NL All-Star Ballot

The MLB All-Star game will be held in San Diego on July 12 at 7 PM EST. Today is the deadline to vote for the teams, so I figured I would put together my ballot to give you a little guidance on who most deserves to be in the starting lineup for each league. While in most sports, the All-Star game doesn't matter beyond a quick (and deeply flawed) metric to measure a player's career achievements, in baseball the winning league gets home field advantage in the World Series, so the outcome of the game is actually very important. On to my picks. You can cast your own ballot by clicking on this link.

National League

First Base: Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs

     The number one thing you want in a first baseman is a guy who can hit for power, and that's exactly what the Cubs have in Rizzo. He has hit 19 bombs this season, tied for 4th in the NL and most among NL first basemen. His 58 RBI are tied for 3rd, and best among players at his position. He also leads his position in slugging% at .576, 44 points better than 2nd place Wil Meyers. Oh yeah, and Rizzo has an On-Base% of .407, which is outstanding and trails only league leader Paul Goldschidt (.428) among fisrt basemen. Goldschidmt, however, has struck out 79 times to Rizzo's 48. While Goldschidt and Meyers are both having excellent seasons, Rizzo has just flat out been better. This was an easy pick. 

Second Base: Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals

    When Murphy went on his incredible power surge during the playoffs last season, few people thought it was actually an indication of things to come. The Mets were so sure that his production was an aberration that they failed to match a 3 year, $37 million offer from their division rivals, a deal that looks like an absolute steal now. Murphy is hitting .352, which leads the league. He is best among 2B's in doubles (20), HR (14), RBI (53), Slugging % (.590), and Wins Above Replacement (2.7). He's been one of the best hitters in the game this season, and nobody is coming close to challenging his All-Star credentials at second base.

Shortstop: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

     This is a two-man race, with Seager and Colorado Rockies rookie Trevor Story. Trevor leads all SS with 19 HR on the season, and as a rookie sensation who came out of nowhere, might be the best *story* in baseball this year. However, Seager has been the better overall player. He has 17 HR, so he has almost matched Story's power, and has outproduced him in most other categories. Seager has the better average (.299 to .267), more doubles (20-18), a better On Base Percentage (.359-.334), and a better WAR (3.1-2.0). However, perhaps the most significant difference between the two is the amount they put the ball in play. Seager has struck out 60 times this season, which is around league average. Story has punched out 104 times, which is the most in the National League. Story has been fun, but Seager has been better. 

Third Base: Nolan Arenado

     There are a lot of viable choices here, and its probably the closest competition of any position in either league. The Cardinals Matt Carpenter has a .418 OBP, which is 2nd best in the league, and his OPS is a league-best 1.003. He's hitting .298 with 43 extra base hits, 14 of which are homers. Jake Lamb of the Arizona Diamondbacks is another valid choice; he has 17 HR and leads all NL 3B's with a .592 slugging%. However, for me this came down to two guys, Arenado and Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs, and the margin between the two is incredibly small. Both guys have 21 homers, tied for 2nd most in the league. They have identical On Base Percentages of .372. Both play excellent defense at the hot corner. Arenado has small leads in RBI (65-58), extra base hits (42-40), and WAR (3.8-3.7). However, where he really separates himself is with his batting average (.296-280), slugging% (.578-.560), and strikeouts (Bryant has struck out 77 times, Arenado just 41). Honestly, Carpenter probably has a better case than Bryant, although I place high enough value on home runs that hittin 50% more of them elevates your case by quite a bit. While I think Arenado is demonstrably having the best season, I won't be throwing any furniture if the large fanbases in Chicago or St. Louis get their guy into the game over the third baseman from small market Colorado. 

Catcher: Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals

     Wilson Ramos is an unusual case of a player breaking out at the age of 28, becoming a star virtually out of nowhere. His offensive numbers this year just don't look like those of a catcher, and he is leading all NL catchers in virtually every major category: batting average (.339), HR (12), RBI (43), OBP (.385), and Slugging% (.554). While he is barely above average defensively, offensive production like that from behind the plate will put you on the All-Star team every time. 

Outfield (Pick 3): Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies; Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins; Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

     This has been a weird season for NL outfielders, with several established stars having serious down years, especially by their standards (Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton come to mind). That opens the door for some lesser known guys to earn starting spots, and I went with three guys from smaller markets who I really enjoy watching play over rewarding Ryan Braun, who may be having a better season by some metrics but is also a total douchebag.  

     Carlos Gonzalez is one of the most talented players in baseball, yet between injury marred seasons and playing in Colorado, I feel like he isn't as big of a star as he should be. He is hitting .329, 2nd best among all NL outfielders, and is leading all NL outfielders in slugging at .584. He's hit 18 HR and has 51 RBI, so he has a wonderful blend of power and consistency that gives pitchers nightmares. He has lost some of his speed as he ages, which has turned him from an above average outfielder into one whose athleticism can no longer cover for his at-times suspect instincts. However, he isn't a major liability in the outfield, and his offensive production more than makes up for it. 

      Starling Marte is putting together an absolutely outstanding season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, toiling in the enormous shadows cast by the Cardinals and Cubs within the NL Central. Marte is batting .331, best among NL outfielders, and he has stolen 21 bases in a league where stealing is somewhat of a lost art. The threat he poses on the basepaths allows helps his teammates by distracting and unnerving opposing pitchers in a way that stats struggle to quantify but is obvious when you watch the game. His excellent speed also allows him to cover an amazing amount of ground in the outfield, where he makes some incredible catches that other outfielder's have no chance of making. If there's one thing in baseball more exciting than the home run, it's an incredible play in the outfield, and I want to watch Marte make them in San Diego. Marte may lack power at the plate, but his contributions in other facets of the game combine to give him a WAR of 3.3 this season, tops among NL outfielders.  

      Marcell Ozuna is one of the most underrated players in baseball today. That's understandable, considering that a) he plays in Florida, where baseball fandom is for some reason virtually nonexistent; and b) he plays in the same outfield as Christian Yelich and The Mighty Giancarlo Stanton, so whatever spotlight his team does get is usually directed at someone else. However, it's time for the world to start paying attention. The 25-year-old has broken out in a big way in his 4th MLB season, hitting .319 with a .564 slugging%, both in the top 5 among NL outfielders. He has hit 16 HR, most on his team, and he simply brings it every game. I'm not sure if his production is sustainable, but Ozuna is one of the biggest reasons the Marlins have surprised everybody by hanging in the playoff picture despite a massively slumping Giancarlo Stanton, and I think he should be rewarded for that.             

AL All-Star Ballot

The MLB All-Star game will be held in San Diego on July 12 at 7 PM EST. Today is the deadline to vote for the teams, so I figured I would put together my ballot to give you a little guidance on who most deserves to be in the starting lineup for each league. While in most sports, the All-Star game doesn't matter beyond a quick (and deeply flawed) metric to measure a player's career achievements, in baseball the winning league gets home field advantage in the World Series, so the outcome of the game is actually very important. On to my picks. You can cast your own ballot by clicking on this link.

American League

First Base: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

    Cabrera has been a mainstay on the team for 6 consecutive years, and he should be a shoe-in to make it 7 straight. He is one of the best hitters in the game, and is in the middle of another fantastic season. Among AL first basemen, he is 1st with 19 HR, 3rd with 51 RBI, 2nd in average at .301, and 1st in slugging percentage at .542. He has played in all 78 of the games Detroit has played. The only other contender here is Eric Hosmer, but he has hit 7 fewer bombs than Miggy and is slugging a full 50 points lower. It shouldn't be a contest, but Hosmer is backed by the insane Kansas City fan base which voted 8 Royals onto the team last year. 

Second Base: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

     This is a slightly tougher choice than 1B, but not by much. Altuve is hitting .357, leading the league by 15 points over Xander Bogaerts. He has 111 hits, which leads the league. He has 21 stolen bases, leading the league. He plays incredible defense, with outstanding range and only 3 errors on the season. Oh yeah, and he also hits for power, with 13 bombs and a slugging percentage of .572, 4th best in the AL. The only other plausible choice is Robinson Cano of the Mariners, who has 19 HR and more RBI's than Altuve, but his overall production is simply not close. Altuve should start for the 3rd straight season.

Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

     This is another extremely easy call. Bogaerts is hitting .342, 2nd in the AL and 36 points better than the second-best SS, Francisco Lindor of the Indians. He leads AL SS with 50 RBI, and he had a 26 game hit streak at one point this season. He also has a freaking awesome name, and I love him.

Third Base: Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

     This is the first choice I had to think about for more than 5 seconds, but in the end it was still a clear choice for me. Machado has a legitimate claim to be the best player in all of baseball, and even my hate for all things Baltimore won't keep him off my ballot. He is hitting .338, leading all AL 3B's. He has 18 HR, which is 2nd at his position only to Todd Frazier, who has hit 22 bombs but is batting a meager .202. Machado is slugging .611, 2nd in the AL only to the Large Father David Ortiz, and Manny is leading the AL in total bases with a ridiculous 182. He is 1 of only 4 players in baseball with an OPS (on base% plus slugging%) above 1.000. Plus, Machado plays absolutely outstanding defense; he won the Gold Glove last year, and probably will win again this season. The only guy who can compete with him is last season's MVP, Josh Donaldson, who has 18 bombs, 52 RBI, and leads the league in walks, but he is hitting "only" .293 and his slugging% is a full 40 points lower than Machado's. Im going with the Oriole, as much as it pains me.

Catcher: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals 

     Perez is another mainstay on this team, having made it each of the past 3 seasons. He is an absolute workhorse, having caught and insane 68 of KC's 77 games, and he is the rare catcher who contributes both offensively and defensively. He has 3 consecutive Gold Glove awards, and has thrown out an outrageous, Ivan Rodriguez-esque 54% of runners who try to steal on him this year. He is hitting .294 with 12 HR and a .512 Slugging%, all of which lead AL catchers. Basically, he is the best fielder at his position, and the best hitter at his position. There's nobody else who is even close to his level in the American League.

DH: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox

     If you ask me if David Ortiz should start for the AL, I will answer faster than if you ask me if I want to have sex with Margot Roby. The answer is yes. Ortiz is completely redefining what is possible at the age of 40, and is having a career year despite achy feet that make him basically immobile. He is batting .336, with 18 HR and 63 RBI (2rd in AL). He is slugging .672, which is 61 points better than Manny Machado, who is 2nd in MLB. The gap between Ortiz and Machado is larger than the gap between Machado and Trevor Story, who is 23rd in slugging. Oh yeah, and Ortiz has hit 31 doubles, which puts him on pace for 64, which would be the second most ever. I'd say he's an All-Star. 

     The only other possible choice here is Edwin Encarnacion of the Toronto Blue Jays, who has 21 HR and leads the league with 70 RBI. It's a shame for him that he is listed on the ballot only as a DH, as he would probably have been my pick as at first. Despite his excellent power numbers, his overall production/awesomeness fails well short of Ortiz. 

Outfield (Pick 3): Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers; Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles

     This was the only difficult choice on the AL ballot, and boy was it a tough one. In the end, I left off Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr., which is causing me quite a bit of self-loathing right now. But honestly, there just wasn't a spot for either of them. Mark Trumbo leads the AL in HR with 23, and is 3rd in RBI (60) and 7th in slugging% (.562). He is a top 3 power hitter in the league this season, and ladies love the long ball. He needs to be on the team, even if his poor defense drives his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) down to 1.4. 

     Mike Trout is the Golden Boy of baseball, and has finished in the top 2 in MVP voting for the last 4 years in a row. He having another outstanding season, hitting .322 with 17 HR, 50 RBI, and a .574 slugging%. He has 11 stolen bases and plays excellent defense in centerfield, even if his fielding numbers have dropped a bit this season. Trout simply does it all, as his league leading 4.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) indicates. He is the face of baseball, and no All-Star team would be complete without him. 

     My final selection is Ian Desmond, probably the toughest to justify picking over my boy Mook. The argument for Betts is that he is a do it all player: he has a .287 average, 16 HR and 54 RBI out of the leadoff spot, 12 stolen bases, and a league leading 67 runs scored. He also plays outstanding defense in right field, and his production in every facet of the game have led to him wracking up a WAR of 3.0. He's certainly a worthy choice for the All-Star team. Unfortunately, the same arguments apply slightly better to Desmond. Ian is hitting .322, significantly better than Betts. He has 14 HR and 51 RBI, so he's providing almost as much power. What's more, Desmond is outslugging Betts .528 to .501. Desmond has 14 stolen bases, and 59 runs scored, so his baserunning is just as good. Desmond also plays an excellent outfield, and has a WAR of 3.4. I absolutely hate to do it, but I have to leave Betts out of my starting 9. It's ok though, Betts is only 23. There will be plenty more chances for me to vote for him.  

 

State of Red Sox Nation

     The Sox just lost two of three to the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that had lost its previous 11 games. Tampa blew out Boston in game 1 and shut them out in game 3, with a Sox laugher sandwiched in the middle. All in all a pretty unsatisfying series, capping off an utterly disappointing month. The Red Sox finish June with a record of 10-16, which is not good. Not good at all. On June 1, Boston had a 2 game lead in the AL East. They now trail the Orioles by 5.5 games; a 7.5 game turnaround in a month is downright awful, and the Sox need to get things going before this deficit balloons out of control.
     So what's been going wrong? The obvious answer is the pitching, particularly the starters. Steven Wright has been a wonderful surprise, leading the AL in ERA for most of the year. Rick Porcello has been solid and remarkably consistent, which is more than a lot of people expected from him. David Price has been good for the most part, although he has certainly not been the ace that Boston paid a king's ransom for in the offseason. While I still want more from the top spot in the rotation,  for the season the Sox are 29-19 in games started by Price, Wright and Porcello. The problem is the back end of the rotation, where Boston is just 13-17. With the best offense in baseball, even halfway decent pitching will get you better results than that. Eduardo Rodriguez has been particularly disappointing; before his injury, all the reports coming out of spring training were raving that the 23 year old had figured things out and was primed for a major jump. He's healthy now, but we certainly aren't seeing any improvement in his performances. If anything, he has taken steps backwards this season; in his most recent start in Tampa, he got absolutely LIT UP, and it's not the first time.
    So what can the Sox do about it? Well, this is where things get tricky. I certainly don't want to give up on Rodriguez, given the potential he has displayed at such a young age. The only way he is going to figure things out is by getting game action at the major league level, but it's tough to keep putting him out there if he's getting shelled and you have playoff aspirations. Clay Buccholz is another story: the guy is a bum, plain and simple. The only way he will stop giving up home runs and crooked numbers is if he gets hurt, and I would love to see him replaced in the rotation. Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of options within the Sox organization to step up. The top three starters in Pawtucket are Roenis Elias, Sean O'Sullivan, and Henry Owens, all of whom we have seen this year and none of whom have been impressive. Of the three, Owens probably has the best potential, but with an astounding 49 walks in 70 innings in Triple-A, it's clear that he does not yet have the command to pitch in the majors. One other potential option is Aaron Wilkerson, a 27-year-old righty who has a 2.20 ERA in 7 Triple-A starts this year. While he doesn't project as anything more than a #5 starter in the majors, it's probably time to give him a shot and see what he can do. He's not going to develop much more in the minors at his age, and he can hardly be worse than the slop the Sox have been trotting out there so far. Realistically though, for the Sox to really improve their pitching, they are going to need to look outside of the organization.
      Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski has a proven track record of aggression, not hesitating to go out and get the players he needs to improve his rosters. While in charge of the TIgers, he made a number of significant mid-season moves, acquiring players like Jeremy Bonderman, Placido Polanco, Jhonny Peralta, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, and, of course, David Price. So, we have a GM ready and willing to pull the trigger on a trade if the return is right. Furthermore, while the Sox are light on minor league pitching prospects, they are fully stocked with position players in the minors who could be appealing trade chips, and they clearly have the funds to take on salary. The question is, who is possibly available?
     My dream target would be Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves; the 25 year old is an established ace, and the Braves are absolutely terrible, the definition of a rebuilding team with no potential to contend for at least several more years. Unfortunately, they have Teheran signed through 2020, and view him as the centerpiece of their rebuild. It would probably take a package of prospects and at least one of Betts, Bogaerts or Bradley to even get their attention, and those guys are simply untouchable. I'd definitely make the call, but I don't expect any traction here.
    Another option is Sonny Gray, the young ace of the Oakland Athletics drafted out of Vanderbilt University (what up). Gray is just 26, but is already in his 3rd full season in the majors and finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting last year. He has thrown a perfect game. He is a proven star, even though he has struggled his way to a 5.54 ERA this year. However, his struggles may drive the price down, and Oakland is a prime target to trade with. The A's are a small market team that is strapped for cash, and continually struggles to retain their stars. Gray is eligible for arbitration next year, meaning that Billy Beane will have to give him a substantial raise, trade him or lose him for nothing. This is probably the guy that Dombrowski should be focusing on, as he could help in both the short- and long-term, and may be available for a more reasonable package of prospects.
    There are other lesser arms that may become available near the trade deadline, and the Sox should not have a stud or bust attitude. They need help now, and even decent starters would be a big improvement that could push the team into the playoffs. Dombrowski could consider Rich Hill, even though he is 36 and a free agent at the end of the season. He could go after Andrew Cashner, the Padres starter who is solid when healthy. He could look at Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, although Tampa would likely be reticent to send him to a team within the division. One thing has become crystal clear though: the Red Sox need to get somebody if they want to be serious contenders this season.

Red Sox go to Tampa

Venue: Tropicana Field, Tamp Bay

Opponent: Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 31-43, last place in AL East 13.5 back of Baltimore

Recent Results: 11 straight loses, just got swept in 4 games by the Orioles

Run Differential: -39, 2nd worst in AL

Team ERA: 4.37, 11th in AL 

Runs Per Game: 3.98, worst in AL

The Red Sox go from playing the hottest team in the league in Texas to the absolute coldest in Tampa Bay, and they really need to get good results to turn things around. Boston is 9-14 for the month of June, and have fallen to 4.0 games back of the Orioles, who simply refuse to lose. When you play the bottom feeders of the league, you simply have to wrack up wins. Let's see if Boston can take advantage of this opportunity to close the month out strong.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Monday, 7:10 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Blake Snell

     E-Rod has had a tough time getting going this season. He started on the DL, and in five starts since returning he has only been able to complete six innings twice and has kept the opposition under 3 runs only once. He has also given up 7 homers, with at least one in each of his last four starts. He did strike out 7 batters in his last outing against Chicago, a season high, so that's an indication that he may be turning things around. We'll see if he can continue to make strides forward against a bad offense.

     Blake Snell was a first round pick for Tampa Bay back in 2011, and made his Major League debut in late April of this year. He has only made 3 starts to this point, but is coming off the best outing of his young career (6.2 IP, 3 runs vs Cleveland). Snell is a a talented lefty, but is still raw at the age of 23. He has a plus fastball, which averages 94 MPH and is the basis for his entire arsenal. He takes about 10 MPH off of his fastball for his changeup, which is a Major League level velocity difference. In terms of breaking balls, he uses his curveball the most, which is a classic slow, 12-6 curve at 75 MPH. He also features a slider, although he hasn't displayed much confidence in it thus far, as he has only thrown it 23 times in the big leagues. This game seems like a toss up to me, and will come down to which 23-year-old lefty has his best stuff.  

Game 2 (Tuesday, 7:10 EST): Rick Porcello vs. Chris Archer

     Rick Porcello has pretty much established who he is at this point. You can basically pencil him in for 6-7 innings with 3-4 runs allowed, which is enough to at least keep the Sox in the game. With this awesome of an offense, Porcello's consistency is a welcome sight, and I like Boston's chances whenever he is in the game.

     Chris Archer is the nominal ace of this Rays team, and has been on the verge of breaking out as a truly dominating pitcher since his debut in 2013. This season, he has been struggling a bit, with a 4.70 ERA in 16 starts. However, he is still striking batters out at an elite rate, averaging over 10 K's per 9 innings pitched. His 108 total Ks is 3rd in the American League, just 2 behind league leader David Price. Archer has gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 6 starts, but has also allowed at least 3 runs in all of those games. He is a 3 pitch pitcher, with absolute gas. His fastball is 94-98 MPH, with sink when it is going well. He also throws a changeup and a slider, which he uses as his primary strikeout pitch. However, he has a tendency to leave his slider hanging when things aren't going well for him, and hopefully the Red Sox can get ahold of a couple of his mistakes.  

Game 3 (Wednesday, 12:10 EST): David Price vs. Matt Moore

     David Price is looking to recover from his absolute disaster in Texas, when he gave up 6 runs while recording only 7 outs. Prior to that outing, Price had been on a string of dominant starts, and he is the league leader in strikeouts. While I do expect the Red Sox ace to return to form in this one, there were concerning signs from his last start. He seemed to go back to the low hand position and low leg kick that plagued him in the beginning of the season, and as a result his velocity was down and his location was up. If his motion is not corrected for this start, his results won't be corrected either. 

     Matt Moore burst onto the scene with excellent seasons in both 2012 and 2013, but then he missed all of 2014 and most of 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He hasn't been the same pitcher since rehabbing, with an ERA north of 5.00 in 27 starts since the injury. He has lost a couple MPH off of his fastball, and now has to rely more on his location and offspeed stuff to get hitters out. His most interesting pitch is his knuckle-curve, which is a pitch with both lateral and vertical movement with a velocity in the low 80s. He will have to walk a thin line against this Boston offense, and I expect the Red Sox to get to him without too much trouble. 

Prediction: Red Sox win at least two out of three.  

Red Sox Have Decidedly Mixed Results in Texas

The Red Sox lost two of three games in their series against the Rangers, but in all honesty they should have been swept. While it may be unrealistic to expect to win a series in their ballpark, especially given that the Rangers are the hottest team in the league right now, I would have liked Boston to be a bit more competitive.
   
     Game 1 was the only Sox win of the series, and it frankly has to be counted as a miracle victory. David Price had his worst start of the season and one of the worst of his career. Sin Soo Choo led of the game with a home run for Texas, and it went downhill from there. Price simply couldn't keep any of his pitches down, and the Rangers jumped all over him for 6 runs on 12 hits in just 2.1 innings. Honestly, it could have been even worse; Prince Fielder hit into a double play with the bases loaded in the first, enabling Price to limit the damage. However, down 6-0 in the 4th inning is not a place you want to be as a team, and most teams would roll over at that point. Not the Sox though. The first thing that enabled their comeback was great work out of the bullpen. Matt Barnes (2.2 IP), Tommy Layne (2 IP), Heath Hembree (1 IP) ad Koji Uehara (1 IP) kept the Rangers to just a single run once Price was gone, giving the Sox potent offense a chance to get back in the game.
     Facing a big deficit, the only thing to do is chip away, and Boston did that through a pair of 2 run homers, one from Hanley Ramirez (who is really starting to heat up) and Jackie Bradley Jr. JBJ's was an absolute moonshot, getting into the upper deck in right center field. Jerry Remy talked a lot about the infamous jetstream that goes out to that part of the ballpark in Texas, and Bradley took advantage. Still, entering the 9th, Boston trailed 7-4, and the score was the same with 2 men out. Texas at that point had a win probability of 99.2%, but don't tell Sandy Leon that. Coming on as a pinch hitter, he put on the best at-bat of the game by far, fouling off several tough pitches before roping a double to left. That extended the game to Mookie Betts, who did this. The Sox would go on to take the lead on a wild pitch with David Ortiz at the plate, and Uehara struck out the side in the bottom half to complete the stunning comeback. Final score: Boston 8, Texas 7
     Coming off of back-to-back wild wins, Boston had a ton of momentum going into Game 2. Unfortunately, they simply didn't play well in this one. Humid conditions are usually tough on knuckleball pitchers, and Steven Wright didn't have his best day. He gave up 3 runs in the 4th inning, but the wheels came off in the 5th. Bogaerts started the inning with an error, allowing Choo to reach. He was at 3rd with two outs when Adrian Beltre singled him in. After a Fielder single, Hanley Ramirez booted a grounder at 1st to load the bases. Wright struggled all night to throw strikes with his knuckler, and so with the count at 3-2 to Elvis Andrus, he had to throw a fastball to avoid the risk of walking in another run. Andrus jumped all over it, smashing it for a three run triple. All five of the runs the Rangers scored in the inning were unearned, but Wright simply had a tough night. Down by 6 runs for the second consecutive night, Boston couldn't rally this time and lost by a score of 10-3.
     Game 3 featured another dose of Clay Buccholz, and his start was pretty typical of his season to this point. He has struggled all year with falling victim to One Bad Inning, often involving a multi-run homer. This time, he struggled right out of the gate, giving up 5 singles and a walk to the first 6 Ranger hitters. While Buccholz did get a double play to escape true disaster, he still gave up 3 runs and put the Sox behind the 8 ball for the 3rd consecutive game. Buccholz would settle down after that, but he gave up a lazer beam of a home run to Prince Fielder in the 6th, which chased him from the ballgame. He pitched 4 solid innings, but gave up 5 runs and didn't put the Sox in position to win the game. Classic fuckholz. Final Score: Texas 6, Boston 2

Up next is a three game set with the Rays in Tampa, so the Sox have a good chance to get out of the rut they have been in for all of June.

Red Sox Travel to Texas

Venue: Ballpark at Arlington

Opponent: Texas Rangers

Record: 47-26, 1st place in AL West and best record in the American League

Recent Results: 16-5 in June, beating everyone right now

Run Differential: +39, 4th in AL

Team ERA: 3.96, 5th in AL 

Runs Per Game: 4.77, 6th in AL

Players to Watch:

OF Ian Desmond joined the Rangers from the Washington Nationals in the offseason, switching leagues and moving to the outfield in the process. He has been loving the AL so far, leading the Rangers with a .316 average while playing in 72 of the Rangers 73 games. He has also tacked on 12 HR, 47 RBI, and 12 steals, so he is really doing it all in his new digs.

2B Rougned Odor is basically the Rangers version of Dustin Pedroia, a scrappy middle infielder who hustles his ass off and contributes in all kinds of ways. He is hitting .291 over the last month, and leads the Rangers with 13 HR on the season. However, I mostly included Odor for two reasons: first, because he punched the shit out of Jose Bautista earlier this year, and secondly, because Rougned Odor has a younger brother in the Rangers minor league system, who is named.... Rougned Odor. Yes you read that right. 

3B Adrian Beltre has been in the majors since 1998, when he was 19 years old, and he is a borderline Hall of Famer. Red Sox fans will remember his brief stint in Boston, when he made the All Star team and led the league in doubles in 2010. His offensive production has been dwindling over the last three seasons as he enters his late 30s, but he is still a power threat (10 HR on the year) and an excellent defender at the hot corner. My favorite thing about him though is that he famously HATES it when people touch his head. I am 99% sure Hanley Ramirez is going to fuck with him if he makes it to first base this series, and I cannot wait. 

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Friday, 8:10 EST): David Price vs. Nick Martinez

     David Price looks to continue his string of strong performances in this one. He has pitched at least into the seventh inning in every start since May 7th, and has not given up more than 3 runs in any of those games. He has run into a string of bad luck in June, losing 3 of 4 starts despite pitching well. Last time out, he dominated the Seattle Mariners, giving up just 1 run in 8 innings while strinking out 7 against a very good offense. 

     Nick Martinez is making just his second start of the season, looking to improve on a 4.1 IP, 3 ER effort last time out against the Cardinals. Normally, this would be Yu Darvish's spot in the rotation, so the Sox definitely caught a break facing Martinez instead. Nick does have some experience, having been a part of the Rangers rotation for good chunks of both 2014 and 2015, but a 4.30 career ERA says that he is nothing special. He throws 5 pitches (fastball, two-seam, slider, curve, changeup) but none of them are great. He has average velocity on his fastballs (91MPH), and mixes the velocities of his offspeed offerings effectively, but he will need to rely on location to get the Red Sox out. I think Boston wins this one easily. 

Game 2 (Saturday, 9:20 EST): Steven Wright vs. AJ Griffin

    Steven Wright looks to continue his dominance of the American League in this late night game. He has been a delightful surprise all season long, and now that Christian Vasquez has proven his ability to actually get a glove on the knuckleball, the opposition's chances to score via the passed ball have been dramatically reduced. While Wright still overwhelmingly relies on his knuckler, he has been using his fastball more often in his last couple starts, particularly when his behind in the count. We'll see if he can continue getting away with that, or if the Rangers can jump on a couple batting practice straight pitches.

     AJ Griffin is making his first start off the Disabled List in this game, where he has been shelved since leaving the mound with shoulder soreness in the 3rd inning of a game on May 7th. He has pitched very well when healthy this year, with a 2.94 ERA, but its tough to know what to expect from a guy with that vague of an injury in his pitching arm. If he is healthy, expect to see a guy with mediocre velocity but excellent control and funky offspeed stuff. Though he only throws around 88 MPH, he is still effective. His slider can be devastating at times, and he uses a very funky curveball that averages only 66 MPH (!), which is unlike just about any other pitch in the game today. He could be problematic for the Sox, but I am confident that Wright will get the better of him in another Red Sox win.  

Game 3 (Sunday, 3:05 EST): Clay Buccholz vs. Martin Perez

     Clay Buccholz did enough in his start against the White Sox to earn another turn in the rotation, although I am not at all confident in his production moving forwards. He went just 5 innings against Chicago, while allowing 3 runs and 2 HR. The long ball has been his biggest issue this season, and TExas has hit 90 of them in 73 games so far. If he can keep Boston in the game, I will be happy, but Id honestly rather see someone else in this spot. Im not sure who that might be, but I know what Im getting from Clay at this point and I don't like it.
     Martin Perez has been a solid if unspectacular performer for the Rangers since joining the rotation full time this season. He has gotten an occasional start here or there since 2012, but this is the first time he has been a constant presence in the rotation. He has a 3.57 ERA this year, and Texas has won each of the last 6 games he has started. He features above average velocity, averaging 93 MPH with the fastball. In terms of offspeed stuff, he has the most confidence in his changeup, which has decent downward action and takes about 10 MPH off of his fastball. He also has a curveball and a slider, but he mostly uses them when he is ahead in the count, and if the Sox are seeing a lot of them then they are probably not hitting Perez very well. This game is a bit of a toss up, so Im going to have to go with the red hot home team, and give the Rangers the nod here.  

Red Sox Walk Off to Avoid Devastating Sweep

     The Red Sox walked off in the 10th inning yesterday thanks to Xander Bogaerts' 10th inning single, capping off a wild game that neither team seemed to want to win. Rick Porcello didn't have his best stuff early, giving up 2 runs in the first, but was able to battle his way into the 6th. Chicago really tried to give the game away in the 6th, when they allowed the Red Sox to score 4 times while only getting the ball out of the infield once, but Boston was determined not to blow the game open. In fact, Boston handed the lead right back in the next inning when Junichi Tazawa grooved a meatball to Jose Abreu, who deposited it in the centerfield bleachers for a three run bomb. Boston clawed back with a run in the 7th, but could easily have blown the game again with a puzzling decision. With one out and men on first and third, Jackie Bradley Jr. tried to drive in the tying run... with a bunt. Not only was this a terrible idea, but he popped it up, giving the Sox absolutely no chance to score on the play. Terrible decision, terrible execution. I'd be happy if this offense never bunted again. Luckily for JBJ, The Red Sox offense was not to be denied, and tied the game in the 8th inning when Dustin Pedroia ripped a two out RBI single into left field. Boston put two men on with nobody out in the bottom of the 9th, and appeared destined for a walk off victory, but for the second time in the series failed to drive the winner home. In the 10th, it appeared as though that failure would cost them the game, as Craig Kimbrel loaded the bases with nobody out. However, the closer wriggled his way out of the jam by inducing an infield pop up and delivering back to back Ks, setting the stage for the XMan's heroics. While it was great to win this one though, this series as a whole was still collosally frustrating for the Red Sox.
      I covered game 1 the other day, but it deserves a quick recap because I still can't believe the Sox lost. Steven Wright threw a COMPLETE GAME and allowed 1 RUN, and Boston had the BASES LOADED WITH NOBODY OUT in the 9th and couldn't win it. Infuriating. Game 2 basically boiled down to Chris Sale dominating, but it's still frustrating to lose when Clay Buccholz pitches a solid game. Game 3 was another brutal loss, as Boston took a 6-4 lead into the 8th inning. Sadly, Koji Uehara melted down, giving up home runs to Melky Cabrera and Brett Lawrie while only recording 2 outs. Chicago tacked on another run in the 9th to seal the victory, 8-6. Games like this are where the Red Sox really miss Carson Smith, Destroyer of Right-handed Hitters, who is out for the year. Smith was a big part of their bullpen plans as the asian duo ages, and the Sox may need to find another option in the setup role. At 41 years old, Uehara is finally showing his age, with a 4.78 ERA. He has been absolutely fantastic for Boston, but the Sox may need to think about giving a guy like Heath Hembree or Robbie Ross a bigger role.  

Other News and Notes

-Sandy Leon is absolutely on fire since being called up. He is now 11-21 on the season, and he has been rolbbed of at least two hits by excellent fielding. While I don't expect hits to continue, it's always nice to get some production from the catcher spot, and John Farrell would be wise to ride Leon's hot bat for as long as it lasts.
-Dustin Pedroia game into game 4 with 1 hit in his last 15 at bats, but hit 3 line drives in 4 at bats ysterday. Let's hope his slump is history
-Hanley Ramirez has been in a massive slump, but continues to show signs of turning things around. He had two hits yesterday and homered again on Wednesday, so it seems that being dropped to 7th in the batting order has taken some pressure off of him and allowed him to concentrate on getting his stroke right.
-Xander Bogaerts continues to be an absolute stud. With two hits yesterday, he raised his average to .351, best in all of baseball. I still think he is due for a regression, but I am happy to be wrong.
-Steven Wright dropped his ERA to 2.01, best in the AL. Dennis Eckersley said on the NESN broadcast that he is "a pitcher who throws a knuckleball" rather than just a knuckleballer, and he has a point. Wright throws several varieties of knuckleball, changing up speed and grip, but on Monday he was using his fastball more than I've ever seen. He was hitting 88MPH on the gun, which is terrible by MLB standards but must look like 100 to hitters who are used to the 70 MPH knuckler.
-Clay Buccholz was decent in his first start back in the rotation, but he did give up 2 more HR. He was lucky that they happened with nobody on base instead of ruining his outing.
-David Ortiz has been sitting out some games recently to rest his aching feet, but it hasnt affected his swing at all. He pinch hit in the 9th yesterday, and with the entire crowd chanting for a walk of homer, he drilled a double down the right field line that missed the seats by about 5 feet. The dude is simply a legend.

Tonight's incredibly frustrating loss shows why Wins is a useless statistic for evaluating pitchers

     The Red Sox lost 3-1 in 10 innings, and this may have been the most frustrating game of the season so far. Steven Wright pitched a absolute gem, going 9 innings and giving up just 1 run on 5 hits. By any measure, that is a fantastic outing and thoroughly deserving of a "win". Unfortunately for Steven, the Sox offense could not produce more than 1 run themselves, despite having what can only be described as a GOLDEN chance to win this one in the 9th. The Red Sox loaded the bases with NOBODY OUT, and sent Dustin Pedroia to bat as a pinch hitter. He struck out, followed by a Christian Vasquez grounder producing a force out at home, then a strikeout from pinch hitter Ryan LaMarre. Craig Kimbrel has been brilliant this year, but of course he allowed two runs against the anemic White Sox offense, and Boston couldn't muster a response with the top of the order.
     You really can't ask any more of a pitcher than what the Sox got from Steven Wright, but he will still leave with just a No Decision, proving once agains how useless pitcher record is as a statistic. I can't believe people used that as the main decider on awards like the Cy Young up until about five years ago. Furthermore, when the White Sox have Chris Sale and Jose Quintana going the next two days, this is a game the Red Sox really needed to have, and they blew it. Fuck.

White Sox Preview

The Red Sox welcome the White Sox to town for the final series these teams will play this season. Boston took two of three in Chicago in May, and the White Sox have been in a tailspin ever since. Lets get to it.


Venue: Fenway Park

Opponent: Chicago White Sox

Record: 33-36, 4th place and 5.5 games behind the Indians in the AL Central

Recent Results: 3-9; Swept by Indians, lost two of three to Tigers, two of three to Royals, two of three to Nationals

Run Differential: -16, 10th in AL

Team ERA: 4.02, 7th in AL 

Runs Scored: 279, 12th in AL

Players to Watch:

A) 1B Jose Abreu burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2014, winning the Rookie of the Year Award after smashing 36 homers. He got off to a horrible start to this season, but has rebounded nicely over the last month, hitting .301 with 4 home runs. He now has 10 on the season, and is the White Sox best all-around hitter. 

B) CF Adam Eaton is a tremendous all around player. He is one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball; his speed and athleticism enable him to cover a ton of ground and make spectacular catches, and he has an absolute cannon attached to his left shoulder. He is no slouch at the plate either, batting .283 at the top of the White Sox lineup. Given how badly the team has been struggling to score recently, Chicago will need him to be creating scoring chances in this series. 

 C) 3B Todd Frazier joined the White Sox in the offseason, coming off of back to back appearances on the National League All-Star team. He has blasted 19 home runs this season, which is tied for 2nd most in the American League (1 behind leader Mark Trumbo of the Orioles). However, Frazier has been a boom or bust hitter this season, as his batting average is a miserable .197. He has been mired in a horrible slump, batting just .108 over his last 20 games. If the White Sox are going to turn things around, they will need Frazier to produce more consistently. 

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Monday, 7:10 EST): Steven Wright vs. Miguel Gonzalez 

     Steven Wright has wildly outperformed all expectations and projections this season, exploding into a top of the line starter out of absolutely nowhere. He has mastered the art of the knuckleball, and is doing a really nice job of changing speeds with the pitch; he can throw it anywhere from 64-78 MPH, which is basically unfair. Willie Stargell once described hitting a knuckler as "like trying to drink coffee with a fork", and it's even harder when you have to worry about timing it as well as tracking its movement. Wright is currently leading all American League pitchers with a 2.22 ERA, and has thrown at least 7 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. 

     Gonzalez has made just 8 starts on the season after missing the month of April with an injury. He has compiled a 4.74 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 44 innings, making him an average to below average fifth starter. At 32 years old, he is probably not going to develop any further, and is more or less a replacement level starter. His fastball averages right around 92 MPH according to Fangraphs Pitch FX tool, and he can throw both four and two seam fastballs. He also features a changeup, slider and curveball, although opponents have been feasting off of his breaking pitches. Opponents are batting .308 against his slider, and a gruesome .455 off his curveball. He has been able to limit opponents to a .209 average with his changeup, which he likes to throw down and in to right handed batters to induce groundouts. If he doesn't bring his A game, I expect the Sox offense to knock him around, leading to a Red Sox victory. 

Game 2 (Tuesday, 7:10 EST): Clay Buccholz vs. Chris Sale

     The Red Sox tried to get Clay Suckholz out of their rotation, demoting him to the bullpen on May 26th. Unfortunately, all of the guys they have handed starts to in his place (Joe Kelly, Roenis Elias, Henry Owens) have been dreadful, so here we are again. While I am obviously not excited about seeing back in the rotation, there are some reasons to be hopeful about this start. Buccholz has been decent out of the bullpen, keeping the opponent off the scoreboard in 4 of his 5 appearances. Furthermore, the White Sox offense is very bad, and Clay had maybe his best start of the season when he faced them back on May 4th, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings of work. In order to repeat that success, I think having his changeup working early will be the key. If he can throw that pitch for strikes and keep it down in the zone, he might be able to avoid the One Big Inning that has plagued him for years. 

     Sadly for Buccholz, even if he pitches well it might not be enough, because he is going against Chris Sale, the White Sox ace and one of the best left-handed starters in all of baseball. Sale is 11-2 with a 2.94 ERA this season, and has struck out 93 batters in 98 innings, 6th most in the American League. Sale uses a deceptive delivery, slinging the ball from a three-quarters arm slot that is especially tough for left-handed batters to pick up on. Sale is a three pitch pitcher, but all three are deadly. His fastball averages 93 MPH with movement, and he can reach back to hit 98 when he needs to. He has such good velocity that his change-up goes 88-90 MPH and still fools hitters. However, his best pitch is easily his slider, which has late, sharp break that is just filthy nasty. He frequently embarrasses hitters with it, like in this video clip where we can see Mark Trumbo strike out on a pitch that hits him in the knee.  Given the pitchers in this game, I'd be surprised if it doesn't end in a White Sox win.

Game 3 (Wednesday, 7:10 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs. jose Quintana

     I was very excited for Rodriguez to rejoin the rotation after missing the first couple months with an injury, but he has not been good at all. In 4 starts, he has a dreadful ERA of 6.97, and hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in either of his last two. He has really struggled with controlling his changeup and slider, and as a result has been pitching from behind in the count and relying on his fastball almost exclusively. He has also been struggling with tipping his pitches, the same problem that was supposed to have been fixed in the offseason; his motion looks completely different when he throws a fastball vs when throws any other pitch. Its tough to get hitters out when they know exactly what's coming, but pitching coach Carl Willis says that Rodriguez is going to be "a completely different pitcher next time out", so we'll see what they've been worked on.

     Quintana is another dominant lefty at the top of the White Sox rotation, and he showed why when he faced Boston back in May, giving up just a single run on four hits over 8 inning. Like Sale, Quintana has mid-90s velocity on his fastball, and can throw it straight or with a bit of movement in towards righties. He also uses a nasty curveball to pick up strikeouts, which has both vertical and horizontal movement. At just 77 MPH, it also keeps hitters off balance with dramatic velocity difference compared to his fastball. Given that the Red Sox lineup is worse against lefties, this is another tough matchup for Boston. Unless Rodriguez can get it together, the White Sox will probably win. 

Game 4 (Thursday, 1:35 EST): Rick Porcello vs James Shields

     Rick Porcello has been a solid, if unspectacular, innings eating pitcher for most of this season. He has been pitching very well in his last three starts, going at least six innings while allowing 3 earned runs or less each time out. In his last start, he shut down the potent Mariners lineup, giving up 2 runs while striking out 6 in 6 innings. I think he will have no problem keeping this White Sox group in check.

     Opposing Porcello will be James Shields, who was acquired by the White Sox from the San Diego Padres at the beginning of June. Shields gained notoriety as a borderline ace for the Rays and Royals at the beginning of this decade. However, this season he has been downright awful, posting a 6.28 ERA in 14 starts. Things have gotten even worse since he changed leagues, as he has failed to make it out of the third inning in three of his past four starts, while giving up at least 6 runs in all four. I will be downright shocked if the Sox don't knock this bum around, leading to a comfortable win for the home team.    

Red Sox-Mariners Preview

Little bit of a different format this week. Im condensing the relevant information about each Sox opponent into a more easily digested format. I think this will make the previews easier to read and easier to write. Ill still go through the pitching matchups and make predictions for each game.

Venue: Fenway Park

Opponent: Seattle Mariners

Record: 35-31, 6.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West

Last 10 Games: 4-6, against the Rays (bad team), Rangers (very good), and Indians (good)

Run Differential: +55, 2nd AL, 5th in MLB

Team ERA: 3.69, 1st in AL 

Runs Scored: 330, 2nd in AL

Players to Watch:

2B Robinson Cano. The Mariners famously pried Cano away from the Yankees by offering him a 10 year, $240 million dollar contract during the 2013 offseason. In the first two seasons of that deal, he was a massive disappointment, causing people to question whether his contract was in fact the worst in all of baseball. However, he has rebounded in a big way this season, hitting .297/.350/.560 with 18 HR (tied for 3rd most in the AL). He is a sure-fire all-star this year, leading the team in the way his contract indicates that he should.

DH Nelson Cruz. The Mariners added Cruz after the 2014 season, when he mashed 40 homers as a member of the Baltimore Orioles. At the time, this seemed like a case of a team buying high on a player who had the best season of his career at 33 years old with a history of taking steroids (he was suspended for 50 games in 2013). Since then, Cruz has proved all the skeptics wrong by tallying 44 homers last year and 16 more this season. He provides a ton of power from the right side of the plate and anchors the middle of the Seattle batting order. 

1B Dae Ho Lee was imported from the Japanese League this year, making him technically a 33 year old rookie. The South Korean slugger has wracked up 10 home runs this season in just 45 games, and is a real power threat from the right side of the plate. Mostly though, I included him in this preview because he looks like a cartoon character, and Asian sluggers have a tendency to use giant leg kicks in their swings and flip their bats to the moon when they connect, so they're always fun to watch. See below for proof. 

I can't be the only one who finds these commentators hilarious

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Friday, 7:10 EST): Roenis Elias (L) vs. Hisashi Iwakuma (R) 

      In game 1, the Sox will be giving Elias (nice name, guy) his first start of the season. Elias has pitched just 1.2 innings this year out of the pen, giving up 3 runs. He is a 3 pitch guy, featuring a fastball with decent velocity (92-94 MPH), a changeup and a curveball. Honestly, he hasn't done too much in his career; he is 27 years old, with only 2 years of experience at the major league level. Before coming to Boston, he was a starter for the Mariners, where he compiled a 4.23 ERA in two seasons. Honestly, I don't have very high hopes for him, but the Sox are searching for solutions in the back end of the rotation and I have no problem throwing this spaghetti against the wall and seeing if it sticks. He can't be much worse than what we've seen from Buccholz/Owens/Kelly. 

     The Mariners are going with Iwakuma in this one, a right hander who has a 4.10 ERA in 13 starts this season. He is coming off back-to-back solid starts, both against the Texas Rangers, so he has some momentum going. He will need it against the Red Sox MLB-best offensive attack. Iwakuma, like a lot of pitchers who start their career in Asia, uses a ton of different pitches, mixing in 6 different pitch types. He does not have good velocity, with a fastball topping out at just 90 MPH. However, he makes up for it with trickery, as he throws a sinker, 4-seam fastball, cut fastball and splitter all around the same speed but with different types of movement. His best off-speed pitch is a slider, which has a big sweeping break down and away from right handed hitters that he likes to bury in the dirt to pick up strikeouts. In order to be successful, Iwakuma must keep the ball down in the zone and induce a lot of groundouts. I think there could be a lot of runs in this one, but I have to give the edge to the Mariners, given Elias' lack of experience and the whole lefty-pitchers-suck-at-Fenway thing. 

        

Game 2 (Saturday, 4:05 EST): Rick Porcello (R) vs Wade Miley (R)

     Rick Porcello has been struggling a bit in the month of June, giving up 5 home runs in his last 4 starts. The Red Sox really need him to continue to pitch at least decently, as their rotation outside of Price and Wright has been questionable at best. Rick continues to pile up innings, going at least 6 in each of his last 4 starts. If Porcello can keep the ball down and avoid the long ball, I think he will have a solid, Rick Porcello kind of outing (something like 6.2 IP, 3-4 runs). 

     Wade Miley is a guy Red Sox fans will remember from last season, when he pitched for Boston to the tune of a 4.46 ERA (not so good). When he is on, he has solid velocity on his fastball (90-94 MPH), good control of his changeup, and mixes in a devastating slow curveball that breaks heavily from 12-6. When he's not on, he gives up a ton of home runs and gets absolutely shelled like he did a couple starts ago in giving up 12 runs to the freaking Padres. I think the Sox should have no trouble scoring against him, and will win.

Game 3 (Sunday, 1:35 EST): David Price (L) vs Taijuan Walker (R)

     Price has turned his season around recently, lowering his ERA in each of his last 8 starts while continuing to lead the AL in strikeouts with 102 on the year. He has been a bit unlucky in his last 3 starts, going 7 or 8 innings while giving up 3 or fewer runs, yet getting the loss because his teammates couldn't give him any run support. While the Mariners don't have a ton of lefties in their lineup, two of their best hitters (Cano and Red Sox killer Kyle Seager) are, which gives Price an advantage. One thing to watch in this one is the long ball; Price has given up at least one home run in 6 consecutive starts, which could be a problem against this power hitting team. 

     Opposing Price will be Taijuan Walker, the 23-year-old righty who is already in his 3rd major league season. Walker had a phenomenal start to the season, with a sub-2.00 ERA as late as May 6th. Since then, he has been struggling, with his ERA rising up to 3.69 over the last 6 weeks. Walker throws incredibly hard, using 4 different fastballs averaging around 94 MPH and topping out at 99 with his 4-seam fastball. However, he needs to do more work developing his offspeed pitches; currently, he really only uses a curveball, although at 75 MPH it can be brutally difficult to adjust to. This one could be a pitchers duel, but in any game that Price pitches I have to favor the Red Sox to win. 

Summer Movie Reviews: Warcraft

Thanks to my friends over at Comcast's Universal Studios (fuck you Comcast), I was able to get into an early screening of Warcraft, the highly anticipated blockbuster that brings the wildly popular computer role-playing game to life in what I'm certain will be the first of several installments. Full disclosure: I have never played the game, nor do I have any knowledge of its mythology. I had no preconceived notions of what I would or "should" see or who any of the characters are, nor had I read any reviews. I did know that fans of the game have been eagerly awaiting this release since it was first announced wayyy back in 2006. Such a long production time usually makes people nervous about the quality of the finished product, and I have to be honest: movies like this are the reason why.

Being a blank slate may be an asset to reviewing the film impartially, but it was certainly NOT an asset to actually understanding what I was watching. The plot follows the early interactions between orcs and humans in the World of Warcraft, alternating perspectives from scene to scene. This choice made it tough to tell who to root for, and it also made the whole thing feel very choppy; from one scene to the next, I had no idea where we would be going or who would be on screen. Maybe this wouldn't have been such an issue if I had an understanding of how various cities and places related to one another, but as a neophyte I was frequently lost. The opening chapter of a series like this needs to do a lot of exposition and world building, a difficult task that Warcraft completely failed at. I left the theater with far more questions about key plot elements than answers, and the questions were not the kind that would drive me to spend more money to find the answers.

Without a clear protagonist identified in the script, it was on the cast to establish who these characters were and how to feel about them. Unfortunately, most of the actors in this movie are either incapable of displaying emotion, or didn't care enough to try. Travis Fimmel (Anduin Lothar) was particularly awful, failing to produce a single facial expression in the entire 2 hour run time. Ben Schnetzer played Khandar, a young rapscallion of a mage who forms a sort of buddy cop duo with Anduin. Schnetzer was going for comic relief, but I found him far more annoying than funny. His goofiness was awkward and kind of half-assed, although to be fair he didn't have much chance with Fimmel doing his best schizophrenic flat affect impression. Ben Foster completely mailed in his performance as Medivh, a character whose role, actions and motivations made no sense to me. Dominic Cooper and Ruth Negga were actually solid as King Llane Wrynn and his wife Lady Taria, but they didn't get nearly enough screen time to make up for the sloppy bullshit the rest of the cast put forth. Meanwhile, on the orcs side of things, there were some solid performances. However, they were mostly overshadowed for me by the fact that all the orcs looked basically the same, which made it tough to keep straight who was who and what was going on. Because the acting in this film was so God-awful, I found that I didn't care about any of the characters, and was disinvested in the entire enterprise.

But let's be honest here; the appeal of a film like this is not its complex characters or enrapturing plot; its the action and epic visuals of a mythical world where fantastic beasts smash each other. Visually, Warcraft did not disappoint. The 3D experience was actually really cool, and didn't have the gimmicky feel of some other 3D movies I've seen. The CGI was excellent, which is absolutely critical when so much of the film is computer generated. The settings looked fantastic, but honored the fantasy nature of the source material. The action was pretty cool, featuring orcs breaking people and epic armies colliding. The best thing the film did was its portrayal of magic, which usually looks terrible in films but here looks really cool, aided by the 3D. I do have one complaint about how this film looked, however: the changing size of the orcs. I couldn't tell exactly what size they were supposed to be. There were POV shots from an orcs perspective that looked down on humans from a high angle, indicating that the orc was a 10 foot tall giant. But then there were other shots that had both humans and orcs in the frame, which made orcs seem like they were the same height as humans but just massively more muscular. In one sequence, an orc picks a horse up and uses it as a projectile weapon, only to ride a different horse about 10 seconds later. What size are these things supposed to be? While it may be a minor detail, it distracted me throughout the entire show.

Overall, I found this film confusing and disinteresting. I have been referring to characters by name in this review, but honestly I had to Google them because I could only name one or two on the way out of the theater. I didn't care about anyone, and I didn't understand a lot of the key parts of the world and the groups that inhabit it. I'm not going to spoil the ending, but I will say that it is abundantly clear that there will be sequel(s) to this garbage fire. Considering the modest budget of $160 million and the built in fan base, I expect that it will be very profitable for Universal. If you know the mythology of World of Warcraft, this movie may be awesome for you. But if not, I would give it a pass.

Red Sox Roundup

The Sox split two games out in San Francisco, which is a really cool ballpark aside from the fact that they literally forgot to put in bullpens when they built it. Since it is an even year, it's likely that if the Sox make it to the World Series, the Giants will be there waiting for them (San Fran won the championship in 2010, 2012, and 2014), so this was a good test. Both games were tight, well pitched affairs decided in the late innings.

In game 1, the Sox got 6 strong innings from Rick Porcello, but trailed 3-2 by the time both starters had left the game. In the 7th, Jackie Bradley Jr. worked a one out walk, then stole second base and advanced to third on a bad throw. He scored on David Ortiz's groundout to tie the game. The bullpens exchanged blanks for a couple innings, and then in the 10th the Sox went back to work. Backup catcher Sandy Leon rripped a double (!), followed by a pinch hit walk from Marco Hernandez. Mookie Betts came up in a classic sacrifice bunt situation, and proceeded to lay down an absolutely PERFECT bunt that trickled down the third base line for a hit. two batters later, Xander Bogaerts delivered the game winning hit when he dumped a 2-2 slider into center field, driving in 2 runs. This Sox offense has been special in a lot of ways, but I think my favorite thing about it is the variety of ways they can beat you: power, speed, manufacturing runs, this team can do it all.

Game 2 featured one of the best pitching matchups available in baseball today, with lefty aces David Price and Madison Bumgarner going head to head. Both pitchers were fantastic, with the only runs on the day coming by way of solo home runs. Price outlasted Bumgarner, going 8 innings to Madison's 6, but came out the hard luck loser when he gave up the first home run of Mac Williamson's career in the 8th inning. Williamson almost went from hero to goat in the next half inning, when he dropped a can of corn fly ball off the bat of Hanley Ramirez. However, the Sox could not cash in on the mistake, as Travis Shaw struck out with two men aboard before Marco Hernandez's groundout ended the game. It's a real shame to waste Price's best start of the season, but sometimes you just gotta tip your cap.

Next up is a three game series with the Twins in Minnesota. I'm not going to waste my time with a full preview, because the Sox should sweep these bums. The Twins have the 2nd worst record in all of baseball (18-40) and the 3rd worst run differential (-83). They are dead last in the AL in runs scored AND in team ERA, so these are games the Sox really should put in the win column.

   
Instead of a preview of the pitching matchups, I'd like to talk about some of the concerns I have about the offense. Through the first two months of the season, just about everyone in the lineup was on fire, and the Sox were the '27 Yankees reincarnated. In the last couple of weeks though, things have started to turn. Hanley Ramirez is mired in a big slump, going just 6-52 (.115 average) since May 23rd. He also has not hit a home run since May 10th, and has just 4 big flies on the season. Likewise, Travis Shaw is also struggling. On May 17th, Shaw was hitting .329; he is now batting just .275. He has hit just one home run over that stretch, so the Sox are experiencing a major power outage from the corners of the infield.
Fortunately, the middle infield continues to ruin opposing pitchers. Dustin Pedroia has at least one hit in 15 straight games, and 26 of his last 28. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .340, second in the AL only to Victor Martinez at .341. However, I am worried that the Xman's production thus far has been the result of some pretty good luck. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is a stat that is used to measure how lucky a player has been; the higher the BABIP, the luckier a player has been. League average is right around .300, and this year Boggy's benefitted from a .394 BABIP. It's true that not all balls in play are created equal; a screaming line drive is a lot more likely to produce a hit than an infield pop-up. Luckily, the wonderful folks over at Baseball Reference track every batted ball and categorize them as a line drive, a fly ball, a ground ball, or a pop-up. Xander Bogaerts hits a line drive on 20.6% of the balls he puts in play; league average is 21%. So, we can see that he is getting hits more often than average players while not hitting more line drives than average. That typically is not sustainable, so I expect Bogaerts to cool off as the season progresses.

AL East divisional Roundup

American League East

Team	Wins	Losses	Games Back	Last 10
Baltimore	32	23	--	6-4
Boston	33	24	--	4-6
Toronto	31	27	2.5	8-2
New York	26	30	6.5	4-6
Tampa Bay	25	30	7	4-6

We are approximately 1/3rd of the way through the regular season, so it seems like a good time to take a step back from just the Red Sox and get a broader look at the division. It also helps that, with the exception of the Rays, these teams have been playing each other for the last 10-14 days, so we have a decent idea of how they stack up head-to-head at the moment. 

As you can see from the table above, the Toronto Blue Jays have been loving their interdivisional games recently, as they are 9-3 in the past 12 games, all against the Red Sox and Yankees. They just finished taking two out of three from the Red Sox in Fenway, no easy feat considering how well Boston has played at home this year. Their offense has certainly woken up recently, scoring at least 5 runs in 6 of their 12 division games. Most experts predicted the Blue Jays would win this division for a second straight year, and they certainly have the power packed offense to do the trick. While they had a horrible start to the season, they certainly appear to be right back on track, and will make this division a three-way battle into September. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to struggle in what has been a down season for them. In their 12 division games over the past two weeks, they are just 4-8, with two of those wins coming against the cellar-dwelling Rays. New York continues to struggle offensively, which is a very unfamiliar feeling for the Evil Empire. These recent struggles are not wholly unexpected considering the roster moves the Yankees have made in this century; they are in the process of trying to get younger and cheaper, but for the moment still have aging, overpriced and underproducing stars like Mark Texeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Brian McCann clogging up their roster. While their shiny trio of bullpen guys who throw 100 MPH has been as good as advertised, it doesn't mean much when there isn't a lead to protect. The Yankees will be very interesting around the trade deadline, as they will either try to add offense for a quick fix, or try to sell off some of their valuable bullpen assets to build for the future. 

In Baltimore, the Orioles continue to find ways to win despite having a run differential far inferior to that of the Red Sox. Manager Buck Showalter is a genius at winning close games, and is one of the top two or three skippers in all of baseball. He led them to 2 close wins in 3 close games over the weekend against the Yankees, after splitting a four game set with Boston that was overflowing with offense. While I think the Red Sox are a more experienced and more talented team, I fully expect the Orioles to compete for this division right down to the wire. 

Finally, let's talk about the frustrating last couple weeks for the Red Sox. After blowing very winnable games in Toronto to start this stretch against the division, Boston looked to have righted the ship with two convincing wins to start the series with Baltimore. However, the entire pitching staff melted down over the next two games, resulting in games that roughly resembled this

On Wednesday, the Sox hit 5 home runs and lost by 4. Yep, you read that right. Joe Kelly got lit up for 7 runs in less than 3 innings, and then long reliever extraordinaire Clay Buccholz allowed 4 more in 3 innings of work. After consecutive bed-shittings from Kelly, Boston sent him back down to the minors to work on not getting shelled, which opens up a spot in the rotation. This is a problem, because it means John Farrell has the choice of starting either Clay Fuckholz or a minor league call-up every fifth day. Neither option is particularly appealing. 

On Thursday, Boston was actually tied with Baltimore, 5-5, going into the 7th inning. Unfortunately, the bullpen continued to struggle by allowing 7 runs over the following three innings, mostly by way of the long ball. The Orioles hit SEVEN home runs in this game, and that pretty much always leads to victory. 

The disappointing end to the Baltimore series overshadowed the success of one Mookie Betts, who hit 5 home runs in 7 at-bats over two games on Tuesday and Wednesday. That ties the major league record for most home runs in a a two game span, so its a significant accomplishment. Its also another sign that Betts is continuing to heat up, which is huge considering the recent offensive struggles of Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. 

On Friday, the Red Sox simply couldn't hit R.A Dickey and his knuckleball, wasting a quality effort from David Price in the process. They won on Saturday behind a strong day from the top of the order (batters 1-4 were 7-15), but in the series finale were no-hit through seven innings by Marco Estrada. They found their swings late, scoring 4 times in the 8th and 9th innings, but fell just short of a massive comeback when pinch hitter Marco Hernandez struck out with men at first and second to end the game. 

The Sox go on the road this week, heading to San Franciso for a quick two gamer with the Giants, then on to Minnesota for three with the Twins. I will be back tomorrow to preview both series, as well as some more of my thoughts on the team. Go Sox!