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The Red Sox entered the 2016 season with an over/under wins total of 85.5, then went 93-69 and won the AL East, before losing in disappointing fashion to the Cleveland Indians in the first round of the playoffs. This season, Boston's over/under number is 90.5, so we can pencil them in to win 98 games, right? Maybe not so fast.
The Pessimistic View
The Red Sox had a lot of things go right for them in 2016. Mookie Betts blossomed into an MVP candidate, David Ortiz had by far the best season a 40 year old has ever had ever, Rick Porcello turned into a Cy Young winner, Steven Wright became an All-Star knuckleballer, Jackie Bradley Jr. learned how to hit, Hanley Ramirez was a god damn miracle at first base, and their competitors suffered some key injuries in important parts of the season. That combination is just not going to happen again, and here are the two main factors that are going to unravel the season.
Injuries
Boston was able to avoid any major injuries to key players in 2016, but that's already not the case in 2017. David Price is starting the year on the DL with elbow inflammation, which typically means Tommy John surgery and a whole year on the shelf. Price's elbow is apparently unique, so he's going to try to recover without surgery. Even if Price does avoid the knife with his Wolverine pitching arm, there is no timetable for his return, and every pitch he throws when he does come back would risk his arm exploding. The Sox simply can't count on having Price. They also can't count on having Drew Pomeranz, who is also on the DL to start the year and has a longggg history of injuries (last year was the first time he threw even 100 innings in his 5 year career). There's also Hanley Ramirez, who played a full season last year for the first time since 2012. When HanRam came to Boston in 2015, he was expected to play outfield and be a slugger. So he hit the weight room, got jacked, tried to hit homers, and pulled a muscle in May that affected him all season long. Last year, he slimmed down, moved back into the infield, and focused on hitting line drives. He was a beast who stayed healthy. This year? He's playing DH, taking over for David Ortiz, and he looks like this:
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| Holy bicep curls, Batman! |
Regression
The Red Sox best strength in 2016 was their offense, which easily led the majors with 5.4 runs/game, but there are plenty of reasons to think they won't be as good in 2017. David Ortiz retired, and the Sox will clearly miss his completely absurd 87 extra base hits. We've already covered how Hanley Ramirez is going to get hurt. These are obvious reasons, but there are some less neon warning signs hiding in the numbers from last season. Xander Bogaerts was incredibly fortunate for most of last season, as his .350 batting average was buoyed by an unsustainably high BABIP (a measure of how lucky a hitter is). He's a really good shortstop, but he won't hit like Ted Williams again. Then there's Jackie Bradley Jr., who captured my heart (along with all of New England's) by ripping off a 29 game hitting streak across April and May. It seemed like Bradley had finally learned how to hit, the final piece to unlock the potential of his outstanding athleticism. However, Bradley cooled off in the second half of the season in a major way, batting just .233 while striking out in 25% of his at-bats. That's... not good at all, and looks a lot like the guy whose pitiful work with the lumber was going to torpedo his career despite his speed and defensive skills.
It's not just the hitters, either. Prior to 2016, we had 7 seasons worth of evidence saying that Rick Porcello was a 175 inning, 4.5-ish ERA pitcher. Then he posted a 22-4 record with 223 innings of 3.15 ERA artistry, and won the AL Cy Young Award. So who is the Rickiest Rick? We're about to find out, but 7 years against 1 says that Sox fans are going to be disappointed with the answer. Like Porcello, Steven Wright posted a complete outlier season in 2016. After a career bouncing around the minors, the 31 year old knuckleballer basically pitched with a horseshoe shoved up his ass for the first half of last season, leading MLB in ERA at the All-Star break. He cooled off and got hurt in the second half, but still finished with a very solid 3.34 ERA. This career journeyman isn't likely to make the All-Star team again in 2017.
The Red Sox were already starting out on uncertain footing in 2017, following the departure of their best hitter, unquestioned leader and the face of the franchise for the last decade-plus. Now they're starting the season with 40% of their starting rotation injured and another 40% primed for a dropoff. They're going to need to outscore people, but the lineup just isn't going to be as devastating as it was last year. Boston struggles out of the gate, and as the injuries and pressure mounts, everything falls apart. The season is a disaster and Manager John Farrell is sent back to the cancer ward before the end of August.
The Optimistic View
The Red Sox exceeded expectations last season, making the playoffs a year ahead of schedule. Then they went out and got better. Here are the two factors that are going to continue Boston's dominance of the sporting world.
The Young Talent
For most of my childhood, the ultimate enemy was the Yankees, the Evil Empire powered by a Core Four of homegrown players, surrounded by the most expensive free agents that the treasure of Smaug could buy. Now, in my young adulthood, the Red Sox are poised to dominate with their own core of precocious studs. RF Mookie Betts, SS Xander Bogaerts, and CF Jackie Bradley Jr. were all drafted and developed by the Red Sox (thanks Theo Epstein!) All three hit at least 20 HR last season. All three made the All-Star team. All three are under 27 years old. This season, they are joined by 22-year-old LF Andrew Benintendi, who is ranked as the #3 prospect in MLB by Baseball Prospectus and already showed flashes of what he can do at the end of last season. With another year of experience under their belts, these guys are going to be insane this year. The Killer Bs are the hottest boy band of summer 2017, and they're going to be the reason for a lot of dancing in the outfield.
AB leading this dance is a major upset
The Filthy Rotation
The Red Sox pulled off a blockbuster trade this winter, acquiring Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox (yeah, there is another team in Chicago) for prospects including Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. The prospects have incredible potential, but Chris Sale is downright NASTY. He's a 6'5" lefty with a freaking trebuchet for a left arm. He's pitched in 7 seasons, and has never finished with an ERA higher than 3.41. He's been to 5 straight All-Star games and has 5 straight top 5 finishes in the Cy Young Award voting. Just look at what he did to All-Star hitter Mark Trumbo:
Chris Sale is quite simply one of the top 5-10 pitchers on Planet Earth. He makes people swing at pitches that hit them. And he didn't start for Boston on opening day. When David Price is healthy, the Sox rotation will have two Cy Young winners, then Chris freaking Sale, then an All-Star, then finish up with either Eduardo Rodriguez or Drew Pomeranz, both very promising young talents. Good luck, rest of the American League!
Oh yeah, and I almost forgot the best part- Dave Dombrowski somehow swindled the Phillies into taking this asshole off our hands:
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| Swamp rat, True-Detective-season-1-looking motherfucker |
The Red Sox have at least 5 Gold Glove quality fielders in the starting lineup. They have a core of incredible young superstars. They could easily have five or six 20 HR guys. They have a top 3 starting rotation in all of baseball. They have the best fans on the planet. They're the best, deepest team in the American League, and they are going to play the Cubs in October in an all-Epstein World Series. And since nobody repeats in baseball...
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| Welcome home, babe |
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