Opponent: Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 31-43, last place in AL East 13.5 back of Baltimore
Recent Results: 11 straight loses, just got swept in 4 games by the Orioles
Run Differential: -39, 2nd worst in AL
Team ERA: 4.37, 11th in AL
Runs Per Game: 3.98, worst in AL
The Red Sox go from playing the hottest team in the league in Texas to the absolute coldest in Tampa Bay, and they really need to get good results to turn things around. Boston is 9-14 for the month of June, and have fallen to 4.0 games back of the Orioles, who simply refuse to lose. When you play the bottom feeders of the league, you simply have to wrack up wins. Let's see if Boston can take advantage of this opportunity to close the month out strong.
Pitching Matchups
Game 1 (Monday, 7:10 EST): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Blake Snell
E-Rod has had a tough time getting going this season. He started on the DL, and in five starts since returning he has only been able to complete six innings twice and has kept the opposition under 3 runs only once. He has also given up 7 homers, with at least one in each of his last four starts. He did strike out 7 batters in his last outing against Chicago, a season high, so that's an indication that he may be turning things around. We'll see if he can continue to make strides forward against a bad offense.
Blake Snell was a first round pick for Tampa Bay back in 2011, and made his Major League debut in late April of this year. He has only made 3 starts to this point, but is coming off the best outing of his young career (6.2 IP, 3 runs vs Cleveland). Snell is a a talented lefty, but is still raw at the age of 23. He has a plus fastball, which averages 94 MPH and is the basis for his entire arsenal. He takes about 10 MPH off of his fastball for his changeup, which is a Major League level velocity difference. In terms of breaking balls, he uses his curveball the most, which is a classic slow, 12-6 curve at 75 MPH. He also features a slider, although he hasn't displayed much confidence in it thus far, as he has only thrown it 23 times in the big leagues. This game seems like a toss up to me, and will come down to which 23-year-old lefty has his best stuff.
Game 2 (Tuesday, 7:10 EST): Rick Porcello vs. Chris Archer
Rick Porcello has pretty much established who he is at this point. You can basically pencil him in for 6-7 innings with 3-4 runs allowed, which is enough to at least keep the Sox in the game. With this awesome of an offense, Porcello's consistency is a welcome sight, and I like Boston's chances whenever he is in the game.
Chris Archer is the nominal ace of this Rays team, and has been on the verge of breaking out as a truly dominating pitcher since his debut in 2013. This season, he has been struggling a bit, with a 4.70 ERA in 16 starts. However, he is still striking batters out at an elite rate, averaging over 10 K's per 9 innings pitched. His 108 total Ks is 3rd in the American League, just 2 behind league leader David Price. Archer has gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 6 starts, but has also allowed at least 3 runs in all of those games. He is a 3 pitch pitcher, with absolute gas. His fastball is 94-98 MPH, with sink when it is going well. He also throws a changeup and a slider, which he uses as his primary strikeout pitch. However, he has a tendency to leave his slider hanging when things aren't going well for him, and hopefully the Red Sox can get ahold of a couple of his mistakes.
Game 3 (Wednesday, 12:10 EST): David Price vs. Matt Moore
David Price is looking to recover from his absolute disaster in Texas, when he gave up 6 runs while recording only 7 outs. Prior to that outing, Price had been on a string of dominant starts, and he is the league leader in strikeouts. While I do expect the Red Sox ace to return to form in this one, there were concerning signs from his last start. He seemed to go back to the low hand position and low leg kick that plagued him in the beginning of the season, and as a result his velocity was down and his location was up. If his motion is not corrected for this start, his results won't be corrected either.
Matt Moore burst onto the scene with excellent seasons in both 2012 and 2013, but then he missed all of 2014 and most of 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He hasn't been the same pitcher since rehabbing, with an ERA north of 5.00 in 27 starts since the injury. He has lost a couple MPH off of his fastball, and now has to rely more on his location and offspeed stuff to get hitters out. His most interesting pitch is his knuckle-curve, which is a pitch with both lateral and vertical movement with a velocity in the low 80s. He will have to walk a thin line against this Boston offense, and I expect the Red Sox to get to him without too much trouble.
Prediction: Red Sox win at least two out of three.
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