Little bit of a different format this week. Im condensing the relevant information about each Sox opponent into a more easily digested format. I think this will make the previews easier to read and easier to write. Ill still go through the pitching matchups and make predictions for each game.
Venue: Fenway Park
Opponent: Seattle Mariners
Record: 35-31, 6.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West
Last 10 Games: 4-6, against the Rays (bad team), Rangers (very good), and Indians (good)
Run Differential: +55, 2nd AL, 5th in MLB
Team ERA: 3.69, 1st in AL
Runs Scored: 330, 2nd in AL
Players to Watch:
DH Nelson Cruz. The Mariners added Cruz after the 2014 season, when he mashed 40 homers as a member of the Baltimore Orioles. At the time, this seemed like a case of a team buying high on a player who had the best season of his career at 33 years old with a history of taking steroids (he was suspended for 50 games in 2013). Since then, Cruz has proved all the skeptics wrong by tallying 44 homers last year and 16 more this season. He provides a ton of power from the right side of the plate and anchors the middle of the Seattle batting order.
1B Dae Ho Lee was imported from the Japanese League this year, making him technically a 33 year old rookie. The South Korean slugger has wracked up 10 home runs this season in just 45 games, and is a real power threat from the right side of the plate. Mostly though, I included him in this preview because he looks like a cartoon character, and Asian sluggers have a tendency to use giant leg kicks in their swings and flip their bats to the moon when they connect, so they're always fun to watch. See below for proof.
I can't be the only one who finds these commentators hilarious
Pitching Matchups
Game 1 (Friday, 7:10 EST): Roenis Elias (L) vs. Hisashi Iwakuma (R)
In game 1, the Sox will be giving Elias (nice name, guy) his first start of the season. Elias has pitched just 1.2 innings this year out of the pen, giving up 3 runs. He is a 3 pitch guy, featuring a fastball with decent velocity (92-94 MPH), a changeup and a curveball. Honestly, he hasn't done too much in his career; he is 27 years old, with only 2 years of experience at the major league level. Before coming to Boston, he was a starter for the Mariners, where he compiled a 4.23 ERA in two seasons. Honestly, I don't have very high hopes for him, but the Sox are searching for solutions in the back end of the rotation and I have no problem throwing this spaghetti against the wall and seeing if it sticks. He can't be much worse than what we've seen from Buccholz/Owens/Kelly.
The Mariners are going with Iwakuma in this one, a right hander who has a 4.10 ERA in 13 starts this season. He is coming off back-to-back solid starts, both against the Texas Rangers, so he has some momentum going. He will need it against the Red Sox MLB-best offensive attack. Iwakuma, like a lot of pitchers who start their career in Asia, uses a ton of different pitches, mixing in 6 different pitch types. He does not have good velocity, with a fastball topping out at just 90 MPH. However, he makes up for it with trickery, as he throws a sinker, 4-seam fastball, cut fastball and splitter all around the same speed but with different types of movement. His best off-speed pitch is a slider, which has a big sweeping break down and away from right handed hitters that he likes to bury in the dirt to pick up strikeouts. In order to be successful, Iwakuma must keep the ball down in the zone and induce a lot of groundouts. I think there could be a lot of runs in this one, but I have to give the edge to the Mariners, given Elias' lack of experience and the whole lefty-pitchers-suck-at-Fenway thing.
Game 2 (Saturday, 4:05 EST): Rick Porcello (R) vs Wade Miley (R)
Rick Porcello has been struggling a bit in the month of June, giving up 5 home runs in his last 4 starts. The Red Sox really need him to continue to pitch at least decently, as their rotation outside of Price and Wright has been questionable at best. Rick continues to pile up innings, going at least 6 in each of his last 4 starts. If Porcello can keep the ball down and avoid the long ball, I think he will have a solid, Rick Porcello kind of outing (something like 6.2 IP, 3-4 runs).
Wade Miley is a guy Red Sox fans will remember from last season, when he pitched for Boston to the tune of a 4.46 ERA (not so good). When he is on, he has solid velocity on his fastball (90-94 MPH), good control of his changeup, and mixes in a devastating slow curveball that breaks heavily from 12-6. When he's not on, he gives up a ton of home runs and gets absolutely shelled like he did a couple starts ago in giving up 12 runs to the freaking Padres. I think the Sox should have no trouble scoring against him, and will win.
Game 3 (Sunday, 1:35 EST): David Price (L) vs Taijuan Walker (R)
Price has turned his season around recently, lowering his ERA in each of his last 8 starts while continuing to lead the AL in strikeouts with 102 on the year. He has been a bit unlucky in his last 3 starts, going 7 or 8 innings while giving up 3 or fewer runs, yet getting the loss because his teammates couldn't give him any run support. While the Mariners don't have a ton of lefties in their lineup, two of their best hitters (Cano and Red Sox killer Kyle Seager) are, which gives Price an advantage. One thing to watch in this one is the long ball; Price has given up at least one home run in 6 consecutive starts, which could be a problem against this power hitting team.
Opposing Price will be Taijuan Walker, the 23-year-old righty who is already in his 3rd major league season. Walker had a phenomenal start to the season, with a sub-2.00 ERA as late as May 6th. Since then, he has been struggling, with his ERA rising up to 3.69 over the last 6 weeks. Walker throws incredibly hard, using 4 different fastballs averaging around 94 MPH and topping out at 99 with his 4-seam fastball. However, he needs to do more work developing his offspeed pitches; currently, he really only uses a curveball, although at 75 MPH it can be brutally difficult to adjust to. This one could be a pitchers duel, but in any game that Price pitches I have to favor the Red Sox to win.
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