NBA Round 2: Lessons from Game 1

Finally, we've made it to the meaningful part of the NBA season. The regular season is over and Round 1 has mercifully concluded, leaving us with the 8 best teams and no Los Angeles Clippers (thank God). We finally get to see what the top talents look like when everyone is actually trying all the time. Let's see what we've learned so far from Game 1s.

Celtics 123-111 Wizards

Hockey tough

      Boy, when the Celtics shoot like that they are just about unbeatable. After spotting Washington a 16-0 lead to start the game, Boston buried the John Wall and co. under an avalanche of 3s, finishing 19-39 on the night as a team. Jae Crowder went 6-8 from deep and scored 24 points, easily the best playoff performance of his career. The Little Guy! scored 33, including 5-11 from 3. Al Horford was an absolute monster, putting up a 21-9-10 while serving as the fulcrum of Boston's non-Isaiah offense. 

     The Celtics offense is similar to the Rockets', a drive-and-kick machine powered by a star point guard that is designed to produce exclusively layups and 3s. The Celtics are at their best when they have 5 players on the floor who can all dribble, pass and shoot credibly; the ball whizzes around and eventually gets ahead of the rotating defense for an open look. This style produces open 3 point shots because the defense collapses on drives to the rim, preferring to give up open shots to players who are farther away; the 3's are a result of the work of attacking the basket. The Celtics get in trouble when they put the result ahead of the process, and shoot contested looks that aren't a result of offensive sets. When they focus on the process, the only thing opponents can do is hope they miss. 

      Markieff Morris's injury could be devastating for the Wizards. While it's not nearly as serious as it initially appeared and Morris will play Game 2, Washington needs their power forward healthy if they're going to win this series. Simply put, their bench is a disaster. In the less than 2 minutes the Wizards played without Bradley Bela or John Wall on the floor in Game 1, they were outscored by 6. With Morris in the lineup, the Celtics don't have any easy hiding spots for Isaiah on defense. Thomas simply can't guard Beal or Wall without getting destroyed, and he obviously can't guard either Morris or Gortat, who are both at least 15 inches taller than him. That leaves Otto Porter Jr., who is still a talented enough post player to punish Thomas. With Morris out, his spot is taken by Kelly Oubre, a spot up shooter who sucks at shooting (28,7% from 3). This series may come down to how the Wizards can take advantage of mismatches targeting Thomas; I'm looking for them to use his man as the screener in pick-and-rolls a lot more moving forwards. 

Cavaliers 116-105 Raptors

  

     Basically, more of the same. The Cavs were up by as many as 25 in the 4th quarter, and were dominant throughout this entire game. Lebron threw up a 35-10-4 on 57% shooting, Kyrie scored 24, and they held the Lowry/DeRozan combo to just 39 points.  The Cavs were straight up clowning on Toronto in the 2nd half, with LeBron grabbing a beer from a vendor in the 3rd quarter. This comes on the heels of their series last year, when James said he doesn't see the Raptors as a threat before demolishing them by 26 in Game 6. 

Straight up disrespectful

     Everything the Raptors have done in the last 2 years was with an eye towards beating Cleveland, but if game 1 was any indication, they didn't make much progress. Demare Carroll was brought in to defend Lebron, but he looks absolutely cooked and not at all up to the task. PJ Tucker is strong enough for the task, but not fast enough to stay in front of him. Tucker's strategy in Game 1 was basically to hack the shit out of Lebron and hope he misses the free throws, which honestly might be Toronto's best bet. They don't have an answer for the Cavs small lineup, when Lebron shares the floor with 4 shooters. Jonas Valanciunas is particularly useless against this group, and the Raptors need to come up with different lineup to combat Cleveland's groups. 

     Toronto also needs to make adjustments on offense. The Cavs blitzed Lowry and especially DeRozan with traps, forcing them to give up the rock to the Raptors lesser players. Toronto doesn't have a Draymond Green type to dissect 4-3 situations, which is how the Warriors deal with this strategy. They need to draw up something more unorthodox to handle these traps. Valanciunas didn't do a good job scoring when Tristan Thompson was in the game, and if he can't win that matchup he's essentially unplayable in this series. Lowry had a poor shooting night, which he simply can't afford. Toronto has spent years looking for answers to this series, but they were disappointingly conventional in losing the same game we've seen these two teams play a dozen times now.  

Rockets 126-99 Spurs

     Holy cow. I don't think I've ever seen a more shocking basketball destruction in my young life. The Gregg Popovich Spurs got COMPLETELY ANNIHILATED, on their home floor, in the playoffs. What a strange world. San Antonio looked old, slow, and completely out of their league. The Rockets ran an endless string of pick and rolls with James Harden, and the Spurs couldn't stop it. In the first round, the Thunder were able to slow Harden down by switching everything and staying home on the Rockets shooters. Unfortunately, San Antonio doesn't have Steven Adams. Instead, they have 400 year old Pau Gasol playing in cement shoes, and he can't even stay in Harden's zip code. Lamarcus Aldridge and David Lee weren't much better. The Spurs can sic Kawhi Leonard on Harden in crunch time, but even Kawhi and his octopus arms can't handle that assignment for the whole game while also carrying a massive burden on offense. I've heard rumblings that Pop plans to go under screens in Game 2, daring Harden to shoot an open 3. This sounds like a desperation move to me, but it might be getting late early out here. But hey, Pop has forgotten more about basketball than I'll ever know. If anyone can find the answer, it's him. Things look really bleak though.

Warriors 115-Jazz 97

     Yes, this game technically hasn't happened yet. But what are we really going to learn here? Golden State is amazing, and while the Jazz are a fun young team, they are totally screwed. They will try to slow this game down and keep the lid on the Warriors volcanic transition offense. They will try to make this an ugly, half-court game that plays to the strengths of the Utah defense. They might even be successful. Even if they are, it won't matter. The Warriors are better at Utah's style of play than the Jazz are. Barring an injury or some nut-punching drama, there's not much of interest here. At least it's not the Clipper though, right? 

      

NFL Draft Round 1 Reactions

The first round of the NFL Draft is complete, and sadly we didn't have anything nearly as entertaining as last year Laremy Tunsil debacle.

Remember this?

       Despite a noticeable lack of parent sabotage, social media hackings, and way-too-intense bong rips, there was still plenty to take away from this years first 32 picks, even without Bill Belichick involved. Let's get to it. 

Cleveland plays it by the book

     Cleveland followed conventional wisdom and picked DE Myles Garrett, the consensus best player available, with the #1 overall pick. It would have been typical for them to totally overthink this, and do something amazingly dumb like trade down to draft Deshone Kizer as a franchise QB. Part of me was hoping they would do something like that; the other part of me was expecting them to. Way to not totally Browns this one up, Cleveland. 

What the fuck are the Bears doing?  

       Chicago came into this offseason with nothing but ??? at QB. They gave Mike Glennon a staggeringly stupid 3-year, $45 million deal to answer those questions. Tonight they found themselves in a draft with 2 QB choices and just one team ahead of them, so what did they do? Give away 3 picks to move up 1 spot, of course! Oh yeah, and then they passed on the guy who played in back-to-back national championship games in favor of the guy who just changed his name because it rhymed with "bitch". 

Jacksonville Splurges on the Wrong RB

      The Jaguars were in an interesting spot. Despite being bad enough to have a top-5 pick, Jacksonville's roster isn't utterly bereft of talent, unlike the other teams in this range. Their biggest needs are on the offensive line and at QB, where we have PLENTY of evidence that Blake Bortles is not the answer. Unfortunately, there aren't any good offensive linemen in this class, and no surefire QB pick. So the Jaguars used their #4 spot to grab LSU RB Leonard Fournette, trying to replicate the success that Dallas had with their Ezekiel Elliot pick at #4 last year. Unfortunately, the Jaguars don't have the best offensive line in over a decade, and I'm on record calling Fournette very overrated. Oh yeah, and Jacksonville also signed RB Chris Ivory to a 5 year, $32 million deal last season. Waste of a pick. 

Funny every time

Run of Receivers 

 

Picks 5-9 saw the 4 top pass catchers in this draft come off the board:

-Corey Davis went to the Titans, which I think is an excellent move. A dynamic wide receiver was their biggest need on offense, and Davis is going to be a MONSTER. Buckle up, Marcus Mariota: you're officially out of excuses. 

-Mike Williams to the Chargers. This looks like a decent fit, as Rivers loves throwing to big bodied, physical, jump-ball receivers like Williams. I just think the Chargers had bigger needs elsewhere, and will regret passing on some of the defensive studs that were available (they should have taken safety Malik Hooker).

-You're damn right I'm calling Christian McCaffrey a receiver. He worked out a lot on the outside during the draft process, and I expect the Panthers will use him out of the slot a ton. This is a great fit of skill set and scheme, and Cam Newton will finally have a wideout who is more than fast. 

-John Ross and his combine-record 4.2 second 40 time are going to Cincinnati to play opposite AJ Green. Think he might get the chance to outrun some single coverage? Only if he can stay healthy.

A cairn, or Ted Ginn's hands? You decide.

Two Big QB Trades

       Things got wild around the 10 spot! The Chiefs gave Buffalo a 2017 3rd rounder and a 2018 1st rounder for the right to swap picks, moving up 17 places to take QB Patrick Maholmes. There were a ton of pre-draft rumors about KC's interest in Maholmes, and the move signals they are finally ready to begin the process of moving on from Alex Smith. Still, Maholmes won't be ready to play right away, and I'm not sure the Chiefs needed to get all the way up to 10 to get their man, especially with Watson still on the board. They were obviously afraid that Cleveland/Houston/Denver (maybe?) were all in the market for a signla caller, but I don't think any of those teams were very interested in Maholmes. Regardless, a 1st and a 3rd is a HUGE price to pay for a project QB. 

       Everyone knew the Texans were looking for a QB, and once the Chiefs made their move it really put the pressure on the Houston brain trust. After years of outstanding defense being completely wasted by awful passers, the Texans will now turn things over to Clemson star Deshaun Watson. Watson turned the ball over way too much in college, and I have doubts that he will be accurate enough to succeed in the NFL, but I also think he's the best QB prospect in this draft. The Texans gave up their first round pick next year in the deal, but this was a no-brainer move. Watson throwing to DeAndre Hopkins will be exciting at the very least, and he came at a cheaper price than Maholmes. Good move for the Texans. 

Sad Brocketlauncher

A Bunch of Logical Picks on Defense

Sometimes, the characteristics of a pick determine the identity of a franchise. Other times, the identity of a franchise determines the characteristics of a pick. We got a bunch of the second kind in the middle of the first round:

-Arizona took linebacker Haasan Reddick, a great athlete who doesn't fit neatly into one position. The Cardinals have a whole defense full of these guys, and Reddick will fit right in playing both linebacker and safety in their hybrid scheme.

-The Eagles took DE Derek Barnett, a guy with an outstanding motor and great college production despite lacking elite natural athleticism. Does that sound like Philly?

-The Colts took S Malik Hooker,  one of my favorite players in this entire draft. Still, it is just incredibly Colts to look at a roster that hasn't been able to defend the run for years, and then go draft a safety whose negatives section is all about how he can't tackle. But hey, at least they didn't take another 5'9" slot receiver. Progress!

-Baltimore took CB Marlon Humphrey. His father was a star football player, he went to Alabama, his measurables are exactly what you look for in a corner, and all he needs is good coaching to teach him proper technique? Sounds like a classic Ozzie Newsome pick! I'm sure he will develop, in classic Baltimore fashion, into a solid contributor and horrible person. 

-The Redskins take DE Jonathan Allen, a tremendously talented pass rusher who tore the labrum in both of his shoulders during college, and now has freaking ARTHRITIS in both of them. Dan Snyder has never been afraid to make high-risk, high-reward moves, and this is certainly another one. 

We believe ALL murderer deserve a second chance

The Bucs are Loading up for Jameis

   Credit where credit is due: Tampa Bay realized that J-Boo needs more weapons than Mike Evans in order to thrive, so they went out and got some. First they signed free agent deep threat/aspiring gang member Desean "Jaccpot" Jackson to play across from Evans. Now they have drafted Alabama TE OJ Howard, who might be the best offensive player in this entire class. At 6'6 250 lbs, he runs a 4.51 40 yard dash. He's bigger than most linebackers, as fast as a running back, has amazing hands, and can block too. Basically, he's Black Gronk. The only knock on him is that some scouts don't think he is "competitive enough", which sounds like the kind of thing you say because you can't just leave a pool of cum on your evaluation sheet. This guy should have been a top 10 pick.   

The Giants Miss an Opportunity

     Quick, what do the Giants need most? If you answered anything but a running game, you haven't watched a single Giants game in the last two seasons. They had two excellent running backs to choose from in Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara, and instead selected... Evan Engram, a receiving tight end who struggles to block in the run game. Maybe the Giants think they can get one of the running backs tomorrow, or maybe they have their eye on a different back in a later round. Still, there are a ton of tight ends in this draft, and Big Blue didn't do anything to address their weaknesses with this pick. 

The Browns Get Frisky Late

     With 2 first picks and 11 overall, Cleveland was always going to be a major player in this draft, but they made even bigger splashes than people were expecting on day 1. After picking #1 and dealing the 12th overall pick to Houston, Cleveland took positionless superathlete Jabril Peppers with the 25th pick. Then they shipped a 4th rounder to the Packers to move up from 33 to 29 and grab TE David Njoku.  Both players are incredibly athletic, potential game changers, but both are somewhat raw. Taking the athletic talent and figuring it out later reflects the sabermetrics, Moneyball style approach that Paul DePodesta was hired for,  but it's definitely risky. Turned gifted yet unrefined athletes into productive NFL players requires quality coaching and sound organizational structure, neither of which have been associated with Cleveland for the last 3 decades or so.  

The Patriots Draft Brandin Cooks with the 32nd pick

Most teams use a first round pick on a receiver hoping they turn into young Pro Bowler. Belichick does it knowing Cooks already is one.   

The Dark Lord reigns supreme

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Red Sox Recap: Headhunting

It was actually closer than this makes it look

      Before we get to the actual games this week, I have to address the controversy in Baltimore over the weekend. On Friday, Orioles superstud Manny Machado took out Dustin Pedroia with a spikes up slide into Petey's leg. 

Missed the base there dickhead

   Dustin was injured on the play, and hasn't returned to the field since. He is day-to-day pending further evaluation in Boston. Pedroia said after the game that he didn't have a problem with what Machado did, and also, "I've turned the best double play in the Major Leagues for 11 years. I don't need the fuckin rule" to protect middle infielders. Petey is the man.

   Two days later, Matt Barnes threw a 97 MPH fastball at Machado's earhole. Manny was obviously pissed, and TV cameras caught Pedroia apologizing to Machado from the Red Sox dugout, saying he didn't ask for the pitch. Afterwards, Barnes got suspended 4 games for his clear attempt to assassinate one of the best players in MLB. Honestly, I thought that Machado's slide was dirty and merited a response. It was late in a game the Orioles were already winning, and clearly spikes up into Petey's leg. I have no problem with drilling him, but you can't wait two days and then try to kill the guy with a freaking missile at his domepiece. Put one in his ribs in his next at-bat after the slide and move on like responsible adults. Now, on to the....

Results

Rays 3-4 Red Sox                                               Red Sox 0-2 Orioles

Red Sox 8-7 Blue Jays                                       Red Sox 2-4 Orioles

Red Sox 0-3 Blue Jays                                       Red Sox 6-2 Orioles

Red Sox 4-1 Blue Jays                                                                        

Week: 4-3

Season: 11-8, 2 GB in the East

      The Sox started off the week strong, winning the finale against the Rays and taking 2 of 3 in Canada. The Blue Jays finished that series with a record of 3-12, but they aren't going to be terrible like this all season. They have too much talent to not get going at some point, so its important to beat them up now while they're struggling. The series finale on Thursday was particularly exciting, as Chris Sale dominated yet again with 8.0 innings, 0 runs and 13 Ks. The Sox scored the first run of the game in the top of the 9th, only to see Kimbrel give up a homer to the first batter he faced in the bottom half. Luckily, Mookie Betts saved the day in the 10th with a 3 run double, and the Sox avoided wasting another Sale gem. Sale now has a 0.91 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 29 innings. Little tidbit for you: 19 of those Ks have been on his slider, making it an absolutely elite finishing pitch. In general, the Sox got solid starting pitching out of the entire rotation this week... except for Steven Wright, who couldn't get out of the 4th inning without giving up multiple homers, again. He looks like the obvious choice to ax when/if David Price returns. 

Still don't see the Pedro comp though

   On the flip side, Boston had a major offensive slump towards the end of the week. They were shut out in the 2nd game in Toronto, and didn't score until the 9th of the finale. Then they got shut out and only managed 2 runs in the losses against Baltimore. These random slumps are going to happen to even the best offenses, so it was nice to see them break out with 3 HR against Kevin Gausman on Sunday. Pablo Sandoval currently leads the team in bombs with 3, so it would be nice to see some of our actually good players changing that in the near future. 

Hero of the Week

     Mookie Betts will be a regular feature in this space. He led the team with 8 RBI this week, hit two jacks, and added a game winning hit for good measure. He did strike out 3 times, bringing his season total to... 3. He's the best player in one of the best lineups in baseball. 

Honorable Mention: Andrew Benintendi 

The youngest Killer B hit .429 this week, raising his numbers on the season to .347/.415/.829. He's also a 22 year old rookie.

Goat of the Week

     Gotta be Matt Barnes. In addition to his bullshit with Machado, Barnes gave up 4 runs in 2.2 innings of terrible relief pitching this week. At least he won't be fucking up any of the next 4 games while he sits in the corner of shame. 

Dishonorable Mention: Steven Wright 

At this point, it seems like Wright can't even take a shit without it going long on him. 

Looking Ahead

Red Sox host the Yankees for 3 and then the World Series Champion Chicago Cubs will be in town over the weekend. Huuuuge week for the boys, with the first look at the young New York team and then a chance to take on the best. 3-3 is probably a fair expectation.   

Red Sox Recap: Home Run Derby

Population: Red Sox Opponents

Results

Orioles 1-8 Red Sox                                                       Rays 10-5 Red Sox                    

Orioles 12-5 Red Sox                                                        Rays 1-2 Red Sox

Pirates 3-4 Red Sox                                                        Rays 5-7 Red Sox

4-2 record for the boys this week. Solid showings against teams they should beat, with the offense performing much better overall. This makes sense, as most of the starting lineup was actually playing instead of vomiting all over the clubhouse. 

      The best part of this week was the Red Sox demonstrating resilience and an ability to win in a variety of ways. In the makeup game against the Pirates on Wednesday, Chad Kuhl absolutely shut down the Sox for 7 innings, giving Pittsburgh a 3-1 lead through 7. Boston got into the bullpen and rallied back for 3 runs in the 8th, with HanRam and Xander Bogaerts providing the key hits. On Saturday, Chris Sale was lights out once again, but the bats were quiet despite facing the Rays bullpen for the entire game after Odorizzi pulled a muscle in the 2nd inning. Baseball is a weird game, and that will happen sometimes, but it was great to see the bottom of the lineup scratch out the winning run in the 7th. On Sunday, the Sox got multi-hit days from 6 different players, scoring consistently throughout the game to win a wild, back-and-forth affair. This week they won a blowout, a comeback, a pitchers duel, and a see-saw game. That's the kind of flexibility that can do serious damage in the playoffs.

Hero of the Week: Mitch Moreland

Wonderful tee shot, Mr. Moreland!

        

       When the Sox signed Moreland in the offseason, I expected outstanding defense but below average offensive production compared to other first basemen. He's made a big dent in proving me wrong this week, going 9-21 (is hitting .428 good?) with 4 doubles and a homer. If he can return to his 2015 levels of production, when he hit .278 with 23 HR, that will go a long way towards making the Red Sox lineup the best in the AL. 

Honorable Mention: Chris Sale 

Sale turned in another brilliant start this week, striking out 12 Rays over 7 innings of 1 run ball. His starts are quickly becoming appointment viewing, and he's singlehandedly driving up the price of K sign stock in Boston. Take notes, David Price: this is what a high profile acquisition Ace is supposed look like. 

Goat of the Week: Steven Wright

Has that ball landed yet?

     Steven Wright made one start this week. He got four Orioles hitters out, and gave up four home runs. I am on the record as saying that knuckleballers results are mostly luck; they throw the knuckleball at the plate and hope for the best. Sometimes, they string a bunch of good luck together and win the Cy Young (RA Dickey) or make the All-Star team (2016 Wright). Sometimes you give up 8 runs in an inning. I fear that we're due for a lot more of this Steven Wright than the one we saw last season. 

Honorable Mention: Rick  Porcello

     Rick made a damn good push for this dubious honor, as he also gave up 4 homers and 8 runs to the Rays, but he at least made it into the 5th inning. For those of you keeping score at home, Boston pitchers allowed 12 home runs in 6 games this week. Let's work on that shall we?

Looking Ahead

        Patriots Day game at 11:30 AM on Monday, then hitting the road for a 6 game road trip: 3 in Toronto then 3 in Baltimore. The Blue Jays are off to the worst start in franchise history and the Orioles are the Orioles. Let's shoot for 6-1, 4-3 at the worst. 

Red Sox Recap: Fits and Starts

Results

Pirates 3-5 Red Sox                                                              Red Sox 1-4 Tigers 

Pirates 0-3 Red Sox (11 innings)                                          Red Sox 7-5 Tigers

Red Sox 5-6 Tigers                                                              Red Sox 1-2 Tigers

         The Red Sox started the season with a rough week, going 3-3 against the Pirates and Tigers. Obviously, those results aren't exactly what you're looking for to start the season, but it's actually not bad all things considered. 

     With David Price and Drew Pomeranz starting the year on the Disabled List and a brutal April schedule, a slow start was always a real possibility, but things really got out of hand this week. First, an outbreak of flu took out Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt, Joe Kelly, and Robbie Ross Jr. Then, Xander Bogaerts and Matt Barnes went on the bereavement list in order to travel to Aruba for a funeral. As if missing almost the entire starting lineup and half the bullpen wasn't enough, Jackie Baseball went down on Saturday with a very scary looking, non-contact injury while rounding first base. He's been diagnosed with a sprained knee ligament and placed on the 10-day DL. Hopefully he's not out too long, but with that kind of injury I don't expect to see him back on the field for a couple of weeks at least. The Red Sox will miss his production in the lineup and his defense in centerfield, but I might miss his name most of all; "The Killer Bs" doesn't work nearly as well with Chris Young playing in the outfield.

Even with all the built in excuses, it still hurts to lose some of those games in Detroit. They wasted a huge 5 run, 8th inning comeback in the first game of the series, and then threw away a phenomenal Chris Sale effort in the series finale. John Farrell left Sale in the game too long, allowing him to give up 2 runs in the 8th before going to the bullpen, but I'm actually going to give him a pass this time. His options in the bullpen were pretty limited between illness and injury, and there's something to be said for giving your new ace the opportunity to get out of trouble. However, Farrell has a history of poor in-game management, and mistakes like this are going to put him on veeeery thin ice if the team struggles.   

Hero of the Week 

Chris Sale has been every bit the ace the Sox paid for. In two starts this week, he threw 17.2 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 8 hits with 17 strikeouts. He didn't get a win because the Red Sox didn't hit a lick in either game, but that's not on Sale. I can't wait to watch this guy dominate hitters for the rest of the season. 

Honorable Mention: Sandy Leon

The Sox catcher is red hot to start the season, going 7-16 with both a bunt  single and a walk-off 3 run bomb. He looks like he's on a mission to prove last season wasn't a fluke, which would make an already stacked lineup truly ridiculous.

Goat of the Week

Dr. Laurence Ronan is the Medical Director and Head Team Internist for the Boston Red Sox. Judging by the above picture, which I pulled off of his Vitals doctor profile, he's also a legendary boozehound. I know the flu is a tricky little bastard, but you just can't let the entire lineup get hit with it at once. We've known about infectious diseases for a couple centuries now, come on Larry. Be better. 

  Looking Ahead

The Sox will be in Boston all week. They have 3 with the Orioles, the makeup game for the rainout with the Pirates, and then 4 with Tampa Bay. Baltimore should be a good test, but these are all very winnable games. An early 8 game homestand against mediocre competition is a great chance to get some Ws in an otherwise very difficult month. Anything worse than 5-3 will be a disappointment.  

That's all for this week. Remember to follow us on twitter @TheOutsidersPod, like the Facebook page, and keep an eye out for new podcasts, articles, and who knows maybe even an actual website!

Optimistic and Pessimistic Views of the 2017 Red Sox

Gotta love that logo

Opening Day is upon us, so what better time to talk about what we can expect to see this year? Let's get to it.

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Some people like to bet on things they have a solid shot of producing steady, moderate returns. They call this type of betting "investing in solid, well run companies". Other people are like me, and can think of nothing better to do with our money than risk it on utterly inane elements of our nation's Secular Holiday. Plus, if you don't happen to be blessed enough to root for the New England Patriots (or the Falcons, I guess?), these are a great way to generate some emotional investment in the proceedings. 

National Anthem 

Over 2:15 -120

Under 2:15 -120

This is probably my favorite bet every year. There's no sweeter music than the Star Spangled Banner, and there's no better way to get to full mast than by nailing the first bet of the night. Last year this bet was insane, when that drama queen Lady Gaga was all set to come in for an easy under victory before she decided to tack on an absurd ending. She hit the Over on her second round of "Home of the Brave":

Naturally, I hammered the under, so I was pretty ripshit. UNTIL the halftime announcement from Bovada that the official rules stated that the clock stopped at the end of the last note of the first "Home of the Brave", flipping the result. It was one hell of an emotional roller coaster, people. 

This year's anthem will be performed by country star Luke Bryan, and the 2:15 length is the longest that number has been in the history of this prop. Bryan is a real pop country crooner, he loves the spotlight, and he's obviously never been told that the National Anthem is written as a brisk march. He got it done in a reasonable 2:04 at the 2012 MLB All-Star Game, but went an insane 2:29 at the opening of the Vikings new stadium in September.  He was under 2 minutes at a concert in Virginia in June, but I don't think that performance at a random concert is indicative of what we'll see from him on Sunday. The guy is a shoe-in to let the cheering build with a dramatic pause before the final line, and he'll probably pull out the old "point the microphone at the crowd" move at the same time. He's going to drink in the attention in his big moment, and I'm taking the over.

 

Coin Toss

Heads -105

Tails -105

Some people look at the odds of winning this bet and the potential payoffs and say that it's a completely foolish thing to bet on. Others of us see it as a great barometer for how God is feeling about us. 

What could go wrong?

Tails has a 26-24 edge all time in this matchup, and while that might indicate a regression towards heads, I think the prevailing wisdom from the playground applies here: Tails never fails, Heads is for Trump voters. 

I'm not going to bet on anything to do with the actual football in this game because I simply can't afford to get distracted from the task at hand. So let's skip ahead to...

Halftime 

What will Lady Gaga's first song be?

Born This Way +225
Bad Romance +250
Edge of Glory +600
Poker Face +1000
Just Dance +1000
Any Other Song +110

With everything going on in the world of politics and Lady Gaga's history of activism, Born This Way seems like the obvious, runaway favorite. It's a loud proclamation of support for diversity that was adopted as a theme song for the LGBTQ movement. Come on. These odds indicate that "any other song" is the favorite, which makes no sense to me at all. Born This Way will probably be the first song that Gaga plays in full. It's an obvious call.

HOWEVER:

I remember the controversy that surrounded this bet last year. Coldplay ran onto the field to the opening line of Yellow, their first and most iconic hit, but then transitioned into the more upbeat Viva La Vida. I can absolutely see the same thing happening again: Gaga rises up through the stage in a cloud of smoke, as a nod to one of her earliest hits announces her presence: the iconic, instantly recognizable "muh muh muh muh" from Poker Face. At +1000 the payoff is just too good to resist.

Will the word "Lacrosse" be said on the live broadcast?

Yes -250
No +170

This means during the actual game, not the pre-game, post-game, or halftime shows. I'm also very confident Joe Buck is aware of this prop bet. Bill Belichick famously LOVES lacrosse, and Chris Hogan starred in lacrosse (not football) in college. If Hogan scores, this is a definite yes, but I think Buck finds a way to slip in in regardless.

How many times will "Matty Ice" be said during the live broadcast?

Over 2 -110
Under 2 -130

There is absolutely no chance Troy Aikman calls him that. Buck probably does it once going into a commercial break, but I can't see it happening 3 times. Hammer the under.

What color will the Gatorade poured on the winning coach be?

Clear +300
Yellow +300
Lime/Green +300
Orange +300
Red +600
Blue +750
Purple +1200

Bill Belichick didn't receive a shower, and I'm fairly certain he has banned the tradition for anything but the Super Bowl. In fact, he avoided the shower entirely in each of the Pats first 2 Super Bowl wins, although that probably had something to do with the last second field goal nature of those games. The Pats hit him with blue after their 2014 victory, but I bet BB got pissed that it made him sticky. If New England wins, clear is the bet here.

We don't have much to go on with the Falcons either. They doused Dan Quinn with yellow after their NFC Championship victory, and it stands to reason that they would have the same hydration plan in place for the Super Bowl.

I nailed this bet with Orange last season, but that was a layup. This year is much, much harder; there's pretty good value with Blue and Red, but it usually doesn't correspond with team colors. The Pats are favored here, so either Blue or Clear is the logical choice. I'll take the value with Blue over rooting for a boring old ice bucket challenge.