Red Sox Roundup

The Sox split two games out in San Francisco, which is a really cool ballpark aside from the fact that they literally forgot to put in bullpens when they built it. Since it is an even year, it's likely that if the Sox make it to the World Series, the Giants will be there waiting for them (San Fran won the championship in 2010, 2012, and 2014), so this was a good test. Both games were tight, well pitched affairs decided in the late innings.

In game 1, the Sox got 6 strong innings from Rick Porcello, but trailed 3-2 by the time both starters had left the game. In the 7th, Jackie Bradley Jr. worked a one out walk, then stole second base and advanced to third on a bad throw. He scored on David Ortiz's groundout to tie the game. The bullpens exchanged blanks for a couple innings, and then in the 10th the Sox went back to work. Backup catcher Sandy Leon rripped a double (!), followed by a pinch hit walk from Marco Hernandez. Mookie Betts came up in a classic sacrifice bunt situation, and proceeded to lay down an absolutely PERFECT bunt that trickled down the third base line for a hit. two batters later, Xander Bogaerts delivered the game winning hit when he dumped a 2-2 slider into center field, driving in 2 runs. This Sox offense has been special in a lot of ways, but I think my favorite thing about it is the variety of ways they can beat you: power, speed, manufacturing runs, this team can do it all.

Game 2 featured one of the best pitching matchups available in baseball today, with lefty aces David Price and Madison Bumgarner going head to head. Both pitchers were fantastic, with the only runs on the day coming by way of solo home runs. Price outlasted Bumgarner, going 8 innings to Madison's 6, but came out the hard luck loser when he gave up the first home run of Mac Williamson's career in the 8th inning. Williamson almost went from hero to goat in the next half inning, when he dropped a can of corn fly ball off the bat of Hanley Ramirez. However, the Sox could not cash in on the mistake, as Travis Shaw struck out with two men aboard before Marco Hernandez's groundout ended the game. It's a real shame to waste Price's best start of the season, but sometimes you just gotta tip your cap.

Next up is a three game series with the Twins in Minnesota. I'm not going to waste my time with a full preview, because the Sox should sweep these bums. The Twins have the 2nd worst record in all of baseball (18-40) and the 3rd worst run differential (-83). They are dead last in the AL in runs scored AND in team ERA, so these are games the Sox really should put in the win column.

   
Instead of a preview of the pitching matchups, I'd like to talk about some of the concerns I have about the offense. Through the first two months of the season, just about everyone in the lineup was on fire, and the Sox were the '27 Yankees reincarnated. In the last couple of weeks though, things have started to turn. Hanley Ramirez is mired in a big slump, going just 6-52 (.115 average) since May 23rd. He also has not hit a home run since May 10th, and has just 4 big flies on the season. Likewise, Travis Shaw is also struggling. On May 17th, Shaw was hitting .329; he is now batting just .275. He has hit just one home run over that stretch, so the Sox are experiencing a major power outage from the corners of the infield.
Fortunately, the middle infield continues to ruin opposing pitchers. Dustin Pedroia has at least one hit in 15 straight games, and 26 of his last 28. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .340, second in the AL only to Victor Martinez at .341. However, I am worried that the Xman's production thus far has been the result of some pretty good luck. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is a stat that is used to measure how lucky a player has been; the higher the BABIP, the luckier a player has been. League average is right around .300, and this year Boggy's benefitted from a .394 BABIP. It's true that not all balls in play are created equal; a screaming line drive is a lot more likely to produce a hit than an infield pop-up. Luckily, the wonderful folks over at Baseball Reference track every batted ball and categorize them as a line drive, a fly ball, a ground ball, or a pop-up. Xander Bogaerts hits a line drive on 20.6% of the balls he puts in play; league average is 21%. So, we can see that he is getting hits more often than average players while not hitting more line drives than average. That typically is not sustainable, so I expect Bogaerts to cool off as the season progresses.