The Playoffs are finally here. Let's get right to it. Home team in CAPS
TEXANS (-4) over Raiders
This has the potential to be the worst (best) playoff game ever, featuring the Brocket Launcher vs. Connor Cook, a rookie making his first NFL start in the playoffs. I can't wait. Literally I am so excited for this game I can't even tell you. Both these QBs are less qualified for this than Trump is to be President. You should definitely watch this game. It might get an Emmy nomination for Best Comedy. Just don't gamble on it, because you can't pretend you have any idea what's going to happen. In fact, anyone trying to place a bet on this game should be immediately put into rehab, because they simply can't be trusted with their own wallet.
That being said, I'm all over the Texans. They have been playing this type of crappy game all year; this is a Thursday Night Football slopfest against the Jaguars. They get 80% of their wins in this exact game every year. The Raiders have played all season as a high flying, exciting passing team. They have no idea how to win with Connor Cook at QB. They know they aren't going anywhere even if they win this game. The Texans have no idea how bad they are. They'll win.
Oh and by the way, it doesn't matter that the Raiders have Cooper and Crabtree on the outside. Remember when the Cardinals had to start Ryan Lindley in the playoffs in 2014? Their receivers didn't matter either. I remember Connor Cook playing against Alabama last year. Connor Cook is fucking awful. Oh and Raiders LT Donald Penn is out with an injury. Which means....
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| Clowney gonna FEAST! |
The only thing that scares me about this pick is Khalil Mack. He could absolutely ruin my day. Oh also, games like this often come down to special teams play, as field position and a single big play could decide this one. Football Outsiders has Oakland's Special Teams ranked 11th in DVOA.... Houston is 32nd (dead fucking last). As I said, don't bet this game. Gulp.
SEAHAWKS (-8) over Lions
This game is going to be a slaughter. The Lions are fucking terrible. They just are. They lost to the Bears this season. Look it up. Its true. They are completely reliant on the passing game, and they have a quarterback who looks like this...
...and also has torn ligaments in his throwing hand and wears a splint that makes it impossible to bend his middle finger. I'm not so confident in offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's plan of attack.
Now, to be clear, I don't like the Seahawks playoff prospects much either. They haven't figured out how to use Jimmy Graham consistently, they are injured and short on playmakers at RB and WR, and they still can't block anyone unless you only rush two linemen (looking at you, Matt Patricia). They have overcome those problems in the past with no trouble because Russell Wilson is a Virgin Wizard, but this year is different because the Earl Thomas injury is completely devastating to their defense in ways that are pretty much irreparable.
Peter Carroll uses Cover 3 as his base defense, where cornerbacks Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead drop deep and cover the sidelines while Thomas patrols the entire deep middle of the field. This frees up strong safety Kam Chancellor to play closer to the line of scrimmage, where he violently obliterates every receiver and running back he can find. Chancellor playing with the destructive force of an angry rhinoceros allows the linebackers to blitz or play the pass in all kinds of creative ways, as with 8 men in the box the defense has a numbers advantage.
But with backup safety Steven Terrell in the game, there is a chain reaction along the defense. No other safety can cover the amount of territory Thomas does, so every other defender has to do more. Sherman and Shead have to patrol more ground, making their coverage looser and allowing receivers more space to get open. Chancellor has to play deeper, and the linebackers have to do more to cover his absence underneath. The pass rush doesn't get as much help from the linebackers, so opposing QBs have more time to throw against the weaker coverage. Thomas's injury makes Seattle worse at every level of the defense, and as a result they've dropped to 30th in defensive DVOA in the 4 games since Thomas went down.
All that being said though, the Seahawks are playing at home, where they went 7-1 this season. The Lions finished the season a putrid 27th in offense DVOA and are banking on Holden Taint to regularly beat Richard Sherman to throws from a four fingered guy named Matt. Oh yeah, and the Lions play here:
STEELERS (-10) over Dolphins
There has been a lot of buzz about the Dolphins this week, with a lot of people in the media trying to talk themselves into taking Miami. Their case is basically:
1. These two teams played in Week 6, a game that Miami won 30-15.
2. Matt Moore isn't your typical backup QB, and has actually been pretty good. His numbers in 3 games as a starter: 63.4% completion rate, 676 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INT, 2-1 record. On a per game basis, he's really not significantly worse than Ryan Tannehill.
3. Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker are legit weapons who can make plays against a soft Pittsburgh defense. Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards when these two teams played in week 6, and is a legitimate top 10 RB in the NFL. They have playmakers who can control the ball and put up points.
I have to admit, it's a pretty good case, especially considering the line is so high. But allow me to refute it point by point:
1. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee early in that game, dramatically limiting his effectiveness. The Steelers played a clunker on the road, which happens to them a couple times every year. They will be playing at home, where Big Ben is much better, and he will be healthy. They aren't going to fuck up again in the playoffs.
2. While it's true that Moore hasn't been Blake Bortles/Osweiler level bad, he still hasn't been good. Saying he's not a full step down from Tannehill isn't a good endorsement for Miami's chances in this game if you recognize that Ryan Tannehill sucks.
3. Miami has some decent players and will score some points in this game. But the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell, two of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. Bell in particular has been incredible this year, averaging over 100 yards per game (running and receiving) while finishing as a top 3 fantasy running back while missing almost a quarter of the season to suspension. The Dolphins allowed 140.4 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Bell is going to slaughter them.
4. My sources tell me that the Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been consulting with former Steelers WR and notorious Blasian Hines Ward this week. My guess at his gameplan:
Giants (+5) over PACKERS
Now, to be clear, I don't like the Seahawks playoff prospects much either. They haven't figured out how to use Jimmy Graham consistently, they are injured and short on playmakers at RB and WR, and they still can't block anyone unless you only rush two linemen (looking at you, Matt Patricia). They have overcome those problems in the past with no trouble because Russell Wilson is a Virgin Wizard, but this year is different because the Earl Thomas injury is completely devastating to their defense in ways that are pretty much irreparable.
Peter Carroll uses Cover 3 as his base defense, where cornerbacks Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead drop deep and cover the sidelines while Thomas patrols the entire deep middle of the field. This frees up strong safety Kam Chancellor to play closer to the line of scrimmage, where he violently obliterates every receiver and running back he can find. Chancellor playing with the destructive force of an angry rhinoceros allows the linebackers to blitz or play the pass in all kinds of creative ways, as with 8 men in the box the defense has a numbers advantage.
All that being said though, the Seahawks are playing at home, where they went 7-1 this season. The Lions finished the season a putrid 27th in offense DVOA and are banking on Holden Taint to regularly beat Richard Sherman to throws from a four fingered guy named Matt. Oh yeah, and the Lions play here:
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| The Slums of Mumbai |
STEELERS (-10) over Dolphins
There has been a lot of buzz about the Dolphins this week, with a lot of people in the media trying to talk themselves into taking Miami. Their case is basically:
1. These two teams played in Week 6, a game that Miami won 30-15.
2. Matt Moore isn't your typical backup QB, and has actually been pretty good. His numbers in 3 games as a starter: 63.4% completion rate, 676 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INT, 2-1 record. On a per game basis, he's really not significantly worse than Ryan Tannehill.
3. Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker are legit weapons who can make plays against a soft Pittsburgh defense. Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards when these two teams played in week 6, and is a legitimate top 10 RB in the NFL. They have playmakers who can control the ball and put up points.
I have to admit, it's a pretty good case, especially considering the line is so high. But allow me to refute it point by point:
1. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee early in that game, dramatically limiting his effectiveness. The Steelers played a clunker on the road, which happens to them a couple times every year. They will be playing at home, where Big Ben is much better, and he will be healthy. They aren't going to fuck up again in the playoffs.
2. While it's true that Moore hasn't been Blake Bortles/Osweiler level bad, he still hasn't been good. Saying he's not a full step down from Tannehill isn't a good endorsement for Miami's chances in this game if you recognize that Ryan Tannehill sucks.
3. Miami has some decent players and will score some points in this game. But the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell, two of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. Bell in particular has been incredible this year, averaging over 100 yards per game (running and receiving) while finishing as a top 3 fantasy running back while missing almost a quarter of the season to suspension. The Dolphins allowed 140.4 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Bell is going to slaughter them.
4. My sources tell me that the Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been consulting with former Steelers WR and notorious Blasian Hines Ward this week. My guess at his gameplan:
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Giants (+5) over PACKERS
Eli Manning obviously has an extremely punchable face. But is it even the most punchable from his own Draft Class? The contenders:
Eli Manning:
Ben Roethlisberger:
Phillip Rivers:
Matt Schaub:
It's a tough call, but I have to go with Rivers. Manning is a close second though.
Regardless, the Giants offense is a mess. It basically consists of 7 yard slant routes that Odell Beckham takes 60 yards to the endzone, and a pile of dogshit. Even though Paul Perkins is an exciting looking young running back, the Giants run game is completely ineffective for some reason. Eli Manning continues to be a complete mouth breather who gets away with some truly terrible throws, and always seems to be on the brink of disaster. This is not a good unit. However, the Packers simply don't have anyone to cover OBJ. Thanks to injuries, Green Bay's cornerback depth chart consists of Damarius Randall, LaDarius Gunter, Quenten Rollins, and Josh Hawkins. Woof. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Odell over 200 yards in this one.
The real reason to choose the Giants is their defense. After finishing 30th in defense last season, the Giants threw a pile of money and free agents, and for once that strategy actually paid off. With additions at every level of the field, New York's D improved to 2nd this season. They haven't allowed 30 points in a game all season, and have held the opposition under 20 points 8 times. They can rush the passer effectively with their front 4, and have excellent man-to-man coverage in the secondary. They were incredibly balanced, finishing 3rd in DVOA against the pass and 4th against the run.
The only reason to pick Green Bay is Aaron Rodgers, who has been a superhero over the past 6 weeks in leading the Pack to the playoffs. That being said, this game is going to be played in single digit weather on a frozen field, and the Giants defense is perfectly constructed to contain the Double Check Attack. I think the Packers receivers will struggle to get open, and the Giants D-Line will get enough pressure to disrupt Rodgers. The Packers might win through some Rodgers magic, but I see this game coming down to a field goal. I'll take the points.
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