Red Sox Road Trip Recap

     The Sox went 7-4 on their 11 game road trip through Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit and Tampa. The trip started off fantastically with 3 wins over playoff contenders Cleveland and, more importantly, Baltimore. The Sox then split four games series with the Tigers and Rays, stumbling a bit towards the finish thanks to some mismanagement from John Farrell.

The Good:

The Standings. 

Coming into Friday, the Sox were tied with Toronto for 1st place, 1 game up on Baltimore. It's been awhile, but the Sox are back on top, at least for the moment. 

Starting Pitching. 

The Sox have gotten fantastic starting pitching for most of this month, with David Price returning to dominance (until the 8th inning, every time). Rick Porcello continues to pitch tough, and is the most consistently dependable arm on the Sox staff this year. Hell, even John Farrell's decision to get Steven Wright hurt by using him as a pinch runner hasn't derailed this rotation. Clay Buccholz has stepped up in a big way, delivering back to back outings with 6 IP 1 Run. 

Andrew Benintendi is DOPE

The Rookie has 22 hits in 68 at bats since coming up from the minors, and he has been even better in the last week, with 4 extra base hits, including his first career home run. 

Oh and he also made this INSANE catch in the 8th inning of a 3-0 game. 

Dustin Pedroia Keeps Grinding

He has hit .370 over the last week, raising his year long average to .310. He also has 30 doubles and 12 HR on the season, so he has been flashing some of the power that made him an MVP candidate a few seasons ago. He also plays fantastic defense at and up the middle position, and runs the bases well. He has a 4.8 WAR, which is 20th best in baseball, and doesn't include the value of his clubhouse leadership. 

David Ortiz Hit 4 More Homers

He now has 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 40 doubles on the season. Its August, and he's 40. A-Rod is retired right now. Life is Good.

Sandy Leon: I think he's For Real?

When he first came up and started off red hot, everyone (myself included) wrote him off as simply on a random streak of success. Well, he's now played in 49 games, and he's hitting .369. And honestly, I don't think it's the result of luck. He has hit over 70% of his balls in play hard or medium according to Fangraphs, which means he is making solid contact. He does pull the ball a lot, which has enabled opposing managers to get him out more often by using a shift. However, I have started to believe in the Sox needle-in-a-haystack starting catcher. 

The Bad

John Farrell is Still Clueless

The Red Sox are succeeding right now, but they continue to blow winnable games late, which is where managers can really make the difference with in game decisions. Recently, Farrell has made a habit of trying to stretch successful starters as long as possible. This usually means Price or Porcello pitching into the 8th inning, which almost never goes well. If you get 7 strong innings, and the starter is over 100 pitches, go to the bullpen. Just don't push it, especially in the regular season. 2 of the Sox losses on his roadtrip were caused by 8th inning meltdowns. 

A big part of the reason Farrell struggles with late game situations is his inability to identify his 8th inning guy in the bullpen. Junichi Tazawa has been downright awful this year, and nobody has really stepped up to take his slot. Carson Smith was supposed to be that guy, but he got hurt. Same for Koji Uehara, although he might be back as early as next week. The Sox traded for Brad Ziegler, and he has had some lockdown outings but has also blown a couple games. I don't feel super comfortable with him. Farrell has been going with Matt Barnes in the 8th recently, basically with the thinking that since he throws really hard he is a good reliever. While that's not a terrible idea, Barnes has a lot of trouble walking people, and the Sox simply can't afford to have him not know where the ball is going in a big time stretch run game.  Hopefully Uehara can come back and continue to defy Father Time to solve this problem for everyone. 

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly From the Red Sox West Coast Trip

The Red Sox returned home to Boston last night after an exhausting road trip that saw them play 11 games in as many days, against the Angels, Mariners and Dodgers. They finished the trip with a 5-6 record, which is not a disaster but is certainly worse than they were hoping for.

The Good

Starting pitching

 The Sox have had the best offense in baseball all season long, but have been held back by their pitching staff. However, this trip gave me hope on that front, as the Sox starters were actually pretty good throughout the road trip. Boston got a quality start (5+ innings, 3 runs or less) in 8 of the 11 games, with every member of the rotation recording at least one. They got 3 complete games (2 from Porcello, 1 from Wright). David Price pitched like an ace in 2 of his 3 starts, throwing 16 consecutive shutout innings at one point. With Boston's offense, pitching like this should be good enough to get them to the playoffs.

Dustin Pedroia's Game Winner

In the final game of the Angels series, Boston trailed 3-0 entering the 9th, before being saved by Petey's two out, 3 run bomb that took the lead and halted a major skid. 

Game 4 vs Seattle

The Sox won, 3-2, in 11 innings. It was a gutsy win, driven by contributions from the entire roster. Drew Pomeranz pitched 6 solid innings, giving up 2 runs. Travis Shaw hit his 13th HR, and 8 different Sox recorded a hit. The bullpen had 5 guys combine to throw 5 scoreless innings. The bottom of the order provided the winning run, with Brock Holt providing the game winning hit.

Andrew Benintendi

Benintendi and Yoan Moncada are 1 and 1A in the Red Sox prospects rankings, and are among the best prospects in all of baseball. The team considered them untouchable at the trade deadline, even for an ace pitcher like Chris Sale. Benintendi is another young stud outfielder, and he was brought up to the big league club to play left field. LF has been the biggest problem spot in the lineup for the Sox this year, as they have cycled through a number of guys (Chris Young, Brock Holt, Bryce Brentz, Blake Swihart, Rusney Castillo) trying to find someone to hold down the spot. Benintendi has drawn comparisons to Fred Lynn, and he looked like it in his first showing in the majors. Andrew is 5-13, with 2 RBI, 1 run and a stolen base. If he can continue to produce, he will solidify himself as the final piece of the core of the Red Sox future, along with Bradley, Betts, and Bogaerts (the Killer B's?).

Craig Kimbrel is back

When news broke that Kimbrel would be going under the knife for arthroscopic knee surgery, projections had him missing anywhere from 3-6 weeks. He was back in 3 weeks and 2 days. More importantly, he is fully healthy, with 2 scoreless appearances and 6 strikeouts since returning. His presence steadies the back end of the bullpen, and enables John Farrell to use guys in roles they are comfortable in rather than stretching middle relievers into setup men and setup men into closers. 

The Bad

5-6

Let's start with the most obvious; the Sox had a losing record on a road trip where they played 8 games against non-contenders. They are now just 26-25 on the road this year, with 30 of their remaining 52 games away from Fenway. The AL East is going down to the wire, and it hurts to lose winnable games. It hurts even more because both the Orioles (5-6) the Blue Jays (6-5) have had middling results recently, so the Sox missed an opportunity to gain ground on both their rivals. They are now 2 games behind Toronto and 3 behind Baltimore.

The Bullpen

While the starters were generally good, the Sox bullpen had some troubles. They blew late inning leads against the Angels and Mariners, and allowed the Dodgers to pull away in the final game of the trip. It's too much to expect the bullpen to be perfect, but when you have a lead late the best guys in the pen HAVE to be able to finish those games off. 

Xander Bogaerts Slumping

Boggy was 9-48 at the plate on the road trip, for a ghastly .188 batting average. He is hitting .278 since the All-Star Break, and .269 in the last month. In June, I predicted that Bogaerts' high average was going to be unsustainable, and I have been proven correct. Xander's average for the season is down to .317, which is still excellent but nowhere close to the .350 mark he was sporting at midseason. 

The Ugly

Hanley Ramirez' throw

In the first game of the road trip, David Price threw 8 shutout innings and left with a 1-0 lead. Then Brad Ziegler couldn't keep the Angels off the bases, and Han-Ram airmailed a throw home on a potential double play, allowing the tying and winning runs to score. 

Fernando Abad's Debut

While the Sox were mostly quiet at the trade deadline, they did make a move to acquire reliever Fernando Abad from the Minnesota Twins. His first appearance for the Sox came in the 8th inning of game 2 against the Mariners. David Price went 7 shutout innings before running into trouble in the 8th, and Farrell went to Abad with 2 on and 1 out in a 4-2 ballgame. Abad's first batter was Robinson Cano, who did this. 

David Price's Third Start

Price started his road trip with two excellent starts, both of which ended in defeat when the bullpen failed to hold the lead. His third start came in the rubber game of the Dodgers series, with Boston having a chance to take 2 of 3 against a playoff-quality opponent and finish the trip with a winning record. These are the situations when aces dominate. Price... didn't. He went just 5 innings, walked 5 batters, and gave up 6 runs. He didn't have it. This game embodies my concerns with Price; if the Sox don't win the division, they are probably heading to a one game playoff for the Wildcard. Farrell, if he can swing it, will likely go with Price for that game. At this point, I simply don't trust David to come through in big games, and if he's bad in the wildcard game that would be the end of the season.  

Red Sox at Dodgers Preview

     The Red Sox finish up their west coast road trip with three games against the LA Dodgers. Since they are a National League team playing at home, the Sox will not have the benefit of using a DH, which means Farrell has to choose between playing Big Papi in the field or sitting him down for a few games. Given how limited Papi's movement has been this year, I don't think we'll be seeing much of him outside of pinch hitting.

    Also of note is the Yasiel Puig situation for the Dodgers. He stormed out of Cuba and into MLB in 2013 as one of the most exciting players out there. As a 22 year old rookie he posted a WAR of 4.9, which is really good. He followed that up with a 5.3 WAR season in 2014, which is even better. Along the way, he caused a lot of ruffled feathers with his animated play, showboating, and dickheaded behavior, but his play was too good for any of that to matter. Since 2014, Puig has been alternatively injured and ineffective, and this past week the Dodgers told him that he would not be coming on the road with the team, and would either be demoted to the minors or traded. He is still with the team, but it's unclear what the future holds for Puig. Anyway, let's get to the breakdown.  

Venue: Dodger Stadium

Opponent: LA Dodgers

Record: 60-48, 2nd place in the NL West (2 GB of San Francisco)

Recent Results: 4-4 (lost 2-3 at Rockies, won 2 of 3 vs Arizona, split 2 at Rays)

Run Differential: +68, 4th in NL

Team ERA:  3.60, 4th in NL 

Runs Per Game: 4.4, 9th in NL

The Dodgers are a good team, one who will probably be in the playoffs at the end of the day. They have really good pitching, but could definitely be better offensively. They also have the undisputed best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, who is pitching better than '99-'00 Pedro Martinez. That's the highest compliment I can pay a pitcher. 

Players to Watch

SS Corey Seager is a 22 year old rookie phenom who made the All-Star team this year. He is also Kyle Seager's brother, so the Sox will play 7 straight against the Seager family. Corey leads the way offensively for the Dodgers, with 19 HR and a very solid .306/.519/.890 slash line. He's been even better recently, with a .354 batting average since the All-Star break. 

3B Justin Turner is a veteran player who broke out in a big way with the Dodgers in 2014, when he hit .340 in 109 games. He's basically been hitting ever since, and is having a third straight fine season. He has 19 HR, and a .275/.496/.842 slash line that makes him LA's 2nd best hitter. He also looks like this: 

Ginger flow with a mountain beard is a bold choice, Cotton

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Friday, 9:10 EST): Steven Wright vs Scott Kazmir

    Wright has been regressing heavily since the All-Star break. I was skeptical that a magic knuckleballer finding success out of nowhere was sustainable, and I have been proven wright over the last 6 weeks. A lot of people have suggested that his struggles have to do with game conditions; the theory is that Wright struggles to throw his knuckler effectively when his hands are wet, aka when its really hot or raining. I don't know if that theory is correct, but I do know that the forecast is for clear skies and mid-70s temps, so he shouldn't have any wetness issues in this one.

     Scott Kazmir is a guy you might remember from his early career with the Rays, when he was another young star player who Tampa traded because they are poor. Since being traded in 2009, Kazmir has bounced around to several different teams, struggled with a string of injuries, and generally failed to live up to his potential. However, in LA he has recovered his effectiveness, with a 3.10 ERA last season. This year, that number is up to 4.41, although he is striking out a lot more hitters this year (over one per inning). Kazmir is a lefty with 6 different pitches and a lot of movement, so we may not see Ortiz start in this one. However, the Sox do have some guys with success against Kazmir in the past, so they might not need Big Papi's bat. 

Game 2 (Saturday 4:05 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Ross Stripling

     E-Rod has strung together 4 consecutive solid outings, holding his opponents to 3 runs or less every time out in July. He's definitely had his slider working, enabling him to keep hitters off balance. The one thing he's been lacking is the ability to go deep into games; even in his recent run of success, he has only gotten through the sixth inning once. However, if he is the Sox 4th or 5th option, I will take what he's been offering in a heart beat. 

     Ross Stripling is a 26 year old rookie making his 9th career start. He hasn't started a game since May 19th, so this is basically a spot start for the youngster. He has an ERA of 4.14, and doesn't strike many people out. He is a 4 pitch guy, with a curveball, slider and change to go with the heater. He has extremely average velocity, and has to rely on his curveball to get outs. Fortunately for him, his curve has been very good, with opponents hitting just .179 against it this season. I would like to think the Sox will jump all over him, but with their luck lately Stripling will probably throw 8 shutout.

Game 3 (Sunday 7:10 EST): David Price vs TBD

     Price has been excellent in his two starts on the road trip so far, allowing just 4 runs combined in 15 innings. He has been extremely unlucky to not get a win in either start, as the offense failed to back him up. I'm excited to see if he can keep his ace-form going, and hopeful that the Sox will finally score some runs for him. I have no idea who the Dodgers are starting, but it won't be Kershaw, who was just moved to the 60 day DL. Since Clayton won't be on the mound in this one, the Sox will have the edge with Price. 

Prediction: The Sox are a frustrating 4-4 on the trip so far, with a few games in there that they had no business losing. I look at the matchups and I really think Boston has the edge for a series win, perhaps even a sweep. The Sox have the better offense, even with Ortiz as a pinch hitter. Price and E-Rod are better than their counterparts, and Wright might be also. However, I really have the feeling that they will find a way to lose two of three.

Red Sox at Mariners Previews

The Red Sox travel to Seattle for 4 games with the Mariners, who they beat 2 of 3 games at Fenway back in June. They are in 3rd place in the AL East, but just 1.5 games behind first place Baltimore. We're into the final 3rd of the season starting today, and we've passed the trade deadline so the team today is what we're going forwards with. Let's get to the preview.

Venue: Safeco Field (yeah, it is named after a grocery store)

Opponent: Seattle Mariners

Record: 52-51, 3rd place in the AL West (8.5 games behind Texas)

Recent Results: 4-4 (lost 2-3 at Cubs, split 2 at Pittsburgh , won 2-3 at Toronto)

They also blew a 6 run lead yesterday before losing in the 12th on a walk off bunt by Jon Lester

Run Differential: +31, 5th in AL

Team ERA: 4.09, 5th in AL 

Runs Per Game: 4.7, 7th in AL

Players to Watch

2B Robinson Cano is the best hitter in this lineup and the unquestioned leader of the Mariners. He started in the All-Star game for a reason; he has 23 HR, and is hitting .298 with a .525 Slugging% and a .882 OPS. He hits for power and average in the middle of the order, but is significantly worse (.270/.417/.741) against left-handed pitchers. The Red Sox will be starting two lefties this series.

DH Nelson Cruz has been a bit of a boom or bust hitter for most of his career, but this year he has been more consistent without losing much power. He leads the Mariners with 26 HR, which is tied for 4th most in the American League. Cruz has power to all fields, but he can be contained if the Sox can keep the ball down, as his heat map indicates.

3B Kyle Seager has been a revelation for Seattle this season. He's been a decent hitter for several seasons now, with 20+ HR in each of the last 4 years. This season, he's already hit 20, so he seems likely to beat his career best of 26. He also is batting .284, which is almost 20 points better than his career high of .268. His development is key for the Mariners future, as they have been trying to put a contender together around their few stars for years now. 

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Monday, 10:10 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs James Paxton

     E-Rod has been much better in his 3 starts since the All-Star break. He has allowed 6 runs all together in 17.2 IP, no more than 3 in any start. He's locating his pitches much more effectively, and seems to have rediscovered his confidence in his slider. That slider is the key to the whole package for Eduardo, as he can't be effective with just his fastball and changeup. I don't expect him to be dominant, but if he can throw strikes and keep the ball down, he should be solid enough.

     Paxton has been up and down from the Mariners minor league system for the past 3 seasons, and has not done much to impress. He is essentially a replacement level pitcher, as his 0.1 WAR this year reflects. He relies heavily on his fastball, which is his only above average pitch. It averages 97 MPH, and he can hit triple digits when he needs to. He also can throw it as a cutter, shaving some heat off it while adding some movement. Paxton needs to work on his offspeed offerings (knucklecurve/changeup), which he really hasn't shown the confidence to use frequently or effectively. I think the Sox won't have too much trouble against him.

Game 2 (Tuesday, 10:10 EST): David Price vs Wade LeBlanc

    Price is coming off his best start of the season, shutting out the Angels for 8 innings. He had everything going in that one, and was consistently dotting the glove with all his offerings. He hasn't been the ace the Sox paid for this season, but if he can build off his most recent outing and put together a dominant stretch run, all will be forgiven. He faced the Mariners in June, and gave up just 1 run over 8 innings, so they seem like a good matchup for him.

     Wade LeBlanc made his MLB debut in 2008, but I won't blame you if you've never heard of him. I had no idea who is either. He's pitched more than 100 MLB innings in a season exactly once, back in 2010, and he has only 25 IP in 4 starts this season. He has literally nothing impressive in his arsenal, and has a 0.2 WAR this year. This is another guy the Sox should have no trouble with. 

Game 3 (Wednesday, 10:10 EST): Rick Porcello vs Hisashi Iwakuma

     Porcello has been arguably the ace of the Boston staff this year. He's been the most consistent guy in the rotation, and the guy the Sox turn to to stop losing streaks as he did with a complete game last time out vs the Angels. In that start, he retired 21 of the last 23 batters he faced, so I'd say that was dominating. I think it's unfair to expect him to be quite that good again, but I do think he will keep the Mariners in check and pitch deep into the game. He gave up 2 runs on 6 innings against Seattle in June, so indications are good here again. 

     Hisashi Iwakuma is the #2 in the Mariners rotation, behind only Felix Hernandez. The Japanese veteran is showing his age a bit in his 35-year-old season, as his ERA has ballooned to a career high 4.21. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, but like other Japanese pitchers he throws 6 different pitches with a variety of movement and velocity. He can be highly deceptive, and he has good control so he doesn't help you out with a lot of walks. When he faced Boston back in June, he went 7 innings and allowed 4 runs, so solid but not oustanding. I think this will probably be the best game of the series. 

Game 4 (Thursday, 10:10 EST): Steven Wright vs TBD

     Wright has had problems in the hot and wet conditions, and has certainly regressed quite a bit since the All-Star break. While he was basically unhitable in the first half, he has been more of a league average pitcher in his last 7 starts. I don'r know what to expect from him in this one, but unless he is facing Felix I would give the edge to the Red Sox offense

Prediction: The Red Sox should have a significant edge in the pitching matchups of each of the first two games, and have a much better offense than the Mariners. If we don't see King Felix in this series, I think the Sox will win at least 3 games. Given the Sox propensity for blowing games they should win recently, I can easily see them getting just a split here, but I don't think it will be any worse than that. Red Sox win 3 of 4. 

Dustin Pedroia Plays Hero as Sox Salvage Split

Entering the 9th inning yesterday, the Sox trailed 3-0. They had lost 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 9, many in frustrating, brutal fashion. They were headed for a humiliating series defeat at the hands of a dead last place team. Their offense had been completely absent all day, and their manager had already been ejected. 

But then, just as the playoffs seemed to be a fading prospect, things began to turn. JBJ worked a walk. Aaron Hill blooped a single. With 2 outs, Mookie Betts roped a base hit to right center, scoring Jackie Baseball and extending the game. Then, as broadcaster Dave O'Brien was talking about how Angels closer Houston Street likes to throw the kind of high strikes that Dustin Pedroia hits so well, Street grooved a fastball that Petey crushed. Dustin may be diminutive, but he had no doubt that this one was gone, to dead centerfield no less. Before the crowd could figure out what happened, Xander Bogaerts followed up with his own blast to left. 5-3 Boston. 

Brad Ziegler shut the door in the 9th, which was a nice result after two straight losing efforts from the Sox 3rd choice closer. So, the Sox get a four game split with Anaheim, which isn't a terrible start to the road trip. Oh, and they also activated Craig Kimbrel from the DL today, and Blake Swihart could be back as soon as next week. Reinforcements are on the way, and things are looking up.

One last note, the Sox sent Joe Kelly down to Pawtucket to make room for Kimbrel, which means that Clay Buccholz has won the competition to fill the middle/long relief spot in the Sox bullpen. I definitely don't love him in that role, but Kelly has been awful and Clay has been decent there, and it's certainly better than having ether of them start. On to Seattle!