NFL Picks Week 6

Last week was an all-time disaster for NFL gamblers. Underdogs were winning outright, home field advantage meant nothing, and just about everyone who picks games got waxed. I picked a hell of a week to take my bye!

As always, home team in CAPS

Broncos (-3.5) over CHARGERS

I thought the Broncos pass rush would eat Philip Rivers alive and the Denver offense would do enough for an easy victory. Instead, the opposite happened; the Chargers defense completely stymied Denver's offense, and the home team scrapped together just enough points to beat the defending Super Bowl Champions. Great start to the week.

Bengals (+9.5) over PATRIOTS

I love Tom Brady and this two tight end offense with Martellus Bennett and Gronk is the NFL equivalent of Dr. Manhattan. It's never a fair fight. The Patriots are going to win this game. 

That being said, I liked this line a lot more where it opened, at 6.5. The Bengals are better than they have played so far, and they have plenty of offensive weapons to get the kind of cheap second half scores that Belichick doesn't mind giving up when his team is up big. This one screams backdoor cover. 

Ravens (+3) over GIANTS

The Ravens just fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, a move that should have happened before he was even interviewed for the job. It seems that an inability to establish the running game was the biggest problem (cut to every person in Chicago nodding vigorously), so we should see a healthy dose of the backfield in the first week under Marty Morninweg. On the other hand, Baltimore is turning to Marty Morninweg as their savior. Woof. Meanwhile, the Giants have been running the same offense for about a decade: Eli Manning, a solid crew of receivers, no TE and no running game whatsoever. They're the result of a bad fantasy draft in Madden. Both these teams have been pretty bad offensively this year, but there is reason to believe one of them might improve this week. 

 Rams (+3) over LIONS

The Rams are 3-2, which means they are still one loss away from Jeff Fisher Equilibrium. Plus, they are still starting Kase Keenum at QB for some reason. Todd Gurley has run for an astoundingly terrible 2.7 yards per carry, although that might not be a surprise since he is literally the only thing the Rams have going for them on offense. However, if there is a week for him to get going, its this one, as the Lions are 28th in DVOA against the run. More than anything though, this is a pick against the Lions. I think Detroit is just terrible. They lost to the Bears. They were extremely lucky to beat the Eagles last week, needing a late fumble to come back and win. Matt Stafford can throw the ball, but he has to because they have maybe the worst running game in the NFL. They can't stop the run or the pass, and are dead last in defensive DVOA. Give me LA Fisher!!

The bathroom is all the way over there? 

Eagles (-3) over REDSKINS

Taking a rookie QB as a road favorite should make me nervous. But, the NFL in 2016 makes absolutely no sense. This line is definitely a reflection of how bad Washington has looked this season, as they are a veeeery ugly 3-2. Philly is 2nd in defensive DVOA, and has been especially good against the pass (remember that complete destruction of Pittsburgh?) The Redskins have a ton of weapons on offense, and that should make them better than they are. Unfortunately, Captain Kirk hasn't been playing well, and he will have another tough day here. 

Panthers (-2.5) over SAINTS

The hangover for Super Bowl losers is a well documented phenomenon, and it has hit the Panthers harder than usual, exacerbated by injuries to Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart. Good news: Newton will be back this week, with Stewart possibly playing a role as well. I don't think the Panthers were as good as their 15-1 record last season, but they aren't as bad as their 1-4 record this season. I think they get the offense going in this one, and their upcoming schedule is pretty friendly (Cardinals, at Rams, Chiefs, Saints) so they could go on a little run here. 

The key to this game will be the matchup of Drew Brees against the Panthers secondary. While the defense was a huge strength last season, Carolina has fallen to the middle of the pack in DVOA this year, and they are 22nd against the pass. Brees must have been salivating watching Matt Ryan destroy them a couple weeks ago, and he is at home. However, I just think this Panthers team has to regress upwards at some point, and Im picking this week for it to start. 

49ers (+8) over BILLS

A lot of people are going to be watching this game, because Colin Kaepernick will be getting the start at QB for the 49ers. I don't give a shit. I don't think he makes much of a difference on the field; if he was really going to light the world on fire, Chip Kelly would have gone to the running QB much sooner. However, I also don't think the Bills should be favored by more than a TD against anyone. They haven't won 4 straight since 2008, and I can totally see them giving this one away completely with dumb penalties, turnovers, and inexplicable mental mistakes. It's just what the Bills do. 

Steelers (-7) over DOLPHINS

Have you watched the Dolphins play offense this year? If you're reading this, I'm assuming you haven't, because it will burn your eyeballs out of your skull. The average Miami drive lasts 4.5 plays, last in the NFL. They turn it over on 18.3% of their possessions, which is 4th worst. They score on 23% of possessions, which is also dead last. I know Pittsburgh is banged up, and doesn't have an elite defense to begin with, but come on. This is going to be a demolition. 

TITANS (-7) over Browns

This is one of the worst matchups I have ever seen, and somehow this is the fourth season in a row to feature these two teams playing. The Browns are hoping to have Cody Kessler healthy at QB this week, which is an incredibly depressing best case scenario. They're going 0-16. Let's move on. 

Falcons (+7) over SEAHAWKS

This line makes no sense to me. The Falcons offense looks absolutely legit, and they just beat a team with outstanding defense and offensive issues last week. The Seahawks are at home, and the weather is expected to be bad, which will hurt the Falcons passing game. However, I just don't see how Seattle wins by more than a TD. This is one of the best matchups of the week, but of course it won't be in prime time because the NFL doesn't give a fuck. 

Chiefs (-2) over RAIDERS

Andy Reid is 15-2 after a bye week. The Chiefs got absolutely massacred by the Steelers the last time they played. They will be incredibly well prepared and fired up for this divisional game. Also, Jamaal Charles is off the injury report, meaning he could have a triumphant return to the field. It will be interesting to watch what role Stephen Ware plays in this backfield moving forwards. I think the Raiders are good, but they are flying a little too high right now at 4-1. This is a classic comedown game for them, as they come unraveled under the pressure of Kansas City's execution. This could also be a big Jeremy Maclin week, as the Raiders are 29th in pass defense DVOA and particularly vulnerable against WRs.

PACKERS (-4.5) over Cowboys

The juiciest matchup to watch in this one is the Cowboys running game against the Packers front seven. Green Bay is 2nd in rush defense DVOA, while Dallas has football's best running game. If the Packers can fight that battle to a draw, they will have the edge as I don't see much about this Dallas defense that will concern Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been far from spectacular this season, but his offensive line is playing very well, and I think he will put some points on the board at home. 

BEARS (-1.5) over Jaguars

If this isn't the worst game of the 2016 season there should be a riot. 

Colts (+3) over TEXANS

For those of you keeping track, that's the 5th time I've used the poop emoji to describe a game. Seriously though, why the hell is this game in primetime? Both of these teams suck. There are a handful of much more compelling games to choose from. I don't care that both teams are playoff contenders because of their shit division. I really don't want to talk about this game, and I certainly don't want to watch it. What the hell.  

In 2014, Andrew Luck was sacked 27 times in 16 games. That was a problem. He has been sacked 20 times in 5 games so far this season, which is a violation of his human rights. Ryan Grigson is terrible at being a GM. However, the Colts still have Luck, who is far better than anyone on the Texans with no JJ Watt. Im done talking about this. 

Cardinals (-7) over JETS

The Jets secondary is atrocious. They are dead last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, and that might be underselling how bad they are. Carson Palmer is back for this one, and I think he has a massive day. New York simply doesn't have anyone who can stay with John Brown deep, and they certainly can't cover Larry Fitzgerald and all the other Cardinals weapons at the same time. The Cardinals have been dysfunctional this season, and have massively underperformed expectations, but if there is a team to turn it around against, this week is it. Also, Eric Decker went on IR this week and Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the Jets QB. Don't be scared of the big line.

Red Sox vs Indians ALDS Preview

It's playoff time baby! After back-to-back last place finishes, the Red Sox are back in the postseason for the first time since 2013. Somebody remind me how that turned out...

nice smile Buchholz you creepy fuck

The first step in repeating that feat is beating the Cleveland Indians, with game 1 starting today. Here's everything you need to know about the series.

Season Series: 4-2 Red Sox, with Boston taking 2 of 3 in both series the teams played this year.

Schedule

Game 1: Cleveland, Thursday @ 8 PM EST

Game 2: Cleveland, Friday @ 4:30 PM EST

Game 3: Boston, Sunday @ 4 PM EST

Game 4 (if necessary): Boston, Monday TBD

Game 5 (If necessary): Cleveland, Wednesday, TBD

Cleveland has home field advantage in the series by virtue of winning 1 more game than the Sox during the regular season. They were 53-28 at home, tied for 2nd best in MLB, so this could definitely play a big role in the series. 

Starting Lineups

                                                                         Red Sox                                                                        

	Player	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB	K
1	Dustin Pedroia	2B	633	105	15	74	7	0.318	0.376	0.449	0.825	61	73
2	Brock Holt	3B	290	45	7	34	4	0.255	0.322	0.383	0.705	27	58
3	Mookie Betts	RF	672	122	31	113	26	0.318	0.363	0.534	0.897	49	80
4	David Ortiz	DH	537	79	38	127	2	0.315	0.401	0.620	1.021	80	86
5	Hanley Ramirez	1B	549	81	30	111	9	0.286	0.361	0.505	0.866	60	120
6	Xander Bogaerts	SS	652	115	21	89	13	0.294	0.356	0.446	0.802	58	123
7	Jackie Bradley	CF	558	94	26	87	9	0.267	0.349	0.486	0.835	63	143
8	Sandy Leon	C	252	36	7	35	0	0.310	0.369	0.476	0.845	23	66
9	Andrew Benintendi	LF	105	16	2	14	1	0.295	0.359	0.476	0.835	10	25

The Red Sox offense was dominant during the regular season, scoring an MLB-best 878 runs during the regular season. The top of the order is completely devastating, anchored by possible MVP Mookie Betts and the living legend Big Papi, along with a massively resurgent Hanley Ramirez. Dustin Pedroia is hitting as well as he ever has right now, and doing a great job setting the table for the power guys. Hanley Ramirez is red hot, riding a power surge that saw him belt 10 home runs in the month of September alone. If Mookie Betts does indeed win MVP, it will be in large part because he was a destroyer of worlds down the stretch, batting .330 over the final month of the season. If the Sox can get guys like Jackie Baseball and Xander Bogaerts going like they were earlier in the year, this lineup will be completely unstoppable. 

                                                                          Indians

	Player	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB	K
1	Carlos Santana	1B	582	89	34	87	5	0.259	0.366	0.498	0.865	99	99
2	Jason Kipnis	2B	610	91	23	82	15	0.275	0.343	0.469	0.811	60	146
3	Francisco Lindor	SS	604	99	15	78	19	0.301	0.358	0.435	0.794	57	88
4	Mike Napoli	DH	557	92	34	101	5	0.239	0.335	0.465	0.800	78	194
5	Jose Ramirez	3B	565	84	11	76	22	0.312	0.363	0.462	0.825	44	62
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	RF	385	43	8	57	6	0.286	0.328	0.439	0.767	23	70
7	Rajai Davis	LF	454	74	12	48	43	0.249	0.306	0.388	0.693	33	106
8	Tyler Naquin	CF	321	52	14	43	6	0.296	0.372	0.514	0.886	36	112
9	Yan Gomes	C	251	22	9	34	0	0.167	0.201	0.327	0.527	9	69

While Cleveland can't quite match the top-to-bottom balance of the Red Sox, they are a very strong offensive team in their own right. They scored 777 runs, good for 5th best in baseball. The Indians hit just 185 homers this yar (18th in MLB), but make up for it with clutch hitting and speed on the basepaths (they stole 134 bases as a team, best in the American League). They feature a very unusual lineup construction, as their leadoff hitter is a first baseman who is tied for the team lead in HR and isn't a threat to steal. Meanwhile, their speedy middle infield star (Francisco Lindor) bats third, a spot traditionally reserved for sluggers. Red Sox fans will also recognize Mike Napoli, who will bat cleanup for Cleveland while trying to reproduce the October magic that propelled his 2013 Sox to the championship. The bottom half of Cleveland's order is something of an x-factor in this series, as it features a bunch of guys who only played part of the season. If their unproven young guys like Tyler Naquin can produce, the Indians can match the Sox scoring onslaught. If not, then the bottom of the order will give Boston's pitchers some easy innings. 

Starting Pitching

Red Sox

Rick Porcello: 22-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 189 Ks, 221 IP

David Price: 17-9, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 228 Ks, 230 IP

Clay Buchholz: 8-10, 4.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 93 KS, 139 IP

Eduardo Rodriguez: 3-7, 4.71 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 100 Ks, 107 IP

John Farrell's decision to start Buchholz in Game 3 is controversial, as Clay has been inconsistent to say the least, not only this season but his entire career. Thanks to Farrell getting Steven Wright hurt by using him as a pinch runner for some dumbass reason, there was an opening in the rotation, and Clay has earned his spot with the way he pitched down the stretch. In 5 September starts, he was excellent in 4 of them, going at least 6 innings while allowing two runs or less. In the other, he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings. I'm ok with Clay getting the ball in game 3, but he has to be on the shortest of leashes. When Buchholz is Suckholz, its obvious early on, and Farrell cannot give him the chance to work through it. The Red Sox will be carrying Drew Pomeranz on the ALDS roster, and he needs to be ready to come in early if Clay doesn't have it.   

Indians 

Trevor Bauer: 12-8, 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 168 Ks, 190 IP

Corey Kluber: 18-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 227 Ks, 215 IP

Josh Tomlin: 13-9 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 118 Ks, 174 IP

The Indians rotation was a major strength for most of the season, but a couple of horribly timed injuries have really downgraded their starting pitching. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were the number 2 and 3 starters for this team before going down in September, and neither are on the roster for this round. That leaves Cleveland with only 1 truly solid starter in Kluber, who won the Cy Young in 2014 and is in the running to win it again this season. Manager Terry Francona has chosen to use Kluber against David Price, setting up a power pitching matchup for Game 2. The Indians really need Kluber to be brilliant in this series, as I don't see their other pitchers keeping the Sox down. He will probably have to win twice in 5 games for Cleveland to advance.

Bullpens

Red Sox: Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, Drew Pomeranz, Robbie Ross Jr., Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara, Crag Kimbrel

The Sox have a decent group of relievers, with arms for a variety of situations. Pomeranz is a starter in the regular season, and will be the go to guy if someone gets in trouble early in the game. Robbie Ross Jr. will be the lefty-on-lefty specialist, as left handed hitters are batting just .188 against him this year. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are fireballers who can gas it up to 99 MPH, but neither are dominant and will probably be 6th-7th inning guys. Ziegler is a submariner who is particularly adept at getting ground balls; he will be a major situational option to bring in with men on base to get a double play. Uehara is the Sox timeless, 41 year old former closer, who will man 8th inning duties as the bridge to Kimbrel. Kimbrel has been one of the best closers in the game for years, but he did struggle in each of his final 3 outings during the regular season. He will need to exhibit better control in October. 

Indians: Cody Allen, Cody Anderson, Mike Clevinger, Jeff Manship, Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller

Francona will probably be leaning fairly heavily on this group, especially in Game 3. I can see a scenario in which they tag team Tomlin and Clevinger in game 3, with each guy going a few innings. The Indians do boast some excellent arms at the back end of the pen, and will feel very comfortable with the lead in the late innings. Andrew Miller, acquired in a midseason trade with Yankees, is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. The lefty has a .139 batting average against, with 46 strikeouts in 29 innings. Those numbers are absurd, and he is especially devastating against a lefty-heavy lineup like the Sox. Shaw is another strikeout machine in a setup role, averaging more than 1 punchout per inning. Closer Cody Allen has also been outstanding this season, converting 32 of 35 save opportunities while putting up a 2.51 ERA. 

I have to give the edge in the bullpen to the Indians, who have just been more consistent all season. They have 3 dominant arms for the late innings, so the Sox really have to do their damage in the early parts of the game. 

Prediction: Sox in 4. Boston simply has too much offense for the thin pitching staff of the Indians. I don't think Cleveland can win in a shootout, and I don't think they will get outstanding pitching from the mediocre healthy guys they have left. With Carrasco and Salazar in the mix, this would be a different story, but the fact is they don't have those guys. Francona is an excellent manager, and these will be close, hard fought games... but Boston just has too much talent.