The Red Sox travel to Seattle for 4 games with the Mariners, who they beat 2 of 3 games at Fenway back in June. They are in 3rd place in the AL East, but just 1.5 games behind first place Baltimore. We're into the final 3rd of the season starting today, and we've passed the trade deadline so the team today is what we're going forwards with. Let's get to the preview.
Venue: Safeco Field (yeah, it is named after a grocery store)
Opponent: Seattle Mariners
Record: 52-51, 3rd place in the AL West (8.5 games behind Texas)
Recent Results: 4-4 (lost 2-3 at Cubs, split 2 at Pittsburgh , won 2-3 at Toronto)
They also blew a 6 run lead yesterday before losing in the 12th on a walk off bunt by Jon Lester
Run Differential: +31, 5th in AL
Team ERA: 4.09, 5th in AL
Runs Per Game: 4.7, 7th in AL
Players to Watch
2B Robinson Cano is the best hitter in this lineup and the unquestioned leader of the Mariners. He started in the All-Star game for a reason; he has 23 HR, and is hitting .298 with a .525 Slugging% and a .882 OPS. He hits for power and average in the middle of the order, but is significantly worse (.270/.417/.741) against left-handed pitchers. The Red Sox will be starting two lefties this series.
DH Nelson Cruz has been a bit of a boom or bust hitter for most of his career, but this year he has been more consistent without losing much power. He leads the Mariners with 26 HR, which is tied for 4th most in the American League. Cruz has power to all fields, but he can be contained if the Sox can keep the ball down, as his heat map indicates.
3B Kyle Seager has been a revelation for Seattle this season. He's been a decent hitter for several seasons now, with 20+ HR in each of the last 4 years. This season, he's already hit 20, so he seems likely to beat his career best of 26. He also is batting .284, which is almost 20 points better than his career high of .268. His development is key for the Mariners future, as they have been trying to put a contender together around their few stars for years now.
Pitching Matchups
Game 1 (Monday, 10:10 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs James Paxton
E-Rod has been much better in his 3 starts since the All-Star break. He has allowed 6 runs all together in 17.2 IP, no more than 3 in any start. He's locating his pitches much more effectively, and seems to have rediscovered his confidence in his slider. That slider is the key to the whole package for Eduardo, as he can't be effective with just his fastball and changeup. I don't expect him to be dominant, but if he can throw strikes and keep the ball down, he should be solid enough.
Paxton has been up and down from the Mariners minor league system for the past 3 seasons, and has not done much to impress. He is essentially a replacement level pitcher, as his 0.1 WAR this year reflects. He relies heavily on his fastball, which is his only above average pitch. It averages 97 MPH, and he can hit triple digits when he needs to. He also can throw it as a cutter, shaving some heat off it while adding some movement. Paxton needs to work on his offspeed offerings (knucklecurve/changeup), which he really hasn't shown the confidence to use frequently or effectively. I think the Sox won't have too much trouble against him.
Game 2 (Tuesday, 10:10 EST): David Price vs Wade LeBlanc
Price is coming off his best start of the season, shutting out the Angels for 8 innings. He had everything going in that one, and was consistently dotting the glove with all his offerings. He hasn't been the ace the Sox paid for this season, but if he can build off his most recent outing and put together a dominant stretch run, all will be forgiven. He faced the Mariners in June, and gave up just 1 run over 8 innings, so they seem like a good matchup for him.
Wade LeBlanc made his MLB debut in 2008, but I won't blame you if you've never heard of him. I had no idea who is either. He's pitched more than 100 MLB innings in a season exactly once, back in 2010, and he has only 25 IP in 4 starts this season. He has literally nothing impressive in his arsenal, and has a 0.2 WAR this year. This is another guy the Sox should have no trouble with.
Game 3 (Wednesday, 10:10 EST): Rick Porcello vs Hisashi Iwakuma
Porcello has been arguably the ace of the Boston staff this year. He's been the most consistent guy in the rotation, and the guy the Sox turn to to stop losing streaks as he did with a complete game last time out vs the Angels. In that start, he retired 21 of the last 23 batters he faced, so I'd say that was dominating. I think it's unfair to expect him to be quite that good again, but I do think he will keep the Mariners in check and pitch deep into the game. He gave up 2 runs on 6 innings against Seattle in June, so indications are good here again.
Hisashi Iwakuma is the #2 in the Mariners rotation, behind only Felix Hernandez. The Japanese veteran is showing his age a bit in his 35-year-old season, as his ERA has ballooned to a career high 4.21. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, but like other Japanese pitchers he throws 6 different pitches with a variety of movement and velocity. He can be highly deceptive, and he has good control so he doesn't help you out with a lot of walks. When he faced Boston back in June, he went 7 innings and allowed 4 runs, so solid but not oustanding. I think this will probably be the best game of the series.
Game 4 (Thursday, 10:10 EST): Steven Wright vs TBD
Wright has had problems in the hot and wet conditions, and has certainly regressed quite a bit since the All-Star break. While he was basically unhitable in the first half, he has been more of a league average pitcher in his last 7 starts. I don'r know what to expect from him in this one, but unless he is facing Felix I would give the edge to the Red Sox offense
Prediction: The Red Sox should have a significant edge in the pitching matchups of each of the first two games, and have a much better offense than the Mariners. If we don't see King Felix in this series, I think the Sox will win at least 3 games. Given the Sox propensity for blowing games they should win recently, I can easily see them getting just a split here, but I don't think it will be any worse than that. Red Sox win 3 of 4.
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