commanding double/triple teams wherever he lines up. It think the Titans will find a way to lose this game late, probably because Mike Mularkey chooses to defend Deandre Hopkins with an offensive lineman on a critical 4th quarter possession. It will be stupid, it will be agonizing, but the Titans will cover. 

Raiders (+3.5) over RAVENS

The Ravens are 3-0, but it has to be among the least impressive 3-0 starts of all time. Baltimore has beaten the Bills, Browns and Jaguars by a combined 13 points, and haven't looked good doing it. They have been excellent on defense so far (for whatever that's worth), and I do think their front seven is legit. However, I think that their secondary is pretty much garbage, and this week they will face the first QB good enough to take advantage of it. Derek Carr has completed 66.9% of his passes for 867 yards, 5 TDs and only 1 INT this season, and he's going to feast this week. The Raiders defense has been much worse than I expected this year, but unless Joe Flacco completes a handful of deep balls and gets a few timely pass interference penalties, I don't think the Ravens have the weapons to punish Oakland. 

Broncos (-3) over BUCCANEERS

The Broncos defense is playing at a very high level, having allowed no more than 20 points in three games against playoff quality offenses (Panthers, Colts, Bengals). However, the emergence of Trevor Siemian is the real story here: the rookie QB absolutely torched the Bengals last week for 312 yards and 4 TDs with 0 turnovers, and he showed the ability to make pinpoint throws downfield into tight coverage. However, Siemian also appears to have inherited the 17 leaf clover that Peyton Manning used to win the Super Bowl last year; I counted at least 4 passes that could/should have been picked off last week, and that's a running theme this year. If Siemian continues to lead an above average offense, the Broncos are going to be extremely hard to beat. 

49ERS (+2) over Cowboys

To be honest, I really don't know what to make of this game. Coming into the season, I thought San Francisco had one of the least talented rosters in the NFL, but they have looked better than expected so far. They've lost two straight by multiple touchdowns, but that was also against the Seahawks and Panthers. The Cowboys have won two straight, over the Bears and Redskins. I can't really take anything away from those results. I do think Dallas is the better team, but not by all that much. Dez Bryant is dealing with a fractured kneecap, and there are conflicting reports about his availability to play. I'm no doctor, but it seems to me that a small crack in your bone can get a lot bigger if you smash it with a linebacker. Given the risk of making the injury worse, keeping Dez off the field seems like a no brainer.  

Both of these teams are average at best, and I don't have a good feeling either way. I'll take the home dawg, but I don't feel good about it. 

CHARGERS (-4) over Saints

This game should be a shootout. The Saints pathetic defense somehow gave up 45 points at home against Atlanta last week, in a game where Julio Jones had just 1 catch for 16 yards. That doesn't make any sense. Philip Rivers should absolutely feast in this one, regardless of who his receivers are. 

On the other hand, San Diego is already incredibly banged up on both sides of the ball. Everyone knows about Keenan Allen, but the Chargers will also be missing safety Jahleel Addae and cornerback Brandon Flowers this week. Drew Brees doesn't need any help, and the weather in San Diego is basically the same as playing in a dome. The Saints are going to score a ton of points. Hey Ron, am I going to regret betting on Rivers to beat Brees in a shootout?

 Ok then. 

CARDINALS (-8.5) over Rams

I really don't like taking the Cardinals by more than a touchdown against anybody right now, but I feel even worse about betting on the Rams. They scored 37 points against the Bucs, but there was a lot of flukiness going on in that game. Forget the 69 minute weather delay in the middle of the game, the Rams also scored a defensive TD and got another easy score off a fumble recovery. Tavon Austin had a couple of his long scores, a surefire sign that we won't hear his name for another month or so. The Cardinals have some very real issues (the right side of their offensive line is a sieve), but I think they are pissed off and about to get a blowout divisional win at home. 

STEELERS (-4) over Chiefs

Leveon Bell is back. Justin Houston is not. The Steelers got flat out embarrassed last week, and will be out for revenge on national television. The Chiefs are a good team, but I don't think they will get the same kind of pass rush that the Eagles produced, and that will allow Pittsburgh's stars to get going. 

VIKINGS (-4.5) over Giants

Minnesota's defense might be the best in the NFL. They went into Carolina last week, went down 10 points early, and then completely ruined Cam Newton's day. They sacked the reigning NFL MVP 5 times, and picked him off 3 times. They held the Panthers scoreless over the final 3 quarters of the game. Now, they get to go home, where they enjoy one of the few remaining real home field advantages in the NFL. The Giants have absolutely no running game, and rely on their pair of stud outside receivers. Unfortunately for New York, the Vikings have a STACKED secondary and their pass rush is going to eat Eli Manning for dinner. 

We could see a Hall of Fame Manning Face on Monday Night

Season: 14-17-1