AFC West
The AFC is a phenomenally interesting division, and certainly one of the hardest to forecast for this season. It contains two playoff teams from last year, including the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. However, a lot has also changed in this division from a year ago, which I think will lead to a new division winner. Let's get to the rankings.
4. San Diego Chargers
2015 Record: 4-12
Offensive DVOA: 24th
Defensive DVOA: 28th
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7 wins: over -155 under +125
The Chargers were one of the worst 5 teams in football last season, but things won't be as bad this season. For one thing, they almost certainly will be a healthier team than last year, simply out of regression to the mean. San Diego missed the 3rd most games to injury of any NFL team, barely behind only the Jaguars and Patriots. Moreover, many of their injuries were to important pieces; WR Keenan Allen missed half the season, as did starting offensive linemen King Dunlap, Orlando Franklin, and DJ Fluker. The result was a terrible running game that put far too much burden on Philip Rivers, who was missing his best weapons in the passing game.
If the offense can stay relatively healthy, I think they should be much better in 2016. Rivers is an incredibly talented QB, and with Allen back along with ageless wonder Antonio Gates and shifty receiving back Danny Woodhead, the passing game should be fine. It would really help the offense if they could get some kind of running game going, which will come down to the play of Melvin Gordon. Gordon was incredibly highly touted coming out of Wisconsin, but was a big disappointment as a rookie. Perhaps with a more consistent offensive line in front of him, Gordon will be able to find some running room. If he doesn't, the Chargers will once again be one dimensional.
I feel you bro
Even if the offense returns to the levels we're used to seeing from a Rivers led group, the Chargers will still have to find some answers on defense. Last year's edition wasn't very good to start with, and after a wave of injuries took starters off the field they offered less resistance than those "exercise bands" you see geriatric women using at the gym. In the offseason, the front office made some efforts to improve on D, but also lost their best defender when Eric Weddle signed with the Ravens in free agency. They signed Brandon Flowers to play corner opposite the talented young Jason Verrett, which should give the Chargers a capable pair on the outside. They also signed Brandon Mebane from Seattle and drafted Joey Bosa to secure things up front, which certainly will be better than the tissue paper they had last year. Unfortunately, this team is going to rely on Bosa to do a ton of different things well (especially rushing the passer), and he missed most of the preseason over a contract dispute. He will likely need some time to adjust to the NFL, and will have to do all of it on the fly in games that count. The Chargers were awful against the run last year (31st in the NFL), and I don't see any new linebackers or defensive tackles who make me think that will change.
In the end, I think the secondary here will be ok, but they will still struggle mightily to defend the run. When you can't defend the run, even bad teams have a chance to beat you. The Chargers play in what might be the best division in football, and unless Rivers wins the MVP I can't see the Chargers getting to .500. I'm going with the under bet here because I think they will be right around 7-9 or 6-10, and the under has a better payoff.
The Bet: Under
3. Denver Broncos
2015 Record: 12-4
Offensive DVOA: 8th
Defensive DVOA: 1st
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 9.5 over +130 under -160
Thank Christ we're done with this goober
The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year with a historically good defense that went on an unbelievable hot streak, and an ancient game manager under center who has since retired (I hate Peyton Manning and his stupid commercials). They were utterly reliant on their defense to win games all season, which worked out thanks to quite a bit of luck. They went 9-3 in games decided by 7 points or less, the kind of games that are historically a coin flip. They had the point differential of a 10 win team. They overachieved in 2015, then got significantly worse in the offseason.
The obvious place to start discussing what's different about the Broncos is at quarterback. Sheriff Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, probably on a horse branded with more logos than a NASCAR vehicle. Then Brock Osweiler walked in free agency, although considering the insane contract the Texans gave him I don't think you can blame GM John Elway for letting him go. However, that leaves Denver to choose from a group of retreads and low draft picks including Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian, John Shuna, and Paxton Lynch, a group so unimpressive I wouldn't blame you if you didn't know one of those four isn't a real person. According to media reports, the Broncos are going with Siemian to start the year, for whatever that's worth. Even with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to, expectations have to be pretty tempered for the offense.
So the offense isn't going to be very good, so what? It wasn't good last year, and now there's a Lombardi trophy getting stoned somewhere a mile above sea level. The thing is, the defense also lost some key pieces from last season. DL Malik Jackson was probably the best player in the Super Bowl, and he signed in Jacksonville. That's a major loss, as it not only hurts Denver's run defense, but also robs them of a dangerous interior rusher who could punish teams when they devoted extra resources to containing the outside rushing duo of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Denver also will be without linebacker Danny Trevathan, who got $24.5 million from the Bears this offseason. Trevathan was a huge part of Denver's success; he plays tough against the run, and is one of the top 3 cover linebackers in the NFL. The best thing about the Broncos defense last year was their versatility: they could defend against almost any personnel grouping and type of play without subbing, allowing coordinator Wade Phillips to get aggressive and creative. Without Jackson and Trevathan, it will be harder for them to do that.
Don't get me wrong, Denver is still dangerous. Miller and Ware are still the best pass rush duo in the NFL, and Chris Harris is still the best slot corner in football. They will be very tough to score against, and will almost certainly still be a top 10 defense. They just won't be historically good. They won't have Peyton Manning's 17 leaf clover. They will have better competition. They won't win as many games. I like them for 9-7 and contention for a possible playoff birth, but the line is 9.5 so I'll take the extra half game. Plus, I really hate the Broncos.
The Bet: Under
2. Oakland Raiders
2015 Record: 7-9
Offensive DVOA: 15th
Defensive DVOA: 14th
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 8.5 over -135 under +105
Expect to see a lot of this in 2016
The Raiders have come a long way in a short time thanks to the gorgeous rebuilding plan executed by GM Reggie McKenzie over the past 4 seasons. McKenzie inherited a roster utterly bereft of NFL talent and a poor stockpile of draft picks, and has managed to put together a very talented group.
On offense, the Raiders struck gold in the second round of the 2014 draft with QB Derek Carr. Carr is entering his 3rd season as the starter, after making significant improvement from year 1 to year 2. If his progress continues, he is poised for a major breakout season in 2016. I see no reason why his numbers shouldn't be even better than last season, when he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 31 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. He has a true number 1 receiver in Amari Cooper, a prototypical outside star who should be even better in his sophomore season, when receivers often make a big leap. Carr also has a stud running back in Latavius Murray, who ran for over 1,000 yards last year while also catching 41 balls out of the backfield. Perhaps most importantly, Carr will be operating behind what should be an awesome offensive line. The Raiders acquired Kelechi Osemele in the offseason, adding the star guard to a group they've been developing for several years. With the interior spot shored up, the Raiders project to be above average at every place along the line, giving them the only group of blockers that can rival the collection in Dallas for the title of NFL's best. If Carr takes another step forward, this offense should be top 10 in football.
The Raiders defense won't be as good as their offense, but it too should be better than it was a year ago. They still have Khalil Mack, a top five pass rusher who still possibly has a lot of room to improve because he is only 25. They added safety Reggie Nelson in free agency, a guy who NFL players ranked as the 60th best player at any position in 2015 (for whatever that's worth). Nelson is a ball hawk who led all safeties in interceptions last year with 8, but he can also play down in the box and contribute as a blitzer. He should give a massive boost to the Raiders secondary, which was a weakness last season. Oakland also signed outside linebacker Bruce Irvin from Seattle, a move that gives them a ton of versatility. While Irvin isn't a star defined by any one skill, he can do just about everything better than average. The Raiders will use him as a complementary pass rusher across from Mack, but he is just as capable as a cover man against tight ends and running backs. The combination of Mack and Irvin is nightmare fuel for opposing offensive coordinators.
While the newcomers on defense will make the Raiders much better against the pass, their defense will be weak against the run. They still don't have anyone of note in the interior defensive line, and their interior linebackers are basically anonymous. While that vulnerability will certainly hurt them at times this season, I expect that the high flying offense will have them playing with the lead, which will limit opponents ability to rely on the run. While Oakland won't be contending to host a playoff game, I do expect them to make the postseason as the second wildcard in the AFC. I may be predicting their breakout a year early, as all of their key players are still very young, but even if they only make a modest improvement they should get to 9-7, which will be enough to win my bet.
The Bet: Over
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2015 Record: 11-5
Offensive DVOA: 5th
Defensive DVOA: 6th
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 9.5 over -140 under +110
Ohhhh yeah!
The Chiefs are a trendy pick to make the Super Bowl, and it's not hard to see why. They were one of 4 teams to finish in the top 6 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and the other three (Carolina, Arizona and Seattle) all play in the NFC. They nearly beat the Patriots in Foxboro in the playoffs, and if they had won that game I'm confident that they would have beaten the Broncos and played in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs offense is solid, but incredibly conservative. Andy Reid almost never asks QB Alex Smith to throw deep, and even when he does ask Smith has shown an incredible hesitation to risk pushing the ball downfield. Instead, this group relies on the running game and quick passes to put together long drives, which all too frequently end in field goals. Last season showed how scheme-driven this offense is, as it actually got better results after Jamaal Charles torn his ACL. Other than getting their star running back healthy, I don't see much change in KC's offense, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for a group that finished 5h in offensive DVOA. The one hope for improvement in KC would be if fourth year tight end Travis Kelce finally realizes his potential. Kelce has shown flashes of baby-Gronk capability, with fantastic after the catch ability and even better celebrations. 2016 is probably Kelce's last chance to fulfill all the potential that people have been talking about, but if he does the Chiefs offense could be awesome.
On defense, Kansas City has stars at every level, making them one of the most talented teams in the league. Up front, the have massive nose tackle Dontari Poe, and they get a vicious pass rush from outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston in their 3-4 base. Cornerback Marcus Peters led the NFL in interceptions last season as a rookie, and should be one of the very best corners in football this year. Eric Berry is back to anchor the back end of the defense as a top end safety. This unit can compete with any offense, and can handle both passing and rushing attacks.
While the Chiefs are certainly a playoff caliber team, but I do have two concerns about them that make me hesitant to buy into their Super Bowl hype. The first and most important is the health of Justin Houston. The stud pass rusher had surgery on his ACL in February, and he will start the season on the PUP list, meaning he won't be eligible to play until week 8. Apparently, the team is still concerned about the possibility that Houston will miss the entire season, which would obviously be a devastating blow to the team's hopes.
My other concern is with the offense's inability to create big plays. Even with Charles in the lineup, they simply struggle to get down the field quickly. This means that they are not good at playing from behind, and have almost no chance to come back if they are down late. While this probably won't be an issue most of the time, it could be enough to kill the Chiefs season if it rears its head at the wrong time. Still, with a second place schedule and a roster loaded with talent, Kansas City shouldn't have trouble getting to 10 wins.
The Bet: Over
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