Red Sox Tigers Preview

After a frustrating 4 game split with the Twins, the Red Sox close out their homestand with 3 games against the Tigers. After this series, Boston will be headed out west for an 11 game road trip, so winning these games will be important to build some momentum. Plus, every game counts in the 3 way dogfight for the AL East. Let's break this series down.

Venue: Fenway Park

Opponent: Detroit Tigers

Record: 51-48, 2nd place in the AL Central, 6.0 back of the Indians

Recent Results: 5-5 (split 4 at White Sox, lost 2-3 vs twins, won 2-3 vs royals)

Run Differential: -6, 8th in AL

Team ERA: 4.44, 12th in AL 

Runs Per Game: 4.6, 7th in AL

As you can see from these numbers, the Tigers are the definition of mediocre in 2016. They don't score a ton of runs, and the pitching staff that was the driving force behind much of their success in recent years has fallen off dramatically this season. These are the kind of teams that the Sox have to take advantage of, especially when they come to Fenway. However, the Tigers do have some dangerous players to keep an eye on.

Players to Watch

Miguel Cabrera went to his 7th consecutive All-Star game this season, and has been one of the best (if not THE best) hitters in all of baseball for years. He has had the highest batting average in the AL for 4 of the past 5 seasons, and won back-to-back MVP awards in 2012-13. At 33, he is at the tail end of his prime, and is showing his age a bit this season: he is hitting .295, which would be his worst average in a full season since 2008, and his power numbers have fallen off a bit as well. That being said, he is still a legit middle of the order threat, and the Sox pitchers need to tread lightly with right-handed power at Fenway.

Ian Kinsler is another aging star in the middle of the Detroit order, a guy who you probably wouldn't want if you were building for the future. However, we aren't concerned with the Tigers roster construction at this point, and Kinsler remains one of the best hitting second basemen in the game as it stands today. He has belted 20 HR on the season, with a .294 average.

Francisco Rodriguez is the Tigers closer, so hopefully we won't be seeing him this series. K-Rod is another star past his prime, but he is still throwing gas at 34 years old and getting guys out. He has converted 27 of 29 save chances this year, with an ERA of 2.80 and 36 K's in 35 innings. While the Red Sox lineup can score against anyone, it would be better to not wait around until K-Rod is in the game.

If anything, looking at this Tigers roster makes me worried for the future of the Red Sox organization; current Sox personnel man Dave Dombrowski built this Tigers team by buying high on free agents and trading away prospects for established players, and while they had some success, they did not win a world series with DD at the helm. Now they are a bunch of guys past their prime with little ability to rebuild on the fly, and I fear that Dombrowski is already taking the Sox down that road. Whatever, that's a problem for Future Me. Lets get to the pitching matchups.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Monday, 7:10 EST): Drew Pomeranz vs Justin Verlander

     Pomeranz had a rough outing in his Red Sox debut, getting knocked out in the 4th inning by the Giants. The thing to watch from Drew in this game is his curveball, which is his best pitch and the one he uses the most according to FanGraphs. The problem is, he didn't have it working in his first Red Sox start, and once the Giants recognized that they jumped all over him. Pomeranz uses his curve as a strikeou/finishing pitch, and he really needs it working in order to have success against Detroit.

    

    From 2009-13, Justin Verlander was among the most feared pitchers in baseball, throwing upper 90s gas with a plethora of devastating off-speed pitches. Then he started dating Kate Upton in 2014, and his numbers fell off a cliff. Maybe he had something(s) distracting him. However, since his start in July of last season at Fenway, he has really turned things around. Although he isn't dominating like he once was, a 3.74 ERA with 139 Ks in 132 IP this year are solid stats. At 33 years old, Verlander's fastball velocity is down a tick from his prime, but at 93 MPH on average he can still make you respect the fastball. He still has 3 above average offspeed pitches, with a slider, changeup and curveball that he will throw in any count. He is a tough opponent to face, and a good challenge for the Red Sox offense.

Game 2 (Tuesday, 7:10 EST): Steven Wright vs Mike Pelfrey

     Steven Wright continues to confound the MLB with his dancing knuckleball. He didn't get to pitch in the All-Star game, which would have been oh so fun, but his numbers are plenty enough to get him the national attention that he deserves. With a 2.67 ERA, he has been the unquestioned ace of the Sox staff, and he is coming off of 8 dominant innings against the Twins. 

     Mike Pelfrey is a 32 year old vet with 10 years of MLB experience, but he is little more than a replacement level player. He has a 4.78 ERA in 105 innings this year, and has averaged just over 5 innings per start. He relies heavily on his sinker, which can be effective at producing ground ball outs when it's working and effective at producing long home runs when it's not. One thing to note is that Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez all have terrible career numbers against Pelfrey, so the offense may have to come from other sources in this one. 

Game 3 (Wednesday, 1:35 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Michael Fulmer

     E-Rod has been mostly injured and disappointingly awful this year, but there is reason to believe he may have finally figured things out. He was sent back to Pawtucket at the end of June after getting shelled by the Rays, but he's gotten another chance at the big league level since the All-Star Break, and has made the most of it. He threw 7 innings of 1 run ball against the Yankees, and then followed it up by striking out 8 Twins in 5.1 innings while giving up just 2 runs. He appears to have conquered his pitch-tipping issues, and is controlling his slider much better than we have seen all year. However, I am still skeptical, mostly because both the Yankees and Twins have been awful offensively. The Tigers are not exactly the '27 Yankees, but I think they are a better measuring stick for Rodriguez's progress. He will need to pitch well, because the Tigers are opposing him with a stud.

     Michael Fulmer was the centerpiece of the trade between the Tigers and the Mets that sent Yeonis Cespedes to New York, so its clear that Detroit valued him highly. 2016 is his rookie season, but he is already exceeding those expectations by every measure. In 15 starts, Fulmer has posted an ERA of 2.41, with 81 Ks in 89 IP. He already has 4 fully developed, plus-level pitches (fastball, two-seamer, slider, changeup), and he throws straight fire. His average fastball is 95 MPH, and he regularly hits 98 when he needs to. His two seamer averages 94 MPH, with sideways movement. That's just unfair. He's going to be an ace for years to come, and the Tigers are definitely going to look back on that trade with a smile. 

Prediction: The Tigers are throwing their two good starters in this series, and the Red Sox are opposing them with two question marks. While I'm confident the Sox will win the middle game of the series, they are going to have to take advantage of every opportunity on offense and get an outstanding performance from either E-Rod or Pomeranz to win the series. I think they will do it, but only because they are playing at Fenway. Boston to win 2-3