Thursday, June 30, 2016

NL All-Star Ballot


The MLB All-Star game will be held in San Diego on July 12 at 7 PM EST. Today is the deadline to vote for the teams, so I figured I would put together my ballot to give you a little guidance on who most deserves to be in the starting lineup for each league. While in most sports, the All-Star game doesn't matter beyond a quick (and deeply flawed) metric to measure a player's career achievements, in baseball the winning league gets home field advantage in the World Series, so the outcome of the game is actually very important. On to my picks. You can cast your own ballot by clicking on this link.

National League

First Base: Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
     The number one thing you want in a first baseman is a guy who can hit for power, and that's exactly what the Cubs have in Rizzo. He has hit 19 bombs this season, tied for 4th in the NL and most among NL first basemen. His 58 RBI are tied for 3rd, and best among players at his position. He also leads his position in slugging% at .576, 44 points better than 2nd place Wil Meyers. Oh yeah, and Rizzo has an On-Base% of .407, which is outstanding and trails only league leader Paul Goldschidt (.428) among fisrt basemen. Goldschidmt, however, has struck out 79 times to Rizzo's 48. While Goldschidt and Meyers are both having excellent seasons, Rizzo has just flat out been better. This was an easy pick. 

Second Base: Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
    When Murphy went on his incredible power surge during the playoffs last season, few people thought it was actually an indication of things to come. The Mets were so sure that his production was an aberration that they failed to match a 3 year, $37 million offer from their division rivals, a deal that looks like an absolute steal now. Murphy is hitting .352, which leads the league. He is best among 2B's in doubles (20), HR (14), RBI (53), Slugging % (.590), and Wins Above Replacement (2.7). He's been one of the best hitters in the game this season, and nobody is coming close to challenging his All-Star credentials at second base.

Shortstop: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
     This is a two-man race, with Seager and Colorado Rockies rookie Trevor Story. Trevor leads all SS with 19 HR on the season, and as a rookie sensation who came out of nowhere, might be the best *story* in baseball this year. However, Seager has been the better overall player. He has 17 HR, so he has almost matched Story's power, and has outproduced him in most other categories. Seager has the better average (.299 to .267), more doubles (20-18), a better On Base Percentage (.359-.334), and a better WAR (3.1-2.0). However, perhaps the most significant difference between the two is the amount they put the ball in play. Seager has struck out 60 times this season, which is around league average. Story has punched out 104 times, which is the most in the National League. Story has been fun, but Seager has been better. 

Third Base: Nolan Arenado
     There are a lot of viable choices here, and its probably the closest competition of any position in either league. The Cardinals Matt Carpenter has a .418 OBP, which is 2nd best in the league, and his OPS is a league-best 1.003. He's hitting .298 with 43 extra base hits, 14 of which are homers. Jake Lamb of the Arizona Diamondbacks is another valid choice; he has 17 HR and leads all NL 3B's with a .592 slugging%. However, for me this came down to two guys, Arenado and Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs, and the margin between the two is incredibly small. Both guys have 21 homers, tied for 2nd most in the league. They have identical On Base Percentages of .372. Both play excellent defense at the hot corner. Arenado has small leads in RBI (65-58), extra base hits (42-40), and WAR (3.8-3.7). However, where he really separates himself is with his batting average (.296-280), slugging% (.578-.560), and strikeouts (Bryant has struck out 77 times, Arenado just 41). Honestly, Carpenter probably has a better case than Bryant, although I place high enough value on home runs that hittin 50% more of them elevates your case by quite a bit. While I think Arenado is demonstrably having the best season, I won't be throwing any furniture if the large fanbases in Chicago or St. Louis get their guy into the game over the third baseman from small market Colorado. 

Catcher: Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals
     Wilson Ramos is an unusual case of a player breaking out at the age of 28, becoming a star virtually out of nowhere. His offensive numbers this year just don't look like those of a catcher, and he is leading all NL catchers in virtually every major category: batting average (.339), HR (12), RBI (43), OBP (.385), and Slugging% (.554). While he is barely above average defensively, offensive production like that from behind the plate will put you on the All-Star team every time. 

Outfield (Pick 3): Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies; Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins; Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
     This has been a weird season for NL outfielders, with several established stars having serious down years, especially by their standards (Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton come to mind). That opens the door for some lesser known guys to earn starting spots, and I went with three guys from smaller markets who I really enjoy watching play over rewarding Ryan Braun, who may be having a better season by some metrics but is also a total douchebag.  
     Carlos Gonzalez is one of the most talented players in baseball, yet between injury marred seasons and playing in Colorado, I feel like he isn't as big of a star as he should be. He is hitting .329, 2nd best among all NL outfielders, and is leading all NL outfielders in slugging at .584. He's hit 18 HR and has 51 RBI, so he has a wonderful blend of power and consistency that gives pitchers nightmares. He has lost some of his speed as he ages, which has turned him from an above average outfielder into one whose athleticism can no longer cover for his at-times suspect instincts. However, he isn't a major liability in the outfield, and his offensive production more than makes up for it. 
      Starling Marte is putting together an absolutely outstanding season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, toiling in the enormous shadows cast by the Cardinals and Cubs within the NL Central. Marte is batting .331, best among NL outfielders, and he has stolen 21 bases in a league where stealing is somewhat of a lost art. The threat he poses on the basepaths allows helps his teammates by distracting and unnerving opposing pitchers in a way that stats struggle to quantify but is obvious when you watch the game. His excellent speed also allows him to cover an amazing amount of ground in the outfield, where he makes some incredible catches that other outfielder's have no chance of making. If there's one thing in baseball more exciting than the home run, it's an incredible play in the outfield, and I want to watch Marte make them in San Diego. Marte may lack power at the plate, but his contributions in other facets of the game combine to give him a WAR of 3.3 this season, tops among NL outfielders.  
      Marcell Ozuna is one of the most underrated players in baseball today. That's understandable, considering that a) he plays in Florida, where baseball fandom is for some reason virtually nonexistent; and b) he plays in the same outfield as Christian Yelich and The Mighty Giancarlo Stanton, so whatever spotlight his team does get is usually directed at someone else. However, it's time for the world to start paying attention. The 25-year-old has broken out in a big way in his 4th MLB season, hitting .319 with a .564 slugging%, both in the top 5 among NL outfielders. He has hit 16 HR, most on his team, and he simply brings it every game. I'm not sure if his production is sustainable, but Ozuna is one of the biggest reasons the Marlins have surprised everybody by hanging in the playoff picture despite a massively slumping Giancarlo Stanton, and I think he should be rewarded for that.             

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