NFL Divisional Round Picks

This is it, folks. After a long season filled with, let's be honest, a shitload of incredibly mediocre matchups, we now have just 7 football games left. The good news? They're all going to be awesome. We've separated the wheat from the chaff, now its time to bake some fucking bread. Let's get to it. 

Seahawks at Falcons (-4.5)

After the generally crap Wild Card round last weekend, this weekend starts off with one helluva matchup. These two teams played each other in Seattle back in Week 6, with the Seahawks winning 26-24 when the refs missed a blatant pass interference on Julio Jones that killed the Falcons game winning drive. Seriously, what Richard Sherman does here is the DEFINITION of pass interference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxrNZYJnJsE

The most exciting part of this game is the matchup between the Seahawks defense, which is in the midst of a historically good 4 year run, and the Falcons offense, which scored 540 points this year, tied for 7th-most all time. I think the Falcons will win that matchup.

Last week, I broke down how the Earl Thomas injury hurts the Seahawks defense, but we didn't see many of those effects in their 26-6 throttling of the Lions. Detroit is absolutely awful at running the ball, so the Seahawks were able to concentrate on stopping the pass. Instead of having their strong safety play closer to the line of scrimmage (as they usually do in their Cover 3 defense), Pete Carroll used a lot of Cover 2, with two safeties covering deep downfield. This alignment enabled Seattle to completely contain the Lions' offense.

Unfortunately, that plan probably won't work against Atlanta. While Julio Jones and Matt Ryan get most of the media attention, the Falcons offense actually starts with how well they use their running backs, both as runners and receivers. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 2,482 yards from scrimmage and 24 TDs this season, which is a ludicrous level of production. If you don't stop those guys, the Falcons will light your team on fire and watch it burn. 

One of the best parts of the Seahawks cover 3 scheme is that it works very well against the run, because there are so many defenders in the box near the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, with Thomas sidelined, the Seahawks will have Steven Tarrell covering the entire deep middle of the field by himself if they play Cover 3. This is an extremely dangerous plan, because... 

So Pete Carroll finds himself with a tough choice: focus on the running backs and risk getting torched over the middle, or devote resources to covering the pass and get killed by the running backs? The Seahawks might try to reprogram the Kobayashi Maru by having Richard Sherman shadow Jones, but that would involve completely redesigning their entire defense in just a single week. 

I don't think the Seahawks will be able to stop the Falcons offense, particularly in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. So, in order for Seattle to win, they are going to need to outscore Matt Ryan and Co. Russell Wilson is really good, and the Falcons defense is not, so they do have a chance. However, the Seahawks are dealing with a handful of injuries at running back and wide receiver, and they still don't have a single above average offensive lineman. That last one is going to be the biggest issue, because the Falcons have defensive end Vic Beasley, who is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. This game will be close, because it usually is when Seattle is involved, but I don't see this injury depleted Seahawks team sticking with the Falcons in Atlanta.

Bonus Thing to Watch: the music in the stadium. (H/T Kellen Sanger)

Russell Wilson is married to Ciara. Ciara has a son from a previous relationship with Atlanta-based rapper Future. Russell Wilson is reportedly very sensitive about this, and has banned any Future songs from being played in the Seahawks facilities. So, of course, the Georgia Dome DJ plans to play nothing but Future during the game. Frankly, the Falcons should extend that to the pre-game warmups, in the visitors locker room, in Seahawks' hotel, etc...  

I don't think this will actually effect the game, but its worth noting nonetheless because it serves as a nice reminder that: 

The Pick: FALCONS (-4.5) over Seahawks

 Texans at Patriots (-16)

Remember how I said all the remaining football games were going to be awesome? I may have fibbed a little bit. I mean, this game will probably be awesome for me because I abandoned the way of the Jedi to study under The Hooded One, but still. I may have told a little white lie. 

Star Wars ends very differently if someone tells Darth Vader to just "Do Your Job"

This is another rematch: in week 3, the Patriots demolished Houston 27-0 in Foxborough, despite starting injured 3rd string rookie QB Jacoby Brissett. That's a completely absurd sentence when you consider it in the context of a playoff preview. Obviously, having Tom Brady back will only widen the chasm between these two sides. It's really hard to envision the Texans winning this game, but let's talk about my nightmare scenario anyway. 

Over the years, we've seen a couple of teams unlock the code to beating New England. Its all about the defense, where you need to stuff the run, consistently pressure Brady without blitzing, and play lockdown coverage on the Pats top targets. If you can do that, your offense doesn't have to score 50; you can simply control the ball a bit, put together a couple drives, and score 20 points in an ugly 20-17 type game. That's what Denver did, that's what the Giants did twice (fuck me), and it's the Texans only hope. But can Houston put together a game that looks like that?

I would say yes, they have they pieces to make that kind of game happen. They gave up the fewest total yards of any team in the NFL this season. Jadeveon Clowney has finally emerged as the Apex Predator we thought he would be when he was drafted #1 overall, and he is joined on the defensive line by massive human/stud defender Whitney Mercilus. Ex-Patriot Vince Wilfork and linebackers Brian Cushing and Benardrick McKinney are all above average run defenders. Cornerbacks Jonathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson and A.J. Bouye are very capable of sticking with the Pats receivers. QB Brock Osweiler looked a lot better last week, leading a surprisingly effective Texans offense to 27 points against the Raiders. There is a world in which the Texans make this a very competitive game.

I still don't want to bet on him either

Do I think that world is the world I live in? Of course not. You couldn't get me to bet against the Pats this week even if you hooked my nipples up to car batteries. Brock Osweiler may have taken a step last week, but that step was from "literally cannot hope to win with this chump" to "maybe not the worst QB in the entire NFL". The Texans defense is good, but Tom Brady is the greatest QB to ever walk on Planet Earth. The Patriots offensive line has been excellent all season, especially previously-mocked RT Marcus Cannon, who is a 2nd team All-Pro. Bill O'Brien learned everything he knows while studying under Belichick, and he is maybe the 5th best coordinator the Pats have had. None of them have succeeded. But most of all, New England has history on its side. Back in 2012, the upstart Texans brought their 11-1 record into a week 14 game against the Patriots on Monday Night Football. They lost 42-14, dropped 2 of their final 3 games, and lost to New England 41-28 in the playoffs. Belichick killed the Texans that night and buried them in a shallow grave. Tom Brady took the Texans' mother out for a nice seafood dinner and then never called her again. Robert Kraft took a shit on Bob McNair's hardwood desk. This game is going to be a blowout.

The Pick: PATRIOTS (-16) over Texans

Steelers at Chiefs (-1.5)

Fuck me sideways, this game is hard to pick. I'm going to make the case for both sides, and see which is more persuasive. 

Steelers Case:

1. These teams played already, in Week 4, at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers won 43-14. 

It was 36-0 after the 3rd quarter. You need some really persuasive evidence that this game will be different if you want to pick the Chiefs.

2. The first thing to look at in any playoff game is the quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger vs Alex Smith is like Bill Clinton vs Aging; its no contest.

(Seriously, have you seen that guy? He's a zombie)

3. The Chiefs defense is not at full strength for this game. Justin Houston will likely play because he is a warrior, but he was limited all week in practice so he won't be in full Angry Wildebeast Mode as a pass rusher. Perhaps even more devastating is the loss of linebacker Derrick Johnson, the Chiefs' best run defender. Kansas City needs all the help they can get, because they ranked 26th against the run this season, giving up an average of 121 yards per game on the ground.  

4, Le'Veon Bell is one of the best players in the entire NFL, and he's just out here killing teams. He has had at least 100 yards from scrimmage in 12 of 13 games he's played in. If anyone can feast on a weak rushing defense, it's this guy. His patience before picking a running lane is literally unprecedented in the NFL, and he could completely dominate this game.

5. If the Chiefs want to stop Bell, they may have to bring strong safety Eric Berry down into the box, especially on 1st and 2nd down. If that happens, Big Ben will jump on the chance to go deep to Antonio Brown or one of the cavalcade of other random young receivers in Pittsburgh's arsenal.   

6. Playoff Andy Reid is a fucking idiot.

My mustache saves the sauce!

Chiefs Case:

1. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be going absolutely apeshit for this game. The Chiefs haven't had a home playoff game since 2010. They haven't won one since 1993. Arrowhead is a notoriously difficult place to play under normal circumstances, so we'll see how well Big Ben does operating with a jet engine roaring in his earholes.

2. The past few years, Kansas City has been held back by their inability to make big plays on offense. This year, they have discovered a double solution to that problem: Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Kelce has developed into an absolute animal, perhaps one of the most underrated players in the NFL. He can block, run, catch, break tackles, and beat coverage. He's basically Gronk with less physical dominance and fewer injuries. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill beat the shit out of his pregnant girlfriend while at Oklahoma State.

On Sunday you'll probably hear a lot more about what a game-breaker he is as a kick returner, receiver, and occasional running back.

3. The Chiefs still have some great playmakers on defense too. DT Dontari Poe, CB Marcus Peters and SS Eric Berry are three of the best players at their positions in the entire league. 

Hill is a piece of shit, but Eric Berry beat cancer

Berry is one of the most versatile defenders in the league, capable of making a difference both in the box and in the secondary. Peters can (and likely will) shadow Brown all game long. The Chiefs have been an opportunistic defense all season, thriving on creating turnovers and causing havoc in key situations. Speaking of which...

4. Ben Roethlisberger has shown a tendency to throw a couple of balls up for grabs every game. The Chiefs playmakers will definitely have some chances to impact this game.

5. Big Ben is a much different QB on the road:

Home: 70.8% completion, 8.5 YPA, 20 TD, 5 INT

Away: 59.4% completion, 6.7 YPA, 9 TD, 8 INT    

That's a real difference! Once again, Roethlisberger will be playing with a jet engine roaring in his earholes. 

6. The Chiefs have made a real habit out of pulling games out of their assholes all season long.

7. Kansas City had a bye week last week. Andy Reid is 14-3 in his career coming off a bye week, including 3-0 in the playoffs. I have a theory about what's causing this phenomenon: Andy Reid's brain is as fat as he is. It can take us Big Boys awhile to get started, but once we get moving there's no stopping us. Andy Reid's brain just needs an extra week to get revved up, but if you give him that he suddenly remembers he has 3 timeouts per half and comprehends the concept of a 2 minute drill. 

I'll be coaching the Chiefs this weekend

The Pick: CHIEFS (-1.5) over Steelers

Packers at Cowboys (-4.5)

Once again, the NFL correctly scheduled the best game of the weekend for last. I believe the winner of this game will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LI in Houston. This is yet another rematch, with Dallas beating Green Bay in Labeau Field, 30-16, back in Week 6. However, I'm not sure that game will be an appropriate guide for this one; the Packers fumbled five times in that contest, losing three of them. Dallas took an early lead, benefited from a handful of turnovers, and was able to use it's running game to bleed the game out. While that is Jerry Jones's best-case scenario, I don't think it will happen twice in the same season.

Really, there is only one reason to pick the Packers in this game:

Rodgers' Last 7 Games: 70% completion, 290 YPG, 19 TD, 0 INT, 7-0 record.

The Packers obliterated the Giants, the best defense in the playoffs, for 38 points last week. They are going to score when they get the chance. The question is, can the Cowboys offense limit their opportunities?

Dallas' offense is built from the ground up. They have placed an emphasis on investing in the offensive line in recent years, and with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott, the result has been the most dominant rushing attack in the NFL. The ground game has allowed rookie QB Dak Prescott to thrive, working with play action to produce an endless stream of open targets all season long. He has thrown just 17 passes while the Cowboys have been behind this season, indicating that the vast majority of his passes have come in favorable situations for the offense. For all the praise that Prescott has received, it's arguable that he has had the easiest rookie season of all time.

While the Packers have struggled on defense at times this season, most of their issues have been in the secondary. They still have Mike Daniels, one of the best run defenders in the NFL. They still have Clay Matthews, who is at his best as a pass rusher, but has learned to play inside in recent years. If they are struggling to contain Elliott, perhaps they will move him back to middle linebacker. 

This is another incredibly close game. Both teams have multiple avenues to victory, a plan B to go to if plan A fails. In such a tight spot, I tend to take the points. Especially when taking the points also means taking the most talented, Super Bowl winning QB I've ever seen, playing about as well as humanly possible, over taking the squad that's relying on a couple rookies with incredible pressure on their shoulders. 

The Pick: Packers (+4.5) over COWBOYS

Last Week: 3-1

Season:  Who gives a fuck? Its all about the hot streak baby!

The Picks: Wild Card Weekend

The Playoffs are finally here. Let's get right to it. Home team in CAPS

TEXANS (-4) over Raiders

This has the potential to be the worst (best) playoff game ever, featuring the Brocket Launcher vs. Connor Cook, a rookie making his first NFL start in the playoffs. I can't wait. Literally I am so excited for this game I can't even tell you. Both these QBs are less qualified for this than Trump is to be President. You should definitely watch this game. It might get an Emmy nomination for Best Comedy. Just don't gamble on it, because you can't pretend you have any idea what's going to happen. In fact, anyone trying to place a bet on this game should be immediately put into rehab, because they simply can't be trusted with their own wallet. 

That being said, I'm all over the Texans. They have been playing this type of crappy game all year; this is a Thursday Night Football slopfest against the Jaguars. They get 80% of their wins in this exact game every year. The Raiders have played all season as a high flying, exciting passing team. They have no idea how to win with Connor Cook at QB. They know they aren't going anywhere even if they win this game. The Texans have no idea how bad they are. They'll win. 

Oh and by the way, it doesn't matter that the Raiders have Cooper and Crabtree on the outside. Remember when the Cardinals had to start Ryan Lindley in the playoffs in 2014? Their receivers didn't matter either. I remember Connor Cook playing against Alabama last year. Connor Cook is fucking awful. Oh and Raiders LT Donald Penn is out with an injury. Which means....

Clowney gonna FEAST!

The only thing that scares me about this pick is Khalil Mack. He could absolutely ruin my day. Oh also, games like this often come down to special teams play, as field position and a single big play could decide this one. Football Outsiders has Oakland's Special Teams ranked 11th in DVOA.... Houston is 32nd (dead fucking last). As I said, don't bet this game. Gulp.

SEAHAWKS (-8) over Lions

This game is going to be a slaughter. The Lions are fucking terrible. They just are. They lost to the Bears this season. Look it up. Its true. They are completely reliant on the passing game, and they have a quarterback who looks like this...

...and also has torn ligaments in his throwing hand and wears a splint that makes it impossible to bend his middle finger. I'm not so confident in offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's plan of attack.

Now, to be clear, I don't like the Seahawks playoff prospects much either. They haven't figured out how to use Jimmy Graham consistently, they are injured and short on playmakers at RB and WR, and they still can't block anyone unless you only rush two linemen (looking at you, Matt Patricia). They have overcome those problems in the past with no trouble because Russell Wilson is a Virgin Wizard, but this year is different because the Earl Thomas injury is completely devastating to their defense in ways that are pretty much irreparable.

Peter Carroll uses Cover 3 as his base defense, where cornerbacks Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead drop deep and cover the sidelines while Thomas patrols the entire deep middle of the field. This frees up strong safety Kam Chancellor to play closer to the line of scrimmage, where he violently obliterates every receiver and running back he can find. Chancellor playing with the destructive force of an angry rhinoceros allows the linebackers to blitz or play the pass in all kinds of creative ways, as with 8 men in the box the defense has a numbers advantage.

 But with backup safety Steven Terrell in the game, there is a chain reaction along the defense. No other safety can cover the amount of territory Thomas does, so every other defender has to do more. Sherman and Shead have to patrol more ground, making their coverage looser and allowing receivers more space to get open. Chancellor has to play deeper, and the linebackers have to do more to cover his absence underneath. The pass rush doesn't get as much help from the linebackers, so opposing QBs have more time to throw against the weaker coverage. Thomas's injury makes Seattle worse at every level of the defense, and as a result they've dropped to 30th in defensive DVOA in the 4 games since Thomas went down.

All that being said though, the Seahawks are playing at home, where they went 7-1 this season. The Lions finished the season a putrid 27th in offense DVOA and are banking on Holden Taint to regularly beat Richard Sherman to throws from a four fingered guy named Matt. Oh yeah, and the Lions play here:

The Slums of Mumbai

STEELERS (-10) over Dolphins

There has been a lot of buzz about the Dolphins this week, with a lot of people in the media trying to talk themselves into taking Miami. Their case is basically:

1. These two teams played in Week 6, a game that Miami won 30-15.

2. Matt Moore isn't your typical backup QB, and has actually been pretty good. His numbers in 3 games as a starter: 63.4% completion rate, 676 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INT, 2-1 record. On a per game basis, he's really not significantly worse than Ryan Tannehill.

3. Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker are legit weapons who can make plays against a soft Pittsburgh defense. Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards when these two teams played in week 6, and is a legitimate top 10 RB in the NFL. They have playmakers who can control the ball and put up points.

I have to admit, it's a pretty good case, especially considering the line is so high. But allow me to refute it point by point:

1. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee early in that game, dramatically limiting his effectiveness. The Steelers played a clunker on the road, which happens to them a couple times every year. They will be playing at home, where Big Ben is much better, and he will be healthy. They aren't going to fuck up again in the playoffs.

2. While it's true that Moore hasn't been Blake Bortles/Osweiler level bad, he still hasn't been good. Saying he's not a full step down from Tannehill isn't a good endorsement for Miami's chances in this game if you recognize that Ryan Tannehill sucks.

3. Miami has some decent players and will score some points in this game. But the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell, two of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. Bell in particular has been incredible this year, averaging over 100 yards per game (running and receiving) while finishing as a top 3 fantasy running back while missing almost a quarter of the season to suspension. The Dolphins allowed 140.4 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Bell is going to slaughter them.

4. My sources tell me that the Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been consulting with former Steelers WR and notorious Blasian Hines Ward this week. My guess at his gameplan:

Giants (+5) over PACKERS

Eli Manning obviously has an extremely punchable face. But is it even the most punchable from his own Draft Class? The contenders:

Eli Manning:

Ben Roethlisberger:

Phillip Rivers:

Matt Schaub:

It's a tough call, but I have to go with Rivers. Manning is a close second though.

Regardless, the Giants offense is a mess. It basically consists of 7 yard slant routes that Odell Beckham takes 60 yards to the endzone, and a pile of dogshit. Even though Paul Perkins is an exciting looking young running back, the Giants run game is completely ineffective for some reason. Eli Manning continues to be a complete mouth breather who gets away with some truly terrible throws, and always seems to be on the brink of disaster. This is not a good unit. However, the Packers simply don't  have anyone to cover OBJ. Thanks to injuries, Green Bay's cornerback depth chart consists of Damarius Randall, LaDarius Gunter, Quenten Rollins, and Josh Hawkins. Woof. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Odell over 200 yards in this one.

The real reason to choose the Giants is their defense. After finishing 30th in defense last season, the Giants threw a pile of money and free agents, and for once that strategy actually paid off. With additions at every level of the field, New York's D improved to 2nd this season. They haven't allowed 30 points in a game all season, and have held the opposition under 20 points 8 times. They can rush the passer effectively with their front 4, and have excellent man-to-man coverage in the secondary. They were incredibly balanced, finishing 3rd in DVOA against the pass and 4th against the run.

The only reason to pick Green Bay is Aaron Rodgers, who has been a superhero over the past 6 weeks in leading the Pack to the playoffs. That being said, this game is going to be played in single digit weather on a frozen field, and the Giants defense is perfectly constructed to contain the Double Check Attack. I think the Packers receivers will struggle to get open, and the Giants D-Line will get enough pressure to disrupt Rodgers. The Packers might win through some Rodgers magic, but I see this game coming down to a field goal. I'll take the points.