Before we get to my picks, here's a word of warning: week 2 in the NFL is usually a great week for Vegas. It's really easy to overreact to week 1 and throw all your money on the 49ers, or to panic about Arizona losing to a backup QB (so handsome). With that being said, we have now seen these teams in meaningful action, and that does give us something to go on. Let's get to it (home team in caps).
Jets (PK) over BILLS (Thurs)
This line opened at Jets -3, then swung all the way to Bills -1, now it's going back towards the Jets. That indicates that a lot of people were taking the Bills early in the week, which makes me very confused. The Jets D-line looked mean as hell while sacking Andy Dalton 7 times in week 1, and they barely lost to a playoff favorite. Meanwhile, the Bills looked like dogshit, losing to the Ravens and only scoring 7 points. Not to mention, Sammy Watkins is questionable with a foot injury, and while I expect him to play, he will be limited. What am I missing here?
LIONS (-6) over Titans
Jim Bob Cooter has the best name in football, possibly the entire world. Even better? That's his legal name. He's not James Roberts, he's Jim Bob through and through, in every context. That's just the best. I haven't googled it, but I have to imagine his mom's name is Becky Sue.
Oh yeah, also the Titans are trash and have a terrible coach.
Chiefs (+2.5) over TEXANS
This is a classic example of an overreaction line. Kansas City was very lucky to come back against the Chargers and escape with an overtime win, while the Texans looked solid in a victory over the Bears. But here's the thing: the Bears absolutely suck, and the Chargers are better than people think (at least with Keenan Allen on the field, RIP). The Chiefs offense was outstanding in the second half, and I don't think they will be stopped cold by the Texans D. I thought KC was a really good team before the season, and I'm not gonna bail on them.
Wait I'm GETTING points here? Why, thank you!
PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Dolphins
The Dolphins always play the Patriots tough in Miami, but they haven't been within 10 points of New England in Foxboro since 2008. Jimmy Garappollo led a competent offense to 23 points on the road against Arizona last week, and now he's getting his left tackle and possibly the best tight end in human history back from injury. I know the Dolphins defense is decent, but the Pats are going to score 30, and I can't see Miami getting to 24.
Ravens (-6.5) over BROWNS
Poor RGIII. After fracturing a bone in his shoulder, the Browns QB has been placed on injured reserve and won't be eligible to return until week 10. I was rooting for RGIII to make a comeback in Cleveland, but this latest injury makes it pretty clear that's not happening. Honestly, when I watch Bobby it looks like he's made entirely of flailing limbs, and that frame just isn't meant to play such a violent game.
As for this game, the Browns will now be rolling with Josh McCown under center. McCown might be a workable game manager in a better situation, but with essentially no weapons on offense and one of the worst defenses in football, this is a recipe for disaster. Honestly, I don't really see how the Browns are going to win against anybody, and they might go 0-16. Looking at their schedule, the only games I can see them having a chance in are both on the road, week 6 at Tennessee and week 15 at Buffalo. If they do go winless, the Browns would actually outstrip the 2008 Lions, because Cleveland also lost all four of its preseason games this year. Ironically, the 08 Lions were actually 4-0 in practice games.
PANTHERS (-13.5) over 49ers
2 PM on Sunday: 49ers bettors realize that they've taken Blaine Gabbert, on the road, against one of the most aggressive and talented defenses in the league. They regret lighting their money on fire, drink excessively to drown the pain, and drive into a ditch on the way home.
STEELERS (-3.5) over Bengals
As a proud owner of Antonio Brown in two separate fantasy leagues, I am in love with the fact that he is virtually unstoppable. Despite the rash of suspensions levied against the Steelers offense, AB just keeps on cooking. Also, can we get DeAngelo Williams to pee in a cup? The dude was cut after the 2014 season, when he amassed just 219 yards across 6 games and looked completely out of juice. Two years later, at 33, he ran for 127 yards in week 1. Throw in the Monday night emergence of Eli Rogers as the favorite for the 2016 "random contributor the Steelers pull out of their asses" award, and you have the recipe for the 38 point whooping Pittsburgh put on a 2015 playoff team in week 1. I think this game will be competitive, but with no Tyler Eifert and playing on the road, I don't think the Bengals will have enough. I picture the Steelers driving for a game winning TD late and winning something like 28-24.
Cowboys (+2.5) over REDSKINS
Dak Prescott didn't look great against the Giants, but he did look serviceable. He didn't do much in the way of pushing the ball downfield, but he might not have to against Washington. The Skins were eviscerated by short and intermediate routes against Pittsburgh, so their weakness matches up well with what the Cowboys want to do. One thing that would help Dallas is to get Dez Bryant more involved; he had just 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 targets in week 1, and if Washington declines to shadow him with Josh Norman then Dallas should be able to get their #1 receiver into favorable matchups.
GIANTS (-4.5) over New Orleans
The Saints defense is the worst disaster to ever happen to the city of New Orleans. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are going to combine for about a million yards this week. Giants fans are going to be irrationally excited about their season. These are facts.
Also a fact, Drew Brees is a different player on the road. Look at these splits from last season:
| Home/Away | Att | Comp | Pct | Yds | Avg | Lng | TD | Int | 1st | 1st% | 20+ | Sck | Rate |
| Home Games | 337 | 237 | 70.3 | 2,853 | 8.5 | 80 | 23 | 5 | 138 | 40.9 | 39 | 16 | 112.5 |
| Road Games | 290 | 191 | 65.9 | 2,017 | 7.0 | 63 | 9 | 6 | 90 | 31.0 | 29 | 15 | 87.7 |
That's insane! This game is going to be a blowout! The only thing keeping this line down is the Giants history of shitting the bed in games exactly like this one... crap. I may have just talked myself out of this pick.
Buccaneers (+7) over CARDINALS
Famous Jameis looked AWESOME in throwing 4 TDs against the Falcons. The Tampa Bay playoff train is running full steam ahead, and I'm driving the locomotive. The Cardinals might very well still be groggy from the spell Bill Belichick put them under on Sunday night, and they certainly had some weaknesses exposed. Of course, it's also possible that Sunday night just made them incredibly pissed off, and the Bucs are headed into a hornets nest in the desert. I guess I'll just have to take the points.
RAMS (+6.5) over Seahawks
The Rams have actually beaten the Seahawks in 3 of their last 4 meetings, and I think they will at least keep it close. The Rams are better than they looked in week 1. I mean, they pretty much have to be, because their entire roster struggled worse than Richie Incognito trying to take the MCAT. Of course, the Seahawks defense is much, much better than San Francisco's, but I do think the Rams will be able to scrap together a few points from somewhere. Meanwhile, Seattle's offensive line is a sieve. They are trying to get Russell Wilson killed, and they might succeed this week if Aaron Donald has his way. This is another great chance to overreact to week 1, but I'm going with the bigger picture and taking the home dog.
BRONCOS (-6) over Colts
Andrew Luck is really good. Other than Andrew Luck, the Colts absolutely blow. The Broncos are going to run ALL OVER the Indy D, and there are no playmakers on that side of the ball to turn things around for the Colts with momentum shifting plays. Andy will do his best to keep the Colts competitive, but Denver's defense at home is going to give up no more than 21 points.
RAIDERS (-4.5) over Falcons
The Raiders offense was excellent in New Orleans, and Jack Del Rio's decision to go for 2 and the win at the end of regulation was inspired. When coaches make bold choices like that one, and they work out, its a positive sign from the universe for where the season is going. Oh yeah, and Oakland won without getting anything from Khalil Mack. He's not going to be anonymous two weeks in a row. Atlanta's combination of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones makes them ok, but there's just not enough here to take the Falcons.
Jaguars (+3) over SAN DIEGO
I was impressed by Jaxonville in week 1, even though they lost. They were playing Aaron Rodgers, did you really expect them to win? Keeping it close shows that the Jags have made progress, and they are the team I expected before the season. Really though, this is a pick against the Chargers. San Diego looked great on offense in the first half of week 1, but then Keenan Allen tore his ACL. Check this out:
Evan Silva
Philip Rivers in Keenan Allen's 39 career games:
69% completions 7.9 YPA 76 TD 30 INT
His last 39 games w/o Allen:
62% 7.1 YPA 67 TD 41 INT
The difference in San Diego's offense was obvious against KC, as they managed to score just 7 points after Allen went down.
Packers (-2.5) over VIKINGS
Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night. Sam Bradford making his first start after just a few weeks with the playbook. The line isn't even a field goal? Ok...
Eagles (+3) over BEARS
Carson Wentz looked really good in his professional debut. Sure, it was against the Browns, but still.
The Bears defense isn't good either. In fact, I don't know what the Bears do well beyond Cutler throwing to Alshon Jeffrey. While the Eagles have an awful secondary, their defensive line is dominant and will make Chicago completely one dimensional. The line here indicates that Vegas sees this matchup as a pick em at a neutral site, which I think is fair. Given how much Eagles fans hate the Eagles, though, I don't think the Chicago crowd really represents a hostile environment. For Philly, all crowds are equally hostile, so I'll take the points.
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