Some people like to bet on things they have a solid shot of producing steady, moderate returns. They call this type of betting "investing in solid, well run companies". Other people are like me, and can think of nothing better to do with our money than risk it on utterly inane elements of our nation's Secular Holiday. Plus, if you don't happen to be blessed enough to root for the New England Patriots (or the Falcons, I guess?), these are a great way to generate some emotional investment in the proceedings.
National Anthem
Over 2:15 -120
Under 2:15 -120
This is probably my favorite bet every year. There's no sweeter music than the Star Spangled Banner, and there's no better way to get to full mast than by nailing the first bet of the night. Last year this bet was insane, when that drama queen Lady Gaga was all set to come in for an easy under victory before she decided to tack on an absurd ending. She hit the Over on her second round of "Home of the Brave":
Naturally, I hammered the under, so I was pretty ripshit. UNTIL the halftime announcement from Bovada that the official rules stated that the clock stopped at the end of the last note of the first "Home of the Brave", flipping the result. It was one hell of an emotional roller coaster, people.
This year's anthem will be performed by country star Luke Bryan, and the 2:15 length is the longest that number has been in the history of this prop. Bryan is a real pop country crooner, he loves the spotlight, and he's obviously never been told that the National Anthem is written as a brisk march. He got it done in a reasonable 2:04 at the 2012 MLB All-Star Game, but went an insane 2:29 at the opening of the Vikings new stadium in September. He was under 2 minutes at a concert in Virginia in June, but I don't think that performance at a random concert is indicative of what we'll see from him on Sunday. The guy is a shoe-in to let the cheering build with a dramatic pause before the final line, and he'll probably pull out the old "point the microphone at the crowd" move at the same time. He's going to drink in the attention in his big moment, and I'm taking the over.
Coin Toss
Heads -105
Tails -105
Some people look at the odds of winning this bet and the potential payoffs and say that it's a completely foolish thing to bet on. Others of us see it as a great barometer for how God is feeling about us.
What could go wrong?
Tails has a 26-24 edge all time in this matchup, and while that might indicate a regression towards heads, I think the prevailing wisdom from the playground applies here: Tails never fails, Heads is for Trump voters.
I'm not going to bet on anything to do with the actual football in this game because I simply can't afford to get distracted from the task at hand. So let's skip ahead to...
Halftime
What will Lady Gaga's first song be?
Born This Way +225 Bad Romance +250 Edge of Glory +600 Poker Face +1000 Just Dance +1000 Any Other Song +110
With everything going on in the world of politics and Lady Gaga's history of activism, Born This Way seems like the obvious, runaway favorite. It's a loud proclamation of support for diversity that was adopted as a theme song for the LGBTQ movement. Come on. These odds indicate that "any other song" is the favorite, which makes no sense to me at all. Born This Way will probably be the first song that Gaga plays in full. It's an obvious call.
HOWEVER:
I remember the controversy that surrounded this bet last year. Coldplay ran onto the field to the opening line of Yellow, their first and most iconic hit, but then transitioned into the more upbeat Viva La Vida. I can absolutely see the same thing happening again: Gaga rises up through the stage in a cloud of smoke, as a nod to one of her earliest hits announces her presence: the iconic, instantly recognizable "muh muh muh muh" from Poker Face. At +1000 the payoff is just too good to resist.
Will the word "Lacrosse" be said on the live broadcast? Yes -250 No +170
This means during the actual game, not the pre-game, post-game, or halftime shows. I'm also very confident Joe Buck is aware of this prop bet. Bill Belichick famously LOVES lacrosse, and Chris Hogan starred in lacrosse (not football) in college. If Hogan scores, this is a definite yes, but I think Buck finds a way to slip in in regardless.
How many times will "Matty Ice" be said during the live broadcast?
Over 2 -110
Under 2 -130
There is absolutely no chance Troy Aikman calls him that. Buck probably does it once going into a commercial break, but I can't see it happening 3 times. Hammer the under.
What color will the Gatorade poured on the winning coach be?
Clear +300 Yellow +300 Lime/Green +300 Orange +300 Red +600 Blue +750 Purple +1200
Bill Belichick didn't receive a shower, and I'm fairly certain he has banned the tradition for anything but the Super Bowl. In fact, he avoided the shower entirely in each of the Pats first 2 Super Bowl wins, although that probably had something to do with the last second field goal nature of those games. The Pats hit him with blue after their 2014 victory, but I bet BB got pissed that it made him sticky. If New England wins, clear is the bet here.
We don't have much to go on with the Falcons either. They doused Dan Quinn with yellow after their NFC Championship victory, and it stands to reason that they would have the same hydration plan in place for the Super Bowl.
I nailed this bet with Orange last season, but that was a layup. This year is much, much harder; there's pretty good value with Blue and Red, but it usually doesn't correspond with team colors. The Pats are favored here, so either Blue or Clear is the logical choice. I'll take the value with Blue over rooting for a boring old ice bucket challenge.
This is it, folks. After a long season filled with, let's be honest, a shitload of incredibly mediocre matchups, we now have just 7 football games left. The good news? They're all going to be awesome. We've separated the wheat from the chaff, now its time to bake some fucking bread. Let's get to it.
Seahawks at Falcons (-4.5)
After the generally crap Wild Card round last weekend, this weekend starts off with one helluva matchup. These two teams played each other in Seattle back in Week 6, with the Seahawks winning 26-24 when the refs missed a blatant pass interference on Julio Jones that killed the Falcons game winning drive. Seriously, what Richard Sherman does here is the DEFINITION of pass interference:
The most exciting part of this game is the matchup between the Seahawks defense, which is in the midst of a historically good 4 year run, and the Falcons offense, which scored 540 points this year, tied for 7th-most all time. I think the Falcons will win that matchup.
Last week,I broke down how the Earl Thomas injury hurts the Seahawks defense, but we didn't see many of those effects in their 26-6 throttling of the Lions. Detroit is absolutely awful at running the ball, so the Seahawks were able to concentrate on stopping the pass. Instead of having their strong safety play closer to the line of scrimmage (as they usually do in their Cover 3 defense), Pete Carroll used a lot of Cover 2, with two safeties covering deep downfield. This alignment enabled Seattle to completely contain the Lions' offense.
Unfortunately, that plan probably won't work against Atlanta. While Julio Jones and Matt Ryan get most of the media attention, the Falcons offense actually starts with how well they use their running backs, both as runners and receivers. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 2,482 yards from scrimmage and 24 TDs this season, which is a ludicrous level of production. If you don't stop those guys, the Falcons will light your team on fire and watch it burn.
One of the best parts of the Seahawks cover 3 scheme is that it works very well against the run, because there are so many defenders in the box near the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, with Thomas sidelined, the Seahawks will have Steven Tarrell covering the entire deep middle of the field by himself if they play Cover 3. This is an extremely dangerous plan, because...
So Pete Carroll finds himself with a tough choice: focus on the running backs and risk getting torched over the middle, or devote resources to covering the pass and get killed by the running backs? The Seahawks might try to reprogram the Kobayashi Maru by having Richard Sherman shadow Jones, but that would involve completely redesigning their entire defense in just a single week.
I don't think the Seahawks will be able to stop the Falcons offense, particularly in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. So, in order for Seattle to win, they are going to need to outscore Matt Ryan and Co. Russell Wilson is really good, and the Falcons defense is not, so they do have a chance. However, the Seahawks are dealing with a handful of injuries at running back and wide receiver, and they still don't have a single above average offensive lineman. That last one is going to be the biggest issue, because the Falcons have defensive end Vic Beasley, who is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. This game will be close, because it usually is when Seattle is involved, but I don't see this injury depleted Seahawks team sticking with the Falcons in Atlanta.
Bonus Thing to Watch: the music in the stadium. (H/T Kellen Sanger)
Russell Wilson is married to Ciara. Ciara has a son from a previous relationship with Atlanta-based rapper Future. Russell Wilson is reportedly very sensitive about this, and has banned any Future songs from being played in the Seahawks facilities. So, of course, the Georgia Dome DJ plans to play nothing but Future during the game.Frankly, the Falcons should extend that to the pre-game warmups, in the visitors locker room, in Seahawks' hotel, etc...
I don't think this will actually effect the game, but its worth noting nonetheless because it serves as a nice reminder that:
The Pick: FALCONS (-4.5) over Seahawks
Texans at Patriots (-16)
Remember how I said all the remaining football games were going to be awesome? I may have fibbed a little bit. I mean, this game will probably be awesome for me because I abandoned the way of the Jedi to study under The Hooded One, but still. I may have told a little white lie.
Star Wars ends very differently if someone tells Darth Vader to just "Do Your Job"
This is another rematch: in week 3, the Patriots demolished Houston 27-0 in Foxborough, despite starting injured 3rd string rookie QB Jacoby Brissett. That's a completely absurd sentence when you consider it in the context of a playoff preview. Obviously, having Tom Brady back will only widen the chasm between these two sides. It's really hard to envision the Texans winning this game, but let's talk about my nightmare scenario anyway.
Over the years, we've seen a couple of teams unlock the code to beating New England. Its all about the defense, where you need to stuff the run, consistently pressure Brady without blitzing, and play lockdown coverage on the Pats top targets. If you can do that, your offense doesn't have to score 50; you can simply control the ball a bit, put together a couple drives, and score 20 points in an ugly 20-17 type game. That's what Denver did, that's what the Giants did twice (fuck me), and it's the Texans only hope. But can Houston put together a game that looks like that?
I would say yes, they have they pieces to make that kind of game happen. They gave up the fewest total yards of any team in the NFL this season. Jadeveon Clowney has finally emerged as the Apex Predator we thought he would be when he was drafted #1 overall, and he is joined on the defensive line by massive human/stud defender Whitney Mercilus. Ex-Patriot Vince Wilfork and linebackers Brian Cushing and Benardrick McKinney are all above average run defenders. Cornerbacks Jonathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson and A.J. Bouye are very capable of sticking with the Pats receivers. QB Brock Osweiler looked a lot better last week, leading a surprisingly effective Texans offense to 27 points against the Raiders. There is a world in which the Texans make this a very competitive game.
I still don't want to bet on him either
Do I think that world is the world I live in? Of course not. You couldn't get me to bet against the Pats this week even if you hooked my nipples up to car batteries. Brock Osweiler may have taken a step last week, but that step was from "literally cannot hope to win with this chump" to "maybe not the worst QB in the entire NFL". The Texans defense is good, but Tom Brady is the greatest QB to ever walk on Planet Earth. The Patriots offensive line has been excellent all season, especially previously-mocked RT Marcus Cannon, who is a 2nd team All-Pro. Bill O'Brien learned everything he knows while studying under Belichick, and he is maybe the 5th best coordinator the Pats have had. None of them have succeeded. But most of all, New England has history on its side. Back in 2012, the upstart Texans brought their 11-1 record into a week 14 game against the Patriots on Monday Night Football. They lost 42-14, dropped 2 of their final 3 games, and lost to New England 41-28 in the playoffs. Belichick killed the Texans that night and buried them in a shallow grave. Tom Brady took the Texans' mother out for a nice seafood dinner and then never called her again. Robert Kraft took a shit on Bob McNair's hardwood desk. This game is going to be a blowout.
The Pick: PATRIOTS (-16) over Texans
Steelers at Chiefs (-1.5)
Fuck me sideways, this game is hard to pick. I'm going to make the case for both sides, and see which is more persuasive.
Steelers Case:
1. These teams played already, in Week 4, at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers won 43-14.
It was 36-0 after the 3rd quarter. You need some really persuasive evidence that this game will be different if you want to pick the Chiefs.
2. The first thing to look at in any playoff game is the quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger vs Alex Smith is like Bill Clinton vs Aging; its no contest.
(Seriously, have you seen that guy? He's a zombie)
3. The Chiefs defense is not at full strength for this game. Justin Houston will likely play because he is a warrior, but he was limited all week in practice so he won't be in full Angry Wildebeast Mode as a pass rusher. Perhaps even more devastating is the loss of linebacker Derrick Johnson, the Chiefs' best run defender. Kansas City needs all the help they can get, because they ranked 26th against the run this season, giving up an average of 121 yards per game on the ground.
4, Le'Veon Bell is one of the best players in the entire NFL, and he's just out here killing teams. He has had at least 100 yards from scrimmage in 12 of 13 games he's played in. If anyone can feast on a weak rushing defense, it's this guy. His patience before picking a running lane is literally unprecedented in the NFL, and he could completely dominate this game.
5. If the Chiefs want to stop Bell, they may have to bring strong safety Eric Berry down into the box, especially on 1st and 2nd down. If that happens, Big Ben will jump on the chance to go deep to Antonio Brown or one of the cavalcade of other random young receivers in Pittsburgh's arsenal.
6. Playoff Andy Reid is a fucking idiot.
My mustache saves the sauce!
Chiefs Case:
1. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be going absolutely apeshit for this game. The Chiefs haven't had a home playoff game since 2010. They haven't won one since 1993. Arrowhead is a notoriously difficult place to play under normal circumstances, so we'll see how well Big Ben does operating with a jet engine roaring in his earholes.
2. The past few years, Kansas City has been held back by their inability to make big plays on offense. This year, they have discovered a double solution to that problem: Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Kelce has developed into an absolute animal, perhaps one of the most underrated players in the NFL. He can block, run, catch, break tackles, and beat coverage. He's basically Gronk with less physical dominance and fewer injuries. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill beat the shit out of his pregnant girlfriend while at Oklahoma State.
On Sunday you'll probably hear a lot more about what a game-breaker he is as a kick returner, receiver, and occasional running back.
3. The Chiefs still have some great playmakers on defense too. DT Dontari Poe, CB Marcus Peters and SS Eric Berry are three of the best players at their positions in the entire league.
Hill is a piece of shit, but Eric Berry beat cancer
Berry is one of the most versatile defenders in the league, capable of making a difference both in the box and in the secondary. Peters can (and likely will) shadow Brown all game long. The Chiefs have been an opportunistic defense all season, thriving on creating turnovers and causing havoc in key situations. Speaking of which...
4. Ben Roethlisberger has shown a tendency to throw a couple of balls up for grabs every game. The Chiefs playmakers will definitely have some chances to impact this game.
5. Big Ben is a much different QB on the road:
Home: 70.8% completion, 8.5 YPA, 20 TD, 5 INT
Away: 59.4% completion, 6.7 YPA, 9 TD, 8 INT
That's a real difference! Once again, Roethlisberger will be playing with a jet engine roaring in his earholes.
6. The Chiefs have made a real habit out of pulling games out of their assholes all season long.
7. Kansas City had a bye week last week. Andy Reid is 14-3 in his career coming off a bye week, including 3-0 in the playoffs. I have a theory about what's causing this phenomenon: Andy Reid's brain is as fat as he is. It can take us Big Boys awhile to get started, but once we get moving there's no stopping us. Andy Reid's brain just needs an extra week to get revved up, but if you give him that he suddenly remembers he has 3 timeouts per half and comprehends the concept of a 2 minute drill.
I'll be coaching the Chiefs this weekend
The Pick: CHIEFS (-1.5) over Steelers
Packers at Cowboys (-4.5)
Once again, the NFL correctly scheduled the best game of the weekend for last. I believe the winner of this game will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LI in Houston. This is yet another rematch, with Dallas beating Green Bay in Labeau Field, 30-16, back in Week 6. However, I'm not sure that game will be an appropriate guide for this one; the Packers fumbled five times in that contest, losing three of them. Dallas took an early lead, benefited from a handful of turnovers, and was able to use it's running game to bleed the game out. While that is Jerry Jones's best-case scenario, I don't think it will happen twice in the same season.
Really, there is only one reason to pick the Packers in this game:
The Packers obliterated the Giants, the best defense in the playoffs, for 38 points last week. They are going to score when they get the chance. The question is, can the Cowboys offense limit their opportunities?
Dallas' offense is built from the ground up. They have placed an emphasis on investing in the offensive line in recent years, and with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott, the result has been the most dominant rushing attack in the NFL. The ground game has allowed rookie QB Dak Prescott to thrive, working with play action to produce an endless stream of open targets all season long. He has thrown just 17 passes while the Cowboys have been behind this season, indicating that the vast majority of his passes have come in favorable situations for the offense. For all the praise that Prescott has received, it's arguable that he has had the easiest rookie season of all time.
While the Packers have struggled on defense at times this season, most of their issues have been in the secondary. They still have Mike Daniels, one of the best run defenders in the NFL. They still have Clay Matthews, who is at his best as a pass rusher, but has learned to play inside in recent years. If they are struggling to contain Elliott, perhaps they will move him back to middle linebacker.
This is another incredibly close game. Both teams have multiple avenues to victory, a plan B to go to if plan A fails. In such a tight spot, I tend to take the points. Especially when taking the points also means taking the most talented, Super Bowl winning QB I've ever seen, playing about as well as humanly possible, over taking the squad that's relying on a couple rookies with incredible pressure on their shoulders.
The Pick: Packers (+4.5) over COWBOYS
Last Week: 3-1
Season: Who gives a fuck? Its all about the hot streak baby!
The Playoffs are finally here. Let's get right to it. Home team in CAPS
TEXANS (-4) over Raiders
This has the potential to be the worst (best) playoff game ever, featuring the Brocket Launcher vs. Connor Cook, a rookie making his first NFL start in the playoffs. I can't wait. Literally I am so excited for this game I can't even tell you. Both these QBs are less qualified for this than Trump is to be President. You should definitely watch this game. It might get an Emmy nomination for Best Comedy. Just don't gamble on it, because you can't pretend you have any idea what's going to happen. In fact, anyone trying to place a bet on this game should be immediately put into rehab, because they simply can't be trusted with their own wallet.
That being said, I'm all over the Texans. They have been playing this type of crappy game all year; this is a Thursday Night Football slopfest against the Jaguars. They get 80% of their wins in this exact game every year. The Raiders have played all season as a high flying, exciting passing team. They have no idea how to win with Connor Cook at QB. They know they aren't going anywhere even if they win this game. The Texans have no idea how bad they are. They'll win.
Oh and by the way, it doesn't matter that the Raiders have Cooper and Crabtree on the outside. Remember when the Cardinals had to start Ryan Lindley in the playoffs in 2014? Their receivers didn't matter either. I remember Connor Cook playing against Alabama last year. Connor Cook is fucking awful. Oh and Raiders LT Donald Penn is out with an injury. Which means....
Clowney gonna FEAST!
The only thing that scares me about this pick is Khalil Mack. He could absolutely ruin my day. Oh also, games like this often come down to special teams play, as field position and a single big play could decide this one. Football Outsiders has Oakland's Special Teams ranked 11th in DVOA.... Houston is 32nd (dead fucking last). As I said, don't bet this game. Gulp.
SEAHAWKS (-8) over Lions
This game is going to be a slaughter. The Lions are fucking terrible. They just are. They lost to the Bears this season. Look it up. Its true. They are completely reliant on the passing game, and they have a quarterback who looks like this...
...and also has torn ligaments in his throwing hand and wears a splint that makes it impossible to bend his middle finger. I'm not so confident in offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's plan of attack.
Now, to be clear, I don't like the Seahawks playoff prospects much either. They haven't figured out how to use Jimmy Graham consistently, they are injured and short on playmakers at RB and WR, and they still can't block anyone unless you only rush two linemen (looking at you, Matt Patricia). They have overcome those problems in the past with no trouble because Russell Wilson is a Virgin Wizard, but this year is different because the Earl Thomas injury is completely devastating to their defense in ways that are pretty much irreparable.
Peter Carroll uses Cover 3 as his base defense, where cornerbacks Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead drop deep and cover the sidelines while Thomas patrols the entire deep middle of the field. This frees up strong safety Kam Chancellor to play closer to the line of scrimmage, where he violently obliterates every receiver and running back he can find. Chancellor playing with the destructive force of an angry rhinoceros allows the linebackers to blitz or play the pass in all kinds of creative ways, as with 8 men in the box the defense has a numbers advantage.
But with backup safety Steven Terrell in the game, there is a chain reaction along the defense. No other safety can cover the amount of territory Thomas does, so every other defender has to do more. Sherman and Shead have to patrol more ground, making their coverage looser and allowing receivers more space to get open. Chancellor has to play deeper, and the linebackers have to do more to cover his absence underneath. The pass rush doesn't get as much help from the linebackers, so opposing QBs have more time to throw against the weaker coverage. Thomas's injury makes Seattle worse at every level of the defense, and as a result they've dropped to 30th in defensive DVOA in the 4 games since Thomas went down.
All that being said though, the Seahawks are playing at home, where they went 7-1 this season. The Lions finished the season a putrid 27th in offense DVOA and are banking on Holden Taint to regularly beat Richard Sherman to throws from a four fingered guy named Matt. Oh yeah, and the Lions play here:
The Slums of Mumbai
STEELERS (-10) over Dolphins
There has been a lot of buzz about the Dolphins this week, with a lot of people in the media trying to talk themselves into taking Miami. Their case is basically:
1. These two teams played in Week 6, a game that Miami won 30-15.
2. Matt Moore isn't your typical backup QB, and has actually been pretty good. His numbers in 3 games as a starter: 63.4% completion rate, 676 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INT, 2-1 record. On a per game basis, he's really not significantly worse than Ryan Tannehill.
3. Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker are legit weapons who can make plays against a soft Pittsburgh defense. Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards when these two teams played in week 6, and is a legitimate top 10 RB in the NFL. They have playmakers who can control the ball and put up points.
I have to admit, it's a pretty good case, especially considering the line is so high. But allow me to refute it point by point:
1. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee early in that game, dramatically limiting his effectiveness. The Steelers played a clunker on the road, which happens to them a couple times every year. They will be playing at home, where Big Ben is much better, and he will be healthy. They aren't going to fuck up again in the playoffs.
2. While it's true that Moore hasn't been Blake Bortles/Osweiler level bad, he still hasn't been good. Saying he's not a full step down from Tannehill isn't a good endorsement for Miami's chances in this game if you recognize that Ryan Tannehill sucks.
3. Miami has some decent players and will score some points in this game. But the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell, two of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. Bell in particular has been incredible this year, averaging over 100 yards per game (running and receiving) while finishing as a top 3 fantasy running back while missing almost a quarter of the season to suspension. The Dolphins allowed 140.4 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Bell is going to slaughter them.
4. My sources tell me that the Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been consulting with former Steelers WR and notorious Blasian Hines Ward this week. My guess at his gameplan:
Giants (+5) over PACKERS
Eli Manning obviously has an extremely punchable face. But is it even the most punchable from his own Draft Class? The contenders:
Eli Manning:
Ben Roethlisberger:
Phillip Rivers:
Matt Schaub:
It's a tough call, but I have to go with Rivers. Manning is a close second though.
Regardless, the Giants offense is a mess. It basically consists of 7 yard slant routes that Odell Beckham takes 60 yards to the endzone, and a pile of dogshit. Even though Paul Perkins is an exciting looking young running back, the Giants run game is completely ineffective for some reason. Eli Manning continues to be a complete mouth breather who gets away with some truly terrible throws, and always seems to be on the brink of disaster. This is not a good unit. However, the Packers simply don't have anyone to cover OBJ. Thanks to injuries, Green Bay's cornerback depth chart consists of Damarius Randall, LaDarius Gunter, Quenten Rollins, and Josh Hawkins. Woof. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Odell over 200 yards in this one.
The real reason to choose the Giants is their defense. After finishing 30th in defense last season, the Giants threw a pile of money and free agents, and for once that strategy actually paid off. With additions at every level of the field, New York's D improved to 2nd this season. They haven't allowed 30 points in a game all season, and have held the opposition under 20 points 8 times. They can rush the passer effectively with their front 4, and have excellent man-to-man coverage in the secondary. They were incredibly balanced, finishing 3rd in DVOA against the pass and 4th against the run.
The only reason to pick Green Bay is Aaron Rodgers, who has been a superhero over the past 6 weeks in leading the Pack to the playoffs. That being said, this game is going to be played in single digit weather on a frozen field, and the Giants defense is perfectly constructed to contain the Double Check Attack. I think the Packers receivers will struggle to get open, and the Giants D-Line will get enough pressure to disrupt Rodgers. The Packers might win through some Rodgers magic, but I see this game coming down to a field goal. I'll take the points.
In most sports, the last game of the regular season usually just isn't very important. Two teams being tied after 81 or 161 games is rare, and it's even more unlikely for those two teams to be competing for the same playoff spots within a division or league. That's all different in the NFL, where teams only get 16 chances to separate themselves from the competition. Week 17 is often the de facto start of the playoffs, with a bunch of win-or-go-home games on the slate. This year is relatively light on the drama, but there are still a handful of games that could make a big impact on the playoff picture. Let's get to it. (Home team in CAPS)
DOLPHINS (+9.5) over Patriots
Your weekly reminder that Ryan Tannehill is a lucky SOB
Despite the presence of Matt Moore on the Dolphins roster, both of these teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs, but we still don't know where either will be seeded. The Patriots sit in their rightful place atop the AFC, but a loss and a Raiders win would drop them to the #2 seed. This scenario is de ja vu for Pats fans, who will remember that New England was in poll position for the #1 seed before losing their final two games last year, resulting in a trip to Denver for the AFC Championship game that we're not gonna talk about. Brady and Belichick have been pretty open about not wanting to make the same mistake again this year, but the scenario is definitely different. Even if the Pats do end up as the #2 seed, the only place they might have to travel would be to Oakland, where they would face Matt McGloin for a Super Bowl ticket. That's far from a nightmare scenario, and may be enough for Belichick to play this game in Miami very conservatively. However, The Hooded One is not a big fan of resting players, and almost certainly won't want his defense to lose the momentum they've built up over the past month. With one bye week already secured, there is also less need for rest.
For Miami, the stakes are a whole lot higher. If they lose, they will be locked into the #6 seed, which means a trip to Pittsburgh. If they win, they have a chance to jump to the #5 seed, which means a matchup with the Texans. Facing Ben Roethlisberger vs facing Tom Savage is about as life-or-death as it gets.
While I think both teams will be trying in this one, the Dolphins definitely need it more. They are at home, where they always play the Pats tough. Belichick will probably start everyone, but the gameplan will be vanilla and conservative, especially on offense. I don't see the Pats winning by double digits, so I'll take the points.
BRONCOS (-1.5) over Raiders
The Broncos are out of the playoffs.
The Raiders can move up to the 1 seed with a win, or fall all the way to the 5 seed with a loss. They have plenty of motivation, but they also have to start Matt McGloin at QB thanks to Derek Carr's brutal broken leg. One of the most difficult adjustments for inexperienced signal callers to make is to the speed of the NFL game; even playing in preseason doesn't really get you ready for how fast football is on Sunday. It seems downright unfair then that McGloin's first start since 2013 will be in Denver. If the game feels too fast for him already, Von Miller is going to feel like The Flash wielding Thor's hammer.
Oh yeah, and if the Raiders do lose, we will get a Matt McGloin vs. Tom Savage matchup in the first round. As a fan of hilariously terrible football, I am extremely excited for this.
Chiefs (-5.5) over CHARGERS
The Chiefs currently hold the 5 seed, but could jump up to the 2 seed with a win and a Raiders loss. Thats the difference between going to Houston on wildcard weekend and staying home. From the neutral perspective, we should be rooting for the Chiefs to lose in week 17 so they can get rid of the Texans (as, of course, is tradition). Alex Smith is going to be the third best QB in the AFC playoffs. Woof.
The Chargers have endured an absolutely miserable season destroyed by early injuries to key players and an incredible ability to find creative ways to lose. I have no idea what they might be playing for, and they have literally no home field advantage. This line should be at least 7.
Pretty much sums it up
Seahawks (-9.5) over 49ERS
Unlike in years past, the Seahawks have been stumbling towards the finish line, with key player after key player going down with injuries. Safety Earl Thomas is out for the season, as is WR Tyler Lockett and RB C.J. Prosise. They are 2-3 in their last 5 games, and simply haven't looked as dominant as they used to. They are still dangerous, but they could really use a win this week to set up their playoff run. Currently the #3 seed, they are slated to host whoever snags the final spot, with a trip to Atlanta in the divisional round. However, with a win and a Falcons loss, Seattle would move up to the 2 seed, getting a bye and then hosting the Divisional Round. Given how much of an advantage the Seahawks crowd gives them, the difference between the 2 and 3 seeds could be huge. With a loss here, the Seahawks would fall to the 4 seed, setting up a matchup with the Giants on Wild Card Weekend. Seattle has everything to play for, and the San Francisco actually has incentive to lose because of the draft. I simply can't see the 49ers keeping it competitive.
Saints (+7) over FALCONS
This is a HUGE game for Atlanta. If they can catch Seattle for the 2 seed, their path through the playoffs would be entirely in domed stadiums, including the Super Bowl in Houston. If they can't catch Seattle, they will host a wildcard game and then have to travel to Seattle. That's not an easy path, especially for a team that relies on its high powered offense.
The Saints have no chance to make the playoffs, so why am I picking them? Well, first because these teams HATE each other, which should provide plenty of motivation for New Orleans to play spoiler. Secondly, I don't think the Falcons are that much better of a team; both are all offense no defense squads that rely on explosive passing games. The Falcons are better, but not by that much. But mostly, this is just one of those games that teams from Atlanta lose. Especially at home. Its just the way it goes. Sorry ATL. At least Gucci Mane is out of jail?
Giants (+7.5) over REDSKINS
The Giants are locked into the #5 seed, and will play on the road against Atlanta, Green Bay or Detroit. Nothing they do in this game will change that. The Redskins need to win to lock up the #6 seed (unless the Packers and Lions tie), and a loss will eliminate them from the playoffs. On paper, the Giants should rest all of their starters, giving Washington an easy win. But I don't think the Giants play it that way. This team is on fire, and wants to keep it rolling into the playoffs. Hell, Victor Cruz was even talking this week about a Super Bowl trilogy matchup against the Pats, so you know the Giants feel like they are going on another one of their runs (this will drive me insane, btw). Additionally, the Redskins play in Washington, which might be the only city with a better history of playoff duds than Atlanta. The Redskins may win this game (and the playoff spot) in the end, but they definitely won't make it easy on themselves. Even if they are facing New York's backups, this will be a one score game.
Your weekly reminder that Eli Manning is a mouth breathing goober
Packers (-3.5) over LIONS
This is the only true win-or-go-home matchup this week, and appropriately it has been flexed into the Sunday Night TV slot. Technically, both teams would advance to the postseason with a tie, but this isn't soccer so we aren't going to see 75 minutes of Stafford and Rodgers kneeling. They are going to fight for the win, and its pretty easy to see why the Packers are favored despite being on the road. They have won 5 straight games, with Rodgers posting passer ratings above 100 in 4 of them. Perhaps more importantly, they have improved their defense, which was getting absolutely shredded earlier in the year. While still certainly far from a solid unit, Green Bay is no longer giving up video game stats every week. With Rodgers and the offense cruising like they are, just getting in the Lions way might be enough, and honestly, they might not even have to do that because...
The Lions suck. Yes, they have won 9 games, but they are also 8-4 in games decided by 7 points or less. You read that correctly, 12 of the Lions 15 games this year came down to the final possession. There is a ton of statistical evidence that says that a team's record in close games mostly comes down to chance in the NFL, so the Lions are closer to a .500 team than the playoff contender they've been all season. They have gotten whooped in both of their last two games, 42-21 to the Cowboys and a 17-6 scoreline against the Giants that should have been about 50-6. Detroit fans are probably banking on the Packers defense being awful, but the Lions offense hasn't been much better: they are 17th in offensive DVOA for the season, and 31st over the last month. They have absolutely no running game, and even with a ton of volume, Stafford has thrown for more than 300 yards just once since week 3.
The Packers are running hot, the Lions are in a tailspin. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, the Lions do not. The Packers are the Packers, and the Lions play here:
That's actually a picture of Aleppo, but you didn't know that and nobody can blame you.
Last week was an all-time disaster for NFL gamblers. Underdogs were winning outright, home field advantage meant nothing, and just about everyone who picks games got waxed. I picked a hell of a week to take my bye!
As always, home team in CAPS
Broncos (-3.5) over CHARGERS
I thought the Broncos pass rush would eat Philip Rivers alive and the Denver offense would do enough for an easy victory. Instead, the opposite happened; the Chargers defense completely stymied Denver's offense, and the home team scrapped together just enough points to beat the defending Super Bowl Champions. Great start to the week.
Bengals (+9.5) over PATRIOTS
I love Tom Brady and this two tight end offense with Martellus Bennett and Gronk is the NFL equivalent of Dr. Manhattan. It's never a fair fight. The Patriots are going to win this game.
That being said, I liked this line a lot more where it opened, at 6.5. The Bengals are better than they have played so far, and they have plenty of offensive weapons to get the kind of cheap second half scores that Belichick doesn't mind giving up when his team is up big. This one screams backdoor cover.
Ravens (+3) over GIANTS
The Ravens just fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, a move that should have happened before he was even interviewed for the job. It seems that an inability to establish the running game was the biggest problem (cut to every person in Chicago nodding vigorously), so we should see a healthy dose of the backfield in the first week under Marty Morninweg. On the other hand, Baltimore is turning to Marty Morninweg as their savior. Woof. Meanwhile, the Giants have been running the same offense for about a decade: Eli Manning, a solid crew of receivers, no TE and no running game whatsoever. They're the result of a bad fantasy draft in Madden. Both these teams have been pretty bad offensively this year, but there is reason to believe one of them might improve this week.
Rams (+3) over LIONS
The Rams are 3-2, which means they are still one loss away from Jeff Fisher Equilibrium. Plus, they are still starting Kase Keenum at QB for some reason. Todd Gurley has run for an astoundingly terrible 2.7 yards per carry, although that might not be a surprise since he is literally the only thing the Rams have going for them on offense. However, if there is a week for him to get going, its this one, as the Lions are 28th in DVOA against the run. More than anything though, this is a pick against the Lions. I think Detroit is just terrible. They lost to the Bears. They were extremely lucky to beat the Eagles last week, needing a late fumble to come back and win. Matt Stafford can throw the ball, but he has to because they have maybe the worst running game in the NFL. They can't stop the run or the pass, and are dead last in defensive DVOA. Give me LA Fisher!!
The bathroom is all the way over there?
Eagles (-3) over REDSKINS
Taking a rookie QB as a road favorite should make me nervous. But, the NFL in 2016 makes absolutely no sense. This line is definitely a reflection of how bad Washington has looked this season, as they are a veeeery ugly 3-2. Philly is 2nd in defensive DVOA, and has been especially good against the pass (remember that complete destruction of Pittsburgh?) The Redskins have a ton of weapons on offense, and that should make them better than they are. Unfortunately, Captain Kirk hasn't been playing well, and he will have another tough day here.
Panthers (-2.5) over SAINTS
The hangover for Super Bowl losers is a well documented phenomenon, and it has hit the Panthers harder than usual, exacerbated by injuries to Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart. Good news: Newton will be back this week, with Stewart possibly playing a role as well. I don't think the Panthers were as good as their 15-1 record last season, but they aren't as bad as their 1-4 record this season. I think they get the offense going in this one, and their upcoming schedule is pretty friendly (Cardinals, at Rams, Chiefs, Saints) so they could go on a little run here.
The key to this game will be the matchup of Drew Brees against the Panthers secondary. While the defense was a huge strength last season, Carolina has fallen to the middle of the pack in DVOA this year, and they are 22nd against the pass. Brees must have been salivating watching Matt Ryan destroy them a couple weeks ago, and he is at home. However, I just think this Panthers team has to regress upwards at some point, and Im picking this week for it to start.
49ers (+8) over BILLS
A lot of people are going to be watching this game, because Colin Kaepernick will be getting the start at QB for the 49ers. I don't give a shit. I don't think he makes much of a difference on the field; if he was really going to light the world on fire, Chip Kelly would have gone to the running QB much sooner. However, I also don't think the Bills should be favored by more than a TD against anyone. They haven't won 4 straight since 2008, and I can totally see them giving this one away completely with dumb penalties, turnovers, and inexplicable mental mistakes. It's just what the Bills do.
Steelers (-7) over DOLPHINS
Have you watched the Dolphins play offense this year? If you're reading this, I'm assuming you haven't, because it will burn your eyeballs out of your skull. The average Miami drive lasts 4.5 plays, last in the NFL. They turn it over on 18.3% of their possessions, which is 4th worst. They score on 23% of possessions, which is also dead last. I know Pittsburgh is banged up, and doesn't have an elite defense to begin with, but come on. This is going to be a demolition.
TITANS (-7) over Browns
This is one of the worst matchups I have ever seen, and somehow this is the fourth season in a row to feature these two teams playing. The Browns are hoping to have Cody Kessler healthy at QB this week, which is an incredibly depressing best case scenario. They're going 0-16. Let's move on.
Falcons (+7) over SEAHAWKS
This line makes no sense to me. The Falcons offense looks absolutely legit, and they just beat a team with outstanding defense and offensive issues last week. The Seahawks are at home, and the weather is expected to be bad, which will hurt the Falcons passing game. However, I just don't see how Seattle wins by more than a TD. This is one of the best matchups of the week, but of course it won't be in prime time because the NFL doesn't give a fuck.
Chiefs (-2) over RAIDERS
Andy Reid is 15-2 after a bye week. The Chiefs got absolutely massacred by the Steelers the last time they played. They will be incredibly well prepared and fired up for this divisional game. Also, Jamaal Charles is off the injury report, meaning he could have a triumphant return to the field. It will be interesting to watch what role Stephen Ware plays in this backfield moving forwards. I think the Raiders are good, but they are flying a little too high right now at 4-1. This is a classic comedown game for them, as they come unraveled under the pressure of Kansas City's execution. This could also be a big Jeremy Maclin week, as the Raiders are 29th in pass defense DVOA and particularly vulnerable against WRs.
PACKERS (-4.5) over Cowboys
The juiciest matchup to watch in this one is the Cowboys running game against the Packers front seven. Green Bay is 2nd in rush defense DVOA, while Dallas has football's best running game. If the Packers can fight that battle to a draw, they will have the edge as I don't see much about this Dallas defense that will concern Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been far from spectacular this season, but his offensive line is playing very well, and I think he will put some points on the board at home.
BEARS (-1.5) over Jaguars
If this isn't the worst game of the 2016 season there should be a riot.
Colts (+3) over TEXANS
For those of you keeping track, that's the 5th time I've used the poop emoji to describe a game. Seriously though, why the hell is this game in primetime? Both of these teams suck. There are a handful of much more compelling games to choose from. I don't care that both teams are playoff contenders because of their shit division. I really don't want to talk about this game, and I certainly don't want to watch it. What the hell.
In 2014, Andrew Luck was sacked 27 times in 16 games. That was a problem. He has been sacked 20 times in 5 games so far this season, which is a violation of his human rights. Ryan Grigson is terrible at being a GM. However, the Colts still have Luck, who is far better than anyone on the Texans with no JJ Watt. Im done talking about this.
Cardinals (-7) over JETS
The Jets secondary is atrocious. They are dead last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, and that might be underselling how bad they are. Carson Palmer is back for this one, and I think he has a massive day. New York simply doesn't have anyone who can stay with John Brown deep, and they certainly can't cover Larry Fitzgerald and all the other Cardinals weapons at the same time. The Cardinals have been dysfunctional this season, and have massively underperformed expectations, but if there is a team to turn it around against, this week is it. Also, Eric Decker went on IR this week and Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the Jets QB. Don't be scared of the big line.
It's playoff time baby! After back-to-back last place finishes, the Red Sox are back in the postseason for the first time since 2013. Somebody remind me how that turned out...
nice smile Buchholz you creepy fuck
The first step in repeating that feat is beating the Cleveland Indians, with game 1 starting today. Here's everything you need to know about the series.
Season Series: 4-2 Red Sox, with Boston taking 2 of 3 in both series the teams played this year.
Schedule
Game 1: Cleveland, Thursday @ 8 PM EST
Game 2: Cleveland, Friday @ 4:30 PM EST
Game 3: Boston, Sunday @ 4 PM EST
Game 4 (if necessary): Boston, Monday TBD
Game 5 (If necessary): Cleveland, Wednesday, TBD
Cleveland has home field advantage in the series by virtue of winning 1 more game than the Sox during the regular season. They were 53-28 at home, tied for 2nd best in MLB, so this could definitely play a big role in the series.
The Red Sox offense was dominant during the regular season, scoring an MLB-best 878 runs during the regular season. The top of the order is completely devastating, anchored by possible MVP Mookie Betts and the living legend Big Papi, along with a massively resurgent Hanley Ramirez. Dustin Pedroia is hitting as well as he ever has right now, and doing a great job setting the table for the power guys. Hanley Ramirez is red hot, riding a power surge that saw him belt 10 home runs in the month of September alone. If Mookie Betts does indeed win MVP, it will be in large part because he was a destroyer of worlds down the stretch, batting .330 over the final month of the season. If the Sox can get guys like Jackie Baseball and Xander Bogaerts going like they were earlier in the year, this lineup will be completely unstoppable.
While Cleveland can't quite match the top-to-bottom balance of the Red Sox, they are a very strong offensive team in their own right. They scored 777 runs, good for 5th best in baseball. The Indians hit just 185 homers this yar (18th in MLB), but make up for it with clutch hitting and speed on the basepaths (they stole 134 bases as a team, best in the American League). They feature a very unusual lineup construction, as their leadoff hitter is a first baseman who is tied for the team lead in HR and isn't a threat to steal. Meanwhile, their speedy middle infield star (Francisco Lindor) bats third, a spot traditionally reserved for sluggers. Red Sox fans will also recognize Mike Napoli, who will bat cleanup for Cleveland while trying to reproduce the October magic that propelled his 2013 Sox to the championship. The bottom half of Cleveland's order is something of an x-factor in this series, as it features a bunch of guys who only played part of the season. If their unproven young guys like Tyler Naquin can produce, the Indians can match the Sox scoring onslaught. If not, then the bottom of the order will give Boston's pitchers some easy innings.
Starting Pitching
Red Sox
Rick Porcello: 22-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 189 Ks, 221 IP
David Price: 17-9, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 228 Ks, 230 IP
John Farrell's decision to start Buchholz in Game 3 is controversial, as Clay has been inconsistent to say the least, not only this season but his entire career. Thanks to Farrell getting Steven Wright hurt by using him as a pinch runner for some dumbass reason, there was an opening in the rotation, and Clay has earned his spot with the way he pitched down the stretch. In 5 September starts, he was excellent in 4 of them, going at least 6 innings while allowing two runs or less. In the other, he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings. I'm ok with Clay getting the ball in game 3, but he has to be on the shortest of leashes. When Buchholz is Suckholz, its obvious early on, and Farrell cannot give him the chance to work through it. The Red Sox will be carrying Drew Pomeranz on the ALDS roster, and he needs to be ready to come in early if Clay doesn't have it.
The Indians rotation was a major strength for most of the season, but a couple of horribly timed injuries have really downgraded their starting pitching. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were the number 2 and 3 starters for this team before going down in September, and neither are on the roster for this round. That leaves Cleveland with only 1 truly solid starter in Kluber, who won the Cy Young in 2014 and is in the running to win it again this season. Manager Terry Francona has chosen to use Kluber against David Price, setting up a power pitching matchup for Game 2. The Indians really need Kluber to be brilliant in this series, as I don't see their other pitchers keeping the Sox down. He will probably have to win twice in 5 games for Cleveland to advance.
Bullpens
Red Sox: Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, Drew Pomeranz, Robbie Ross Jr., Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara, Crag Kimbrel
The Sox have a decent group of relievers, with arms for a variety of situations. Pomeranz is a starter in the regular season, and will be the go to guy if someone gets in trouble early in the game. Robbie Ross Jr. will be the lefty-on-lefty specialist, as left handed hitters are batting just .188 against him this year. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are fireballers who can gas it up to 99 MPH, but neither are dominant and will probably be 6th-7th inning guys. Ziegler is a submariner who is particularly adept at getting ground balls; he will be a major situational option to bring in with men on base to get a double play. Uehara is the Sox timeless, 41 year old former closer, who will man 8th inning duties as the bridge to Kimbrel. Kimbrel has been one of the best closers in the game for years, but he did struggle in each of his final 3 outings during the regular season. He will need to exhibit better control in October.
Indians: Cody Allen, Cody Anderson, Mike Clevinger, Jeff Manship, Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller
Francona will probably be leaning fairly heavily on this group, especially in Game 3. I can see a scenario in which they tag team Tomlin and Clevinger in game 3, with each guy going a few innings. The Indians do boast some excellent arms at the back end of the pen, and will feel very comfortable with the lead in the late innings. Andrew Miller, acquired in a midseason trade with Yankees, is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. The lefty has a .139 batting average against, with 46 strikeouts in 29 innings. Those numbers are absurd, and he is especially devastating against a lefty-heavy lineup like the Sox. Shaw is another strikeout machine in a setup role, averaging more than 1 punchout per inning. Closer Cody Allen has also been outstanding this season, converting 32 of 35 save opportunities while putting up a 2.51 ERA.
I have to give the edge in the bullpen to the Indians, who have just been more consistent all season. They have 3 dominant arms for the late innings, so the Sox really have to do their damage in the early parts of the game.
Prediction: Sox in 4. Boston simply has too much offense for the thin pitching staff of the Indians. I don't think Cleveland can win in a shootout, and I don't think they will get outstanding pitching from the mediocre healthy guys they have left. With Carrasco and Salazar in the mix, this would be a different story, but the fact is they don't have those guys. Francona is an excellent manager, and these will be close, hard fought games... but Boston just has too much talent.
