NFC West
Since 2013, at least one team from the NFC West has made it at least to the NFC Championship game. Once again, this division boasts two Super Bowl favorites who will battle it out for divisional supremacy, a fringe playoff contender, and a dumpster fire. Let's get to it.
4. San Francisco 49er's
2015 Record: 5-11
Offensive DVOA: 27th
Defensive DVOA: 32th
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 5.5, over even under -130
It's hard to believe how things have fallen apart for San Francisco. Less than 3 years ago, the 49er's were playing in the NFC Championship game, and fell just short of appearing in back-to-back Super Bowls. They had a dominant offensive line, a ferocious defense stacked with young talent, a star head coach, and a young stud QB who was poised to completely revolutionize the position. Now, the linemen are on other rosters, the defense is either retired or suspended, the coach is back in college, and the QB is a controversial backup who we will see much more of during the pre-game ceremonies than we will after kickoff. Once a burgeoning dynasty, the 49ers are in full on rebuilding mode.
In 2015, the 49ers had the worst offense in the NFL, and they will be near the bottom again in 2016. Colin Kaepernick has lost the starting job somehow, and it's still unclear exactly what happened to him. While he was never a pinpoint accurate passer, his athleticism and arm strength more than made up for it. Since Jim Harbaugh left town though, Kaepernick has lost any trace of accuracy he once had, and even his running is far less effective than it once was. I have no idea what caused Kap's meltdown, but you know the team hasn't seen anything to give them hope of a rebound because they're going to play Blaine Gabbert instead. Gabbert has never been any good, and with Torrey Smith as the top receiving target and a suspect offensive line I don't see a lot of good coming from the passing game. The one hope for San Francisco is that a healthy Carlos Hyde jumpstarts their running game, which opens up some space for Gabbert to work. However, I just don't see that happening with the blocking they have and the reality that opposing defenses are going to stack the box from the first quarter.
On defense, the cupboard is almost as bare. NaVarro Bowman is a superstar, one of the best all-around linebackers of his generation, but he's lost all of his running mates. If the 49ers were a movie franchise, then Bowman is Yoda; he looks and acts the same from one trilogy to the next, but EVERYTHING else has gone to shit.
The 49ers do seem to have a plan for the future, and they are building towards it. They made 11 picks in this year's draft, including two first rounders that they used to pick up a stud lineman on either side of the ball. However, those moves probably won't help them much this season, and as a result there's not a lot I can see them doing well. There's a reason their over/under number is so low. On the other hand, they do have some winnable games on the schedule. The NFC West plays the AFC East and NFC South this season, which gives the 49ers potentially winnable games against the Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Falcons, Bucs, and Saints. They play a last place schedule, which gives them the Bears and Cowboys (in week 4 so definitely no Tony Romo). They also get two cracks at the Rams and their rookie QB, so there are 10 games they have a decent shot at, plus the small hope of a miraculous upset in their other 6. Can they get to 6 wins to hit the over?
I don't think so. Last season, their five wins were: Rams, at Bears, Falcons, Ravens, Vikings. Three of those teams appear on the schedule again this year, so they would have to repeat those wins (against teams that have improved) or find new soft spots in the schedule. They also went 4-2 in games decided by 1 score or less, with their only solid win coming in baffling fashion week 1 versus the Vikings. I think the 49ers were lucky to get 5 wins last season, and they haven't gotten any better.
The Bet: under
3. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams moved to Los Angeles. It's been a long time since that city had a football team. They left St. Louis, a struggling city that connected to the team and the place where the team had its best seasons.
Ok now that that's out of the way, here's the thing: the Rams are coached by Jeff Fisher. Fisher has been a head coach for 21 years, and his teams have finished either 7-9 or 8-8 in 10 of them. His career winning percentage is .509. He is amazingly mediocre, fantastically decent, amazingly average.
The Rams offense is going to rely on Todd Gurley to an insane degree. They should, because Todd Gurley is like Nightcrawler crossed with a pissed off rhino. He started just 12 games as a rookie, and piled up 1106 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. 46% of his total yards came on runs of 15 yards or more, so he is a home run threat. He is the heir to Adrian Peterson, and one of the last true three down running backs in the NFL. However, LA will need Gurley to be a monster, because the rest of the offense is dogshit. According to my inside sourcs (Hard Knocks cameras) the Rams will start the season with Case Keenum under center while they groom first overall pick Jared Goff. They will be asking Keenum to put together a competent passing offense throwing to the following targets: Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, Brian Quick, Corey Harkey and Lance Kendricks. Those are all real names of NFL players. You couldn't light a fire under that group even if you had a blowtorch and all the methane from a season's worth of Fisher farts.
What the Rams lack in offense, they hope to make up for in defense. Everything here starts up front, where they are downright hellacious. Aaron Donald is by far the best defensive tackle alive, and would be the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year if JJ Watt weren't a thing. Donald had 39 combined sacks and QB hits last season; the second best defensive lineman in the league had 21. He's a monster. They will also be getting Robert Quinn back healthy, so that sucks for opposing passers everywhere. Oh, and they netted former first round pick Dominique Easley from the Patriots, just in case they needed another massive human to torment offenses with. Behind the line of hellhounds, the Rams have Alec Ogletree, an insanely athletic linebacker who covers a stupid amount of ground from sideline to sideline. Ogletree will be captaining the defense this season for the first time, and is poised to become a superstar. In the secondary, the Rams should be ok with Coty Sensabaugh and Lamarcus Joyner on the outside, and with the damage they are going to cause up front the secondary probably won't matter much anyway.
Basically, this Rams team is going to look very familiar. They will play great defense, run the ball, and try to win every game 17-13 with a gritty, blue collar style of play. I'm sure LA will love it. It's certainly not impossible to succeed playing that way, but unfortunately the Rams play in a division with two of the best teams in football, with defenses just as good and offenses lightyears better. I have absolutely no idea how to pick this bet, because the Rams are winning somewhere between 7 and 9 games. I guess I'll go with the better payoff.
The Bet: over
2. Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll has been in Seattle ever since heran away from NCAA sanctions left USC, and he has built the Seahawks into a dynasty. He also made the dumbest coaching move I've ever seen, costing his team a Super Bowl in the process. After a rough 2-4 start to last season, the Seahawks went on a tear after their bye week, finished the season with 6 wins in 7 games, and came up just short of an epic comeback against the Panthers in the playoffs.
On defense, the Seahawks will look very similar to the dominant unit of the past several seasons. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are still there to rush the passer. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas will be patrolling the secondary, squeezing the space opposing QB's have to work with. Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner are back to rain violent destruction on anyone who dares to come over the middle. Once again, they lost a couple ancillary pieces in the offseason (Brandon Mebane), but the core of this elite unit remains very much intact, and barring a catastrophe they will be in the top 5 again.
The offense is going to have a bit of a different look to it this year. In February, Marshawn Lynch realized he has enough money to buy a lifetime supply of skittles, and immediately retired. Beast Mode was the heart of this team, and his absence means that the offense is unquestionably Russell Wilson's unit. Wilson went on an unholy tear at the end of last season (when Lynch was hurt), throwing for 23 TDs with just 2 INT from weeks 11-17. Wilson comes into this season with the second best MVP odds of any player, and if his magic carries over the award will be his to lose. I still think he's a total weenie, but his unique blend of skills is undeniable and he unlocks absolutely everything Seattle wants to do on offense. With Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael ready to fill the void left by Lynch in the running game, and a full offseason to integrate Jimmy Graham into the passing game, the Seahawks offense is poised for their best results yet.
Of course, that view of the offense is the optimistic one, and there's a nightmare scenario that has a very real chance of coming true. Seattle's biggest weakness has been the offensive line, and they did nothing to improve that unit. In fact, they lost their best blocker in Russell Okung, and as a result now have exactly zero above average offensive linemen. Rawls looked good in a small sample last year, but what happens if the new look running game can't get anything going without Beast Mode? Wilson has succeeded while dealing with terrible offensive line play for his entire career, but he's never done so in a pass first offense. Maybe with more defensive focus on him, Wilson struggles. The O-line get him pummeled into the ground, he gets hurt midway through the season, and everything falls apart in Seattle. That scenario is a big reason why I picked Seattle to finish second in the division, but I won't let it affect my casino behavior. This is a really good team, and they haven't won less than 10 games since 2011.
The Bet: over
1. Arizona Cardinals
It's hard to believe how things have fallen apart for San Francisco. Less than 3 years ago, the 49er's were playing in the NFC Championship game, and fell just short of appearing in back-to-back Super Bowls. They had a dominant offensive line, a ferocious defense stacked with young talent, a star head coach, and a young stud QB who was poised to completely revolutionize the position. Now, the linemen are on other rosters, the defense is either retired or suspended, the coach is back in college, and the QB is a controversial backup who we will see much more of during the pre-game ceremonies than we will after kickoff. Once a burgeoning dynasty, the 49ers are in full on rebuilding mode.
TFW you win the breakup
On defense, the cupboard is almost as bare. NaVarro Bowman is a superstar, one of the best all-around linebackers of his generation, but he's lost all of his running mates. If the 49ers were a movie franchise, then Bowman is Yoda; he looks and acts the same from one trilogy to the next, but EVERYTHING else has gone to shit.
The 49ers do seem to have a plan for the future, and they are building towards it. They made 11 picks in this year's draft, including two first rounders that they used to pick up a stud lineman on either side of the ball. However, those moves probably won't help them much this season, and as a result there's not a lot I can see them doing well. There's a reason their over/under number is so low. On the other hand, they do have some winnable games on the schedule. The NFC West plays the AFC East and NFC South this season, which gives the 49ers potentially winnable games against the Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Falcons, Bucs, and Saints. They play a last place schedule, which gives them the Bears and Cowboys (in week 4 so definitely no Tony Romo). They also get two cracks at the Rams and their rookie QB, so there are 10 games they have a decent shot at, plus the small hope of a miraculous upset in their other 6. Can they get to 6 wins to hit the over?
I don't think so. Last season, their five wins were: Rams, at Bears, Falcons, Ravens, Vikings. Three of those teams appear on the schedule again this year, so they would have to repeat those wins (against teams that have improved) or find new soft spots in the schedule. They also went 4-2 in games decided by 1 score or less, with their only solid win coming in baffling fashion week 1 versus the Vikings. I think the 49ers were lucky to get 5 wins last season, and they haven't gotten any better.
The Bet: under
3. Los Angeles Rams
2015 Record: 7-9
Offensive DVOA: 16th
Defensive DVOA: 7th
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7.5, over +140 under -170The Rams moved to Los Angeles. It's been a long time since that city had a football team. They left St. Louis, a struggling city that connected to the team and the place where the team had its best seasons.
Ok now that that's out of the way, here's the thing: the Rams are coached by Jeff Fisher. Fisher has been a head coach for 21 years, and his teams have finished either 7-9 or 8-8 in 10 of them. His career winning percentage is .509. He is amazingly mediocre, fantastically decent, amazingly average.
Definitely some poop in that one
The Rams offense is going to rely on Todd Gurley to an insane degree. They should, because Todd Gurley is like Nightcrawler crossed with a pissed off rhino. He started just 12 games as a rookie, and piled up 1106 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. 46% of his total yards came on runs of 15 yards or more, so he is a home run threat. He is the heir to Adrian Peterson, and one of the last true three down running backs in the NFL. However, LA will need Gurley to be a monster, because the rest of the offense is dogshit. According to my inside sourcs (Hard Knocks cameras) the Rams will start the season with Case Keenum under center while they groom first overall pick Jared Goff. They will be asking Keenum to put together a competent passing offense throwing to the following targets: Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, Brian Quick, Corey Harkey and Lance Kendricks. Those are all real names of NFL players. You couldn't light a fire under that group even if you had a blowtorch and all the methane from a season's worth of Fisher farts.
What the Rams lack in offense, they hope to make up for in defense. Everything here starts up front, where they are downright hellacious. Aaron Donald is by far the best defensive tackle alive, and would be the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year if JJ Watt weren't a thing. Donald had 39 combined sacks and QB hits last season; the second best defensive lineman in the league had 21. He's a monster. They will also be getting Robert Quinn back healthy, so that sucks for opposing passers everywhere. Oh, and they netted former first round pick Dominique Easley from the Patriots, just in case they needed another massive human to torment offenses with. Behind the line of hellhounds, the Rams have Alec Ogletree, an insanely athletic linebacker who covers a stupid amount of ground from sideline to sideline. Ogletree will be captaining the defense this season for the first time, and is poised to become a superstar. In the secondary, the Rams should be ok with Coty Sensabaugh and Lamarcus Joyner on the outside, and with the damage they are going to cause up front the secondary probably won't matter much anyway.
Basically, this Rams team is going to look very familiar. They will play great defense, run the ball, and try to win every game 17-13 with a gritty, blue collar style of play. I'm sure LA will love it. It's certainly not impossible to succeed playing that way, but unfortunately the Rams play in a division with two of the best teams in football, with defenses just as good and offenses lightyears better. I have absolutely no idea how to pick this bet, because the Rams are winning somewhere between 7 and 9 games. I guess I'll go with the better payoff.
The Bet: over
2. Seattle Seahawks
2015 Record: 10-6
Offensive DVOA: 1st
Defensive DVOA: 4th
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 10.5, over -145 under +115Pete Carroll has been in Seattle ever since he
On defense, the Seahawks will look very similar to the dominant unit of the past several seasons. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are still there to rush the passer. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas will be patrolling the secondary, squeezing the space opposing QB's have to work with. Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner are back to rain violent destruction on anyone who dares to come over the middle. Once again, they lost a couple ancillary pieces in the offseason (Brandon Mebane), but the core of this elite unit remains very much intact, and barring a catastrophe they will be in the top 5 again.
The offense is going to have a bit of a different look to it this year. In February, Marshawn Lynch realized he has enough money to buy a lifetime supply of skittles, and immediately retired. Beast Mode was the heart of this team, and his absence means that the offense is unquestionably Russell Wilson's unit. Wilson went on an unholy tear at the end of last season (when Lynch was hurt), throwing for 23 TDs with just 2 INT from weeks 11-17. Wilson comes into this season with the second best MVP odds of any player, and if his magic carries over the award will be his to lose. I still think he's a total weenie, but his unique blend of skills is undeniable and he unlocks absolutely everything Seattle wants to do on offense. With Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael ready to fill the void left by Lynch in the running game, and a full offseason to integrate Jimmy Graham into the passing game, the Seahawks offense is poised for their best results yet.
Of course, that view of the offense is the optimistic one, and there's a nightmare scenario that has a very real chance of coming true. Seattle's biggest weakness has been the offensive line, and they did nothing to improve that unit. In fact, they lost their best blocker in Russell Okung, and as a result now have exactly zero above average offensive linemen. Rawls looked good in a small sample last year, but what happens if the new look running game can't get anything going without Beast Mode? Wilson has succeeded while dealing with terrible offensive line play for his entire career, but he's never done so in a pass first offense. Maybe with more defensive focus on him, Wilson struggles. The O-line get him pummeled into the ground, he gets hurt midway through the season, and everything falls apart in Seattle. That scenario is a big reason why I picked Seattle to finish second in the division, but I won't let it affect my casino behavior. This is a really good team, and they haven't won less than 10 games since 2011.
The Bet: over
1. Arizona Cardinals
2015 Record: 13-3
Offensive DVOA: 3rd
Defensive DVOA: 3rd
2016 Win Total Over/Under: 10 over -160 under +130
This will be the 4th season for Bruce Arians as Head Coach in Arizona, and he has his best team yet. That sounds crazy, considering they finished 13-3 last year and made it to the NFC Championship game, but it's true. The Cardinals have increased their win total in each of the past 3 seasons, and might do so again this year. They might even get over the hump and beat Carolina, the team that ended their season in both 2015 and 2014.
On offense, Carson Palmer returns to lead a unit that wants to throw the ball deep and then throw it deeper. They might have the NFL's best trio of wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald (who is basically Gandalf), Michael Floyd (who is the best receiver you don't know), and John Brown (who is basically Roadrunner). They have second year running back David Johnson, who has taken the starting job from Chris Johnson and has a chance to vault himself into the discussion for best back in football. They have a great offensive line led by a pair of All-Pro guards in Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati, which should give Johnson plenty of space, and keep Palmer upright and healthy. Unless Palmer gets hurt again, or has some kind of mental breakdown stemming from his 7 turnover NFC Championship Game, the Cardinals will finish in the top 5 offensively.
Defensively, Arizona was one of the most creative, aggressive, and successful defenses in the league last year, and they got significantly better in the offseason. They still have all the insane athletes who fly around, and they still play a revolutionary, somewhat position-less hybrid defense born out of Arians' genius. Patrick Peterson is still one of the best cover corners in the league, and Tyrann Mathieu is back as a freakish corner/safety hybrid that allows him to make plays no other defensive back can. They still have Kevin Minter and Deone Bucannon flying all over the field in the linebacker spots, and they still have Calais Campbell anchoring the defensive front. However, they made a major addition by trading Jonathan Cooper and a 4th rounder to the Patriots for defensive end Chandler Jones. Jones is another unbelievable athlete, had 12.5 sacks last season, and is in a contract year. The Cardinals have never had a pure pass rushing beast like Jones, and I'm genuinely excited to see what this defense does when they don't have to blitz to create pressure. Without a great pass rusher, these guys finished 3rd in defensive DVOA. Now that they have one, this could easily be the best unit on either side of the ball in the entire NFL. It's just not fair.
Unless Palmer collapses completely, it's hard to see how this team doesn't finish right near the top of the NFC. Hell, they're even catching breaks with the schedule: they are the only NFC West team that won't have to face Tom Brady (they play the Patriots in week 1), and as a division winner from last year they also play the Vikings, who just lost their starting QB for the season. Honestly, there are only 4 or 5 games that I can even imagine the Cardinals losing. I really don't understand the win total here, but that won't stop me from taking advantage of it.
The Bet: massive amounts on the over
This will be the 4th season for Bruce Arians as Head Coach in Arizona, and he has his best team yet. That sounds crazy, considering they finished 13-3 last year and made it to the NFC Championship game, but it's true. The Cardinals have increased their win total in each of the past 3 seasons, and might do so again this year. They might even get over the hump and beat Carolina, the team that ended their season in both 2015 and 2014.
On offense, Carson Palmer returns to lead a unit that wants to throw the ball deep and then throw it deeper. They might have the NFL's best trio of wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald (who is basically Gandalf), Michael Floyd (who is the best receiver you don't know), and John Brown (who is basically Roadrunner). They have second year running back David Johnson, who has taken the starting job from Chris Johnson and has a chance to vault himself into the discussion for best back in football. They have a great offensive line led by a pair of All-Pro guards in Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati, which should give Johnson plenty of space, and keep Palmer upright and healthy. Unless Palmer gets hurt again, or has some kind of mental breakdown stemming from his 7 turnover NFC Championship Game, the Cardinals will finish in the top 5 offensively.
I miss you and your freakishly long arms already
Defensively, Arizona was one of the most creative, aggressive, and successful defenses in the league last year, and they got significantly better in the offseason. They still have all the insane athletes who fly around, and they still play a revolutionary, somewhat position-less hybrid defense born out of Arians' genius. Patrick Peterson is still one of the best cover corners in the league, and Tyrann Mathieu is back as a freakish corner/safety hybrid that allows him to make plays no other defensive back can. They still have Kevin Minter and Deone Bucannon flying all over the field in the linebacker spots, and they still have Calais Campbell anchoring the defensive front. However, they made a major addition by trading Jonathan Cooper and a 4th rounder to the Patriots for defensive end Chandler Jones. Jones is another unbelievable athlete, had 12.5 sacks last season, and is in a contract year. The Cardinals have never had a pure pass rushing beast like Jones, and I'm genuinely excited to see what this defense does when they don't have to blitz to create pressure. Without a great pass rusher, these guys finished 3rd in defensive DVOA. Now that they have one, this could easily be the best unit on either side of the ball in the entire NFL. It's just not fair.
Unless Palmer collapses completely, it's hard to see how this team doesn't finish right near the top of the NFC. Hell, they're even catching breaks with the schedule: they are the only NFC West team that won't have to face Tom Brady (they play the Patriots in week 1), and as a division winner from last year they also play the Vikings, who just lost their starting QB for the season. Honestly, there are only 4 or 5 games that I can even imagine the Cardinals losing. I really don't understand the win total here, but that won't stop me from taking advantage of it.
The Bet: massive amounts on the over
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