NFL Preview: AFC West Edition

Welcome to my NFL preview! Over the next couple of days I will be going through the NFL division by division, picking how I think the standings will look at the end of the year as well as offering my picks for over/under win totals for each team. I will be using the odds listed on Bovada's website for team win totals. I will also be using Football Outsider's DVOA rankings quite a bit throughout the preview. If you don't know what DVOA is, click here for an explanation.  

AFC West

The AFC is a phenomenally interesting division, and certainly one of the hardest to forecast for this season. It contains two playoff teams from last year, including the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. However, a lot has also changed in this division from a year ago, which I think will lead to a new division winner. Let's get to the rankings.

4. San Diego Chargers

2015 Record: 4-12

Offensive DVOA: 24th

Defensive DVOA: 28th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7 wins: over -155 under +125

     The Chargers were one of the worst 5 teams in football last season, but things won't be as bad this season. For one thing, they almost certainly will be a healthier team than last year, simply out of regression to the mean. San Diego missed the 3rd most games to injury of any NFL team, barely behind only the Jaguars and Patriots. Moreover, many of their injuries were to important pieces; WR Keenan Allen missed half the season, as did starting offensive linemen King Dunlap, Orlando Franklin, and DJ Fluker. The result was a terrible running game that put far too much burden on Philip Rivers, who was missing his best weapons in the passing game. 

     If the offense can stay relatively healthy, I think they should be much better in 2016. Rivers is an incredibly talented QB, and with Allen back along with ageless wonder Antonio Gates and shifty receiving back Danny Woodhead, the passing game should be fine. It would really help the offense if they could get some kind of running game going, which will come down to the play of Melvin Gordon. Gordon was incredibly highly touted coming out of Wisconsin, but was a big disappointment as a rookie. Perhaps with a more consistent offensive line in front of him, Gordon will be able to find some running room. If he doesn't, the Chargers will once again be one dimensional. 

I feel you bro

     Even if the offense returns to the levels we're used to seeing from a Rivers led group, the Chargers will still have to find some answers on defense. Last year's edition wasn't very good to start with, and after a wave of injuries took starters off the field they offered less resistance than those "exercise bands" you see geriatric women using at the gym. In the offseason, the front office made some efforts to improve on D, but also lost their best defender when Eric Weddle signed with the Ravens in free agency. They signed Brandon Flowers to play corner opposite the talented young Jason Verrett, which should give the Chargers a capable pair on the outside. They also signed Brandon Mebane from Seattle and drafted Joey Bosa to secure things up front, which certainly will be better than the tissue paper they had last year. Unfortunately, this team is going to rely on Bosa to do a ton of different things well (especially rushing the passer), and he missed most of the preseason over a contract dispute. He will likely need some time to adjust to the NFL, and will have to do all of it on the fly in games that count. The Chargers were awful against the run last year (31st in the NFL), and I don't see any new linebackers or defensive tackles who make me think that will change. 

     In the end, I think the secondary here will be ok, but they will still struggle mightily to defend the run.  When you can't defend the run, even bad teams have a chance to beat you. The Chargers play in what might be the best division in football, and unless Rivers wins the MVP I can't see the Chargers getting to .500. I'm going with the under bet here because I think they will be right around 7-9 or 6-10, and the under has a better payoff. 

The Bet: Under

3. Denver Broncos

2015 Record: 12-4

Offensive DVOA: 8th

Defensive DVOA: 1st

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 9.5 over +130 under -160

Thank Christ we're done with this goober

     The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year with a historically good defense that went on an unbelievable hot streak, and an ancient game manager under center who has since retired (I hate Peyton Manning and his stupid commercials). They were utterly reliant on their defense to win games all season, which worked out thanks to quite a bit of luck. They went 9-3 in games decided by 7 points or less, the kind of games that are historically a coin flip. They had the point differential of a 10 win team. They overachieved in 2015, then got significantly worse in the offseason.

     The obvious place to start discussing what's different about the Broncos is at quarterback. Sheriff Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, probably on a horse branded with more logos than a NASCAR vehicle. Then Brock Osweiler walked in free agency, although considering the insane contract the Texans gave him I don't think you can blame GM John Elway for letting him go. However, that leaves Denver to choose from a group of retreads and low draft picks including Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian, John Shuna, and Paxton Lynch, a group so unimpressive I wouldn't blame you if you didn't know one of those four isn't a real person. According to media reports, the Broncos are going with Siemian to start the year, for whatever that's worth. Even with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to, expectations have to be pretty tempered for the offense. 

    So the offense isn't going to be very good, so what? It wasn't good last year, and now there's a Lombardi trophy getting stoned somewhere a mile above sea level. The thing is, the defense also lost some key pieces from last season. DL Malik Jackson was probably the best player in the Super Bowl, and he signed in Jacksonville. That's a major loss, as it not only hurts Denver's run defense, but also robs them of a dangerous interior rusher who could punish teams when they devoted extra resources to containing the outside rushing duo of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Denver also will be without linebacker Danny Trevathan, who got $24.5 million from the Bears this offseason. Trevathan was a huge part of Denver's success; he plays tough against the run, and is one of the top 3 cover linebackers in the NFL. The best thing about the Broncos defense last year was their versatility: they could defend against almost any personnel grouping and type of play without subbing, allowing coordinator Wade Phillips to get aggressive and creative. Without Jackson and Trevathan, it will be harder for them to do that.

    Don't get me wrong, Denver is still dangerous. Miller and Ware are still the best pass rush duo in the NFL, and Chris Harris is still the best slot corner in football. They will be very tough to score against, and will almost certainly still be a top 10 defense. They just won't be historically good. They won't have Peyton Manning's 17 leaf clover. They will have better competition. They won't win as many games. I like them for 9-7 and contention for a possible playoff birth, but the line is 9.5 so I'll take the extra half game. Plus, I really hate the Broncos. 

The Bet: Under

2. Oakland Raiders

2015 Record: 7-9

Offensive DVOA: 15th

Defensive DVOA: 14th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 8.5 over -135 under +105

Expect to see a lot of this in 2016

     The Raiders have come a long way in a short time thanks to the gorgeous rebuilding plan executed by GM Reggie McKenzie over the past 4 seasons. McKenzie inherited a roster utterly bereft of NFL talent and a poor stockpile of draft picks, and has managed to put together a very talented group.

     On offense, the Raiders struck gold in the second round of the 2014 draft with QB Derek Carr. Carr is entering his 3rd season as the starter, after making significant improvement from year 1 to year 2. If his progress continues, he is poised for a major breakout season in 2016. I see no reason why his numbers shouldn't be even better than last season, when he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 31 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. He has a true number 1 receiver in Amari Cooper, a prototypical outside star who should be even better in his sophomore season, when receivers often make a big leap. Carr also has a stud running back in Latavius Murray, who ran for over 1,000 yards last year while also catching 41 balls out of the backfield. Perhaps most importantly, Carr will be operating behind what should be an awesome offensive line. The Raiders acquired Kelechi Osemele in the offseason, adding the star guard to a group they've been developing for several years. With the interior spot shored up, the Raiders project to be above average at every place along the line, giving them the only group of blockers that can rival the collection in Dallas for the title of NFL's best. If Carr takes another step forward, this offense should be top 10 in football.

     The Raiders defense won't be as good as their offense, but it too should be better than it was a year ago. They still have Khalil Mack, a top five pass rusher who still possibly has a lot of room to improve because he is only 25. They added safety Reggie Nelson in free agency, a guy who NFL players ranked as the 60th best player at any position in 2015 (for whatever that's worth). Nelson is a ball hawk who led all safeties in interceptions last year with 8, but he can also play down in the box and contribute as a blitzer. He should give a massive boost to the Raiders secondary, which was a weakness last season. Oakland also signed outside linebacker Bruce Irvin from Seattle, a move that gives them a ton of versatility. While Irvin isn't a star defined by any one skill, he can do just about everything better than average. The Raiders will use him as a complementary pass rusher across from Mack, but he is just as capable as a cover man against tight ends and running backs. The combination of Mack and Irvin is nightmare fuel for opposing offensive coordinators.

     While the newcomers on defense will make the Raiders much better against the pass, their defense will be weak against the run. They still don't have anyone of note in the interior defensive line, and their interior linebackers are basically anonymous. While that vulnerability will certainly hurt them at times this season, I expect that the high flying offense will have them playing with the lead, which will limit opponents ability to rely on the run. While Oakland won't be contending to host a playoff game, I do expect them to make the postseason as the second wildcard in the AFC. I may be predicting their breakout a year early, as all of their key players are still very young, but even if they only make a modest improvement they should get to 9-7, which will be enough to win my bet.     

The Bet: Over

 1. Kansas City Chiefs

2015 Record: 11-5

Offensive DVOA: 5th

Defensive DVOA: 6th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 9.5 over -140 under +110

Ohhhh yeah!

     The Chiefs are a trendy pick to make the Super Bowl, and it's not hard to see why. They were one of 4 teams to finish in the top 6 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and the other three (Carolina, Arizona and Seattle) all play in the NFC. They nearly beat the Patriots in Foxboro in the playoffs, and if they had won that game I'm confident that they would have beaten the Broncos and played in the Super Bowl.

 

     The Chiefs offense is solid, but incredibly conservative. Andy Reid almost never asks QB Alex Smith to throw deep, and even when he does ask Smith has shown an incredible hesitation to risk pushing the ball downfield. Instead, this group relies on the running game and quick passes to put together long drives, which all too frequently end in field goals. Last season showed how scheme-driven this offense is, as it actually got better results after Jamaal Charles torn his ACL. Other than getting their star running back healthy, I don't see much change in KC's offense, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for a group that finished 5h in offensive DVOA. The one hope for improvement in KC would be if fourth year tight end Travis Kelce finally realizes his potential. Kelce has shown flashes of baby-Gronk capability, with fantastic after the catch ability and even better celebrations. 2016 is probably Kelce's last chance to fulfill all the potential that people have been talking about, but if he does the Chiefs offense could be awesome. 

     On defense, Kansas City has stars at every level, making them one of the most talented teams in the league. Up front, the have massive nose tackle Dontari Poe, and they get a vicious pass rush from outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston in their 3-4 base. Cornerback Marcus Peters led the NFL in interceptions last season as a rookie, and should be one of the very best corners in football this year. Eric Berry is back to anchor the back end of the defense as a top end safety. This unit can compete with any offense, and can handle both passing and rushing attacks. 

   While the Chiefs are certainly a playoff caliber team, but I do have two concerns about them that make me hesitant to buy into their Super Bowl hype. The first and most important is the health of Justin Houston. The stud pass rusher had surgery on his ACL in February, and he will start the season on the PUP list, meaning he won't be eligible to play until week 8. Apparently, the team is still concerned about the possibility that Houston will miss the entire season, which would obviously be a devastating blow to the team's hopes. 

    My other concern is with the offense's inability to create big plays. Even with Charles in the lineup, they simply struggle to get down the field quickly. This means that they are not good at playing from behind, and have almost no chance to come back if they are down late. While this probably won't be an issue most of the time, it could be enough to kill the Chiefs season if it rears its head at the wrong time. Still, with a second place schedule and a roster loaded with talent, Kansas City shouldn't have trouble getting to 10 wins. 

The Bet: Over   

Red Sox Find Infuriating Ways to Lose

     Last night, Eduardo Rodriguez had a no-hitter going with 2 outs in the 8th inning. He lost his bid on a replay review that overturned an out call at first base, which you can see from the picture above was the correct decision. It was disappointing, because I really thought I was watching history, but not damaging. When the Sox lost the game 1-0 on a walk off error? That was unacceptable. 

     Brock Holt misplayed a ball off the wall in left field which allowed the winning run to score. It was a bad play, no doubt. It was also his second career error in left field, and it was a physical mistake (which I can accept) not a mental one (which I cannot). I can't blame this loss on Holt, but it is completely flabbergasting that the Sox have now lost FOUR games on walk off errors this season. It would be bad to lose four walkoffs in a season in any fashion, forget about losing on errors. Unbelievable. 

     On the plus side, this was a major statement game from Eduardo Rodriguez. The 23-year-old lefty had massive expectations coming into the season, which he started by getting hurt. Then he got LIT UP in his first five starts, to the tune of an 8.59 ERA. He was sent down to the minors, and it seemed like all potential was lost. He made a strong comeback in July and August, and then had a no-hitter through 5 innings at Baltimore before he had to leave with a hamstring injury. He scratched himself from his next start at the last possible moment, and then got knocked around for 5 runs in 5 innings by the Royals. Maybe this 8 scoreless outing is just another blip in E-Rod's up and down season, but I'm going to choose to believe it is a sign of things to come. Since the All-Star break, Rodriguez has a 2.71 ERA, with only one bad outing. The biggest knock on him recently is his inability to pitch deep into games, but last night shows that he has the potential to solve that issue quickly. I think he should be the Sox 3rd starter in a playoff rotation, behind Price and Porcello. 

     In the end, it really is just one game. The Sox won 2 of 3 in Oakland, outscoring the A's 27-5 in the process. But that's exactly it; 27-5 looks like a sweep. It should be a sweep. But the Sox time and time again find ways to get worse results than their numbers indicate. This team has the best offense in baseball, above average defense and decent pitching, yet they are only a borderline playoff team. It's maddening, and the only guy I can blame is John Farrell. Not so much last night, because I'm pretty sure you can't win without scoring any runs, but this season in general he has been bad. Bad use of the bullpen, bad in-game moves, bad press conferences, just bad. And honestly, more than anything specific, there's the big picture. The Sox have 4 of the top 10 AL batting averages (Pedrioa, Betts, Ortiz, Bogaerts), 4 All-Star regulars, a super-high priced ace, an all-star closer, etc. etc. Yet, they are fighting for a playoff spot. This team is certainly flawed (bullpen, back of the rotation) but plain and simple the manager's job is to get the most out of the talent on his roster, and I can't help but feel that Farrell hasn't done that this season. 

Red Sox Road Trip Recap

     The Sox went 7-4 on their 11 game road trip through Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit and Tampa. The trip started off fantastically with 3 wins over playoff contenders Cleveland and, more importantly, Baltimore. The Sox then split four games series with the Tigers and Rays, stumbling a bit towards the finish thanks to some mismanagement from John Farrell.

The Good:

The Standings. 

Coming into Friday, the Sox were tied with Toronto for 1st place, 1 game up on Baltimore. It's been awhile, but the Sox are back on top, at least for the moment. 

Starting Pitching. 

The Sox have gotten fantastic starting pitching for most of this month, with David Price returning to dominance (until the 8th inning, every time). Rick Porcello continues to pitch tough, and is the most consistently dependable arm on the Sox staff this year. Hell, even John Farrell's decision to get Steven Wright hurt by using him as a pinch runner hasn't derailed this rotation. Clay Buccholz has stepped up in a big way, delivering back to back outings with 6 IP 1 Run. 

Andrew Benintendi is DOPE

The Rookie has 22 hits in 68 at bats since coming up from the minors, and he has been even better in the last week, with 4 extra base hits, including his first career home run. 

Oh and he also made this INSANE catch in the 8th inning of a 3-0 game. 

Dustin Pedroia Keeps Grinding

He has hit .370 over the last week, raising his year long average to .310. He also has 30 doubles and 12 HR on the season, so he has been flashing some of the power that made him an MVP candidate a few seasons ago. He also plays fantastic defense at and up the middle position, and runs the bases well. He has a 4.8 WAR, which is 20th best in baseball, and doesn't include the value of his clubhouse leadership. 

David Ortiz Hit 4 More Homers

He now has 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 40 doubles on the season. Its August, and he's 40. A-Rod is retired right now. Life is Good.

Sandy Leon: I think he's For Real?

When he first came up and started off red hot, everyone (myself included) wrote him off as simply on a random streak of success. Well, he's now played in 49 games, and he's hitting .369. And honestly, I don't think it's the result of luck. He has hit over 70% of his balls in play hard or medium according to Fangraphs, which means he is making solid contact. He does pull the ball a lot, which has enabled opposing managers to get him out more often by using a shift. However, I have started to believe in the Sox needle-in-a-haystack starting catcher. 

The Bad

John Farrell is Still Clueless

The Red Sox are succeeding right now, but they continue to blow winnable games late, which is where managers can really make the difference with in game decisions. Recently, Farrell has made a habit of trying to stretch successful starters as long as possible. This usually means Price or Porcello pitching into the 8th inning, which almost never goes well. If you get 7 strong innings, and the starter is over 100 pitches, go to the bullpen. Just don't push it, especially in the regular season. 2 of the Sox losses on his roadtrip were caused by 8th inning meltdowns. 

A big part of the reason Farrell struggles with late game situations is his inability to identify his 8th inning guy in the bullpen. Junichi Tazawa has been downright awful this year, and nobody has really stepped up to take his slot. Carson Smith was supposed to be that guy, but he got hurt. Same for Koji Uehara, although he might be back as early as next week. The Sox traded for Brad Ziegler, and he has had some lockdown outings but has also blown a couple games. I don't feel super comfortable with him. Farrell has been going with Matt Barnes in the 8th recently, basically with the thinking that since he throws really hard he is a good reliever. While that's not a terrible idea, Barnes has a lot of trouble walking people, and the Sox simply can't afford to have him not know where the ball is going in a big time stretch run game.  Hopefully Uehara can come back and continue to defy Father Time to solve this problem for everyone. 

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly From the Red Sox West Coast Trip

The Red Sox returned home to Boston last night after an exhausting road trip that saw them play 11 games in as many days, against the Angels, Mariners and Dodgers. They finished the trip with a 5-6 record, which is not a disaster but is certainly worse than they were hoping for.

The Good

Starting pitching

 The Sox have had the best offense in baseball all season long, but have been held back by their pitching staff. However, this trip gave me hope on that front, as the Sox starters were actually pretty good throughout the road trip. Boston got a quality start (5+ innings, 3 runs or less) in 8 of the 11 games, with every member of the rotation recording at least one. They got 3 complete games (2 from Porcello, 1 from Wright). David Price pitched like an ace in 2 of his 3 starts, throwing 16 consecutive shutout innings at one point. With Boston's offense, pitching like this should be good enough to get them to the playoffs.

Dustin Pedroia's Game Winner

In the final game of the Angels series, Boston trailed 3-0 entering the 9th, before being saved by Petey's two out, 3 run bomb that took the lead and halted a major skid. 

Game 4 vs Seattle

The Sox won, 3-2, in 11 innings. It was a gutsy win, driven by contributions from the entire roster. Drew Pomeranz pitched 6 solid innings, giving up 2 runs. Travis Shaw hit his 13th HR, and 8 different Sox recorded a hit. The bullpen had 5 guys combine to throw 5 scoreless innings. The bottom of the order provided the winning run, with Brock Holt providing the game winning hit.

Andrew Benintendi

Benintendi and Yoan Moncada are 1 and 1A in the Red Sox prospects rankings, and are among the best prospects in all of baseball. The team considered them untouchable at the trade deadline, even for an ace pitcher like Chris Sale. Benintendi is another young stud outfielder, and he was brought up to the big league club to play left field. LF has been the biggest problem spot in the lineup for the Sox this year, as they have cycled through a number of guys (Chris Young, Brock Holt, Bryce Brentz, Blake Swihart, Rusney Castillo) trying to find someone to hold down the spot. Benintendi has drawn comparisons to Fred Lynn, and he looked like it in his first showing in the majors. Andrew is 5-13, with 2 RBI, 1 run and a stolen base. If he can continue to produce, he will solidify himself as the final piece of the core of the Red Sox future, along with Bradley, Betts, and Bogaerts (the Killer B's?).

Craig Kimbrel is back

When news broke that Kimbrel would be going under the knife for arthroscopic knee surgery, projections had him missing anywhere from 3-6 weeks. He was back in 3 weeks and 2 days. More importantly, he is fully healthy, with 2 scoreless appearances and 6 strikeouts since returning. His presence steadies the back end of the bullpen, and enables John Farrell to use guys in roles they are comfortable in rather than stretching middle relievers into setup men and setup men into closers. 

The Bad

5-6

Let's start with the most obvious; the Sox had a losing record on a road trip where they played 8 games against non-contenders. They are now just 26-25 on the road this year, with 30 of their remaining 52 games away from Fenway. The AL East is going down to the wire, and it hurts to lose winnable games. It hurts even more because both the Orioles (5-6) the Blue Jays (6-5) have had middling results recently, so the Sox missed an opportunity to gain ground on both their rivals. They are now 2 games behind Toronto and 3 behind Baltimore.

The Bullpen

While the starters were generally good, the Sox bullpen had some troubles. They blew late inning leads against the Angels and Mariners, and allowed the Dodgers to pull away in the final game of the trip. It's too much to expect the bullpen to be perfect, but when you have a lead late the best guys in the pen HAVE to be able to finish those games off. 

Xander Bogaerts Slumping

Boggy was 9-48 at the plate on the road trip, for a ghastly .188 batting average. He is hitting .278 since the All-Star Break, and .269 in the last month. In June, I predicted that Bogaerts' high average was going to be unsustainable, and I have been proven correct. Xander's average for the season is down to .317, which is still excellent but nowhere close to the .350 mark he was sporting at midseason. 

The Ugly

Hanley Ramirez' throw

In the first game of the road trip, David Price threw 8 shutout innings and left with a 1-0 lead. Then Brad Ziegler couldn't keep the Angels off the bases, and Han-Ram airmailed a throw home on a potential double play, allowing the tying and winning runs to score. 

Fernando Abad's Debut

While the Sox were mostly quiet at the trade deadline, they did make a move to acquire reliever Fernando Abad from the Minnesota Twins. His first appearance for the Sox came in the 8th inning of game 2 against the Mariners. David Price went 7 shutout innings before running into trouble in the 8th, and Farrell went to Abad with 2 on and 1 out in a 4-2 ballgame. Abad's first batter was Robinson Cano, who did this. 

David Price's Third Start

Price started his road trip with two excellent starts, both of which ended in defeat when the bullpen failed to hold the lead. His third start came in the rubber game of the Dodgers series, with Boston having a chance to take 2 of 3 against a playoff-quality opponent and finish the trip with a winning record. These are the situations when aces dominate. Price... didn't. He went just 5 innings, walked 5 batters, and gave up 6 runs. He didn't have it. This game embodies my concerns with Price; if the Sox don't win the division, they are probably heading to a one game playoff for the Wildcard. Farrell, if he can swing it, will likely go with Price for that game. At this point, I simply don't trust David to come through in big games, and if he's bad in the wildcard game that would be the end of the season.  

Red Sox at Dodgers Preview

     The Red Sox finish up their west coast road trip with three games against the LA Dodgers. Since they are a National League team playing at home, the Sox will not have the benefit of using a DH, which means Farrell has to choose between playing Big Papi in the field or sitting him down for a few games. Given how limited Papi's movement has been this year, I don't think we'll be seeing much of him outside of pinch hitting.

    Also of note is the Yasiel Puig situation for the Dodgers. He stormed out of Cuba and into MLB in 2013 as one of the most exciting players out there. As a 22 year old rookie he posted a WAR of 4.9, which is really good. He followed that up with a 5.3 WAR season in 2014, which is even better. Along the way, he caused a lot of ruffled feathers with his animated play, showboating, and dickheaded behavior, but his play was too good for any of that to matter. Since 2014, Puig has been alternatively injured and ineffective, and this past week the Dodgers told him that he would not be coming on the road with the team, and would either be demoted to the minors or traded. He is still with the team, but it's unclear what the future holds for Puig. Anyway, let's get to the breakdown.  

Venue: Dodger Stadium

Opponent: LA Dodgers

Record: 60-48, 2nd place in the NL West (2 GB of San Francisco)

Recent Results: 4-4 (lost 2-3 at Rockies, won 2 of 3 vs Arizona, split 2 at Rays)

Run Differential: +68, 4th in NL

Team ERA:  3.60, 4th in NL 

Runs Per Game: 4.4, 9th in NL

The Dodgers are a good team, one who will probably be in the playoffs at the end of the day. They have really good pitching, but could definitely be better offensively. They also have the undisputed best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, who is pitching better than '99-'00 Pedro Martinez. That's the highest compliment I can pay a pitcher. 

Players to Watch

SS Corey Seager is a 22 year old rookie phenom who made the All-Star team this year. He is also Kyle Seager's brother, so the Sox will play 7 straight against the Seager family. Corey leads the way offensively for the Dodgers, with 19 HR and a very solid .306/.519/.890 slash line. He's been even better recently, with a .354 batting average since the All-Star break. 

3B Justin Turner is a veteran player who broke out in a big way with the Dodgers in 2014, when he hit .340 in 109 games. He's basically been hitting ever since, and is having a third straight fine season. He has 19 HR, and a .275/.496/.842 slash line that makes him LA's 2nd best hitter. He also looks like this: 

Ginger flow with a mountain beard is a bold choice, Cotton

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Friday, 9:10 EST): Steven Wright vs Scott Kazmir

    Wright has been regressing heavily since the All-Star break. I was skeptical that a magic knuckleballer finding success out of nowhere was sustainable, and I have been proven wright over the last 6 weeks. A lot of people have suggested that his struggles have to do with game conditions; the theory is that Wright struggles to throw his knuckler effectively when his hands are wet, aka when its really hot or raining. I don't know if that theory is correct, but I do know that the forecast is for clear skies and mid-70s temps, so he shouldn't have any wetness issues in this one.

     Scott Kazmir is a guy you might remember from his early career with the Rays, when he was another young star player who Tampa traded because they are poor. Since being traded in 2009, Kazmir has bounced around to several different teams, struggled with a string of injuries, and generally failed to live up to his potential. However, in LA he has recovered his effectiveness, with a 3.10 ERA last season. This year, that number is up to 4.41, although he is striking out a lot more hitters this year (over one per inning). Kazmir is a lefty with 6 different pitches and a lot of movement, so we may not see Ortiz start in this one. However, the Sox do have some guys with success against Kazmir in the past, so they might not need Big Papi's bat. 

Game 2 (Saturday 4:05 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Ross Stripling

     E-Rod has strung together 4 consecutive solid outings, holding his opponents to 3 runs or less every time out in July. He's definitely had his slider working, enabling him to keep hitters off balance. The one thing he's been lacking is the ability to go deep into games; even in his recent run of success, he has only gotten through the sixth inning once. However, if he is the Sox 4th or 5th option, I will take what he's been offering in a heart beat. 

     Ross Stripling is a 26 year old rookie making his 9th career start. He hasn't started a game since May 19th, so this is basically a spot start for the youngster. He has an ERA of 4.14, and doesn't strike many people out. He is a 4 pitch guy, with a curveball, slider and change to go with the heater. He has extremely average velocity, and has to rely on his curveball to get outs. Fortunately for him, his curve has been very good, with opponents hitting just .179 against it this season. I would like to think the Sox will jump all over him, but with their luck lately Stripling will probably throw 8 shutout.

Game 3 (Sunday 7:10 EST): David Price vs TBD

     Price has been excellent in his two starts on the road trip so far, allowing just 4 runs combined in 15 innings. He has been extremely unlucky to not get a win in either start, as the offense failed to back him up. I'm excited to see if he can keep his ace-form going, and hopeful that the Sox will finally score some runs for him. I have no idea who the Dodgers are starting, but it won't be Kershaw, who was just moved to the 60 day DL. Since Clayton won't be on the mound in this one, the Sox will have the edge with Price. 

Prediction: The Sox are a frustrating 4-4 on the trip so far, with a few games in there that they had no business losing. I look at the matchups and I really think Boston has the edge for a series win, perhaps even a sweep. The Sox have the better offense, even with Ortiz as a pinch hitter. Price and E-Rod are better than their counterparts, and Wright might be also. However, I really have the feeling that they will find a way to lose two of three.

Red Sox at Mariners Previews

The Red Sox travel to Seattle for 4 games with the Mariners, who they beat 2 of 3 games at Fenway back in June. They are in 3rd place in the AL East, but just 1.5 games behind first place Baltimore. We're into the final 3rd of the season starting today, and we've passed the trade deadline so the team today is what we're going forwards with. Let's get to the preview.

Venue: Safeco Field (yeah, it is named after a grocery store)

Opponent: Seattle Mariners

Record: 52-51, 3rd place in the AL West (8.5 games behind Texas)

Recent Results: 4-4 (lost 2-3 at Cubs, split 2 at Pittsburgh , won 2-3 at Toronto)

They also blew a 6 run lead yesterday before losing in the 12th on a walk off bunt by Jon Lester

Run Differential: +31, 5th in AL

Team ERA: 4.09, 5th in AL 

Runs Per Game: 4.7, 7th in AL

Players to Watch

2B Robinson Cano is the best hitter in this lineup and the unquestioned leader of the Mariners. He started in the All-Star game for a reason; he has 23 HR, and is hitting .298 with a .525 Slugging% and a .882 OPS. He hits for power and average in the middle of the order, but is significantly worse (.270/.417/.741) against left-handed pitchers. The Red Sox will be starting two lefties this series.

DH Nelson Cruz has been a bit of a boom or bust hitter for most of his career, but this year he has been more consistent without losing much power. He leads the Mariners with 26 HR, which is tied for 4th most in the American League. Cruz has power to all fields, but he can be contained if the Sox can keep the ball down, as his heat map indicates.

3B Kyle Seager has been a revelation for Seattle this season. He's been a decent hitter for several seasons now, with 20+ HR in each of the last 4 years. This season, he's already hit 20, so he seems likely to beat his career best of 26. He also is batting .284, which is almost 20 points better than his career high of .268. His development is key for the Mariners future, as they have been trying to put a contender together around their few stars for years now. 

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Monday, 10:10 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs James Paxton

     E-Rod has been much better in his 3 starts since the All-Star break. He has allowed 6 runs all together in 17.2 IP, no more than 3 in any start. He's locating his pitches much more effectively, and seems to have rediscovered his confidence in his slider. That slider is the key to the whole package for Eduardo, as he can't be effective with just his fastball and changeup. I don't expect him to be dominant, but if he can throw strikes and keep the ball down, he should be solid enough.

     Paxton has been up and down from the Mariners minor league system for the past 3 seasons, and has not done much to impress. He is essentially a replacement level pitcher, as his 0.1 WAR this year reflects. He relies heavily on his fastball, which is his only above average pitch. It averages 97 MPH, and he can hit triple digits when he needs to. He also can throw it as a cutter, shaving some heat off it while adding some movement. Paxton needs to work on his offspeed offerings (knucklecurve/changeup), which he really hasn't shown the confidence to use frequently or effectively. I think the Sox won't have too much trouble against him.

Game 2 (Tuesday, 10:10 EST): David Price vs Wade LeBlanc

    Price is coming off his best start of the season, shutting out the Angels for 8 innings. He had everything going in that one, and was consistently dotting the glove with all his offerings. He hasn't been the ace the Sox paid for this season, but if he can build off his most recent outing and put together a dominant stretch run, all will be forgiven. He faced the Mariners in June, and gave up just 1 run over 8 innings, so they seem like a good matchup for him.

     Wade LeBlanc made his MLB debut in 2008, but I won't blame you if you've never heard of him. I had no idea who is either. He's pitched more than 100 MLB innings in a season exactly once, back in 2010, and he has only 25 IP in 4 starts this season. He has literally nothing impressive in his arsenal, and has a 0.2 WAR this year. This is another guy the Sox should have no trouble with. 

Game 3 (Wednesday, 10:10 EST): Rick Porcello vs Hisashi Iwakuma

     Porcello has been arguably the ace of the Boston staff this year. He's been the most consistent guy in the rotation, and the guy the Sox turn to to stop losing streaks as he did with a complete game last time out vs the Angels. In that start, he retired 21 of the last 23 batters he faced, so I'd say that was dominating. I think it's unfair to expect him to be quite that good again, but I do think he will keep the Mariners in check and pitch deep into the game. He gave up 2 runs on 6 innings against Seattle in June, so indications are good here again. 

     Hisashi Iwakuma is the #2 in the Mariners rotation, behind only Felix Hernandez. The Japanese veteran is showing his age a bit in his 35-year-old season, as his ERA has ballooned to a career high 4.21. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, but like other Japanese pitchers he throws 6 different pitches with a variety of movement and velocity. He can be highly deceptive, and he has good control so he doesn't help you out with a lot of walks. When he faced Boston back in June, he went 7 innings and allowed 4 runs, so solid but not oustanding. I think this will probably be the best game of the series. 

Game 4 (Thursday, 10:10 EST): Steven Wright vs TBD

     Wright has had problems in the hot and wet conditions, and has certainly regressed quite a bit since the All-Star break. While he was basically unhitable in the first half, he has been more of a league average pitcher in his last 7 starts. I don'r know what to expect from him in this one, but unless he is facing Felix I would give the edge to the Red Sox offense

Prediction: The Red Sox should have a significant edge in the pitching matchups of each of the first two games, and have a much better offense than the Mariners. If we don't see King Felix in this series, I think the Sox will win at least 3 games. Given the Sox propensity for blowing games they should win recently, I can easily see them getting just a split here, but I don't think it will be any worse than that. Red Sox win 3 of 4. 

Dustin Pedroia Plays Hero as Sox Salvage Split

Entering the 9th inning yesterday, the Sox trailed 3-0. They had lost 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 9, many in frustrating, brutal fashion. They were headed for a humiliating series defeat at the hands of a dead last place team. Their offense had been completely absent all day, and their manager had already been ejected. 

But then, just as the playoffs seemed to be a fading prospect, things began to turn. JBJ worked a walk. Aaron Hill blooped a single. With 2 outs, Mookie Betts roped a base hit to right center, scoring Jackie Baseball and extending the game. Then, as broadcaster Dave O'Brien was talking about how Angels closer Houston Street likes to throw the kind of high strikes that Dustin Pedroia hits so well, Street grooved a fastball that Petey crushed. Dustin may be diminutive, but he had no doubt that this one was gone, to dead centerfield no less. Before the crowd could figure out what happened, Xander Bogaerts followed up with his own blast to left. 5-3 Boston. 

Brad Ziegler shut the door in the 9th, which was a nice result after two straight losing efforts from the Sox 3rd choice closer. So, the Sox get a four game split with Anaheim, which isn't a terrible start to the road trip. Oh, and they also activated Craig Kimbrel from the DL today, and Blake Swihart could be back as soon as next week. Reinforcements are on the way, and things are looking up.

One last note, the Sox sent Joe Kelly down to Pawtucket to make room for Kimbrel, which means that Clay Buccholz has won the competition to fill the middle/long relief spot in the Sox bullpen. I definitely don't love him in that role, but Kelly has been awful and Clay has been decent there, and it's certainly better than having ether of them start. On to Seattle!