Yesterday, I wrote that David Price had to start pitching like an ace NOW. Well, he did, throwing 8 shutout innings and striking out 6 in Anaheim last night. He had everything going, and was hitting his spots all night long with pinpoint control. That was the pitcher we paid for.
Unfortunately, 8 shutout wasn't enough to get the win. The offense put up just 1 run against Jered Weaver's 83 MPH heater, and Brad Ziegler couldn't get it done in the 9th. The Angels loaded the bases with 1 out, and ex-Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava grounded softly to Hanley Ramirez at first. Ramirez airmailed the throw home, allowing two runs to score and ending the game. Some thoughts in no particular order:
-It really hurt to lose this one, given how well Price pitched
-This is the kind of fielding disaster we expected from Hanley all season long. To his credit, he has been WAY above expectations defensively; this is the first time I can think of that his defense has cost the Sox a game (this season anyway)
-The injuries to the Sox bullpen are killing them. First Carson Smith, then Craig Kimbrel, then Koji Uehara, leaving a submariner as our closer and few options for setup guys. Ziegler has been mostly good since Dombrowski traded for him, but he's definitely not my first option to be closing a game like that
-There have been way too many instances of failed execution recently. Whether it's failing to score with bases loaded nobody out, failing to throw strikes with a big lead, or fucking up simple defensive plays, the team just isn't getting it done in key spots.
-These are games you have to win if you want to contend for a championship, and the Sox aren't. They have all the pieces to win the division, but it's going to be a dogfight with Baltimore and Toronto down to the wire, and simply having a great offense isn't going to be enough. Gotta win the close ones.
After what has to be called a disappointing 4-5 homestand, Boston heads west for an 11 game roadtrip. Being swept for the first time this season is not exactly the kind of momentum you want heading on a trip like this, but maybe it will piss off the boys and motivate them to kick the crap out of these west coast hippies. On to Anaheim (LA? Who knows anymore).
Venue: Angel Stadium of Anaheim
Opponent: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (yes that's seriously what they call themselves)
Record: 45-56, last place in the AL West (12.5 games behind Texas)
Recent Results: 5-4 (won 2-3 vs Royals, swept by Astros, swept Texas)
Run Differential: +3, 7th in AL Team ERA: 4.42, 10th in AL Runs Per Game: 4.7, 8th in AL
The Angels are having a miserable season this year, and appear to be taking a big step backwards for the second consecutive year. They won 98 games in 2014 before being swept in the first round by the Royals, and then won 85 games last year. This season they are on pace to win just 72 games, which would be a complete disaster for them. However, while they are languishing in last place with almost no hope of making the playoffs, their run differential indicates that they are much better than their record. Hell, they have a better run differential than the 1st place Rangers, so its fair to say they've been unlucky so far. Let's hope that continues.
Players to Watch
CF Mike Trout is obviously the guy to keep your eye on for the Angels. He is the consensus best player in baseball, and has finished in the top 2 in MVP voting for 4 straight seasons (and he probably should have won all 4). Trout is the definition of a five tool player, a guy who can catch, throw, run, hit and hit for power all at elite levels. He is hitting .314 this year, and leads the league in on-base percentage at .427. While his power is down a bit (19 HR this year after hitting 41 and 36 the last two seasons), he is still slugging .553 (4th best in the AL).
SS Andrelton Simmons is a certified genius in the field. He is without question the best infielder in the big leagues, and the best I've seen since Omar Visquel. He has range, sure hands, quickness, and a .50 calibre rifle arm. Don't believe me? Just watch.
Recently though, Simmons has evolved into more than just a pretty glove. He is hitting .391 over the past month, giving some protection to the big boppers in the middle of the order.
DH Albert Pujols is a surefire, first ballot Hall of Famer and the greatest hitter of his generation who has not been tainted by steroids (at least not yet). He has hit 579 career HR, which is 4 behind Mark McGwire for 10th all time. He also has a terrible contract, which pays him $25 million this season. He has not been the otherworldly hitter he was in St Louis since signing that massive deal in 2012, but he still hits for power. He has 19 HR this season after hitting 40 last year, but his .253 batting average is far below what he used to put up. If the Sox pitchers can keep the ball away from him, they should be ok but if they leave it middle in or middle up, Albert can still hit it to the moon.
Pitching Matchups
Game 1 (Thursday 10:05 EST): Jered Weaver vs David Price
Jered Weaver is in his 11th MLB season, all with the Angels. He is coming off a season limited by injury, and was diagnosed with a degenerative shoulder condition in spring training of this year. A lot of guys would have shut it down for the season, but Weaver has decided to play through the pain, so you have to give him credit for that. Weaver was never a fireballer, but in recent years his velocity has dropped from the 88-92 range down into the low 80s, which means he really can't rely on his fastball to get people out. Instead, he mixes his five pitches very well, using control, deception and veteran guile to get outs. He is a fly ball pitcher, so playing in the massive Angels Stadium helps him, but could mean trouble against the powerful Red Sox lineup.
David Price is still struggling to find his groove, as he has been all year. He has struggled in back to back outings, giving up 11 hits and failing to get out of the 6th each time. The thing to watch with Price is location; he still has the excellent velocity and movement on his pitches, which has him among the league leaders in strikeouts. Unfortunately, he has struggled with keeping the ball down and away from the middle of the plate, which has led him to give up the third most hits in the AL. His performance has simply been unacceptable given his paycheck and his role as staff ace, and he needs to start turning it around NOW.
Game 2 (Friday, 10:05 EST): Rick Porcello vs Tim Lincecum
Once upon a time, Tim Lincecum was a perfect doppleganger for the kid in Dazed and Confused, as well as the best pitcher in baseball. Neither of those things are true anymore, and he has been trying to recover his mojo since 2011. He was washed out of the Major Leagues earlier this season, until the Angels grabbed him off the scrap heap and gave him another chance. It hasn't gone well. Tim has given up 31 runs in 30 innings across 7 starts, which is baseball diarrhea. He has one good outing this year (his first), and gave up 8 runs in less than 2 IP last time out. However, given what James Shields did to the Sox earlier this season, it wouldn't be a complete shock for Lincecum to recover his old magic for one night with Boston in town.
Rick Porcello has been exactly what the Red Sox thought they were getting when they signed him last season. He isn't the most spectacular pitcher, but he is dependable, eats up innings, and keeps his team in the game every time out there. He has gone at least 6 innings in 10 of his last 11 starts, and has a 3.57 ERA for the year. With the offense that Boston has, that kind of consistency will earn you a lot of wins, and Porcello has wracked up a 13-2 record for the season.
Game 3 (Saturday 10:05 EST): Hector Santiago vs Drew Pomeranz
Hector Santiago is a very average starter. He is a left-handed sinkerballer, which is a bit unusual, so it could take a couple innings for the Sox to adjust to him. He relies on the sinker completely, and relies on keeping the ball on the ground. If the Sox can get the ball up, they can have a lot of success against him.
Drew Pomeranz is making his 3rd start in a Red Sox uniform, looking to get his first win in Boston. He pitched poorly his first time out, but we saw more of what he is made of the last time out, when he pitched 6 very good innings against the Tigers and made just one mistake. Unfortunately, that mistake left the ballpark courtesy of Jose Iglesias, and the Sox offense couldn't get anything going against Verlander. The key for Pomeranz is his curveball; if he is throwing it for strikes and keeping it down, his arsenal comes together nicely and makes him hard to hit. If he can't throw that pitch well, his fastball/cutter combo is not nearly as effective and he struggles.
Game 4 (Sunday 3:35 EST): Tyler Skaggs vs Steven Wright
Tyler Skaggs is a highly touted 25-year-old lefty with very little big league track record to go off. He will be making just his 2nd start of the season, but is coming off of 7 innings of 3 hit, shutout baseball against the Kansas City Royals. He has a solid, low-mid 90s fastball, and a big, looping curve at 75 MPH. He also can mix in a changeup and a two-seam fastball, but is mostly a two-pitch pitcher. It will be a real test of his abilities to see how he does against the best offense in baseball.
Steven Wright has been a true Cinderella story this year, coming out of absolutely nowhere with a fluke pitch to dominate the league. Recently though, he has falling victim to the kryptonite of all fairy tales: regression. He has allowed at least 3 runs in 5 of his last 6 starts, and has allowed at least 6 runs 3 times in that stretch. Wright's knuckleball has not done well in hot, humid environments this year, which does not bode well for his immediate future. However, it may offer some hope that his performances will improve towards the playoffs. For now, we'll just have to hope that the Angels don't tee off on him the way we've seen some teams do recently.
Prediction: Sox win games 1-3 and lose game 4. Good start to the road trip.
After a frustrating 4 game split with the Twins, the Red Sox close out their homestand with 3 games against the Tigers. After this series, Boston will be headed out west for an 11 game road trip, so winning these games will be important to build some momentum. Plus, every game counts in the 3 way dogfight for the AL East. Let's break this series down. Venue: Fenway Park
Opponent: Detroit Tigers
Record: 51-48, 2nd place in the AL Central, 6.0 back of the Indians
Recent Results: 5-5 (split 4 at White Sox, lost 2-3 vs twins, won 2-3 vs royals)
Run Differential: -6, 8th in AL Team ERA: 4.44, 12th in AL Runs Per Game: 4.6, 7th in AL
As you can see from these numbers, the Tigers are the definition of mediocre in 2016. They don't score a ton of runs, and the pitching staff that was the driving force behind much of their success in recent years has fallen off dramatically this season. These are the kind of teams that the Sox have to take advantage of, especially when they come to Fenway. However, the Tigers do have some dangerous players to keep an eye on.
Players to Watch
Miguel Cabrera went to his 7th consecutive All-Star game this season, and has been one of the best (if not THE best) hitters in all of baseball for years. He has had the highest batting average in the AL for 4 of the past 5 seasons, and won back-to-back MVP awards in 2012-13. At 33, he is at the tail end of his prime, and is showing his age a bit this season: he is hitting .295, which would be his worst average in a full season since 2008, and his power numbers have fallen off a bit as well. That being said, he is still a legit middle of the order threat, and the Sox pitchers need to tread lightly with right-handed power at Fenway.
Ian Kinsler is another aging star in the middle of the Detroit order, a guy who you probably wouldn't want if you were building for the future. However, we aren't concerned with the Tigers roster construction at this point, and Kinsler remains one of the best hitting second basemen in the game as it stands today. He has belted 20 HR on the season, with a .294 average.
Francisco Rodriguez is the Tigers closer, so hopefully we won't be seeing him this series. K-Rod is another star past his prime, but he is still throwing gas at 34 years old and getting guys out. He has converted 27 of 29 save chances this year, with an ERA of 2.80 and 36 K's in 35 innings. While the Red Sox lineup can score against anyone, it would be better to not wait around until K-Rod is in the game.
If anything, looking at this Tigers roster makes me worried for the future of the Red Sox organization; current Sox personnel man Dave Dombrowski built this Tigers team by buying high on free agents and trading away prospects for established players, and while they had some success, they did not win a world series with DD at the helm. Now they are a bunch of guys past their prime with little ability to rebuild on the fly, and I fear that Dombrowski is already taking the Sox down that road. Whatever, that's a problem for Future Me. Lets get to the pitching matchups.
Pitching Matchups
Game 1 (Monday, 7:10 EST): Drew Pomeranz vs Justin Verlander
Pomeranz had a rough outing in his Red Sox debut, getting knocked out in the 4th inning by the Giants. The thing to watch from Drew in this game is his curveball, which is his best pitch and the one he uses the most according to FanGraphs. The problem is, he didn't have it working in his first Red Sox start, and once the Giants recognized that they jumped all over him. Pomeranz uses his curve as a strikeou/finishing pitch, and he really needs it working in order to have success against Detroit.
From 2009-13, Justin Verlander was among the most feared pitchers in baseball, throwing upper 90s gas with a plethora of devastating off-speed pitches. Then he started dating Kate Upton in 2014, and his numbers fell off a cliff. Maybe he had something(s) distracting him. However, since his start in July of last season at Fenway, he has really turned things around. Although he isn't dominating like he once was, a 3.74 ERA with 139 Ks in 132 IP this year are solid stats. At 33 years old, Verlander's fastball velocity is down a tick from his prime, but at 93 MPH on average he can still make you respect the fastball. He still has 3 above average offspeed pitches, with a slider, changeup and curveball that he will throw in any count. He is a tough opponent to face, and a good challenge for the Red Sox offense.
Game 2 (Tuesday, 7:10 EST): Steven Wright vs Mike Pelfrey
Steven Wright continues to confound the MLB with his dancing knuckleball. He didn't get to pitch in the All-Star game, which would have been oh so fun, but his numbers are plenty enough to get him the national attention that he deserves. With a 2.67 ERA, he has been the unquestioned ace of the Sox staff, and he is coming off of 8 dominant innings against the Twins.
Mike Pelfrey is a 32 year old vet with 10 years of MLB experience, but he is little more than a replacement level player. He has a 4.78 ERA in 105 innings this year, and has averaged just over 5 innings per start. He relies heavily on his sinker, which can be effective at producing ground ball outs when it's working and effective at producing long home runs when it's not. One thing to note is that Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez all have terrible career numbers against Pelfrey, so the offense may have to come from other sources in this one.
Game 3 (Wednesday, 1:35 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Michael Fulmer
E-Rod has been mostly injured and disappointingly awful this year, but there is reason to believe he may have finally figured things out. He was sent back to Pawtucket at the end of June after getting shelled by the Rays, but he's gotten another chance at the big league level since the All-Star Break, and has made the most of it. He threw 7 innings of 1 run ball against the Yankees, and then followed it up by striking out 8 Twins in 5.1 innings while giving up just 2 runs. He appears to have conquered his pitch-tipping issues, and is controlling his slider much better than we have seen all year. However, I am still skeptical, mostly because both the Yankees and Twins have been awful offensively. The Tigers are not exactly the '27 Yankees, but I think they are a better measuring stick for Rodriguez's progress. He will need to pitch well, because the Tigers are opposing him with a stud.
Michael Fulmer was the centerpiece of the trade between the Tigers and the Mets that sent Yeonis Cespedes to New York, so its clear that Detroit valued him highly. 2016 is his rookie season, but he is already exceeding those expectations by every measure. In 15 starts, Fulmer has posted an ERA of 2.41, with 81 Ks in 89 IP. He already has 4 fully developed, plus-level pitches (fastball, two-seamer, slider, changeup), and he throws straight fire. His average fastball is 95 MPH, and he regularly hits 98 when he needs to. His two seamer averages 94 MPH, with sideways movement. That's just unfair. He's going to be an ace for years to come, and the Tigers are definitely going to look back on that trade with a smile.
Prediction: The Tigers are throwing their two good starters in this series, and the Red Sox are opposing them with two question marks. While I'm confident the Sox will win the middle game of the series, they are going to have to take advantage of every opportunity on offense and get an outstanding performance from either E-Rod or Pomeranz to win the series. I think they will do it, but only because they are playing at Fenway. Boston to win 2-3
On July 2nd, the Red Sox lost to the Angels 21-2. They had fallen to 4.0 games behind the Orioles for the division lead, and they had dropped 8 games in less than a month. The pitching was a complete disaster, the offense was cooling off, and I was utterly disgusted. Since then, quite a bit has changed. The Sox have gone 10-2, with a return to their baseball-destroying form on offense and even some reasons to be hopeful about the pitching staff. They are tied for 1st place in the AL East, and with the Twins, Tigers and Angels left on the schedule for July, there's a real opportunity to build a lead before the Dog Days of August. They really need to take advantage of this chance, as they have only 1 off day in August and play 18 of 30 games on the road.
I have been on record as saying that the front office needed to make some moves in order for this team to become a serious championship contender, and to their credit they have. Team President Dave Dombrowski has a reputation for making moves to acquire veteran talent, and over the All-Star Break he pulled the trigger on another big one, trading for left-handed starter Drew Pomeranz from San Diego. Pomeranz made the NL All-Star team this year, with a 2.47 ERA in 17 starts. He has always had great stuff, but has never been able to stay healthy; in fact, he has already posted a career high for innings pitched this year in only half a season. If Pomeranz can stay healthy, he can fill a gaping hole in the Sox rotation and possibly put them over the top and into the playoffs. He is also just 27 years old, and has 2 more years left on his contract, so he is more than a short term rental. However, there are two major problems with this deal that make it a huge risk for Dombrowski to take: Problem #1: Pomeranz has spent his entire career in small markets on the west coast, and has never experienced anything like the pressure that comes with pitching in the midst of a pennant race in Boston. He didn't exactly make a good first impression either, giving up 5 runs in just 3 innings at Fenway. I'm not going to write the guy off or anything, but it's definitely cause for concern. Problem #2: The price. In order to bring Pomeranz in, Dombrowski had to send the Padres Anderson Espinoza, the 18 year old pitcher who is considered the best pitching prospect in the Red Sox farm system and a guy with one of the highest ceilings in all of baseball. He was clocked at over 100 MPH at the age of 17, which is downright ridiculous. Pedro Martinez says Espinoza reminds him of himself and "has it all". It really hurts to send this guy away, and if he realizes his enormous potential it is going to suck to watch him dominate for years to come.
However, even with both those very real problems, I like this trade. Pitching prospects fail to pan out all the time, and there is just so much that can go wrong in Espinoza's development that would prevent him from becoming an ace or even making an impact in the majors. More than that though, this 2016 offense just looks too special to waste; it's our last year of Big Papi, and a ton of guys are having outstanding seasons all at the same time. Offenses like this don't come along all that often, and the Sox need arms with the proven ability to get MLB hitters out. There's an opportunity to chase a title this season, and you simply have to do it.
You may not have realized this because the marketing for it has been both sparse and generally uninformative.
2. It stars Bryan Cranston
As usual, he is absolutely fantastic, both in the biggest moments and with the smallest details of his posture, facial expressions, and vocal inflections. The guy simply can do no wrong.
3. It has fantastic cinematography
The Infiltrator is directed by Brad Furman, who is most famous for his part in the McConnaisance as the director of 2011's The Lincoln Lawyer. His current project is a true family affair, as the script for The Infiltrator was written by his mother, Ellen. Brad does excellent work in this film, shooting standard conversation scenes in really interesting ways that add to the tension and drama that run throughout the film. He effectively uses tracking shots and extended cuts, and he really makes the most of the outstanding performances he is given by this truly deep cast. Furman also displays an affection for clubs with trippy neon lights and drop dead gorgeous, glitter covered entertainers, so there's that.
4. The Infiltrator tells the true story of a Federal Agent's attempt to (wait for it) infiltrate the Medellin Drug Cartel run by Pablo Escobar
You probably don't know that even if you have seen the trailer, because again, the marketing for this movie has been freaking terrible.
5. You should NOT research this story beforehand
Even though the plot can be hard to follow, the beauty of this film is not in the finer points of the story. The outline of what is going on is NOT hard to follow, and a lot of my enjoyment of this movie would have been lost if I knew in advance what was going to happen.
6. This movie is incredibly intense
There were at least 4 or 5 genuine "HOLY SHIT" moments for me, which definitely would have been dulled if I knew anything about the story going in (obviously).
7. There is solid comic relief
A lot of this movie is challenging, so it's necessary to have a couple characters who make you laugh. Without those guys, a film with this much stress could be really bad for your health.
8. People die in this movie
It's about the most famous drug cartel ever, Im not sure why you'd go to this if you have a problem with that. Just don't get too attached to anyone.
9. This movie does not spoonfeed the audience
There is very little exposition in this film, and you have to pay attention to understand the details of the plot. They even eschew the "leader of the unit explains the plan in the meeting" scenes, instead going for hyper realism; "you know what to do, now go get it done!" Basically, this is not a movie you should get drunk or stoned before going to.
10. I really liked this film
In case you couldn't tell already, I recommend seeing this one.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates premiered on Friday, and took in $16.6 million at the box office, a 4th place result that has to count as a disappointment considering how heavily it has been marketed. I saw it last week, and frankly it WAY exceeded my expectations.
Based on the advertising for it, I expected Mike and Dave to be an exceedingly low-brow rom-com that had far too few laughs and far too much boring and predictable plot, another movie trying to be Wedding Crashers and failing to recognize that style of comedy is on the way out. While I wasn't entirely wrong about what kind of movie it is, I was surprised by a) how genuinely funny and clever it is, and b) how uniquely 2016 it is. The star-studded cast all deliver strong performances, so if you thought Adam Devine is funny in Workaholics, or liked Aubrey Plaza's April in Parks and Recreation, or think Zac Efron or Anna Kendrick are gorgeous, then this movie has something for you (don't worry guys, Anna quickly gets rid of the awful bangs look she sports in the first few scenes). This film is extremely self-aware, and generates real comedy by subverting cliched character archetypes and situational expectations. It opens with a classic "look how much fun these beautiful people are having!" montage, but then quickly flips the script on that exact trope in hilarious fashion. It directly addresses the obvious parallels it has to Wedding Crashers, and characters discuss the cheesy soundtrack choices you would expect in a movie of this type. Perhaps best of all, Mike and Dave avoids the trap that a lot of comedies fall into, where they pack a bunch of laughs into the first half of the movie and then spend far too much time wrapping up the plot (looking at you, Wedding Crashers, 40 Year Old Virgin, Neighbors...). This film knows that the audience is there to laugh, and spreads its jokes throughout without worrying too much about the plot. Some of the ads I've seen have made a big deal about how this is based on a true story, but honestly I have no idea why, because comedy audiences don't care and it seems like neither did the people who made this film. Mike and Dave knows that its only job is to be funny, and it delivers.
Being funny is enough to make Mike and Dave entertaining, but it doesn't make it good. However, I would argue that this is actually a capital G Good movie, because it reflects the cultural moment in which it is created and has something to say about American culture in 2016. This more than anything was what made Mike and Dave a pleasant shock: it is remarkably feminist. If you've only seen the commercials, you're probably rolling your eyes right now, but hear me out. This film is ostensibly about two dudes, but in actuality most of the action is driven by the female characters. The women are more roguish than Mike and Dave, and they create the chaos which creates the comedy. While in most Judd Apatow style comedies (and honestly, most movies period) women only exist to motivate the actions/comedy of male characters, that's not how this film plays out at all. If anything, the men are there to facilitate the women's fun. Mike and Dave pulls off a unique trick in contemporary cinema; it is undeniably feminist while not being grotesquely self-congratulatory about it. The feminism of this film is treated as natural, as opposed to films like Neighbors 2 and Bridesmaids, which exclaim "oh look, it's a woman who says swear words and drinks booze! How crazy is that! See, we know women are autonomous and empowered!" At the same time, Mike and Dave isn't preachy. It doesn't shame audiences for being surprised by its feminism, but rather treats the fact that women are the most important characters as normal, something that doesn't need to be commented on. These women were hilarious and the primary drivers of plot, but that wasn't the point of them. The point was, in fact, that these women are assholes, as are the men who act in the same self-absorbed fashion. In the end, Mike and Dave doesn't congratulate its wacky protagonists for the hijinks they create, or hold them up as examples to be followed. Instead, it excoriates the way they act, and drives home the point that this is NOT how people, or movies, should behave. That message is the true surprise of Mike and Dave, and it's what enabled me to leave the theater without any guilt over how much fun I just had. Go with your significant other, go with your friends, hell even go with your parents; just go see this film.
