NFC SOUTH
This division is the home of the NCF champions, the Carolina Panthers, who had a magical 15-1 season before falling apart in the Super Bowl. They are among the favorites to win it all again this year, according to Vegas, but the wind of change might be brewing in this division. Let's get to it.
4. New Orleans Saints
2015 Record: 7-9
Offensive DVOA: 7th
Defensive DVOA: DFL
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7 over -110 under -120
The Saints have a Hall of Fame QB, one Super Bowl ring, and a ton of wasted money in free agency selling out for another. They didn't get close, and their salary cap situation is a total nightmare. They just signed Drew Brees to a five-year extension that lowers his cap hit this season from a completely unbearable $30 million to $17.5 million, which gives them a bit of wiggle room. However, I just don't see this team being able to pull it all together before the end of Brees' career. Not to knock Drew at all, but this roster just isn't good enough, even for an incredibly talented passer.
Offensively, Brees' receiving corps consists of Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead IV, Brandon Coleman, and Michael Thomas. Cooks is obviously the main man here, but this group is full of anonymous, speedy little receivers. New Orleans drafted 6'3" Michael Thomas out of Ohio State to add more size, so we'll see if Drew can develop Thomas into a new wave Marques Colston. Another newcomer is tight end Colby Fleener, who showed flashes of ability in Indianapolis but never really put it all together. Now, he will be the starter for an offense that got the corpse of Benjamin Watson to 74 catches last season. If Fleener is ever going to become a star, this is the time. In the running game, the Saints have a capable offensive line and a decent starter in Mark Ingram. Unfortunately, they don't get the chance to rely on the ground game very much because their defense is about as bad as an NFL defense can get, so they usually find themselves in shootouts.
Last year, the Saints finished dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA, and that actually oversells their performance. Their DVOA was the worst ever recorded, going back to 1989. They allows an average of almost 30 points per game, which is ludicrous. They weren't good at all against the run, but they were straight up gruesome against the pass. And their big plan to fix the defense? Sign James Laurinitis, a decent at best middle linebacker. Basically, their horrendous cap situation forces the Saints to hope that the guys they have play better than they did last year. Good luck with that.
The only way the Saints are going to win games this year is by coming out on top of shootouts. Drew Brees is incredible, but he won't get this team into playoff contention. If an opposing defense can even contain the Saints a little bit, that should be enough to win. New Orleans' defense is just too much of a dumpster fire to overcome.
The Bet: under
The Saints have a Hall of Fame QB, one Super Bowl ring, and a ton of wasted money in free agency selling out for another. They didn't get close, and their salary cap situation is a total nightmare. They just signed Drew Brees to a five-year extension that lowers his cap hit this season from a completely unbearable $30 million to $17.5 million, which gives them a bit of wiggle room. However, I just don't see this team being able to pull it all together before the end of Brees' career. Not to knock Drew at all, but this roster just isn't good enough, even for an incredibly talented passer.
Never forget, Drew Brees has a rubber neck
Offensively, Brees' receiving corps consists of Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead IV, Brandon Coleman, and Michael Thomas. Cooks is obviously the main man here, but this group is full of anonymous, speedy little receivers. New Orleans drafted 6'3" Michael Thomas out of Ohio State to add more size, so we'll see if Drew can develop Thomas into a new wave Marques Colston. Another newcomer is tight end Colby Fleener, who showed flashes of ability in Indianapolis but never really put it all together. Now, he will be the starter for an offense that got the corpse of Benjamin Watson to 74 catches last season. If Fleener is ever going to become a star, this is the time. In the running game, the Saints have a capable offensive line and a decent starter in Mark Ingram. Unfortunately, they don't get the chance to rely on the ground game very much because their defense is about as bad as an NFL defense can get, so they usually find themselves in shootouts.
Last year, the Saints finished dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA, and that actually oversells their performance. Their DVOA was the worst ever recorded, going back to 1989. They allows an average of almost 30 points per game, which is ludicrous. They weren't good at all against the run, but they were straight up gruesome against the pass. And their big plan to fix the defense? Sign James Laurinitis, a decent at best middle linebacker. Basically, their horrendous cap situation forces the Saints to hope that the guys they have play better than they did last year. Good luck with that.
The only way the Saints are going to win games this year is by coming out on top of shootouts. Drew Brees is incredible, but he won't get this team into playoff contention. If an opposing defense can even contain the Saints a little bit, that should be enough to win. New Orleans' defense is just too much of a dumpster fire to overcome.
The Bet: under
3. Atlanta Falcons
2015 Record: 8-8
Offensive DVOA: 23rd
Defensive DVOA: 22nd
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7.5 over +110 under -140
Atlanta competed for an NFC Championship just a couple of years ago, but things have gone downhill since then. They started 6-1 last year, but then fell off a cliff with 6 straight losses. they went 6-5 in games decided by 7 points or less, which is a crazy high number. Teams typically regress towards .500 in those games, so the Falcons record there speaks to a team that is somewhere in the middle of the league. They had a pythagorean win expectation of 7.8, so it seems that their record was an accurate reflection of the way they played.
The Falcons have been so up and down in recent years because of the star-centric nature of their roster. They are incredibly reliant on Julio Jones, which is sensible because he was created in a football laboratory to ruin cornerbacks' lives. But it also leaves them vulnerable to any kind of injury. They signed Mohamed Sanu to support Jones and profit from the space he creates. I think some people are excited about this move, but I'm not sure why. Sanu played the first four years of his career in Cincinnati, feasting off the scraps of superstar AJ Green. Except... Sanu didn't so much feast as he did nibble. His best season was in 2014, when he had 56 receptions for 790 yards and 5 TDs. It's his only season with more than 500 yards receiving. I don't know why people expect him to do better than that with his new team, but if he doesn't then he really won't be an upgrade.
More than any lack of depth at the skill positions though, the offense's biggest problem has been poor offensive line play. Ryan has struggled at times because he is not given enough time to throw, which really limits how creative they can be. Atlanta tried to address this issue in the offseason, bringing in veteran Pro Bowl center Alex Mack from Cleveland to lead the unit. Mack should help, but he's just one man and can only do so much. Atlanta's offense should be a bit better, but I don't expect them to be top 10.
The defense wasn't very good last year against either the ground or passing attack, finishing 22nd and 23rd in DVOA respectively. One of the Falcons biggest issues was generating a pass rush; they were the worst 4-3 defense at getting pressure on the quarterback in 2015, according to Pro Football Focus. The front office did very little to improve the rush in the offseason, as Atlanta will once again rely on Jonathan Babineaux and Tyson Jackson to generate sacks. While the Falcons still have one of the best cover corners alive (Desmond Trufant) and another couple of solid secondary players in Robert Alford and Ricardo Allen, no coverage is good enough to consistently hold up with an anemic pass rush.
While the Falcons didn't do much to improve against the pass, they did make efforts to get better against the run. Atlanta invested quite a bit of draft capital in renovating their linebackers group, bringing in Deon Jones with a second round pick and De'Vondre Campbell with a fourth rounder. Both of those guys will be starting from week 1, which is asking a lot from any rookie. However, even if there's a steep learning curve for those guys early, they should be at least a small improvement over last year's injured and ineffective group.
The Falcons certainly will do some things well, and have the potential to beat anybody on the right day. However, they simply aren't deep or balanced enough to get consistent results, and they can lose to anybody on the wrong day. Julio Jones can't do everything by himself, and Atlanta needs him to. They still won't be able to rush the passer, and will still be vulnerable against good running games. Basically, they seem like an 8-8 team once again. However, they are also facing one of the most difficult schedules of any team in the league. They play the AFC West and NFC West, two very strong divisions, and they also get the Packers by way of their second place finish last year. That means that unless you think the Falcons will beat the Seahawks, Cardinals, Packers, Chiefs, Broncos, or Panthers, then they are capped at 9 wins.
The bet: under
Atlanta competed for an NFC Championship just a couple of years ago, but things have gone downhill since then. They started 6-1 last year, but then fell off a cliff with 6 straight losses. they went 6-5 in games decided by 7 points or less, which is a crazy high number. Teams typically regress towards .500 in those games, so the Falcons record there speaks to a team that is somewhere in the middle of the league. They had a pythagorean win expectation of 7.8, so it seems that their record was an accurate reflection of the way they played.
The Falcons have been so up and down in recent years because of the star-centric nature of their roster. They are incredibly reliant on Julio Jones, which is sensible because he was created in a football laboratory to ruin cornerbacks' lives. But it also leaves them vulnerable to any kind of injury. They signed Mohamed Sanu to support Jones and profit from the space he creates. I think some people are excited about this move, but I'm not sure why. Sanu played the first four years of his career in Cincinnati, feasting off the scraps of superstar AJ Green. Except... Sanu didn't so much feast as he did nibble. His best season was in 2014, when he had 56 receptions for 790 yards and 5 TDs. It's his only season with more than 500 yards receiving. I don't know why people expect him to do better than that with his new team, but if he doesn't then he really won't be an upgrade.
More than any lack of depth at the skill positions though, the offense's biggest problem has been poor offensive line play. Ryan has struggled at times because he is not given enough time to throw, which really limits how creative they can be. Atlanta tried to address this issue in the offseason, bringing in veteran Pro Bowl center Alex Mack from Cleveland to lead the unit. Mack should help, but he's just one man and can only do so much. Atlanta's offense should be a bit better, but I don't expect them to be top 10.
The defense wasn't very good last year against either the ground or passing attack, finishing 22nd and 23rd in DVOA respectively. One of the Falcons biggest issues was generating a pass rush; they were the worst 4-3 defense at getting pressure on the quarterback in 2015, according to Pro Football Focus. The front office did very little to improve the rush in the offseason, as Atlanta will once again rely on Jonathan Babineaux and Tyson Jackson to generate sacks. While the Falcons still have one of the best cover corners alive (Desmond Trufant) and another couple of solid secondary players in Robert Alford and Ricardo Allen, no coverage is good enough to consistently hold up with an anemic pass rush.
While the Falcons didn't do much to improve against the pass, they did make efforts to get better against the run. Atlanta invested quite a bit of draft capital in renovating their linebackers group, bringing in Deon Jones with a second round pick and De'Vondre Campbell with a fourth rounder. Both of those guys will be starting from week 1, which is asking a lot from any rookie. However, even if there's a steep learning curve for those guys early, they should be at least a small improvement over last year's injured and ineffective group.
The Falcons certainly will do some things well, and have the potential to beat anybody on the right day. However, they simply aren't deep or balanced enough to get consistent results, and they can lose to anybody on the wrong day. Julio Jones can't do everything by himself, and Atlanta needs him to. They still won't be able to rush the passer, and will still be vulnerable against good running games. Basically, they seem like an 8-8 team once again. However, they are also facing one of the most difficult schedules of any team in the league. They play the AFC West and NFC West, two very strong divisions, and they also get the Packers by way of their second place finish last year. That means that unless you think the Falcons will beat the Seahawks, Cardinals, Packers, Chiefs, Broncos, or Panthers, then they are capped at 9 wins.
The bet: under
2. Tampa Bay Bucaneers
2015 Record: 6-10
Offensive DVOA: 17th
Defensive DVOA: 18th
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7 over -125 under -105
People have been waiting for (and betting on) the Bucs resurgence for three or four years running. Two years ago, those expectations ended in the #1 pick. Last year, a ton of buzz about Jameis turning the team around ended with another last place finish. This year, they are a trendy sleeper pick. So am I ready to jump on the Bucs playoff band wagon?
Offensively, Tampa has a chance to be really good. Doug Martin rushed for 1402 yards last year, second most in the NFL. Martin should be successful again this year, despite Logan Mankins retirement weakening his offensive line. Jamies has a pair of huge bodies to throw to on the outside in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, and he should be a more developed passer in his second season. He has already shown that he has all the tools, but now he needs to be more consistent and cut down on the turnovers. If he can take a step forward in his second year, the Bucs offense can be playoff caliber.
My concerns about this team are on the defensive side. They were top 10 against the pass last season, and should be just as good this year, with cornerbacks Alterraun Verner and Brent Grimes being joined by 1st round pick Vernon Hargreaves III. The pass rush, which mostly consisted of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, should get a boost from the addition of defensive end Robert Ayers. The Bucs also have the luxury of Lavonte David, who is probably the best cover linebacker outside of Luke Keuchly. However, the Bucs defense struggled against the run last year, finishing 26th in DVOA. It's weird to consider that a team with stars at defensive tackle and linebacker would be soft against the ground game, but Tampa was. Moreover, they did almost nothing to get better. They will rely upon Kwon Alexander and Daryl Smith at the other two linebacker spots, which is just an irresponsible decision, and they somehow don't have anyone better than Chris Conte to play strong safety. Somehow, Tampa Bay looked at its biggest weakness and decided to do absolutely nothing about it in the offseason.
When you can't defend the run, you allow the other team to dictate a ton of what happens in the game. They get to control the pace of play, your defense spends a lot of time on the field, and your offense feels the pressure to do more with fewer opportunities. I think the Bucs will do a lot of things well this year, and will win games. They will compete for a playoff spot. But until they address their biggest weakness, I think they will fall just short.
The Bet: over.
People have been waiting for (and betting on) the Bucs resurgence for three or four years running. Two years ago, those expectations ended in the #1 pick. Last year, a ton of buzz about Jameis turning the team around ended with another last place finish. This year, they are a trendy sleeper pick. So am I ready to jump on the Bucs playoff band wagon?
Offensively, Tampa has a chance to be really good. Doug Martin rushed for 1402 yards last year, second most in the NFL. Martin should be successful again this year, despite Logan Mankins retirement weakening his offensive line. Jamies has a pair of huge bodies to throw to on the outside in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, and he should be a more developed passer in his second season. He has already shown that he has all the tools, but now he needs to be more consistent and cut down on the turnovers. If he can take a step forward in his second year, the Bucs offense can be playoff caliber.
Too hilarious to leave out
My concerns about this team are on the defensive side. They were top 10 against the pass last season, and should be just as good this year, with cornerbacks Alterraun Verner and Brent Grimes being joined by 1st round pick Vernon Hargreaves III. The pass rush, which mostly consisted of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, should get a boost from the addition of defensive end Robert Ayers. The Bucs also have the luxury of Lavonte David, who is probably the best cover linebacker outside of Luke Keuchly. However, the Bucs defense struggled against the run last year, finishing 26th in DVOA. It's weird to consider that a team with stars at defensive tackle and linebacker would be soft against the ground game, but Tampa was. Moreover, they did almost nothing to get better. They will rely upon Kwon Alexander and Daryl Smith at the other two linebacker spots, which is just an irresponsible decision, and they somehow don't have anyone better than Chris Conte to play strong safety. Somehow, Tampa Bay looked at its biggest weakness and decided to do absolutely nothing about it in the offseason.
When you can't defend the run, you allow the other team to dictate a ton of what happens in the game. They get to control the pace of play, your defense spends a lot of time on the field, and your offense feels the pressure to do more with fewer opportunities. I think the Bucs will do a lot of things well this year, and will win games. They will compete for a playoff spot. But until they address their biggest weakness, I think they will fall just short.
The Bet: over.
I regret this bet already
1. Carolina Panthers
2015 Record: 15-1
Offensive DVOA: 8th
Defensive DVOA: 2nd
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 10.5 under -105 over -125
There is a long history of Super Bowl losers experiencing major hangover effects in the following season. The Panthers had a pretty magical run last year, far exceeding expectations in winning the NFC, so they might seem like a prime candidate for a major letdown season. Vegas isn't buying into that storyline though, as they have the Panthers tied for the highest over/under win total of any team.
Offensively, everything the Panthers do runs through the reigning MVP, Cam Newton. Newton's ability as a runner opens up all kinds of options, enabling them to employ the most complex and effective ground game in the NFL. Cam is incredible in short yardage, converting on almost half of his 3rd down rushing attempts. He also scored 10 touchdowns on the ground, 1 short of leading the entire league. Honestly, what Cam did last year is mind blowing. He threw 35 TD passes to Greg Olsen, a guy who used to be named Philly (seriously, wtf?), and Ted Ginn Jr., who has the worst hands imaginable for someone who gets paid to catch things. Ginn caught just 45.4% of the passes targeted to him last season. Fucking 45%! Ted Ginn makes catching a football look harder than hitting a baseball, and he was the best wide receiver on a Super Bowl team. Inconceivable. The Panthers will be getting Kelvin Benjamin back from his torn ACL this year, so basically the #1 scoring offense from last year is adding a #1 receiver. Good luck defenses!
The Panthers defense will also look very similar this year, with one major exception. Cornerback Josh Norman became a superstar for Carolina more or less out of nowhere last season, and signed a massive contract with Washington in the offseason. Carolina left Norman on an island a lot last year, and they don't have an obvious replacement to fill that role. Bene Benwikere has gotten a lot of praise, but he's an unproven commodity. Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott has a history of getting great production from unknown defensive backs, but if he can't pull that trick again then the Panthers will have to shift their scheme to make up for Norman's absence.
Even if the secondary struggles, that won't be enough to derail the defense completely. Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly are the best linebacking duo in the NFL, playing sideline to sideline against both the run and pass. Hell, I'm pretty sure those pictures of Davis' arm before the Super Bowl confirm that he is a full-fledged cyborg. Kony Ealy would have won Super Bowl MVP if the Panthers had won the game, and has the potential to completely dominate from the defensive end position this year. Charles Johnson is back to beat the crap out of quarterbacks. Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short are both still massive, gap plugging run stoppers. This front seven is among the best in football, and keeps the floor for this defense high.
Considering that the Panthers had the best record in football last season and their roster didn't change much in the offseason, it's hard to come up with a scenario in which they don't at least win their division. Maybe Cam has a Super Bowl hangover and takes a step back. Maybe they don't have the injury luck they had last year, when they were among the healthiest teams in football. If a couple offensive linemen go down, maybe that throws off their whole running game and the offense sputters. Maybe Josh Norman was a key piece of that defense, and it falls apart a bit without him. However, even if some of those things come true and the Panthers have a nightmare season, that still won't kill their playoff chances. Remember, Carolina won this division in 2014 with a 7-9 record. They have by far the most talented roster in the NFC South, and they are among the most legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
The Bet: over
There is a long history of Super Bowl losers experiencing major hangover effects in the following season. The Panthers had a pretty magical run last year, far exceeding expectations in winning the NFC, so they might seem like a prime candidate for a major letdown season. Vegas isn't buying into that storyline though, as they have the Panthers tied for the highest over/under win total of any team.
Offensively, everything the Panthers do runs through the reigning MVP, Cam Newton. Newton's ability as a runner opens up all kinds of options, enabling them to employ the most complex and effective ground game in the NFL. Cam is incredible in short yardage, converting on almost half of his 3rd down rushing attempts. He also scored 10 touchdowns on the ground, 1 short of leading the entire league. Honestly, what Cam did last year is mind blowing. He threw 35 TD passes to Greg Olsen, a guy who used to be named Philly (seriously, wtf?), and Ted Ginn Jr., who has the worst hands imaginable for someone who gets paid to catch things. Ginn caught just 45.4% of the passes targeted to him last season. Fucking 45%! Ted Ginn makes catching a football look harder than hitting a baseball, and he was the best wide receiver on a Super Bowl team. Inconceivable. The Panthers will be getting Kelvin Benjamin back from his torn ACL this year, so basically the #1 scoring offense from last year is adding a #1 receiver. Good luck defenses!
Eyes on the ball, dickhead
The Panthers defense will also look very similar this year, with one major exception. Cornerback Josh Norman became a superstar for Carolina more or less out of nowhere last season, and signed a massive contract with Washington in the offseason. Carolina left Norman on an island a lot last year, and they don't have an obvious replacement to fill that role. Bene Benwikere has gotten a lot of praise, but he's an unproven commodity. Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott has a history of getting great production from unknown defensive backs, but if he can't pull that trick again then the Panthers will have to shift their scheme to make up for Norman's absence.
Even if the secondary struggles, that won't be enough to derail the defense completely. Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly are the best linebacking duo in the NFL, playing sideline to sideline against both the run and pass. Hell, I'm pretty sure those pictures of Davis' arm before the Super Bowl confirm that he is a full-fledged cyborg. Kony Ealy would have won Super Bowl MVP if the Panthers had won the game, and has the potential to completely dominate from the defensive end position this year. Charles Johnson is back to beat the crap out of quarterbacks. Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short are both still massive, gap plugging run stoppers. This front seven is among the best in football, and keeps the floor for this defense high.
Considering that the Panthers had the best record in football last season and their roster didn't change much in the offseason, it's hard to come up with a scenario in which they don't at least win their division. Maybe Cam has a Super Bowl hangover and takes a step back. Maybe they don't have the injury luck they had last year, when they were among the healthiest teams in football. If a couple offensive linemen go down, maybe that throws off their whole running game and the offense sputters. Maybe Josh Norman was a key piece of that defense, and it falls apart a bit without him. However, even if some of those things come true and the Panthers have a nightmare season, that still won't kill their playoff chances. Remember, Carolina won this division in 2014 with a 7-9 record. They have by far the most talented roster in the NFC South, and they are among the most legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
The Bet: over
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