NFL Week 3 Picks

Week 3 of the season, week 2 of getting free money* from Las Vegas. Last week I started strong, had a bit of a hiccup in the monday night games, and finished 8-8 against the spread. This week, there are ton of weird lines that make me veeeery nervous, but I will still be betting them all because I am an addict. As always, home team in CAPS.

PATRIOTS (+1.5) over Texans 

Third string rookie QB on 4 days notice? Playoff opponent coming off 2 straight victories? No problem. Bill Belichick is the single greatest sporting mind to ever exist on the planet Earth. Approaching halftime of this game, the TV broadcast cited the statistic that New England is 79-0 all time when leading at halftime at Gillette Stadium. 79-0! Freaking insane. Everything pointed to the Texans winning this one, but if you don't believe I bet on the Pats you are outside of your mind. 

All hail the Dark Lord

Broncos (+3.5) over BENGALS 

This is one of the harder games to call this week. On the one hand, I think the Bengals are very good. They beat the Jets in week 1, then lost on the road in week 2 to the Steelers, who are the second best team in football (3 guesses on my #1 team, if you need the first 2 we probably have never met). Cincinnati will probably be in the playoffs, but they don't match up well with Denver right now. Tyler Eifert is listed as doubtful for this game, and even if he suits up he will be extremely limited (much like Gronk this week). Without their full complement of weapons, I see the Bengals struggling against the Broncos all-world defense. That means the Bengals will be looking to win a defensive battle. I think Trevor Siemian sucks, but its not going to matter. CJ Anderson is a bona fide stud, and the Bengals are 18th in DVOA against the run so far this year. Denver runs the ball, shortens the game to limit Dalton's opportunities, and pulls out a close victory.

Raiders (-1) over TITANS

I think this line is way too low. The Raiders didn't handle their week 1 success well at all, losing at home to a mediocre at best Falcons team. Their defense looked like it has for the last few years, which is to say shitty. That's certainly concerning, as I thought they would be much better on that side of the ball this year, but I'm not giving up. Oakland hasn't gotten anything from Khalil Mack so far, which simply isn't going to continue. Their secondary has been awful, which is a real problem, but I don't think Tennessee has the offensive weapons or mentality to take advantage of that issue. Also, the Raiders offense has been one of the best in football, with 63 points through 2 games. 

Really though, this pick is driven more by what I don't like about the Titans than what I do like about the Raiders. Why do people think the Titans are winning this game? Because they beat the Lions by 3 on a miraculous 4th down TD pass in a terrible game ruined by 472 penalty calls? I like Marcus Mariota, but this team just doesn't make sense. Mike Mularkey is a terrible coach who wants to build a ground-and-pound team around one of the most dynamic spread QB's of the last decade, which... just no. 

Cardinals (-4) over BILLS

This is another line that seems too low to me. The Bills are freaking terrible, probably a bottom 5 team in the NFL. They are coached by caricatures of football coaches, two fat blowhards who emphasize defense and toughness while trotting out one of the worst defenses in football. Buffalo got absolutely TORCHED by the Jets last week to the tune of 37 points, and it honestly could have been worse than that. Would someone explain to me why the Ryan brothers still have jobs? I mean seriously, Rex was hired for his defensive genius, inherited a top five defense, and finished 29th in DVOA. Rob has been a defensive coordinator since 2004, and here are the rankings for his defenses: 27th, 23rd, 9th, 23rd, 18th, 30th, 17th, 16th, 23rd, 10th, 31st. What do they bring to the table???

Oh yeah, and the Cardinals OBLITERATED a playoff contender last week and are super pissed off that they've been dropped from most "best team in football" conversations.  

JAGUARS (+1) over Ravens

I'm Jaggin off, baby! Love to see Jacksonville as a home dog here. Yes, they are 0-2 and got their asses beat by a hobbled Chargers team last week. Yes, Blake Bortles is the ultimate garbage time QB. Yes, the defense is a dumpster fire. Yes, that is strange because Gus Bradley was supposed to be a defensive genius. Yes, Gus Bradley is 12-38 as a head coach (Jeeeesus). But here's the thing: I thought the Jags would be better this year. If I can't bet on them against a Ravens team that spotted the Browns a 20 point lead last week, then I can't ever bet on them. Maybe that's actually the better move? Eh, whatever. Home Dawgs!!

Browns (+9.5) over DOLPHINS

I am not taking the Dolphins by 10 points over anybody. Can't do it. Ryan Tannehill's numbers against the Pats all came on underneath throws against the softest of prevent defenses. He was 5-11 for 52 yards with a horrendous pick in the first half. The Browns absolutely suck, I think the Dolphins will win, but I simply can't put down actual money on the Dolphins -9.5. You can't make me. 

GIANTS (-3.5) over Redskins

Vegas made an absolute killing on the Giants last week, when everyone and their mother had the over in a game where the Giants failed to score even 17 points against the powder puff team the Saints have on defense. That game was classic G-Men, zigging when everyone is expecting a zag, and the only surprise was that they didn't find a way to lose in agonizing fashion. Usually, Mouth Breather Eli rebounds after a game like that, and he has a great matchup against this garbage Washington defense. 

If you, like me, lost money on New York last weekend,  there is some silver lining: no matter how big of a bet you made, it wasn't as bad as the wager Kirk Cousins is currently losing on himself. After ending last season on a hot streak, the Redskins offered Cousins a long term deal worth $16 million/year with $24 million guaranteed. Cousins turned down the offer, betting that after a successful 2016 he would have enough leverage to negotiate a monster deal. Instead, he has looked awful in both games this season and is in the process of reducing his value to well below what the team offered. With Cousins playing at replacement level, I don't see how the Redskins win this game. The media will be focused entirely on the Odell Beckham Jr. vs Josh Norman rematch, but I'm more interested in this game for the free money.

Lions (+7) over PACKERS

There is something wrong with the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers has been "slumping" for over a year now, and even the return of Jordy Nelson hasn't solved things for the Cheeseheads. Simply put, the Packers don't scheme very well. They rely on their receivers to create separation on their own, without help from bunch formations, stacked receivers, or pre-snap motion. That has worked well in the past, but as their weapons have degraded over the past several years, the offense has relied more and more on Rodgers' to make something out of nothing. While he does has improv skills bordering on the supernatural, it's simply too much to ask for Aaron to get everything done by himself. I certainly don't love the idea of taking the Lions in Lambeau Field, but asking the Packers to win by more than a touchdown is dicey. I really wish this wasn't Green Bay's home opener, because I can also see them winning by 500 in an "R-E-L-A-X" performance. 

PANTHERS (-7) over Vikings

I already hate this pick. Carolina gave up 27 points to the 49ers last week, and their defense doesn't look as nasty as it was last year. They won't have Jonathan Stewart this week, so their running game will rely on a glorified fullback (Mike Tolbert) and something called a Cameron Artis-Payne. Meanwhile, the Vikings have discovered a superstar receiver in Stefon Diggs, Sam Bradford threw for 286 and 2 TDs after 3 weeks with the playbook, and their defense is ferocious. Sure, the Vikings won't have Adrian Peterson, but they haven't really had him all season; the former MVP was averaging just 1.6 yards per rush before his knee injury. 

Im taking the Panthers for three reasons. 

1) I don't think either team will run the ball well, which means this game comes down to Cam Newton vs Sam Bradford. I know which side of that battle I want to be on.

2) The Panthers are at home, where they were 6-2 against the spread last season, including 3-1 in games where they were favored by at least 7.

3) The Vikings are coming off a huge win last week: in the opener of their new stadium, against their hated rival Packers, on national TV. Seems like they are prime candidates for a hangover loss to a really good football team. 

49ers (+9.5) over SEAHAWKS

A couple months ago, my family and I drove from Massachusetts to Michigan, a trip that is much shorter if you cut through Canada. I was amazed at how different our experiences at the border were depending on which direction we were going; coming back into the US, we were extensively questioned about our travels, had our passports thoroughly checked, and even had our car searched. Going north, the mounties basically just waved us through with a smile and an "Eh budday, welcome to Canada!" 

I tell that story partly because Canadians are hilarious, but mostly because it's harder to get past the southern border of America's hat than it is to get past Seattle's offensive line. Russell Wilson has been sacked five times already, and that number actually undersells the punishment he's taking. He's already suffered a high ankle sprain, which is limiting his mobility. Seattle has 1 touchdown in 2 games, and things aren't getting any better for them: Tyler Lockette, Doug Baldwin, and Thomas Rawls all got hurt last week. Seattle has no running game because they can't block, and their weapons are falling like raindrops. The only way they cover a spread this large is if their defense produces a couple turnovers and pitches a shutout. 

BUCCANEERS (-5) over Rams

The Bucs got curb stomped by the Cardinals last week. Jameis had the worst game of his career, with 5 turnovers and only 7 points scored. These are facts, and they aren't good for Tampa. However, I think they will be able to forget about that abortion of a performance and bounce back strong at home this week. Also, the Rams haven't scored a touchdown this season and they are inexplicably still starting Kase Keenum at the most important position in sports.

"Uh oh... should have skipped that second burrito"  

Steelers (-3.5) over EAGLES

Let's all take it easy with the Carson Wentz blowjobs for a second, the Eagles have played the Browns and the Bears. The Steelers are a serious Super Bowl contender. Their fans travel incredibly well, and they won't even have to leave the state to make it to this one. If Philly's rookie QB falters at all, I think the Steelers will get on a roll and run away with this one in the second half. Also, the Eagles will be covering Antonio Brown with Leodis McKelvin and Nolan Carroll.... LOL good luck with that!

CHIEFS (-3) over Jets

I don't know what to make of the Jets. Their offense looked unstoppable last week, running up 37 points on Buffalo without the benefit of turnovers creating short fields. The receiver trio of Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and Quincy Enunwa is as good as it gets in the AFC, and Matt Forte looks thrilled that he escaped from Chicago. The defensive line is ferocious, making the Jets a very well rounded and dangerous team on paper. So why don't I have them beating a shaky Chiefs squad? Two reasons: injuries and Jetsiness. All three of the receivers I mentioned earlier appeared on the Jets injury report this week, and even though Marshall is the only one who looks questionable to play on Sunday, it's not hard to imagine the Jets offense being a bit sluggish. The other reason comes from watching the team. The Jets absolutely dominated the Bills in every facet of the game last week, but somehow only won by 6. Time after time, the Jets would march down the field and score, then let the Bills back in the game with a big touchdown off a broken play or a series of stupid penalties. The Jets have had a handful of talented teams in recent years, but they have an uncanny ability to lose games in the most facepalm inducing manner possible. 

I definitely don't love what the Chiefs have done so far this season, especially on defense where Justin Houston's absence is making even more of an impact than anticipated. However, I think this game will be won by whichever team plays cleaner football, and I trust that Kansas City won't shoot themselves in the foot at home. Unless, of course, Andy Reid has to manage the clock. Then KC is fucked. 

Chargers (+1) over COLTS

The Colts are so, so bad. Since 2011, Indianapolis has made 30 selections in the NFL draft. Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton are the only players among those picks that are better than replacement level. The result is a roster with very little upside, and none of it is on defense. Or on the offensive line. Or in the running game. In fact, if Luck doesn't dominate through the air, this team has little chance to beat anybody. 

The Chargers aren't exactly the cream of the NFL crop, but they are definitely better than anticipated. Losing Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead certainly hurts their offense, but I don't think it cripples them. Tyrell Williams is now the #1 target in San Diego, and while he is largely unknown, he showed last week that he is an athletic FREAK, and has the potential to become a star this season. 

I don't really like either of these teams, and I don't want or expect to see either of them playing in January. However, I really hate the Colts, so Im taking the extra point here. 

COWBOYS (-7) over Bears

Everything about this game sucks and I can't believe they scheduled it for Sunday Night Football, which is usually the best game of the week. Jay Cutler is almost surely out with a sprained thumb on his throwing hand, which removes all of the intrigue from this matchup. Sometimes, the prospect of a backup QB is exciting; you get to watch an unknown player take on a big challenge, and the results can either be impressive or hilariously bad. Sadly, the Bears backup is Brian Hoyer, who is not even interesting let alone exciting. We've seen enough of Hoyer to know that he won't be wildly impressive, but probably won't provide comic relief either. The Bears offense has almost no hope, the Cowboys without Romo aren't exciting either, and this game is just a giant turd. 

SAINTS (-3) over Falcons

New Orleans' defense is god awful, so they need Drew Brees to win shootouts. Unfortunately, Brees is much worse on the road than he is in the friendly confines of the Superdome, which makes winning shootouts on the road a much tougher proposition. Thus, if the Saints are going to make the playoffs, they have to be a dominant home team, like 7-1 or 6-2. They already have one loss at home in their 0-2 start, which makes this a must win game for them; they aren't recovering from an 0-3 start. The Falcons are the definition of mediocre, and if the Saints can't win games like these then it's time to bury the Sean Peyton-Drew Brees era. 

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 8-8 (never bet week 1, no matter how tempting it is) 

NFL Week 2 Picks

     

    Before we get to my picks, here's a word of warning: week 2 in the NFL is usually a great week for Vegas. It's really easy to overreact to week 1 and throw all your money on the 49ers, or to panic about Arizona losing to a backup QB (so handsome). With that being said, we have now seen these teams in meaningful action, and that does give us something to go on. Let's get to it (home team in caps).

Jets (PK) over BILLS (Thurs)

This line opened at Jets -3, then swung all the way to Bills -1, now it's going back towards the Jets. That indicates that a lot of people were taking the Bills early in the week, which makes me very confused. The Jets D-line looked mean as hell while sacking Andy Dalton 7 times in week 1, and they barely lost to a playoff favorite. Meanwhile, the Bills looked like dogshit, losing to the Ravens and only scoring 7 points. Not to mention, Sammy Watkins is questionable with a foot injury, and while I expect him to play, he will be limited. What am I missing here? 

LIONS (-6) over Titans

Jim Bob Cooter has the best name in football, possibly the entire world. Even better? That's his legal name. He's not James Roberts, he's Jim Bob through and through, in every context. That's just the best. I haven't googled it, but I have to imagine his mom's name is Becky Sue. 

Oh yeah, also the Titans are trash and have a terrible coach. 

Chiefs (+2.5) over TEXANS 

This is a classic example of an overreaction line. Kansas City was very lucky to come back against the Chargers and escape with an overtime win, while the Texans looked solid in a victory over the Bears. But here's the thing: the Bears absolutely suck, and the Chargers are better than people think (at least with Keenan Allen on the field, RIP). The Chiefs offense was outstanding in the second half, and I don't think they will be stopped cold by the Texans D. I thought KC was a really good team before the season, and I'm not gonna bail on them. 

Wait I'm GETTING points here? Why, thank you!

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Dolphins

The Dolphins always play the Patriots tough in Miami, but they haven't been within 10 points of New England in Foxboro since 2008. Jimmy Garappollo led a competent offense to 23 points on the road against Arizona last week, and now he's getting his left tackle and possibly the best tight end in human history back from injury. I know the Dolphins defense is decent, but the Pats are going to score 30, and I can't see Miami getting to 24. 

Ravens (-6.5) over BROWNS

Poor RGIII. After fracturing a bone in his shoulder, the Browns QB has been placed on injured reserve and won't be eligible to return until week 10. I was rooting for RGIII to make a comeback in Cleveland, but this latest injury makes it pretty clear that's not happening. Honestly, when I watch Bobby it looks like he's made entirely of flailing limbs, and that frame just isn't meant to play such a violent game. 

As for this game, the Browns will now be rolling with Josh McCown under center. McCown might be a workable game manager in a better situation, but with essentially no weapons on offense and one of the worst defenses in football, this is a recipe for disaster. Honestly, I don't really see how the Browns are going to win against anybody, and they might go 0-16. Looking at their schedule, the only games I can see them having a chance in are both on the road, week 6 at Tennessee and week 15 at Buffalo. If they do go winless, the Browns would actually outstrip the 2008 Lions, because Cleveland also lost all four of its preseason games this year. Ironically, the 08 Lions were actually 4-0 in practice games. 

PANTHERS (-13.5) over 49ers

2 PM on Sunday: 49ers bettors realize that they've taken Blaine Gabbert, on the road, against one of the most aggressive and talented defenses in the league. They regret lighting their money on fire, drink excessively to drown the pain, and drive into a ditch on the way home. 

STEELERS (-3.5) over Bengals

As a proud owner of Antonio Brown in two separate fantasy leagues, I am in love with the fact that he is virtually unstoppable. Despite the rash of suspensions levied against the Steelers offense, AB just keeps on cooking. Also, can we get DeAngelo Williams to pee in a cup? The dude was cut after the 2014 season, when he amassed just 219 yards across 6 games and looked completely out of juice. Two years later, at 33,  he ran for 127 yards in week 1. Throw in the Monday night emergence of Eli Rogers as the favorite for the 2016 "random contributor the Steelers pull out of their asses" award, and you have the recipe for the 38 point whooping Pittsburgh put on a 2015 playoff team in week 1. I think this game will be competitive, but with no Tyler Eifert and playing on the road, I don't think the Bengals will have enough. I picture the Steelers driving for a game winning TD late and winning something like 28-24.

Cowboys (+2.5) over REDSKINS

Dak Prescott didn't look great against the Giants, but he did look serviceable. He didn't do much in the way of pushing the ball downfield, but he might not have to against Washington. The Skins were eviscerated by short and intermediate routes against Pittsburgh, so their weakness matches up well with what the Cowboys want to do. One thing that would help Dallas is to get Dez Bryant more involved; he had just 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 targets in week 1, and if Washington declines to shadow him with Josh Norman then Dallas should be able to get their #1 receiver into favorable matchups.

 GIANTS (-4.5) over New Orleans

The Saints defense is the worst disaster to ever happen to the city of New Orleans. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are going to combine for about a million yards this week. Giants fans are going to be irrationally excited about their season. These are facts.

Also a fact, Drew Brees is a different player on the road. Look at these splits from last season:

Home/Away	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	1st	1st%	20+	Sck	Rate
Home Games	337	237	70.3	2,853	8.5	80	23	5	138	40.9	39	16	112.5
Road Games	290	191	65.9	2,017	7.0	63	9	6	90	31.0	29	15	87.7

That's insane! This game is going to be a blowout! The only thing keeping this line down is the Giants history of shitting the bed in games exactly like this one... crap. I may have just talked myself out of this pick.

Buccaneers (+7) over CARDINALS

Famous Jameis looked AWESOME in throwing 4 TDs against the Falcons. The Tampa Bay playoff train is running full steam ahead, and I'm driving the locomotive. The Cardinals might very well still be groggy from the spell Bill Belichick put them under on Sunday night, and they certainly had some weaknesses exposed. Of course, it's also possible that Sunday night just made them incredibly pissed off, and the Bucs are headed into a hornets nest in the desert. I guess I'll just have to take the points.

RAMS (+6.5) over Seahawks

The Rams have actually beaten the Seahawks in 3 of their last 4 meetings, and I think they will at least keep it close. The Rams are better than they looked in week 1. I mean, they pretty much have to be, because their entire roster struggled worse than Richie Incognito trying to take the MCAT. Of course, the Seahawks defense is much, much better than San Francisco's, but I do think the Rams will be able to scrap together a few points from somewhere. Meanwhile, Seattle's offensive line is a sieve. They are trying to get Russell Wilson killed, and they might succeed this week if Aaron Donald has his way. This is another great chance to overreact to week 1, but I'm going with the bigger picture and taking the home dog.

BRONCOS (-6) over Colts

Andrew Luck is really good. Other than Andrew Luck, the Colts absolutely blow. The Broncos are going to run ALL OVER the Indy D, and there are no playmakers on that side of the ball to turn things around for the Colts with momentum shifting plays. Andy will do his best to keep the Colts competitive, but Denver's defense at home is going to give up no more than 21 points.

RAIDERS (-4.5) over Falcons

The Raiders offense was excellent in New Orleans, and Jack Del Rio's decision to go for 2 and the win at the end of regulation was inspired. When coaches make bold choices like that one, and they work out, its a positive sign from the universe for where the season is going. Oh yeah, and Oakland won without getting anything from Khalil Mack. He's not going to be anonymous two weeks in a row. Atlanta's combination of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones makes them ok, but there's just not enough here to take the Falcons.  

Jaguars (+3) over SAN DIEGO

I was impressed by Jaxonville in week 1, even though they lost. They were playing Aaron Rodgers, did you really expect them to win? Keeping it close shows that the Jags have made progress, and they are the team I expected before the season. Really though, this is a pick against the Chargers. San Diego looked great on offense in the first half of week 1, but then Keenan Allen tore his ACL. Check this out:

 

Evan SilvaVerified account‏@evansilva

Philip Rivers in Keenan Allen's 39 career games: 69% completions 7.9 YPA 76 TD 30 INT His last 39 games w/o Allen: 62% 7.1 YPA 67 TD 41 INT

• RETWEETS37
• LIKES64
• 

1:09 PM - 11 May 2016

The difference in San Diego's offense was obvious against KC, as they managed to score just 7 points after Allen went down. 

Packers (-2.5) over VIKINGS

Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night. Sam Bradford making his first start after just a few weeks with the playbook. The line isn't even a field goal? Ok...

Eagles (+3) over BEARS

Carson Wentz looked really good in his professional debut. Sure, it was against the Browns, but still. 

The Bears defense isn't good either. In fact, I don't know what the Bears do well beyond Cutler throwing to Alshon Jeffrey. While the Eagles have an awful secondary, their defensive line is dominant and will make Chicago completely one dimensional. The line here indicates that Vegas sees this matchup as a pick em at a neutral site, which I think is fair. Given how much Eagles fans hate the Eagles, though, I don't think the Chicago crowd really represents a hostile environment. For Philly, all crowds are equally hostile, so I'll take the points.

NFL Preview: NFC South

Welcome to my NFL preview! Over the next couple of days I will be going through the NFL division by division, picking how I think the standings will look at the end of the year as well as offering my picks for over/under win totals for each team. I will be using the odds listed on Bovada's website for team win totals. I will also be using Football Outsider's DVOA rankings quite a bit throughout the preview. If you don't know what DVOA is, click here for an explanation.  

NFC SOUTH

This division is the home of the NCF champions, the Carolina Panthers, who had a magical 15-1 season before falling apart in the Super Bowl. They are among the favorites to win it all again this year, according to Vegas, but the wind of change might be brewing in this division. Let's get to it.

4. New Orleans Saints

2015 Record: 7-9

Offensive DVOA: 7th

Defensive DVOA: DFL

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7 over -110 under -120

     The Saints have a Hall of Fame QB, one Super Bowl ring, and a ton of wasted money in free agency selling out for another. They didn't get close, and their salary cap situation is a total nightmare. They just signed Drew Brees to a five-year extension that lowers his cap hit this season from a completely unbearable $30 million to $17.5 million, which gives them a bit of wiggle room. However, I just don't see this team being able to pull it all together before the end of Brees' career. Not to knock Drew at all, but this roster just isn't good enough, even for an incredibly talented passer.

Never forget, Drew Brees has a rubber neck

     Offensively, Brees' receiving corps consists of Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead IV, Brandon Coleman, and Michael Thomas. Cooks is obviously the main man here, but this group is full of anonymous, speedy little receivers. New Orleans drafted  6'3" Michael Thomas out of Ohio State to add more size, so we'll see if Drew can develop Thomas into a new wave Marques Colston. Another newcomer is tight end Colby Fleener, who showed flashes of ability in Indianapolis but never really put it all together. Now, he will be the starter for an offense that got the corpse of Benjamin Watson to 74 catches last season. If Fleener is ever going to become a star, this is the time. In the running game, the Saints have a capable offensive line and a decent starter in Mark Ingram. Unfortunately, they don't get the chance to rely on the ground game very much because their defense is about as bad as an NFL defense can get, so they usually find themselves in shootouts.

     Last year, the Saints finished dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA, and that actually oversells their performance. Their DVOA was the worst ever recorded, going back to 1989. They allows an average of almost 30 points per game, which is ludicrous. They weren't good at all against the run, but they were straight up gruesome against the pass. And their big plan to fix the defense? Sign James Laurinitis, a decent at best middle linebacker. Basically, their horrendous cap situation forces the Saints to hope that the guys they have play better than they did last year. Good luck with that.

     The only way the Saints are going to win games this year is by coming out on top of shootouts. Drew Brees is incredible, but he won't get this team into playoff contention. If an opposing defense can even contain the Saints a little bit, that should be enough to win. New Orleans' defense is just too much of a dumpster fire to overcome.

The Bet: under

3. Atlanta Falcons

2015 Record: 8-8

Offensive DVOA: 23rd

Defensive DVOA: 22nd 

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7.5 over +110 under -140

     Atlanta competed for an NFC Championship just a couple of years ago, but things have gone downhill since then. They started 6-1 last year, but then fell off a cliff with 6 straight losses. they went 6-5 in games decided by 7 points or less, which is a crazy high number. Teams typically regress towards .500 in those games, so the Falcons record there speaks to a team that is somewhere in the middle of the league. They had a pythagorean win expectation of 7.8, so it seems that their record was an accurate reflection of the way they played.

     The Falcons have been so up and down in recent years because of the star-centric nature of their roster. They are incredibly reliant on Julio Jones, which is sensible because he was created in a football laboratory to ruin cornerbacks' lives. But it also leaves them vulnerable to any kind of injury. They signed Mohamed Sanu to support Jones and profit from the space he creates. I think some people are excited about this move, but I'm not sure why. Sanu played the first four years of his career in Cincinnati, feasting off the scraps of superstar AJ Green. Except... Sanu didn't so much feast as he did nibble. His best season was in 2014, when he had 56 receptions for 790 yards and 5 TDs. It's his only season with more than 500 yards receiving. I don't know why people expect him to do better than that with his new team, but if he doesn't then he really won't be an upgrade.

      More than any lack of depth at the skill positions though, the offense's biggest problem has been poor offensive line play. Ryan has struggled at times because he is not given enough time to throw, which really limits how creative they can be. Atlanta tried to address this issue in the offseason, bringing in veteran Pro Bowl center Alex Mack from Cleveland to lead the unit. Mack should help, but he's just one man and can only do so much. Atlanta's offense should be a bit better, but I don't expect them to be top 10.

     The defense wasn't very good last year against either the ground or passing attack, finishing 22nd and 23rd in DVOA respectively. One of the Falcons biggest issues was generating a pass rush; they were the worst 4-3 defense at getting pressure on the quarterback in 2015, according to Pro Football Focus. The front office did very little to improve the rush in the offseason, as Atlanta will once again rely on Jonathan Babineaux and Tyson Jackson to generate sacks. While the Falcons still have one of the best cover corners alive (Desmond Trufant) and another couple of solid secondary players in Robert Alford and Ricardo Allen, no coverage is good enough to consistently hold up with an anemic pass rush.

     While the Falcons didn't do much to improve against the pass, they did make efforts to get better against the run. Atlanta invested quite a bit of draft capital in renovating their linebackers group, bringing in Deon Jones with a second round pick and De'Vondre Campbell with a fourth rounder. Both of those guys will be starting from week 1, which is asking a lot from any rookie. However, even if there's a steep learning curve for those guys early, they should be at least a small improvement over last year's injured and ineffective group.

     The Falcons certainly will do some things well, and have the potential to beat anybody on the right day. However, they simply aren't deep or balanced enough to get consistent results, and they can lose to anybody on the wrong day. Julio Jones can't do everything by himself, and Atlanta needs him to. They still won't be able to rush the passer, and will still be vulnerable against good running games. Basically, they seem like an 8-8 team once again. However, they are also facing one of the most difficult schedules of any team in the league. They play the AFC West and NFC West, two very strong divisions, and they also get the Packers by way of their second place finish last year. That means that unless you think the Falcons will beat the Seahawks, Cardinals, Packers, Chiefs, Broncos, or Panthers, then they are capped at 9 wins.

The bet: under

2. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

2015 Record: 6-10

Offensive DVOA: 17th

Defensive DVOA: 18th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7 over -125 under -105

     People have been waiting for (and betting on) the Bucs resurgence for three or four years running. Two years ago, those expectations ended in the #1 pick. Last year, a ton of buzz about Jameis turning the team around ended with another last place finish. This year, they are a trendy sleeper pick. So am I ready to jump on the Bucs playoff band wagon?

     Offensively, Tampa has a chance to be really good. Doug Martin rushed for 1402 yards last year, second most in the NFL. Martin should be successful again this year, despite Logan Mankins retirement weakening his offensive line. Jamies has a pair of huge bodies to throw to on the outside in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, and he should be a more developed passer in his second season. He has already shown that he has all the tools, but now he needs to be more consistent and cut down on the turnovers. If he can take a step forward in his second year, the Bucs offense can be playoff caliber.

Too hilarious to leave out

    My concerns about this team are on the defensive side. They were top 10 against the pass last season, and should be just as good this year, with cornerbacks Alterraun Verner and Brent Grimes being joined by 1st round pick Vernon Hargreaves III. The pass rush, which mostly consisted of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, should get a boost from the addition of defensive end Robert Ayers. The Bucs also have the luxury of Lavonte David, who is probably the best cover linebacker outside of Luke Keuchly. However, the Bucs defense struggled against the run last year, finishing 26th in DVOA. It's weird to consider that a team with stars at defensive tackle and linebacker would be soft against the ground game, but Tampa was. Moreover, they did almost nothing to get better. They will rely upon Kwon Alexander and Daryl Smith at the other two linebacker spots, which is just an irresponsible decision, and they somehow don't have anyone better than Chris Conte to play strong safety. Somehow, Tampa Bay looked at its biggest weakness and decided to do absolutely nothing about it in the offseason.

     When you can't defend the run, you allow the other team to dictate a ton of what happens in the game. They get to control the pace of play, your defense spends a lot of time on the field, and your offense feels the pressure to do more with fewer opportunities. I think the Bucs will do a lot of things well this year, and will win games. They will compete for a playoff spot. But until they address their biggest weakness, I think they will fall just short.

The Bet: over.

I regret this bet already

1. Carolina Panthers

2015 Record: 15-1

Offensive DVOA: 8th

Defensive DVOA: 2nd

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 10.5 under -105 over -125

     There is a long history of Super Bowl losers experiencing major hangover effects in the following season. The Panthers had a pretty magical run last year, far exceeding expectations in winning the NFC, so they might seem like a prime candidate for a major letdown season. Vegas isn't buying into that storyline though, as they have the Panthers tied for the highest over/under win total of any team.

     Offensively, everything the Panthers do runs through the reigning MVP, Cam Newton. Newton's ability as a runner opens up all kinds of options, enabling them to employ the most complex and effective ground game in the NFL. Cam is incredible in short yardage, converting on almost half of his 3rd down rushing attempts. He also scored 10 touchdowns on the ground, 1 short of leading the entire league. Honestly, what Cam did last year is mind blowing. He threw 35 TD passes to Greg Olsen, a guy who used to be named Philly (seriously, wtf?), and Ted Ginn Jr., who has the worst hands imaginable for someone who gets paid to catch things. Ginn caught just 45.4% of the passes targeted to him last season. Fucking 45%! Ted Ginn makes catching a football look harder than hitting a baseball, and he was the best wide receiver on a Super Bowl team. Inconceivable. The Panthers will be getting Kelvin Benjamin back from his torn ACL this year, so basically the #1 scoring offense from last year is adding a #1 receiver. Good luck defenses!

Eyes on the ball, dickhead

    The Panthers defense will also look very similar this year, with one major exception. Cornerback Josh Norman became a superstar for Carolina more or less out of nowhere last season, and signed a massive contract with Washington in the offseason. Carolina left Norman on an island a lot last year, and they don't have an obvious replacement to fill that role. Bene Benwikere has gotten a lot of praise, but he's an unproven commodity. Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott has a history of getting great production from unknown defensive backs, but if he can't pull that trick again then the Panthers will have to shift their scheme to make up for Norman's absence.

     Even if the secondary struggles, that won't be enough to derail the defense completely. Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly are the best linebacking duo in the NFL, playing sideline to sideline against both the run and pass. Hell, I'm pretty sure those pictures of Davis' arm before the Super Bowl confirm that he is a full-fledged cyborg. Kony Ealy would have won Super Bowl MVP if the Panthers had won the game, and has the potential to completely dominate from the defensive end position this year. Charles Johnson is back to beat the crap out of quarterbacks. Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short are both still massive, gap plugging run stoppers. This front seven is among the best in football, and keeps the floor for this defense high.

     Considering that the Panthers had the best record in football last season and their roster didn't change much in the offseason, it's hard to come up with a scenario in which they don't at least win their division. Maybe Cam has a Super Bowl hangover and takes a step back. Maybe they don't have the injury luck they had last year, when they were among the healthiest teams in football. If a couple offensive linemen go down, maybe that throws off their whole running game and the offense sputters. Maybe Josh Norman was a key piece of that defense, and it falls apart a bit without him. However, even if some of those things come true and the Panthers have a nightmare season, that still won't kill their playoff chances. Remember, Carolina won this division in 2014 with a 7-9 record. They have by far the most talented roster in the NFC South, and they are among the most legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The Bet: over 
   
      

NFL Preview: NFC West Edition

Welcome to my NFL preview! Over the next couple of days I will be going through the NFL division by division, picking how I think the standings will look at the end of the year as well as offering my picks for over/under win totals for each team. I will be using the odds listed on Bovada's website for team win totals. I will also be using Football Outsider's DVOA rankings quite a bit throughout the preview. If you don't know what DVOA is, click here for an explanation.  

NFC West

Since 2013, at least one team from the NFC West has made it at least to the NFC Championship game. Once again, this division boasts two Super Bowl favorites who will battle it out for divisional supremacy, a fringe playoff contender, and a dumpster fire. Let's get to it. 

4. San Francisco 49er's 

2015 Record: 5-11

Offensive DVOA: 27th

Defensive DVOA: 32th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 5.5, over even under -130

     It's hard to believe how things have fallen apart for San Francisco. Less than 3 years ago, the 49er's were playing in the NFC Championship game, and fell just short of appearing in back-to-back Super Bowls. They had a dominant offensive line, a ferocious defense stacked with young talent, a star head coach, and a young stud QB who was poised to completely revolutionize the position. Now, the linemen are on other rosters, the defense is either retired or suspended, the coach is back in college, and the QB is a controversial backup who we will see much more of during the pre-game ceremonies than we will after kickoff. Once a burgeoning dynasty, the 49ers are in full on rebuilding mode.

TFW you win the breakup

     In 2015, the 49ers had the worst offense in the NFL, and they will be near the bottom again in 2016. Colin Kaepernick has lost the starting job somehow, and it's still unclear exactly what happened to him. While he was never a pinpoint accurate passer, his athleticism and arm strength more than made up for it. Since Jim Harbaugh left town though, Kaepernick has lost any trace of accuracy he once had, and even his running is far less effective than it once was. I have no idea what caused Kap's meltdown, but you know the team hasn't seen anything to give them hope of a rebound because they're going to play Blaine Gabbert instead. Gabbert has never been any good, and with Torrey Smith as the top receiving target and a suspect offensive line I don't see a lot of good coming from the passing game. The one hope for San Francisco is that a healthy Carlos Hyde jumpstarts their running game, which opens up some space for Gabbert to work. However, I just don't see that happening with the blocking they have and the reality that opposing defenses are going to stack the box from the first quarter.

     On defense, the cupboard is almost as bare. NaVarro Bowman is a superstar, one of the best all-around linebackers of his generation, but he's lost all of his running mates. If the 49ers were a movie franchise, then Bowman is Yoda; he looks and acts the same from one trilogy to the next, but EVERYTHING else has gone to shit.

     The 49ers do seem to have a plan for the future, and they are building towards it. They made 11 picks in this year's draft, including two first rounders that they used to pick up a stud lineman on either side of the ball. However, those moves probably won't help them much this season, and as a result there's not a lot I can see them doing well. There's a reason their over/under number is so low. On the other hand, they do have some winnable games on the schedule. The NFC West plays the AFC East and NFC South this season, which gives the 49ers potentially winnable games against the Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Falcons, Bucs, and Saints. They play a last place schedule, which gives them the Bears and Cowboys (in week 4 so definitely no Tony Romo). They also get two cracks at the Rams and their rookie QB, so there are 10 games they have a decent shot at, plus the small hope of a miraculous upset in their other 6. Can they get to 6 wins to hit the over?

    I don't think so. Last season, their five wins were: Rams, at Bears, Falcons, Ravens, Vikings. Three of those teams appear on the schedule again this year, so they would have to repeat those wins (against teams that have improved) or find new soft spots in the schedule. They also went 4-2 in games decided by 1 score or less, with their only solid win coming in baffling fashion week 1 versus the Vikings. I think the 49ers were lucky to get 5 wins last season, and they haven't gotten any better.

The Bet: under
  

3. Los Angeles Rams

2015 Record: 7-9

Offensive DVOA: 16th

Defensive DVOA: 7th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7.5, over +140 under -170

     The Rams moved to Los Angeles. It's been a long time since that city had a football team. They left St. Louis, a struggling city that connected to the team and the place where the team had its best seasons.

     Ok now that that's out of the way, here's the thing: the Rams are coached by Jeff Fisher. Fisher has been a head coach for 21 years, and his teams have finished either 7-9 or 8-8 in 10 of them. His career winning percentage is .509. He is amazingly mediocre, fantastically decent, amazingly average.

Definitely some poop in that one

     The Rams offense is going to rely on Todd Gurley to an insane degree. They should, because Todd Gurley is like Nightcrawler crossed with a pissed off rhino. He started just 12 games as a rookie, and piled up 1106 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. 46% of his total yards came on runs of 15 yards or more, so he is a home run threat. He is the heir to Adrian Peterson, and one of the last true three down running backs in the NFL. However, LA will need Gurley to be a monster, because the rest of the offense is dogshit. According to my inside sourcs (Hard Knocks cameras) the Rams will start the season with Case Keenum under center while they groom first overall pick Jared Goff. They will be asking Keenum to put together a competent passing offense throwing to the following targets: Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, Brian Quick, Corey Harkey and Lance Kendricks. Those are all real names of NFL players. You couldn't light a fire under that group even if you had a blowtorch and all the methane from a season's worth of Fisher farts.

      What the Rams lack in offense, they hope to make up for in defense. Everything here starts up front, where they are downright hellacious. Aaron Donald is by far the best defensive tackle alive, and would be the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year if JJ Watt weren't a thing. Donald had 39 combined sacks and QB hits last season; the second best defensive lineman in the league had 21. He's a monster. They will also be getting Robert Quinn back healthy, so that sucks for opposing passers everywhere. Oh, and they netted former first round pick Dominique Easley from the Patriots, just in case they needed another massive human to torment offenses with. Behind the line of hellhounds, the Rams have Alec Ogletree, an insanely athletic linebacker who covers a stupid amount of ground from sideline to sideline. Ogletree will be captaining the defense this season for the first time, and is poised to become a superstar. In the secondary, the Rams should be ok with Coty Sensabaugh and Lamarcus Joyner on the outside, and with the damage they are going to cause up front the secondary probably won't matter much anyway.

   Basically, this Rams team is going to look very familiar. They will play great defense, run the ball, and try to win every game 17-13 with a gritty, blue collar style of play. I'm sure LA will love it. It's certainly not impossible to succeed playing that way, but unfortunately the Rams play in a division with two of the best teams in football, with defenses just as good and offenses lightyears better. I have absolutely no idea how to pick this bet, because the Rams are winning somewhere between 7 and 9 games. I guess I'll go with the better payoff.

The Bet: over    

2. Seattle Seahawks

2015 Record: 10-6

Offensive DVOA: 1st

Defensive DVOA: 4th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 10.5, over -145 under +115

    Pete Carroll has been in Seattle ever since he ran away from NCAA sanctions left USC, and he has built the Seahawks into a dynasty. He also made the dumbest coaching move I've ever seen, costing his team a Super Bowl in the process. After a rough 2-4 start to last season, the Seahawks went on a tear after their bye week, finished the season with 6 wins in 7 games, and came up just short of an epic comeback against the Panthers in the playoffs.

     On defense, the Seahawks will look very similar to the dominant unit of the past several seasons. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are still there to rush the passer. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas will be patrolling the secondary, squeezing the space opposing QB's have to work with. Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner are back to rain violent destruction on anyone who dares to come over the middle. Once again, they lost a couple ancillary pieces in the offseason (Brandon Mebane), but the core of this elite unit remains very much intact, and barring a catastrophe they will be in the top 5 again.

     The offense is going to have a bit of a different look to it this year. In February, Marshawn Lynch realized he has enough money to buy a lifetime supply of skittles, and immediately retired. Beast Mode was the heart of this team, and his absence means that the offense is unquestionably Russell Wilson's unit. Wilson went on an unholy tear at the end of last season (when Lynch was hurt), throwing for 23 TDs with just 2 INT from weeks 11-17. Wilson comes into this season with the second best MVP odds of any player, and if his magic carries over the award will be his to lose. I still think he's a total weenie, but his unique blend of skills is undeniable and he unlocks absolutely everything Seattle wants to do on offense. With Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael ready to fill the void left by Lynch in the running game, and a full offseason to integrate Jimmy Graham into the passing game, the Seahawks offense is poised for their best results yet.

     Of course, that view of the offense is the optimistic one, and there's a nightmare scenario that has a very real chance of coming true. Seattle's biggest weakness has been the offensive line, and they did nothing to improve that unit. In fact, they lost their best blocker in Russell Okung, and as a result now have exactly zero above average offensive linemen. Rawls looked good in a small sample last year, but what happens if the new look running game can't get anything going without Beast Mode? Wilson has succeeded while dealing with terrible offensive line play for his entire career, but he's never done so in a pass first offense. Maybe with more defensive focus on him, Wilson struggles. The O-line get him pummeled into the ground, he gets hurt midway through the season, and everything falls apart in Seattle. That scenario is a big reason why I picked Seattle to finish second in the division, but I won't let it affect my casino behavior. This is a really good team, and they haven't won less than 10 games since 2011.

The Bet: over

1. Arizona Cardinals 

2015 Record: 13-3

Offensive DVOA: 3rd

Defensive DVOA: 3rd

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 10 over -160 under +130

     This will be the 4th season for Bruce Arians as Head Coach in Arizona, and he has his best team yet. That sounds crazy, considering they finished 13-3 last year and made it to the NFC Championship game, but it's true. The Cardinals have increased their win total in each of the past 3 seasons, and might do so again this year. They might even get over the hump and beat Carolina, the team that ended their season in both 2015 and 2014.

     On offense, Carson Palmer returns to lead a unit that wants to throw the ball deep and then throw it deeper. They might have the NFL's best trio of wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald (who is basically Gandalf), Michael Floyd (who is the best receiver you don't know), and John Brown (who is basically Roadrunner). They have second year running back David Johnson, who has taken the starting job from Chris Johnson and has a chance to vault himself into the discussion for best back in football. They have a great offensive line led by a pair of All-Pro guards in Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati, which should give Johnson plenty of space, and keep Palmer upright and healthy. Unless Palmer gets hurt again, or has some kind of mental breakdown stemming from his 7 turnover NFC Championship Game, the Cardinals will finish in the top 5 offensively.

I miss you and your freakishly long arms already

     Defensively, Arizona was one of the most creative, aggressive, and successful defenses in the league last year, and they got significantly better in the offseason. They still have all the insane athletes who fly around, and they still play a revolutionary, somewhat position-less hybrid defense born out of Arians' genius. Patrick Peterson is still one of the best cover corners in the league, and Tyrann Mathieu is back as a freakish corner/safety hybrid that allows him to make plays no other defensive back can. They still have Kevin Minter and Deone Bucannon flying all over the field in the linebacker spots, and they still have Calais Campbell anchoring the defensive front. However, they made a major addition by trading Jonathan Cooper and a 4th rounder to the Patriots for defensive end Chandler Jones. Jones is another unbelievable athlete, had 12.5 sacks last season, and is in a contract year. The Cardinals have never had a pure pass rushing beast like Jones, and I'm genuinely excited to see what this defense does when they don't have to blitz to create pressure. Without a great pass rusher, these guys finished 3rd in defensive DVOA. Now that they have one, this could easily be the best unit on either side of the ball in the entire NFL. It's just not fair.

     Unless Palmer collapses completely, it's hard to see how this team doesn't finish right near the top of the NFC. Hell, they're even catching breaks with the schedule: they are the only NFC West team that won't have to face Tom Brady (they play the Patriots in week 1), and as a division winner from last year they also play the Vikings, who just lost their starting QB for the season. Honestly, there are only 4 or 5 games that I can even imagine the Cardinals losing. I really don't understand the win total here, but that won't stop me from taking advantage of it.

The Bet: massive amounts on the over

NFL Preview: AFC West Edition

Welcome to my NFL preview! Over the next couple of days I will be going through the NFL division by division, picking how I think the standings will look at the end of the year as well as offering my picks for over/under win totals for each team. I will be using the odds listed on Bovada's website for team win totals. I will also be using Football Outsider's DVOA rankings quite a bit throughout the preview. If you don't know what DVOA is, click here for an explanation.  

AFC West

The AFC is a phenomenally interesting division, and certainly one of the hardest to forecast for this season. It contains two playoff teams from last year, including the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. However, a lot has also changed in this division from a year ago, which I think will lead to a new division winner. Let's get to the rankings.

4. San Diego Chargers

2015 Record: 4-12

Offensive DVOA: 24th

Defensive DVOA: 28th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 7 wins: over -155 under +125

     The Chargers were one of the worst 5 teams in football last season, but things won't be as bad this season. For one thing, they almost certainly will be a healthier team than last year, simply out of regression to the mean. San Diego missed the 3rd most games to injury of any NFL team, barely behind only the Jaguars and Patriots. Moreover, many of their injuries were to important pieces; WR Keenan Allen missed half the season, as did starting offensive linemen King Dunlap, Orlando Franklin, and DJ Fluker. The result was a terrible running game that put far too much burden on Philip Rivers, who was missing his best weapons in the passing game. 

     If the offense can stay relatively healthy, I think they should be much better in 2016. Rivers is an incredibly talented QB, and with Allen back along with ageless wonder Antonio Gates and shifty receiving back Danny Woodhead, the passing game should be fine. It would really help the offense if they could get some kind of running game going, which will come down to the play of Melvin Gordon. Gordon was incredibly highly touted coming out of Wisconsin, but was a big disappointment as a rookie. Perhaps with a more consistent offensive line in front of him, Gordon will be able to find some running room. If he doesn't, the Chargers will once again be one dimensional. 

I feel you bro

     Even if the offense returns to the levels we're used to seeing from a Rivers led group, the Chargers will still have to find some answers on defense. Last year's edition wasn't very good to start with, and after a wave of injuries took starters off the field they offered less resistance than those "exercise bands" you see geriatric women using at the gym. In the offseason, the front office made some efforts to improve on D, but also lost their best defender when Eric Weddle signed with the Ravens in free agency. They signed Brandon Flowers to play corner opposite the talented young Jason Verrett, which should give the Chargers a capable pair on the outside. They also signed Brandon Mebane from Seattle and drafted Joey Bosa to secure things up front, which certainly will be better than the tissue paper they had last year. Unfortunately, this team is going to rely on Bosa to do a ton of different things well (especially rushing the passer), and he missed most of the preseason over a contract dispute. He will likely need some time to adjust to the NFL, and will have to do all of it on the fly in games that count. The Chargers were awful against the run last year (31st in the NFL), and I don't see any new linebackers or defensive tackles who make me think that will change. 

     In the end, I think the secondary here will be ok, but they will still struggle mightily to defend the run.  When you can't defend the run, even bad teams have a chance to beat you. The Chargers play in what might be the best division in football, and unless Rivers wins the MVP I can't see the Chargers getting to .500. I'm going with the under bet here because I think they will be right around 7-9 or 6-10, and the under has a better payoff. 

The Bet: Under

3. Denver Broncos

2015 Record: 12-4

Offensive DVOA: 8th

Defensive DVOA: 1st

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 9.5 over +130 under -160

Thank Christ we're done with this goober

     The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year with a historically good defense that went on an unbelievable hot streak, and an ancient game manager under center who has since retired (I hate Peyton Manning and his stupid commercials). They were utterly reliant on their defense to win games all season, which worked out thanks to quite a bit of luck. They went 9-3 in games decided by 7 points or less, the kind of games that are historically a coin flip. They had the point differential of a 10 win team. They overachieved in 2015, then got significantly worse in the offseason.

     The obvious place to start discussing what's different about the Broncos is at quarterback. Sheriff Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, probably on a horse branded with more logos than a NASCAR vehicle. Then Brock Osweiler walked in free agency, although considering the insane contract the Texans gave him I don't think you can blame GM John Elway for letting him go. However, that leaves Denver to choose from a group of retreads and low draft picks including Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian, John Shuna, and Paxton Lynch, a group so unimpressive I wouldn't blame you if you didn't know one of those four isn't a real person. According to media reports, the Broncos are going with Siemian to start the year, for whatever that's worth. Even with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to, expectations have to be pretty tempered for the offense. 

    So the offense isn't going to be very good, so what? It wasn't good last year, and now there's a Lombardi trophy getting stoned somewhere a mile above sea level. The thing is, the defense also lost some key pieces from last season. DL Malik Jackson was probably the best player in the Super Bowl, and he signed in Jacksonville. That's a major loss, as it not only hurts Denver's run defense, but also robs them of a dangerous interior rusher who could punish teams when they devoted extra resources to containing the outside rushing duo of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Denver also will be without linebacker Danny Trevathan, who got $24.5 million from the Bears this offseason. Trevathan was a huge part of Denver's success; he plays tough against the run, and is one of the top 3 cover linebackers in the NFL. The best thing about the Broncos defense last year was their versatility: they could defend against almost any personnel grouping and type of play without subbing, allowing coordinator Wade Phillips to get aggressive and creative. Without Jackson and Trevathan, it will be harder for them to do that.

    Don't get me wrong, Denver is still dangerous. Miller and Ware are still the best pass rush duo in the NFL, and Chris Harris is still the best slot corner in football. They will be very tough to score against, and will almost certainly still be a top 10 defense. They just won't be historically good. They won't have Peyton Manning's 17 leaf clover. They will have better competition. They won't win as many games. I like them for 9-7 and contention for a possible playoff birth, but the line is 9.5 so I'll take the extra half game. Plus, I really hate the Broncos. 

The Bet: Under

2. Oakland Raiders

2015 Record: 7-9

Offensive DVOA: 15th

Defensive DVOA: 14th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 8.5 over -135 under +105

Expect to see a lot of this in 2016

     The Raiders have come a long way in a short time thanks to the gorgeous rebuilding plan executed by GM Reggie McKenzie over the past 4 seasons. McKenzie inherited a roster utterly bereft of NFL talent and a poor stockpile of draft picks, and has managed to put together a very talented group.

     On offense, the Raiders struck gold in the second round of the 2014 draft with QB Derek Carr. Carr is entering his 3rd season as the starter, after making significant improvement from year 1 to year 2. If his progress continues, he is poised for a major breakout season in 2016. I see no reason why his numbers shouldn't be even better than last season, when he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 31 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. He has a true number 1 receiver in Amari Cooper, a prototypical outside star who should be even better in his sophomore season, when receivers often make a big leap. Carr also has a stud running back in Latavius Murray, who ran for over 1,000 yards last year while also catching 41 balls out of the backfield. Perhaps most importantly, Carr will be operating behind what should be an awesome offensive line. The Raiders acquired Kelechi Osemele in the offseason, adding the star guard to a group they've been developing for several years. With the interior spot shored up, the Raiders project to be above average at every place along the line, giving them the only group of blockers that can rival the collection in Dallas for the title of NFL's best. If Carr takes another step forward, this offense should be top 10 in football.

     The Raiders defense won't be as good as their offense, but it too should be better than it was a year ago. They still have Khalil Mack, a top five pass rusher who still possibly has a lot of room to improve because he is only 25. They added safety Reggie Nelson in free agency, a guy who NFL players ranked as the 60th best player at any position in 2015 (for whatever that's worth). Nelson is a ball hawk who led all safeties in interceptions last year with 8, but he can also play down in the box and contribute as a blitzer. He should give a massive boost to the Raiders secondary, which was a weakness last season. Oakland also signed outside linebacker Bruce Irvin from Seattle, a move that gives them a ton of versatility. While Irvin isn't a star defined by any one skill, he can do just about everything better than average. The Raiders will use him as a complementary pass rusher across from Mack, but he is just as capable as a cover man against tight ends and running backs. The combination of Mack and Irvin is nightmare fuel for opposing offensive coordinators.

     While the newcomers on defense will make the Raiders much better against the pass, their defense will be weak against the run. They still don't have anyone of note in the interior defensive line, and their interior linebackers are basically anonymous. While that vulnerability will certainly hurt them at times this season, I expect that the high flying offense will have them playing with the lead, which will limit opponents ability to rely on the run. While Oakland won't be contending to host a playoff game, I do expect them to make the postseason as the second wildcard in the AFC. I may be predicting their breakout a year early, as all of their key players are still very young, but even if they only make a modest improvement they should get to 9-7, which will be enough to win my bet.     

The Bet: Over

 1. Kansas City Chiefs

2015 Record: 11-5

Offensive DVOA: 5th

Defensive DVOA: 6th

2016 Win Total Over/Under: 9.5 over -140 under +110

Ohhhh yeah!

     The Chiefs are a trendy pick to make the Super Bowl, and it's not hard to see why. They were one of 4 teams to finish in the top 6 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and the other three (Carolina, Arizona and Seattle) all play in the NFC. They nearly beat the Patriots in Foxboro in the playoffs, and if they had won that game I'm confident that they would have beaten the Broncos and played in the Super Bowl.

 

     The Chiefs offense is solid, but incredibly conservative. Andy Reid almost never asks QB Alex Smith to throw deep, and even when he does ask Smith has shown an incredible hesitation to risk pushing the ball downfield. Instead, this group relies on the running game and quick passes to put together long drives, which all too frequently end in field goals. Last season showed how scheme-driven this offense is, as it actually got better results after Jamaal Charles torn his ACL. Other than getting their star running back healthy, I don't see much change in KC's offense, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for a group that finished 5h in offensive DVOA. The one hope for improvement in KC would be if fourth year tight end Travis Kelce finally realizes his potential. Kelce has shown flashes of baby-Gronk capability, with fantastic after the catch ability and even better celebrations. 2016 is probably Kelce's last chance to fulfill all the potential that people have been talking about, but if he does the Chiefs offense could be awesome. 

     On defense, Kansas City has stars at every level, making them one of the most talented teams in the league. Up front, the have massive nose tackle Dontari Poe, and they get a vicious pass rush from outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston in their 3-4 base. Cornerback Marcus Peters led the NFL in interceptions last season as a rookie, and should be one of the very best corners in football this year. Eric Berry is back to anchor the back end of the defense as a top end safety. This unit can compete with any offense, and can handle both passing and rushing attacks. 

   While the Chiefs are certainly a playoff caliber team, but I do have two concerns about them that make me hesitant to buy into their Super Bowl hype. The first and most important is the health of Justin Houston. The stud pass rusher had surgery on his ACL in February, and he will start the season on the PUP list, meaning he won't be eligible to play until week 8. Apparently, the team is still concerned about the possibility that Houston will miss the entire season, which would obviously be a devastating blow to the team's hopes. 

    My other concern is with the offense's inability to create big plays. Even with Charles in the lineup, they simply struggle to get down the field quickly. This means that they are not good at playing from behind, and have almost no chance to come back if they are down late. While this probably won't be an issue most of the time, it could be enough to kill the Chiefs season if it rears its head at the wrong time. Still, with a second place schedule and a roster loaded with talent, Kansas City shouldn't have trouble getting to 10 wins. 

The Bet: Over