The Sox just lost two of three to the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that had lost its previous 11 games. Tampa blew out Boston in game 1 and shut them out in game 3, with a Sox laugher sandwiched in the middle. All in all a pretty unsatisfying series, capping off an utterly disappointing month. The Red Sox finish June with a record of 10-16, which is not good. Not good at all. On June 1, Boston had a 2 game lead in the AL East. They now trail the Orioles by 5.5 games; a 7.5 game turnaround in a month is downright awful, and the Sox need to get things going before this deficit balloons out of control.
So what's been going wrong? The obvious answer is the pitching, particularly the starters. Steven Wright has been a wonderful surprise, leading the AL in ERA for most of the year. Rick Porcello has been solid and remarkably consistent, which is more than a lot of people expected from him. David Price has been good for the most part, although he has certainly not been the ace that Boston paid a king's ransom for in the offseason. While I still want more from the top spot in the rotation, for the season the Sox are 29-19 in games started by Price, Wright and Porcello. The problem is the back end of the rotation, where Boston is just 13-17. With the best offense in baseball, even halfway decent pitching will get you better results than that. Eduardo Rodriguez has been particularly disappointing; before his injury, all the reports coming out of spring training were raving that the 23 year old had figured things out and was primed for a major jump. He's healthy now, but we certainly aren't seeing any improvement in his performances. If anything, he has taken steps backwards this season; in his most recent start in Tampa, he got absolutely LIT UP, and it's not the first time.
So what can the Sox do about it? Well, this is where things get tricky. I certainly don't want to give up on Rodriguez, given the potential he has displayed at such a young age. The only way he is going to figure things out is by getting game action at the major league level, but it's tough to keep putting him out there if he's getting shelled and you have playoff aspirations. Clay Buccholz is another story: the guy is a bum, plain and simple. The only way he will stop giving up home runs and crooked numbers is if he gets hurt, and I would love to see him replaced in the rotation. Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of options within the Sox organization to step up. The top three starters in Pawtucket are Roenis Elias, Sean O'Sullivan, and Henry Owens, all of whom we have seen this year and none of whom have been impressive. Of the three, Owens probably has the best potential, but with an astounding 49 walks in 70 innings in Triple-A, it's clear that he does not yet have the command to pitch in the majors. One other potential option is Aaron Wilkerson, a 27-year-old righty who has a 2.20 ERA in 7 Triple-A starts this year. While he doesn't project as anything more than a #5 starter in the majors, it's probably time to give him a shot and see what he can do. He's not going to develop much more in the minors at his age, and he can hardly be worse than the slop the Sox have been trotting out there so far. Realistically though, for the Sox to really improve their pitching, they are going to need to look outside of the organization.
Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski has a proven track record of aggression, not hesitating to go out and get the players he needs to improve his rosters. While in charge of the TIgers, he made a number of significant mid-season moves, acquiring players like Jeremy Bonderman, Placido Polanco, Jhonny Peralta, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, and, of course, David Price. So, we have a GM ready and willing to pull the trigger on a trade if the return is right. Furthermore, while the Sox are light on minor league pitching prospects, they are fully stocked with position players in the minors who could be appealing trade chips, and they clearly have the funds to take on salary. The question is, who is possibly available?
My dream target would be Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves; the 25 year old is an established ace, and the Braves are absolutely terrible, the definition of a rebuilding team with no potential to contend for at least several more years. Unfortunately, they have Teheran signed through 2020, and view him as the centerpiece of their rebuild. It would probably take a package of prospects and at least one of Betts, Bogaerts or Bradley to even get their attention, and those guys are simply untouchable. I'd definitely make the call, but I don't expect any traction here.
Another option is Sonny Gray, the young ace of the Oakland Athletics drafted out of Vanderbilt University (what up). Gray is just 26, but is already in his 3rd full season in the majors and finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting last year. He has thrown a perfect game. He is a proven star, even though he has struggled his way to a 5.54 ERA this year. However, his struggles may drive the price down, and Oakland is a prime target to trade with. The A's are a small market team that is strapped for cash, and continually struggles to retain their stars. Gray is eligible for arbitration next year, meaning that Billy Beane will have to give him a substantial raise, trade him or lose him for nothing. This is probably the guy that Dombrowski should be focusing on, as he could help in both the short- and long-term, and may be available for a more reasonable package of prospects.
There are other lesser arms that may become available near the trade deadline, and the Sox should not have a stud or bust attitude. They need help now, and even decent starters would be a big improvement that could push the team into the playoffs. Dombrowski could consider Rich Hill, even though he is 36 and a free agent at the end of the season. He could go after Andrew Cashner, the Padres starter who is solid when healthy. He could look at Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, although Tampa would likely be reticent to send him to a team within the division. One thing has become crystal clear though: the Red Sox need to get somebody if they want to be serious contenders this season.
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