Finally, we've made it to the meaningful part of the NBA season. The regular season is over and Round 1 has mercifully concluded, leaving us with the 8 best teams and no Los Angeles Clippers (thank God). We finally get to see what the top talents look like when everyone is actually trying all the time. Let's see what we've learned so far from Game 1s.
Celtics 123-111 Wizards
Hockey tough
Boy, when the Celtics shoot like that they are just about unbeatable. After spotting Washington a 16-0 lead to start the game, Boston buried the John Wall and co. under an avalanche of 3s, finishing 19-39 on the night as a team. Jae Crowder went 6-8 from deep and scored 24 points, easily the best playoff performance of his career. The Little Guy! scored 33, including 5-11 from 3. Al Horford was an absolute monster, putting up a 21-9-10 while serving as the fulcrum of Boston's non-Isaiah offense.
The Celtics offense is similar to the Rockets', a drive-and-kick machine powered by a star point guard that is designed to produce exclusively layups and 3s. The Celtics are at their best when they have 5 players on the floor who can all dribble, pass and shoot credibly; the ball whizzes around and eventually gets ahead of the rotating defense for an open look. This style produces open 3 point shots because the defense collapses on drives to the rim, preferring to give up open shots to players who are farther away; the 3's are a result of the work of attacking the basket. The Celtics get in trouble when they put the result ahead of the process, and shoot contested looks that aren't a result of offensive sets. When they focus on the process, the only thing opponents can do is hope they miss.
Markieff Morris's injury could be devastating for the Wizards. While it's not nearly as serious as it initially appeared and Morris will play Game 2, Washington needs their power forward healthy if they're going to win this series. Simply put, their bench is a disaster. In the less than 2 minutes the Wizards played without Bradley Bela or John Wall on the floor in Game 1, they were outscored by 6. With Morris in the lineup, the Celtics don't have any easy hiding spots for Isaiah on defense. Thomas simply can't guard Beal or Wall without getting destroyed, and he obviously can't guard either Morris or Gortat, who are both at least 15 inches taller than him. That leaves Otto Porter Jr., who is still a talented enough post player to punish Thomas. With Morris out, his spot is taken by Kelly Oubre, a spot up shooter who sucks at shooting (28,7% from 3). This series may come down to how the Wizards can take advantage of mismatches targeting Thomas; I'm looking for them to use his man as the screener in pick-and-rolls a lot more moving forwards.
Cavaliers 116-105 Raptors
Basically, more of the same. The Cavs were up by as many as 25 in the 4th quarter, and were dominant throughout this entire game. Lebron threw up a 35-10-4 on 57% shooting, Kyrie scored 24, and they held the Lowry/DeRozan combo to just 39 points. The Cavs were straight up clowning on Toronto in the 2nd half, with LeBron grabbing a beer from a vendor in the 3rd quarter. This comes on the heels of their series last year, when James said he doesn't see the Raptors as a threat before demolishing them by 26 in Game 6.
Straight up disrespectful
Everything the Raptors have done in the last 2 years was with an eye towards beating Cleveland, but if game 1 was any indication, they didn't make much progress. Demare Carroll was brought in to defend Lebron, but he looks absolutely cooked and not at all up to the task. PJ Tucker is strong enough for the task, but not fast enough to stay in front of him. Tucker's strategy in Game 1 was basically to hack the shit out of Lebron and hope he misses the free throws, which honestly might be Toronto's best bet. They don't have an answer for the Cavs small lineup, when Lebron shares the floor with 4 shooters. Jonas Valanciunas is particularly useless against this group, and the Raptors need to come up with different lineup to combat Cleveland's groups.
Toronto also needs to make adjustments on offense. The Cavs blitzed Lowry and especially DeRozan with traps, forcing them to give up the rock to the Raptors lesser players. Toronto doesn't have a Draymond Green type to dissect 4-3 situations, which is how the Warriors deal with this strategy. They need to draw up something more unorthodox to handle these traps. Valanciunas didn't do a good job scoring when Tristan Thompson was in the game, and if he can't win that matchup he's essentially unplayable in this series. Lowry had a poor shooting night, which he simply can't afford. Toronto has spent years looking for answers to this series, but they were disappointingly conventional in losing the same game we've seen these two teams play a dozen times now.
Rockets 126-99 Spurs
Holy cow. I don't think I've ever seen a more shocking basketball destruction in my young life. The Gregg Popovich Spurs got COMPLETELY ANNIHILATED, on their home floor, in the playoffs. What a strange world. San Antonio looked old, slow, and completely out of their league. The Rockets ran an endless string of pick and rolls with James Harden, and the Spurs couldn't stop it. In the first round, the Thunder were able to slow Harden down by switching everything and staying home on the Rockets shooters. Unfortunately, San Antonio doesn't have Steven Adams. Instead, they have 400 year old Pau Gasol playing in cement shoes, and he can't even stay in Harden's zip code. Lamarcus Aldridge and David Lee weren't much better. The Spurs can sic Kawhi Leonard on Harden in crunch time, but even Kawhi and his octopus arms can't handle that assignment for the whole game while also carrying a massive burden on offense. I've heard rumblings that Pop plans to go under screens in Game 2, daring Harden to shoot an open 3. This sounds like a desperation move to me, but it might be getting late early out here. But hey, Pop has forgotten more about basketball than I'll ever know. If anyone can find the answer, it's him. Things look really bleak though.
Warriors 115-Jazz 97
Yes, this game technically hasn't happened yet. But what are we really going to learn here? Golden State is amazing, and while the Jazz are a fun young team, they are totally screwed. They will try to slow this game down and keep the lid on the Warriors volcanic transition offense. They will try to make this an ugly, half-court game that plays to the strengths of the Utah defense. They might even be successful. Even if they are, it won't matter. The Warriors are better at Utah's style of play than the Jazz are. Barring an injury or some nut-punching drama, there's not much of interest here. At least it's not the Clipper though, right?
The first round of the NFL Draft is complete, and sadly we didn't have anything nearly as entertaining as last year Laremy Tunsil debacle.
Remember this?
Despite a noticeable lack of parent sabotage, social media hackings, and way-too-intense bong rips, there was still plenty to take away from this years first 32 picks, even without Bill Belichick involved. Let's get to it.
Cleveland plays it by the book
Cleveland followed conventional wisdom and picked DE Myles Garrett, the consensus best player available, with the #1 overall pick. It would have been typical for them to totally overthink this, and do something amazingly dumb like trade down to draft Deshone Kizer as a franchise QB. Part of me was hoping they would do something like that; the other part of me was expecting them to. Way to not totally Browns this one up, Cleveland.
What the fuck are the Bears doing?
Chicago came into this offseason with nothing but ??? at QB. They gave Mike Glennon a staggeringly stupid 3-year, $45 million deal to answer those questions. Tonight they found themselves in a draft with 2 QB choices and just one team ahead of them, so what did they do? Give away 3 picks to move up 1 spot, of course! Oh yeah, and then they passed on the guy who played in back-to-back national championship games in favor of the guy who just changed his name because it rhymed with "bitch".
Jacksonville Splurges on the Wrong RB
The Jaguars were in an interesting spot. Despite being bad enough to have a top-5 pick, Jacksonville's roster isn't utterly bereft of talent, unlike the other teams in this range. Their biggest needs are on the offensive line and at QB, where we have PLENTY of evidence that Blake Bortles is not the answer. Unfortunately, there aren't any good offensive linemen in this class, and no surefire QB pick. So the Jaguars used their #4 spot to grab LSU RB Leonard Fournette, trying to replicate the success that Dallas had with their Ezekiel Elliot pick at #4 last year. Unfortunately, the Jaguars don't have the best offensive line in over a decade, and I'm on record calling Fournette very overrated. Oh yeah, and Jacksonville also signed RB Chris Ivory to a 5 year, $32 million deal last season. Waste of a pick.
Funny every time
Run of Receivers
Picks 5-9 saw the 4 top pass catchers in this draft come off the board:
-Corey Davis went to the Titans, which I think is an excellent move. A dynamic wide receiver was their biggest need on offense, and Davis is going to be a MONSTER. Buckle up, Marcus Mariota: you're officially out of excuses.
-Mike Williams to the Chargers. This looks like a decent fit, as Rivers loves throwing to big bodied, physical, jump-ball receivers like Williams. I just think the Chargers had bigger needs elsewhere, and will regret passing on some of the defensive studs that were available (they should have taken safety Malik Hooker).
-You're damn right I'm calling Christian McCaffrey a receiver. He worked out a lot on the outside during the draft process, and I expect the Panthers will use him out of the slot a ton. This is a great fit of skill set and scheme, and Cam Newton will finally have a wideout who is more than fast.
-John Ross and his combine-record 4.2 second 40 time are going to Cincinnati to play opposite AJ Green. Think he might get the chance to outrun some single coverage? Only if he can stay healthy.
A cairn, or Ted Ginn's hands? You decide.
Two Big QB Trades
Things got wild around the 10 spot! The Chiefs gave Buffalo a 2017 3rd rounder and a 2018 1st rounder for the right to swap picks, moving up 17 places to take QB Patrick Maholmes. There were a ton of pre-draft rumors about KC's interest in Maholmes, and the move signals they are finally ready to begin the process of moving on from Alex Smith. Still, Maholmes won't be ready to play right away, and I'm not sure the Chiefs needed to get all the way up to 10 to get their man, especially with Watson still on the board. They were obviously afraid that Cleveland/Houston/Denver (maybe?) were all in the market for a signla caller, but I don't think any of those teams were very interested in Maholmes. Regardless, a 1st and a 3rd is a HUGE price to pay for a project QB.
Everyone knew the Texans were looking for a QB, and once the Chiefs made their move it really put the pressure on the Houston brain trust. After years of outstanding defense being completely wasted by awful passers, the Texans will now turn things over to Clemson star Deshaun Watson. Watson turned the ball over way too much in college, and I have doubts that he will be accurate enough to succeed in the NFL, but I also think he's the best QB prospect in this draft. The Texans gave up their first round pick next year in the deal, but this was a no-brainer move. Watson throwing to DeAndre Hopkins will be exciting at the very least, and he came at a cheaper price than Maholmes. Good move for the Texans.
Sad Brocketlauncher
A Bunch of Logical Picks on Defense
Sometimes, the characteristics of a pick determine the identity of a franchise. Other times, the identity of a franchise determines the characteristics of a pick. We got a bunch of the second kind in the middle of the first round:
-Arizona took linebacker Haasan Reddick, a great athlete who doesn't fit neatly into one position. The Cardinals have a whole defense full of these guys, and Reddick will fit right in playing both linebacker and safety in their hybrid scheme.
-The Eagles took DE Derek Barnett, a guy with an outstanding motor and great college production despite lacking elite natural athleticism. Does that sound like Philly?
-The Colts took S Malik Hooker, one of my favorite players in this entire draft. Still, it is just incredibly Colts to look at a roster that hasn't been able to defend the run for years, and then go draft a safety whose negatives section is all about how he can't tackle. But hey, at least they didn't take another 5'9" slot receiver. Progress!
-Baltimore took CB Marlon Humphrey. His father was a star football player, he went to Alabama, his measurables are exactly what you look for in a corner, and all he needs is good coaching to teach him proper technique? Sounds like a classic Ozzie Newsome pick! I'm sure he will develop, in classic Baltimore fashion, into a solid contributor and horrible person.
-The Redskins take DE Jonathan Allen, a tremendously talented pass rusher who tore the labrum in both of his shoulders during college, and now has freaking ARTHRITIS in both of them. Dan Snyder has never been afraid to make high-risk, high-reward moves, and this is certainly another one.
We believe ALL murderer deserve a second chance
The Bucs are Loading up for Jameis
Credit where credit is due: Tampa Bay realized that J-Boo needs more weapons than Mike Evans in order to thrive, so they went out and got some. First they signed free agent deep threat/aspiring gang member Desean "Jaccpot" Jackson to play across from Evans. Now they have drafted Alabama TE OJ Howard, who might be the best offensive player in this entire class. At 6'6 250 lbs, he runs a 4.51 40 yard dash. He's bigger than most linebackers, as fast as a running back, has amazing hands, and can block too. Basically, he's Black Gronk. The only knock on him is that some scouts don't think he is "competitive enough", which sounds like the kind of thing you say because you can't just leave a pool of cum on your evaluation sheet. This guy should have been a top 10 pick.
The Giants Miss an Opportunity
Quick, what do the Giants need most? If you answered anything but a running game, you haven't watched a single Giants game in the last two seasons. They had two excellent running backs to choose from in Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara, and instead selected... Evan Engram, a receiving tight end who struggles to block in the run game. Maybe the Giants think they can get one of the running backs tomorrow, or maybe they have their eye on a different back in a later round. Still, there are a ton of tight ends in this draft, and Big Blue didn't do anything to address their weaknesses with this pick.
The Browns Get Frisky Late
With 2 first picks and 11 overall, Cleveland was always going to be a major player in this draft, but they made even bigger splashes than people were expecting on day 1. After picking #1 and dealing the 12th overall pick to Houston, Cleveland took positionless superathlete Jabril Peppers with the 25th pick. Then they shipped a 4th rounder to the Packers to move up from 33 to 29 and grab TE David Njoku. Both players are incredibly athletic, potential game changers, but both are somewhat raw. Taking the athletic talent and figuring it out later reflects the sabermetrics, Moneyball style approach that Paul DePodesta was hired for, but it's definitely risky. Turned gifted yet unrefined athletes into productive NFL players requires quality coaching and sound organizational structure, neither of which have been associated with Cleveland for the last 3 decades or so.
The Patriots Draft Brandin Cooks with the 32nd pick
Most teams use a first round pick on a receiver hoping they turn into young Pro Bowler. Belichick does it knowing Cooks already is one.
The Dark Lord reigns supreme
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Before we get to the actual games this week, I have to address the controversy in Baltimore over the weekend. On Friday, Orioles superstud Manny Machado took out Dustin Pedroia with a spikes up slide into Petey's leg.
Missed the base there dickhead
Dustin was injured on the play, and hasn't returned to the field since. He is day-to-day pending further evaluation in Boston. Pedroia said after the game that he didn't have a problem with what Machado did, and also, "I've turned the best double play in the Major Leagues for 11 years. I don't need the fuckin rule" to protect middle infielders. Petey is the man.
Two days later, Matt Barnes threw a 97 MPH fastball at Machado's earhole. Manny was obviously pissed, and TV cameras caught Pedroia apologizing to Machado from the Red Sox dugout, saying he didn't ask for the pitch. Afterwards, Barnes got suspended 4 games for his clear attempt to assassinate one of the best players in MLB. Honestly, I thought that Machado's slide was dirty and merited a response. It was late in a game the Orioles were already winning, and clearly spikes up into Petey's leg. I have no problem with drilling him, but you can't wait two days and then try to kill the guy with a freaking missile at his domepiece. Put one in his ribs in his next at-bat after the slide and move on like responsible adults. Now, on to the....
Results
Rays 3-4 Red Sox Red Sox 0-2 Orioles
Red Sox 8-7 Blue Jays Red Sox 2-4 Orioles
Red Sox 0-3 Blue Jays Red Sox 6-2 Orioles
Red Sox 4-1 Blue Jays
Week: 4-3
Season: 11-8, 2 GB in the East
The Sox started off the week strong, winning the finale against the Rays and taking 2 of 3 in Canada. The Blue Jays finished that series with a record of 3-12, but they aren't going to be terrible like this all season. They have too much talent to not get going at some point, so its important to beat them up now while they're struggling. The series finale on Thursday was particularly exciting, as Chris Sale dominated yet again with 8.0 innings, 0 runs and 13 Ks. The Sox scored the first run of the game in the top of the 9th, only to see Kimbrel give up a homer to the first batter he faced in the bottom half. Luckily, Mookie Betts saved the day in the 10th with a 3 run double, and the Sox avoided wasting another Sale gem. Sale now has a 0.91 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 29 innings. Little tidbit for you: 19 of those Ks have been on his slider, making it an absolutely elite finishing pitch. In general, the Sox got solid starting pitching out of the entire rotation this week... except for Steven Wright, who couldn't get out of the 4th inning without giving up multiple homers, again. He looks like the obvious choice to ax when/if David Price returns.
Still don't see the Pedro comp though
On the flip side, Boston had a major offensive slump towards the end of the week. They were shut out in the 2nd game in Toronto, and didn't score until the 9th of the finale. Then they got shut out and only managed 2 runs in the losses against Baltimore. These random slumps are going to happen to even the best offenses, so it was nice to see them break out with 3 HR against Kevin Gausman on Sunday. Pablo Sandoval currently leads the team in bombs with 3, so it would be nice to see some of our actually good players changing that in the near future.
Hero of the Week
Mookie Betts will be a regular feature in this space. He led the team with 8 RBI this week, hit two jacks, and added a game winning hit for good measure. He did strike out 3 times, bringing his season total to... 3. He's the best player in one of the best lineups in baseball.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Benintendi
The youngest Killer B hit .429 this week, raising his numbers on the season to .347/.415/.829. He's also a 22 year old rookie.
Goat of the Week
Gotta be Matt Barnes. In addition to his bullshit with Machado, Barnes gave up 4 runs in 2.2 innings of terrible relief pitching this week. At least he won't be fucking up any of the next 4 games while he sits in the corner of shame.
Dishonorable Mention: Steven Wright
At this point, it seems like Wright can't even take a shit without it going long on him.
Looking Ahead
Red Sox host the Yankees for 3 and then the World Series Champion Chicago Cubs will be in town over the weekend. Huuuuge week for the boys, with the first look at the young New York team and then a chance to take on the best. 3-3 is probably a fair expectation.
4-2 record for the boys this week. Solid showings against teams they should beat, with the offense performing much better overall. This makes sense, as most of the starting lineup was actually playing instead of vomiting all over the clubhouse.
The best part of this week was the Red Sox demonstrating resilience and an ability to win in a variety of ways. In the makeup game against the Pirates on Wednesday, Chad Kuhl absolutely shut down the Sox for 7 innings, giving Pittsburgh a 3-1 lead through 7. Boston got into the bullpen and rallied back for 3 runs in the 8th, with HanRam and Xander Bogaerts providing the key hits. On Saturday, Chris Sale was lights out once again, but the bats were quiet despite facing the Rays bullpen for the entire game after Odorizzi pulled a muscle in the 2nd inning. Baseball is a weird game, and that will happen sometimes, but it was great to see the bottom of the lineup scratch out the winning run in the 7th. On Sunday, the Sox got multi-hit days from 6 different players, scoring consistently throughout the game to win a wild, back-and-forth affair. This week they won a blowout, a comeback, a pitchers duel, and a see-saw game. That's the kind of flexibility that can do serious damage in the playoffs.
Hero of the Week: Mitch Moreland
Wonderful tee shot, Mr. Moreland!
When the Sox signed Moreland in the offseason, I expected outstanding defense but below average offensive production compared to other first basemen. He's made a big dent in proving me wrong this week, going 9-21 (is hitting .428 good?) with 4 doubles and a homer. If he can return to his 2015 levels of production, when he hit .278 with 23 HR, that will go a long way towards making the Red Sox lineup the best in the AL.
Honorable Mention: Chris Sale
Sale turned in another brilliant start this week, striking out 12 Rays over 7 innings of 1 run ball. His starts are quickly becoming appointment viewing, and he's singlehandedly driving up the price of K sign stock in Boston. Take notes, David Price: this is what a high profile acquisition Ace is supposed look like.
Goat of the Week: Steven Wright
Has that ball landed yet?
Steven Wright made one start this week. He got four Orioles hitters out, and gave up four home runs. I am on the record as saying that knuckleballers results are mostly luck; they throw the knuckleball at the plate and hope for the best. Sometimes, they string a bunch of good luck together and win the Cy Young (RA Dickey) or make the All-Star team (2016 Wright). Sometimes you give up 8 runs in an inning. I fear that we're due for a lot more of this Steven Wright than the one we saw last season.
Honorable Mention: Rick Porcello
Rick made a damn good push for this dubious honor, as he also gave up 4 homers and 8 runs to the Rays, but he at least made it into the 5th inning. For those of you keeping score at home, Boston pitchers allowed 12 home runs in 6 games this week. Let's work on that shall we?
Looking Ahead
Patriots Day game at 11:30 AM on Monday, then hitting the road for a 6 game road trip: 3 in Toronto then 3 in Baltimore. The Blue Jays are off to the worst start in franchise history and the Orioles are the Orioles. Let's shoot for 6-1, 4-3 at the worst.
Pirates 0-3 Red Sox (11 innings) Red Sox 7-5 Tigers
Red Sox 5-6 Tigers Red Sox 1-2 Tigers
The Red Sox started the season with a rough week, going 3-3 against the Pirates and Tigers. Obviously, those results aren't exactly what you're looking for to start the season, but it's actually not bad all things considered.
With David Price and Drew Pomeranz starting the year on the Disabled List and a brutal April schedule, a slow start was always a real possibility, but things really got out of hand this week. First, an outbreak of flu took out Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt, Joe Kelly, and Robbie Ross Jr. Then, Xander Bogaerts and Matt Barnes went on the bereavement list in order to travel to Aruba for a funeral. As if missing almost the entire starting lineup and half the bullpen wasn't enough, Jackie Baseball went down on Saturday with a very scary looking, non-contact injury while rounding first base. He's been diagnosed with a sprained knee ligament and placed on the 10-day DL. Hopefully he's not out too long, but with that kind of injury I don't expect to see him back on the field for a couple of weeks at least. The Red Sox will miss his production in the lineup and his defense in centerfield, but I might miss his name most of all; "The Killer Bs" doesn't work nearly as well with Chris Young playing in the outfield.
Even with all the built in excuses, it still hurts to lose some of those games in Detroit. They wasted a huge 5 run, 8th inning comeback in the first game of the series, and then threw away a phenomenal Chris Sale effort in the series finale. John Farrell left Sale in the game too long, allowing him to give up 2 runs in the 8th before going to the bullpen, but I'm actually going to give him a pass this time. His options in the bullpen were pretty limited between illness and injury, and there's something to be said for giving your new ace the opportunity to get out of trouble. However, Farrell has a history of poor in-game management, and mistakes like this are going to put him on veeeery thin ice if the team struggles.
Hero of the Week
Chris Sale has been every bit the ace the Sox paid for. In two starts this week, he threw 17.2 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 8 hits with 17 strikeouts. He didn't get a win because the Red Sox didn't hit a lick in either game, but that's not on Sale. I can't wait to watch this guy dominate hitters for the rest of the season.
Honorable Mention: Sandy Leon
The Sox catcher is red hot to start the season, going 7-16 with both a bunt single and a walk-off 3 run bomb. He looks like he's on a mission to prove last season wasn't a fluke, which would make an already stacked lineup truly ridiculous.
Goat of the Week
Dr. Laurence Ronan is the Medical Director and Head Team Internist for the Boston Red Sox. Judging by the above picture, which I pulled off of his Vitals doctor profile, he's also a legendary boozehound. I know the flu is a tricky little bastard, but you just can't let the entire lineup get hit with it at once. We've known about infectious diseases for a couple centuries now, come on Larry. Be better.
Looking Ahead
The Sox will be in Boston all week. They have 3 with the Orioles, the makeup game for the rainout with the Pirates, and then 4 with Tampa Bay. Baltimore should be a good test, but these are all very winnable games. An early 8 game homestand against mediocre competition is a great chance to get some Ws in an otherwise very difficult month. Anything worse than 5-3 will be a disappointment.
That's all for this week. Remember to follow us on twitter @TheOutsidersPod, like the Facebook page, and keep an eye out for new podcasts, articles, and who knows maybe even an actual website!
Some people like to bet on things they have a solid shot of producing steady, moderate returns. They call this type of betting "investing in solid, well run companies". Other people are like me, and can think of nothing better to do with our money than risk it on utterly inane elements of our nation's Secular Holiday. Plus, if you don't happen to be blessed enough to root for the New England Patriots (or the Falcons, I guess?), these are a great way to generate some emotional investment in the proceedings.
National Anthem
Over 2:15 -120
Under 2:15 -120
This is probably my favorite bet every year. There's no sweeter music than the Star Spangled Banner, and there's no better way to get to full mast than by nailing the first bet of the night. Last year this bet was insane, when that drama queen Lady Gaga was all set to come in for an easy under victory before she decided to tack on an absurd ending. She hit the Over on her second round of "Home of the Brave":
Naturally, I hammered the under, so I was pretty ripshit. UNTIL the halftime announcement from Bovada that the official rules stated that the clock stopped at the end of the last note of the first "Home of the Brave", flipping the result. It was one hell of an emotional roller coaster, people.
This year's anthem will be performed by country star Luke Bryan, and the 2:15 length is the longest that number has been in the history of this prop. Bryan is a real pop country crooner, he loves the spotlight, and he's obviously never been told that the National Anthem is written as a brisk march. He got it done in a reasonable 2:04 at the 2012 MLB All-Star Game, but went an insane 2:29 at the opening of the Vikings new stadium in September. He was under 2 minutes at a concert in Virginia in June, but I don't think that performance at a random concert is indicative of what we'll see from him on Sunday. The guy is a shoe-in to let the cheering build with a dramatic pause before the final line, and he'll probably pull out the old "point the microphone at the crowd" move at the same time. He's going to drink in the attention in his big moment, and I'm taking the over.
Coin Toss
Heads -105
Tails -105
Some people look at the odds of winning this bet and the potential payoffs and say that it's a completely foolish thing to bet on. Others of us see it as a great barometer for how God is feeling about us.
What could go wrong?
Tails has a 26-24 edge all time in this matchup, and while that might indicate a regression towards heads, I think the prevailing wisdom from the playground applies here: Tails never fails, Heads is for Trump voters.
I'm not going to bet on anything to do with the actual football in this game because I simply can't afford to get distracted from the task at hand. So let's skip ahead to...
Halftime
What will Lady Gaga's first song be?
Born This Way +225 Bad Romance +250 Edge of Glory +600 Poker Face +1000 Just Dance +1000 Any Other Song +110
With everything going on in the world of politics and Lady Gaga's history of activism, Born This Way seems like the obvious, runaway favorite. It's a loud proclamation of support for diversity that was adopted as a theme song for the LGBTQ movement. Come on. These odds indicate that "any other song" is the favorite, which makes no sense to me at all. Born This Way will probably be the first song that Gaga plays in full. It's an obvious call.
HOWEVER:
I remember the controversy that surrounded this bet last year. Coldplay ran onto the field to the opening line of Yellow, their first and most iconic hit, but then transitioned into the more upbeat Viva La Vida. I can absolutely see the same thing happening again: Gaga rises up through the stage in a cloud of smoke, as a nod to one of her earliest hits announces her presence: the iconic, instantly recognizable "muh muh muh muh" from Poker Face. At +1000 the payoff is just too good to resist.
Will the word "Lacrosse" be said on the live broadcast? Yes -250 No +170
This means during the actual game, not the pre-game, post-game, or halftime shows. I'm also very confident Joe Buck is aware of this prop bet. Bill Belichick famously LOVES lacrosse, and Chris Hogan starred in lacrosse (not football) in college. If Hogan scores, this is a definite yes, but I think Buck finds a way to slip in in regardless.
How many times will "Matty Ice" be said during the live broadcast?
Over 2 -110
Under 2 -130
There is absolutely no chance Troy Aikman calls him that. Buck probably does it once going into a commercial break, but I can't see it happening 3 times. Hammer the under.
What color will the Gatorade poured on the winning coach be?
Clear +300 Yellow +300 Lime/Green +300 Orange +300 Red +600 Blue +750 Purple +1200
Bill Belichick didn't receive a shower, and I'm fairly certain he has banned the tradition for anything but the Super Bowl. In fact, he avoided the shower entirely in each of the Pats first 2 Super Bowl wins, although that probably had something to do with the last second field goal nature of those games. The Pats hit him with blue after their 2014 victory, but I bet BB got pissed that it made him sticky. If New England wins, clear is the bet here.
We don't have much to go on with the Falcons either. They doused Dan Quinn with yellow after their NFC Championship victory, and it stands to reason that they would have the same hydration plan in place for the Super Bowl.
I nailed this bet with Orange last season, but that was a layup. This year is much, much harder; there's pretty good value with Blue and Red, but it usually doesn't correspond with team colors. The Pats are favored here, so either Blue or Clear is the logical choice. I'll take the value with Blue over rooting for a boring old ice bucket challenge.
This is it, folks. After a long season filled with, let's be honest, a shitload of incredibly mediocre matchups, we now have just 7 football games left. The good news? They're all going to be awesome. We've separated the wheat from the chaff, now its time to bake some fucking bread. Let's get to it.
Seahawks at Falcons (-4.5)
After the generally crap Wild Card round last weekend, this weekend starts off with one helluva matchup. These two teams played each other in Seattle back in Week 6, with the Seahawks winning 26-24 when the refs missed a blatant pass interference on Julio Jones that killed the Falcons game winning drive. Seriously, what Richard Sherman does here is the DEFINITION of pass interference:
The most exciting part of this game is the matchup between the Seahawks defense, which is in the midst of a historically good 4 year run, and the Falcons offense, which scored 540 points this year, tied for 7th-most all time. I think the Falcons will win that matchup.
Last week,I broke down how the Earl Thomas injury hurts the Seahawks defense, but we didn't see many of those effects in their 26-6 throttling of the Lions. Detroit is absolutely awful at running the ball, so the Seahawks were able to concentrate on stopping the pass. Instead of having their strong safety play closer to the line of scrimmage (as they usually do in their Cover 3 defense), Pete Carroll used a lot of Cover 2, with two safeties covering deep downfield. This alignment enabled Seattle to completely contain the Lions' offense.
Unfortunately, that plan probably won't work against Atlanta. While Julio Jones and Matt Ryan get most of the media attention, the Falcons offense actually starts with how well they use their running backs, both as runners and receivers. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 2,482 yards from scrimmage and 24 TDs this season, which is a ludicrous level of production. If you don't stop those guys, the Falcons will light your team on fire and watch it burn.
One of the best parts of the Seahawks cover 3 scheme is that it works very well against the run, because there are so many defenders in the box near the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, with Thomas sidelined, the Seahawks will have Steven Tarrell covering the entire deep middle of the field by himself if they play Cover 3. This is an extremely dangerous plan, because...
So Pete Carroll finds himself with a tough choice: focus on the running backs and risk getting torched over the middle, or devote resources to covering the pass and get killed by the running backs? The Seahawks might try to reprogram the Kobayashi Maru by having Richard Sherman shadow Jones, but that would involve completely redesigning their entire defense in just a single week.
I don't think the Seahawks will be able to stop the Falcons offense, particularly in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. So, in order for Seattle to win, they are going to need to outscore Matt Ryan and Co. Russell Wilson is really good, and the Falcons defense is not, so they do have a chance. However, the Seahawks are dealing with a handful of injuries at running back and wide receiver, and they still don't have a single above average offensive lineman. That last one is going to be the biggest issue, because the Falcons have defensive end Vic Beasley, who is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. This game will be close, because it usually is when Seattle is involved, but I don't see this injury depleted Seahawks team sticking with the Falcons in Atlanta.
Bonus Thing to Watch: the music in the stadium. (H/T Kellen Sanger)
Russell Wilson is married to Ciara. Ciara has a son from a previous relationship with Atlanta-based rapper Future. Russell Wilson is reportedly very sensitive about this, and has banned any Future songs from being played in the Seahawks facilities. So, of course, the Georgia Dome DJ plans to play nothing but Future during the game.Frankly, the Falcons should extend that to the pre-game warmups, in the visitors locker room, in Seahawks' hotel, etc...
I don't think this will actually effect the game, but its worth noting nonetheless because it serves as a nice reminder that:
The Pick: FALCONS (-4.5) over Seahawks
Texans at Patriots (-16)
Remember how I said all the remaining football games were going to be awesome? I may have fibbed a little bit. I mean, this game will probably be awesome for me because I abandoned the way of the Jedi to study under The Hooded One, but still. I may have told a little white lie.
Star Wars ends very differently if someone tells Darth Vader to just "Do Your Job"
This is another rematch: in week 3, the Patriots demolished Houston 27-0 in Foxborough, despite starting injured 3rd string rookie QB Jacoby Brissett. That's a completely absurd sentence when you consider it in the context of a playoff preview. Obviously, having Tom Brady back will only widen the chasm between these two sides. It's really hard to envision the Texans winning this game, but let's talk about my nightmare scenario anyway.
Over the years, we've seen a couple of teams unlock the code to beating New England. Its all about the defense, where you need to stuff the run, consistently pressure Brady without blitzing, and play lockdown coverage on the Pats top targets. If you can do that, your offense doesn't have to score 50; you can simply control the ball a bit, put together a couple drives, and score 20 points in an ugly 20-17 type game. That's what Denver did, that's what the Giants did twice (fuck me), and it's the Texans only hope. But can Houston put together a game that looks like that?
I would say yes, they have they pieces to make that kind of game happen. They gave up the fewest total yards of any team in the NFL this season. Jadeveon Clowney has finally emerged as the Apex Predator we thought he would be when he was drafted #1 overall, and he is joined on the defensive line by massive human/stud defender Whitney Mercilus. Ex-Patriot Vince Wilfork and linebackers Brian Cushing and Benardrick McKinney are all above average run defenders. Cornerbacks Jonathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson and A.J. Bouye are very capable of sticking with the Pats receivers. QB Brock Osweiler looked a lot better last week, leading a surprisingly effective Texans offense to 27 points against the Raiders. There is a world in which the Texans make this a very competitive game.
I still don't want to bet on him either
Do I think that world is the world I live in? Of course not. You couldn't get me to bet against the Pats this week even if you hooked my nipples up to car batteries. Brock Osweiler may have taken a step last week, but that step was from "literally cannot hope to win with this chump" to "maybe not the worst QB in the entire NFL". The Texans defense is good, but Tom Brady is the greatest QB to ever walk on Planet Earth. The Patriots offensive line has been excellent all season, especially previously-mocked RT Marcus Cannon, who is a 2nd team All-Pro. Bill O'Brien learned everything he knows while studying under Belichick, and he is maybe the 5th best coordinator the Pats have had. None of them have succeeded. But most of all, New England has history on its side. Back in 2012, the upstart Texans brought their 11-1 record into a week 14 game against the Patriots on Monday Night Football. They lost 42-14, dropped 2 of their final 3 games, and lost to New England 41-28 in the playoffs. Belichick killed the Texans that night and buried them in a shallow grave. Tom Brady took the Texans' mother out for a nice seafood dinner and then never called her again. Robert Kraft took a shit on Bob McNair's hardwood desk. This game is going to be a blowout.
The Pick: PATRIOTS (-16) over Texans
Steelers at Chiefs (-1.5)
Fuck me sideways, this game is hard to pick. I'm going to make the case for both sides, and see which is more persuasive.
Steelers Case:
1. These teams played already, in Week 4, at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers won 43-14.
It was 36-0 after the 3rd quarter. You need some really persuasive evidence that this game will be different if you want to pick the Chiefs.
2. The first thing to look at in any playoff game is the quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger vs Alex Smith is like Bill Clinton vs Aging; its no contest.
(Seriously, have you seen that guy? He's a zombie)
3. The Chiefs defense is not at full strength for this game. Justin Houston will likely play because he is a warrior, but he was limited all week in practice so he won't be in full Angry Wildebeast Mode as a pass rusher. Perhaps even more devastating is the loss of linebacker Derrick Johnson, the Chiefs' best run defender. Kansas City needs all the help they can get, because they ranked 26th against the run this season, giving up an average of 121 yards per game on the ground.
4, Le'Veon Bell is one of the best players in the entire NFL, and he's just out here killing teams. He has had at least 100 yards from scrimmage in 12 of 13 games he's played in. If anyone can feast on a weak rushing defense, it's this guy. His patience before picking a running lane is literally unprecedented in the NFL, and he could completely dominate this game.
5. If the Chiefs want to stop Bell, they may have to bring strong safety Eric Berry down into the box, especially on 1st and 2nd down. If that happens, Big Ben will jump on the chance to go deep to Antonio Brown or one of the cavalcade of other random young receivers in Pittsburgh's arsenal.
6. Playoff Andy Reid is a fucking idiot.
My mustache saves the sauce!
Chiefs Case:
1. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be going absolutely apeshit for this game. The Chiefs haven't had a home playoff game since 2010. They haven't won one since 1993. Arrowhead is a notoriously difficult place to play under normal circumstances, so we'll see how well Big Ben does operating with a jet engine roaring in his earholes.
2. The past few years, Kansas City has been held back by their inability to make big plays on offense. This year, they have discovered a double solution to that problem: Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Kelce has developed into an absolute animal, perhaps one of the most underrated players in the NFL. He can block, run, catch, break tackles, and beat coverage. He's basically Gronk with less physical dominance and fewer injuries. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill beat the shit out of his pregnant girlfriend while at Oklahoma State.
On Sunday you'll probably hear a lot more about what a game-breaker he is as a kick returner, receiver, and occasional running back.
3. The Chiefs still have some great playmakers on defense too. DT Dontari Poe, CB Marcus Peters and SS Eric Berry are three of the best players at their positions in the entire league.
Hill is a piece of shit, but Eric Berry beat cancer
Berry is one of the most versatile defenders in the league, capable of making a difference both in the box and in the secondary. Peters can (and likely will) shadow Brown all game long. The Chiefs have been an opportunistic defense all season, thriving on creating turnovers and causing havoc in key situations. Speaking of which...
4. Ben Roethlisberger has shown a tendency to throw a couple of balls up for grabs every game. The Chiefs playmakers will definitely have some chances to impact this game.
5. Big Ben is a much different QB on the road:
Home: 70.8% completion, 8.5 YPA, 20 TD, 5 INT
Away: 59.4% completion, 6.7 YPA, 9 TD, 8 INT
That's a real difference! Once again, Roethlisberger will be playing with a jet engine roaring in his earholes.
6. The Chiefs have made a real habit out of pulling games out of their assholes all season long.
7. Kansas City had a bye week last week. Andy Reid is 14-3 in his career coming off a bye week, including 3-0 in the playoffs. I have a theory about what's causing this phenomenon: Andy Reid's brain is as fat as he is. It can take us Big Boys awhile to get started, but once we get moving there's no stopping us. Andy Reid's brain just needs an extra week to get revved up, but if you give him that he suddenly remembers he has 3 timeouts per half and comprehends the concept of a 2 minute drill.
I'll be coaching the Chiefs this weekend
The Pick: CHIEFS (-1.5) over Steelers
Packers at Cowboys (-4.5)
Once again, the NFL correctly scheduled the best game of the weekend for last. I believe the winner of this game will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LI in Houston. This is yet another rematch, with Dallas beating Green Bay in Labeau Field, 30-16, back in Week 6. However, I'm not sure that game will be an appropriate guide for this one; the Packers fumbled five times in that contest, losing three of them. Dallas took an early lead, benefited from a handful of turnovers, and was able to use it's running game to bleed the game out. While that is Jerry Jones's best-case scenario, I don't think it will happen twice in the same season.
Really, there is only one reason to pick the Packers in this game:
The Packers obliterated the Giants, the best defense in the playoffs, for 38 points last week. They are going to score when they get the chance. The question is, can the Cowboys offense limit their opportunities?
Dallas' offense is built from the ground up. They have placed an emphasis on investing in the offensive line in recent years, and with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott, the result has been the most dominant rushing attack in the NFL. The ground game has allowed rookie QB Dak Prescott to thrive, working with play action to produce an endless stream of open targets all season long. He has thrown just 17 passes while the Cowboys have been behind this season, indicating that the vast majority of his passes have come in favorable situations for the offense. For all the praise that Prescott has received, it's arguable that he has had the easiest rookie season of all time.
While the Packers have struggled on defense at times this season, most of their issues have been in the secondary. They still have Mike Daniels, one of the best run defenders in the NFL. They still have Clay Matthews, who is at his best as a pass rusher, but has learned to play inside in recent years. If they are struggling to contain Elliott, perhaps they will move him back to middle linebacker.
This is another incredibly close game. Both teams have multiple avenues to victory, a plan B to go to if plan A fails. In such a tight spot, I tend to take the points. Especially when taking the points also means taking the most talented, Super Bowl winning QB I've ever seen, playing about as well as humanly possible, over taking the squad that's relying on a couple rookies with incredible pressure on their shoulders.
The Pick: Packers (+4.5) over COWBOYS
Last Week: 3-1
Season: Who gives a fuck? Its all about the hot streak baby!
The Playoffs are finally here. Let's get right to it. Home team in CAPS
TEXANS (-4) over Raiders
This has the potential to be the worst (best) playoff game ever, featuring the Brocket Launcher vs. Connor Cook, a rookie making his first NFL start in the playoffs. I can't wait. Literally I am so excited for this game I can't even tell you. Both these QBs are less qualified for this than Trump is to be President. You should definitely watch this game. It might get an Emmy nomination for Best Comedy. Just don't gamble on it, because you can't pretend you have any idea what's going to happen. In fact, anyone trying to place a bet on this game should be immediately put into rehab, because they simply can't be trusted with their own wallet.
That being said, I'm all over the Texans. They have been playing this type of crappy game all year; this is a Thursday Night Football slopfest against the Jaguars. They get 80% of their wins in this exact game every year. The Raiders have played all season as a high flying, exciting passing team. They have no idea how to win with Connor Cook at QB. They know they aren't going anywhere even if they win this game. The Texans have no idea how bad they are. They'll win.
Oh and by the way, it doesn't matter that the Raiders have Cooper and Crabtree on the outside. Remember when the Cardinals had to start Ryan Lindley in the playoffs in 2014? Their receivers didn't matter either. I remember Connor Cook playing against Alabama last year. Connor Cook is fucking awful. Oh and Raiders LT Donald Penn is out with an injury. Which means....
Clowney gonna FEAST!
The only thing that scares me about this pick is Khalil Mack. He could absolutely ruin my day. Oh also, games like this often come down to special teams play, as field position and a single big play could decide this one. Football Outsiders has Oakland's Special Teams ranked 11th in DVOA.... Houston is 32nd (dead fucking last). As I said, don't bet this game. Gulp.
SEAHAWKS (-8) over Lions
This game is going to be a slaughter. The Lions are fucking terrible. They just are. They lost to the Bears this season. Look it up. Its true. They are completely reliant on the passing game, and they have a quarterback who looks like this...
...and also has torn ligaments in his throwing hand and wears a splint that makes it impossible to bend his middle finger. I'm not so confident in offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's plan of attack.
Now, to be clear, I don't like the Seahawks playoff prospects much either. They haven't figured out how to use Jimmy Graham consistently, they are injured and short on playmakers at RB and WR, and they still can't block anyone unless you only rush two linemen (looking at you, Matt Patricia). They have overcome those problems in the past with no trouble because Russell Wilson is a Virgin Wizard, but this year is different because the Earl Thomas injury is completely devastating to their defense in ways that are pretty much irreparable.
Peter Carroll uses Cover 3 as his base defense, where cornerbacks Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead drop deep and cover the sidelines while Thomas patrols the entire deep middle of the field. This frees up strong safety Kam Chancellor to play closer to the line of scrimmage, where he violently obliterates every receiver and running back he can find. Chancellor playing with the destructive force of an angry rhinoceros allows the linebackers to blitz or play the pass in all kinds of creative ways, as with 8 men in the box the defense has a numbers advantage.
But with backup safety Steven Terrell in the game, there is a chain reaction along the defense. No other safety can cover the amount of territory Thomas does, so every other defender has to do more. Sherman and Shead have to patrol more ground, making their coverage looser and allowing receivers more space to get open. Chancellor has to play deeper, and the linebackers have to do more to cover his absence underneath. The pass rush doesn't get as much help from the linebackers, so opposing QBs have more time to throw against the weaker coverage. Thomas's injury makes Seattle worse at every level of the defense, and as a result they've dropped to 30th in defensive DVOA in the 4 games since Thomas went down.
All that being said though, the Seahawks are playing at home, where they went 7-1 this season. The Lions finished the season a putrid 27th in offense DVOA and are banking on Holden Taint to regularly beat Richard Sherman to throws from a four fingered guy named Matt. Oh yeah, and the Lions play here:
The Slums of Mumbai
STEELERS (-10) over Dolphins
There has been a lot of buzz about the Dolphins this week, with a lot of people in the media trying to talk themselves into taking Miami. Their case is basically:
1. These two teams played in Week 6, a game that Miami won 30-15.
2. Matt Moore isn't your typical backup QB, and has actually been pretty good. His numbers in 3 games as a starter: 63.4% completion rate, 676 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INT, 2-1 record. On a per game basis, he's really not significantly worse than Ryan Tannehill.
3. Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker are legit weapons who can make plays against a soft Pittsburgh defense. Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards when these two teams played in week 6, and is a legitimate top 10 RB in the NFL. They have playmakers who can control the ball and put up points.
I have to admit, it's a pretty good case, especially considering the line is so high. But allow me to refute it point by point:
1. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee early in that game, dramatically limiting his effectiveness. The Steelers played a clunker on the road, which happens to them a couple times every year. They will be playing at home, where Big Ben is much better, and he will be healthy. They aren't going to fuck up again in the playoffs.
2. While it's true that Moore hasn't been Blake Bortles/Osweiler level bad, he still hasn't been good. Saying he's not a full step down from Tannehill isn't a good endorsement for Miami's chances in this game if you recognize that Ryan Tannehill sucks.
3. Miami has some decent players and will score some points in this game. But the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell, two of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. Bell in particular has been incredible this year, averaging over 100 yards per game (running and receiving) while finishing as a top 3 fantasy running back while missing almost a quarter of the season to suspension. The Dolphins allowed 140.4 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Bell is going to slaughter them.
4. My sources tell me that the Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been consulting with former Steelers WR and notorious Blasian Hines Ward this week. My guess at his gameplan:
Giants (+5) over PACKERS
Eli Manning obviously has an extremely punchable face. But is it even the most punchable from his own Draft Class? The contenders:
Eli Manning:
Ben Roethlisberger:
Phillip Rivers:
Matt Schaub:
It's a tough call, but I have to go with Rivers. Manning is a close second though.
Regardless, the Giants offense is a mess. It basically consists of 7 yard slant routes that Odell Beckham takes 60 yards to the endzone, and a pile of dogshit. Even though Paul Perkins is an exciting looking young running back, the Giants run game is completely ineffective for some reason. Eli Manning continues to be a complete mouth breather who gets away with some truly terrible throws, and always seems to be on the brink of disaster. This is not a good unit. However, the Packers simply don't have anyone to cover OBJ. Thanks to injuries, Green Bay's cornerback depth chart consists of Damarius Randall, LaDarius Gunter, Quenten Rollins, and Josh Hawkins. Woof. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Odell over 200 yards in this one.
The real reason to choose the Giants is their defense. After finishing 30th in defense last season, the Giants threw a pile of money and free agents, and for once that strategy actually paid off. With additions at every level of the field, New York's D improved to 2nd this season. They haven't allowed 30 points in a game all season, and have held the opposition under 20 points 8 times. They can rush the passer effectively with their front 4, and have excellent man-to-man coverage in the secondary. They were incredibly balanced, finishing 3rd in DVOA against the pass and 4th against the run.
The only reason to pick Green Bay is Aaron Rodgers, who has been a superhero over the past 6 weeks in leading the Pack to the playoffs. That being said, this game is going to be played in single digit weather on a frozen field, and the Giants defense is perfectly constructed to contain the Double Check Attack. I think the Packers receivers will struggle to get open, and the Giants D-Line will get enough pressure to disrupt Rodgers. The Packers might win through some Rodgers magic, but I see this game coming down to a field goal. I'll take the points.
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