Red Sox-Orioles preview

First Place on the Line

     The Red Sox head to beautiful Camden Yards (the only beautiful thing in that pit of a city) this week for a big 4 game set against the Orioles. The Orioles are 28-20, 1 game behind Boston for the lead in the AL East. Baltimore is 5th in the American League with a +17 run differential, most of which comes from their 3.80 team ERA, which is 4th best in the league. However, they can also hit the ball a bit, with 214 runs scored on the year (7th in the league). The Orioles are managed by Buck Showalter, who is one of the best skippers in all of baseball, and have a penchant for winning close games. They do all the little things well, play good defense, and have a tremendous bullpen. Their relief corp is led by closer Zach Britton, whose 14 saves are tied for the league lead. He is joined by Brad Brach, Darren O'Day, and Mychal Givens, who all have ERAs under 3.00 for the season. This team is tough to beat late, so the Red Sox will have to hope their ability to get on the scoreboard early carries them through this series. 

     Offensively, the Orioles are led by perennial MVP candidate Manny Machado, who is one of the top 5 players in MLB as a five-tool third baseman (although he has been playing SS recently due to JJ Hardy's injury). Machado is hitting .315 this year, with 13 homers and an eye-popping 1.003 OPS that speaks to his blend of power and consistency getting on base.  The Orioles have also gotten major contributions from RF Mark Trumbo this year: Trumbo is tied for the AL lead in home runs with 15, and is tied for 4th in RBI with 37. 1B Chris Davis also provides power in the middle of the lineup; his 169 homers since 2011 are the most of any major league player over that timeframe, and earned him a 7 year $161 million contract in the offseason. However, Davis is one of those homer or bust type hitters, and his 66 strikeouts this season are 5th most in the majors. One guy who the Orioles are hoping to get a bit more out of is CF Adam Jones. Jones is one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and has hit at least 25 HR in each of the last 5 years. He has gotten off to a horrible start this season, hitting just .232 with only 12 extra base hits. Baltimore is going to need more from him as the year goes along if they want to keep up with the Sox. 

Watch out for Machado, Davis and Jones this week

Game 1: Steven Wright (R) vs Tyler Wilson (R)

     Wright comes into this start with a 2.52 ERA on the season, which is tied for 5th best in the American League. He is exactly what the Red Sox need in this game, as the bullpen worked very hard in the series against Toronto and is in need of a break. Wright has gone at least 7 innings in 3 of his past 4 starts, and his low-stress style should enable him to go deep into this game. I've been a doubter of the knuckleball all season, but I am not stubborn enough to keep predicting Wright will implode. I do think one of the Orioles power hitters will get ahold of a floater and send it into the seats, but I doubt they will get much more than a couple runs.

     Tyler Wilson is a 26-year-old righty pitching his first full season as a major league starter. He has an impressive 3.80 ERA this year, but has struggled a bit in each of his last two starts, giving up 9 runs in 12 IP. Wilson is not a strikeout pitcher, with only 22 Ks in 43 innings this year. He has below average velocity on his fastball, averaging just 89.8 MPH with the pitch this season. His main breaking ball is his curve, which has traditional 12-6 action at around 78 MPH. He also features the occasional changeup, which has a tricky late fading action that makes it probably his best swing-and miss pitch. Wilson relies on location and deception to get weak contact from opposing hitters, but I think the Sox will have no problem getting some runs across against him. Im going to predict a Red Sox victory in the opener. 

Game 2: Eduardo Rodriguez (L) vs Kevin Gausman (R)

     Rodriguez will be making his long awaited season debut for the Red Sox in this one, having recovered from the patella tendon subluxation that has sidelined him since February 27th. Before the season, I thought E-Rod's level of success would be a critical factor in determining how far the Red Sox go, and my opinion on that hasn't changed. If E-Rod has harnessed the ace-level talent he flashed at times as a 22-year-old rookie last season, then the Sox could have a real playoff rotation headlined by two devastating lefties. If he continues to experience intermittent problems with control and pitch tipping that lead him to alternate between excellent and awful results, then they will only go as far as their offense can carry them. As far as this start goes, I will be watching to see how well Rodriguez pitches inside, and how much progress he has made developing his slider. He has always had an above average fastball and changeup, but he needs that breaking ball to be a really outstanding major league pitcher. He has had problems with pitching aggressively at times in his young career, so I'm hoping to see that he has no qualms with going inside and attacking hitters. Before his injury, all reports out of spring training indicated that he was prepped for a big season, so I can't wait to finally see what he's got. 

     Kevin Gausman is another one of the Orioles young, promising starting pitchers. At 25 years old, Gausman has already compiled almost two full seasons of experience as a starter, although this year is his first as a full-time member of the Baltimore rotation. He is off to a strong start this season, with a 3.24 ERA in 7 starts. He has pitched at least 5.0 innings in every game he has appeared in, although he's gone more than 6.0 only twice, so the Sox can expect to at least get some looks against middle relievers in this game. Gausman throws serious gas from the right side, averaging almost 96 MPH with his fastball and topping out at over 100. He also has been throwing a pretty deadly splitter this season, which is a new pitch for him. Pitch F/X has no record of him using that pitch at all before 2016, but this year it is his favorite non-fastball offering. At 85-90 MPH, Gausman's splitter is an effective off speed pitch, and he likes to use it to strike batters out once he gets ahead in the count. While the Sox have been a very good fastball hitting team this year, I think Gausman could get the better of them with that splitter, at least early on in the game. He will have to be very careful with David Ortiz, as the Large Father is not only hitting the ever loving shit out of the ball right now, but also has great career numbers against Gausman (6-13, 2 HR). I think this will be a close game that comes down to the bullpens, but it's tough to know what to expect out of Rodriguez. Because of the uncertainty about a starting pitcher coming off the DL, Im going to have to predict an Orioles win here. 

Game 3: Joe Kelly (R) vs Mike Wright (R)

     Joe Kelly has made two starts since returning from the disabled list. In his first, he took a no-hitter into the 7th inning. In his second, he couldn't get Josh Donaldson out and allowed 5 runs in 4.2 IP. In both starts, Kelly has been living in the upper 90s with both four- and two-seam fastballs, leading to a lot of strikeouts (15 in 11.1 innings). One things to watch out for is the matchup with Chris Davis, who has had success against Kelly in the past to the tune of 5-10 with a homer. I think Kelly will pitch well in this one, but I can see the offense-friendly nature of Camden Yards contributing to a crooked inning for the home team that makes his stat line look mediocre.

     Stop me if this sounds familiar, but Mike Wright is a promising young arm that the Orioles believe will be a part of their future. At 26 years old and right handed, he fits like a glove (rimshot) with the rest of their pitching staff. Unlike most of their pitchers though, Wright has struggled this season, posting a 5.05 ERA in 9 starts. He has only pitched past the 6th inning once, and a typical game line of his looks something like 5 IP with 3-4 runs allowed. He does throw five different pitches, and has solid velocity on his fastball (93.4 MPH average). He has a decent slider and a workable changeup, but he really needs to locate his fastball to be successful. This guy strikes me as a typical workman, who will slot in as the fourth or fifth starter on a contending team. Given the friendly confines of Camden Yards, I see the Sox league leading offense having no trouble with him. I don't think Kelly needs to no-hit Baltimore in this one; as long as he is better than his last outing, the Red Sox will win. 

Game 4: Rick Porcello (R) vs Ubaldo Jimenez (R)

     Porcello battled through his last outing, allowing 4 runs in 6.2 IP against the outstanding Blue Jays offense. He has been a solid and dependable pitcher for the Sox this season, posting a 3.68 ERA so far to shut down the haters (Felger) who label him as an overpaid bum. While he is certainly not spectacular, Porcello has done enough mixing his two seam fastball with offspeed offerings to get outs consistently. I think he has really benefitted this season from having Christian Vazquez behind the plate; the young catcher exudes confidence and calls the game in a way that makes Rick feel secure on the mound, which is a necessary component to any starter's success. 

     Opposing Rick in this one will be Ubaldo Jimenez, the guy the Orioles acquired as a free agent in 2014 for $50 million over 4 years. Jimenez gained notoriety as a member of the Rockies in 2010, when he came out of nowhere to contend for the Cy Young Award. However, he has not been able to match that production since, and has bounced from Colorado to Cleveland and now Baltimore. This year, Jimenez has a 6.36 ERA and has allowed at least 5 runs in each of his last 4 starts. His success in the past depended largely on the effectiveness of his sinker, which he used to rack up strikeouts and double play balls. In the past two seasons, Jimenez has seen his velocity decrease by 3 MPH on his fastball, which is a classic sign of declining skills for a pitcher and unsurprising at the age of 32. He has also been throwing his slider less frequently, which is probably caused by being ahead in the count less frequently. While Jimenez is clearly on the decline in his career, it's always possible that he pulls a gem out of his ass. Considering that he hasn't had one since he faced the anemic Oakland offense three weeks ago though, I think the Sox will rake some extra base hits off him and put together scoring chances. I think this will be a close game, but Im going to give the edge to the Red Sox.

So there you have it. The Sox will take 3 of 4 from Baltimore, solidifying their place as the best team in the AL East. Keep an eye on Xander Bogaert's hitting streak, which stands at 22 games coming into the series.

Red Sox Recap: The one where the bullpen couldn't hold the lead

You all sucked. 

Game 1: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 7
-This was a back and forth back and forth affair, with at least one team scoring in 7 of the 9 innings
-Boston was always playing from behind in this one, tying the game 3 different times. However, they could never pull ahead, and the pitching couldn't keep the Jays down long enough to give the offense a chance to take control of the game with their bats.

Wanted: for the murder of Red Sox pitching

-Josh Donaldson was the MVP of this game. HR in the first, RBI double in the 3rd, RBI single in the 4th, game winning 2 run homer in the 8th. 4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI. Maybe pitch around him next time?

-As good as Joe Kelly was in his first start off the DL, thats how bad he was this time out. He gave up 9 hits, walked 3, and allowed 5 runs while not making it out of the 5th. The one positive? 8 strikeouts, which indicates that he did have swing-and-miss stuff. With better location, he will be more successful. Im not too worried about him moving forward.

-The Sox offense mounted a nice rally against the Jays bullpen, scoring 2 in the 7th and 1 more in the 8th to tie the game. It was particularly nice to see Christian Vazquez knock a 2-run single, as the catcher spot is the one position the Sox have not gotten good offensive production from to this point

-Xander Bogaerts was 1-4 in this one, extending his hitting streak to 20 games. While JBJ's streak got all the attention, the Xman has quietly been leading the AL in batting average over the first two months of the year

Game 2: Red Sox 9, Blue Jays 10

-Based solely on the final score, this game looks like a back and forth slugfest, but it seemed like another solid Sox victory for most of the game. They were up 8-4 going into the bottom of the 8th.

-Rick Porcello really battled in this one, going 6.2 innings and allowing 4 runs on 7 hits with 5 Ks. While he did give up a crooked number in the 3rd, allowing 3 Jays to cross the plate, he also fought to keep the Sox in the game. With the bases loaded and nobody out, he got Michael Saunders to ground into a 6-4-3 double play, squashing what could have been a really big inning. Take notes Clay Buccholz, that's how you fight to keep a start alive.

-Bogaerts continues to be on fire; 3-5 with a homer and 3 runs scored, plus a key stolen base in the 5th that allowed him to score on Pedroia's double. The Xman extended his streak to 21 games.

-Big Papi swung and missed at a slider which hit him in his back foot; embarrassing, but also painful. He stayed in the game, but the last thing we need is more wear and tear on the big man's feet, which are the weakest part of his body and, according to John Farrell, the part of him that is breaking down most and causing him to retire
                                                                                           
-Travis Shaw went deep in the 6th, launching a high changeup into the right field bleachers. When a pitcher makes a mistake like that, good hitters make them pay

-Now the bullpen stuff. Sigh. Going into the bottom of the 8th, the Sox had an 8-4 lead and looked to be cruising to victory. However, Toronto got their first two men on in the inning, and to Farrell's credit he didn't wait around to go to his best relievers. Unfortunately, it didn't work out.
-Junichi Tazawa has been excellent for the Sox for a few years now, but he was awful in this one. He gave up a 2 hits and a wild pitch to allow 3 runs to score, while only getting one out before giving way to Craig Kimbrel with the tying run on third.
-Kimbrel is one of the elite closers in baseball, but he is much better when he starts his own inning as opposed to stranding inherited runners. He got a big strikeout for the second out, but then gave up a two out single to Jose Bautista that tied the game.

-David Ortiz did his best David Ortiz impression in the 9th, putting the team on his back by blasting a middle-in fastball to the moon to recapture the lead. The guy is locked in, and loves playing in Rogers Centre; his 40 career home runs there are the most for any visiting player.

-I can make inherited runners excuses for Kimbrel in the 8th, but he got a second chance to hold the lead in the 9th and couldn't do it. Russell Martin drilled a 2 strike, 2 out double to tie the game.
-Christian Vazquez is an awesome defensive catcher, but he was horrible in this one. He airmailed two throws to second base, including one in the 9th. Then, with Martin at 2nd as the winning run, Christian couldn't hold on to a slider from Kimbrel, which allowed Martin to advance to third. That would be critical, because...
-Devin Travis rapped a sharp grounder down the third base line. Travis Shaw actually made a very nice play to snag it, plant his feet quickly and throw all the way across the diamond. However, the throw was low and Hanley Ramirez couldn't handle it, allowing the winning run to score. HanRam has exceeded all expectations at first base, but his inexperience there reared its ugly head at the worst possible time. Bad defense and bad bullpen pitching cost the Sox a divisional game they definitely should have won. Fuck.

Game 3: Red Sox 5, Toronto 3 (11 innings)
-David Price was purchased this season to be an Ace, the pitcher who breaks up losing streaks by shutting down whoever he is facing. After 3 straight losses, he is exactly the guy who the Sox wanted on the hill, and he delivered 6.1 innings of 2 run ball.
-Price made one big mistake, and Jose Bautista made him pay with a 2-run homer in the 5th

-Boston got 3 runs in the 6th on 2 hits, 2 walks and a hit batter, but could have had even more. They had the bases loaded with one out, but Josh Rutledge struck out and Christian Vazquez flied to right to end the innings. Wrong part of the lineup to have in that situation, but I'd like to see Rutledge at least make a productive out for an RBI
-Rutledge also failed to deliver in the 10th inning, when he came up with men at second and third and two outs. While Josh has been a surprise contributor, hitting over .300 as a utility infielder, this game won't be part of his highlights; he was 0-4 with 6 men left on base.

-Once again, the bullpen couldn't hold the lead. Heath Hembree has been very good out of the pen this season, but he blew this game in the 8th with one bad pitch. Ryan Hannigan called for a fastball away, but Hembree missed badly and left it right down the middle. Edwin Encarnacion hit an absolute laser into the upper deck to tie the game at 3.

-When John Farrell announced that Clay Buccholz was moving to the bullpen, I thought that meant we weren't going to see much of him anymore. Apparently, I was wrong. Farrell brought him in for the 10th, entrusting the game to the guy who can't stop giving up home runs. I was less than thrilled with this choice, but Buccholz did hold down the fort for his single inning

-Dustin Pedroia got the big hit of the night, an RBI double in the 11th. The Sox added one more on a groundout, and Uehara got the save. Dustin is one of the leaders of this team, and he got it done in the clutch.

So Boston is 3-3 in their last two series, 30-20 overall, heading to Baltimore for a huge 4 game series with first place on the line. Let's go bird hunting.

World Series Rematch: The Rockies come to Fenway for another beating

     In 2007, The Red Sox swept the red hot Rockies in the World Series to capture their second title in four years. That series will have no impact on this three game set, although that won't keep TV pundits from talking about it. Looking at you, Sportscenter.

     The Rockies come into the series at 21-22, 5.0 games back of the Giants in the NL West. They are finishing up a tough 9 game road trip, on which they are 2-4. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Despite their mediocre record, the Rockies actually have good offensive numbers as a team. They are 4th in the National League in runs scored with 211, and while it might be tempting to chalk that up to the fact that they play their home games a mile above sea level at Coors Field, that is not the case this year. Colorado has scored 99 runs at home, and 112 on the road. So their offensive production is legit. They are led by 3B Nolan Arenado, who is a true superstar and probably one of the 10 best position players in all baseball. Arenado is second in the NL with 14 HR, third with 34 RBI, and eighth with 50 hits. He is batting .298 with a .372 OBP and a .601 slugging percentage. Red Sox pitchers would be wise to be very careful with Nolan. Additionally, the Rockies feature one of the more interesting and surprising stories in baseball so far this season. Rookie shortstop Trevor Story has already blasted 12 home runs on the season, and is surging out to an early lead for the Rookie of the Year award. The Rockies can definitely swing the bats, which could allow them to compete with Boston's league leading offense.
     However, as has been the case for most of the franchise's existence, the Rockies struggle with pitching. They come into the series with a team ERA of 4.82, 13th out of 15 in the National League. They really don't have anything close to an ace in their starting rotation, and their starters ERA is 5.23, which is downright awful. Their bullpen is a bit better, led by Boone Logan and Gonzalez Germen, who both sport sub-2.00 ERAs, but without starting pitching a good bullpen is of limited use. Bringing bad pitching to Fenway is a really terrible idea right now, and their ERA could be going up over the next three days.

Game 1 (Tuesday, 7:10 EST): David Price (L) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (L)
     David Price goes for Boston in this game, looking to put together a third consecutive strong outing. Since making adjustments to his windup two starts ago, he has thrown 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and 3 runs allowed. Despite his early season struggles, Price actually leads the American League in Ks this season with 70, and has a good chance to add to that total significantly in this one. The Rockies have two guys in their batting order (Trevor Story and Mark Reynolds) who strikeout a LOT, so if Price has his stuff working, he could get those guys alone 4 or 5 times.
     Price will be opposed in this game by Jorge De La Rosa, who has been downright horrendous this season. De La Rosa is coming off a brief stint on the DL, and has not been effective yet this year. In 4 starts, he has only made it out of the 5th inning once, has not allowed fewer than 4 runs in a game, and has an ERA of 10.18. Suffice to say, I expect the Sox to jump all over him early and give Price plenty of run support to work with, leading to an easy Boston win.

Game 2 (Wednesday, 7:10 EST): Steven Wright (R) vs Chad Bettis (R)
     If you've been reading anything I've written this season, you'll know that I am skeptical of the success of Steven Wright this year. I simply don't trust the knuckleball to make a pitcher consistently elite. While it can get hit hard at any time, it is a very low stress pitch and doesn't pose much challenge in terms of pitching motion. Its success or failure seems to me to come down to luck, as Wright basically just floats it toward the plate and hopes it dances away from the barrel of the bat. That has certainly been happening most of the time this year, as Wright has a 2.52 ERA this year and has thrown at least 8 innings in two of his last three starts.
     Chad Bettis is probably the Rockies second best pitcher, but that's not saying much considering he has an ERA of 4.18. He is coming off of an excellent start against the very strong offense of the St. Louis Cardinals, where he went 6.2 innings while giving up just 1 run on 5 hits. A lot of people predicted that this would be a breakout season for Bettis, and he was all over the fantasy baseball sleeper lists. A lot of that hype was based on reports that his fastball was showing a marked increase in velocity during spring training, but that hasn't been the case so far. During brief major league stints in each of the past three years, his fastball was averaging about 92 MPH. This season, its averaged 91.6 MPH, so basically the same as what he's done before. Bettis also features a decent slider, two seam fastball, changeup, and the occasional slow curve, but he really doesn't have any pitch that is outstanding. He relies on location and guile to get hitters out, which is an approach that could conceivably be successful against he power-packed Boston lineup. However, I think the Red Sox are simply too hot to handle at this point (6 guys are over .300), and will be able to score some runs in this one.

Game 3 (Thursday, 7:10 EST): Clay Buccholz (R) vs Jon Gray (R)
     What more can I say about Clay Buccholz at this point? He has been better in May than he was in April, but continues to be plagued by the disease of the One Bad Inning. A typical start for this point sees him pitch decently well, but give up a crooked number in the 3rd, 4th or 5th inning, leading to a 4 or 5 run outing. He has a tendency to throw his worst pitches when there are a couple of men on base, giving up multiple runs on an extra base hit. I think it may be a mental thing at this point; either Clay simply can't handle the pressure, or he tries to be too careful and leaves a changeup in the middle of the plate. I can absolutely see Clay having one of those innings against the Rockies, in a situation where he has to face Arenado or Story with a couple guys on. I am sick of watching him pitch, and I can't wait for Eduardo Rodriguez to come back and knock him out of the rotation.
     While this is almost definitely Colorado's best chance to win a game this series, they will have to do so with 24-year-old Jon Gray and his 6.75 ERA on the mound. Up until his last outing, Gray was actually have an excellent run in the month of May. In his first three starts of the month, he went 20 innings while allowing just 4 runs on 10 hits with 24 strikeouts. Those numbers are really impressive, but it all came crashing down in his last start, when he allowing 9 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 3.1 innings. While its possible that he was simply off and the Cardinals mashed him, its equally possible that he got lucky and caught some cold offenses at the right time earlier in the month. We don't have much a track record on the young kid, who is in his first full major league season this year. WE do know that he has excellent velocity on his fastball, averaging 95.5 MPH on the season. He also has a decent slider, with solid movement down and away to a right handed hitter at 86 MPH that he uses to pile up strikeouts once he is ahead in the count. However, Gray has a lot of work to do developing his other offerings, as he has not shown much confidence throwing either his changeup or his curveball. He has only thrown those pitches a combined 40 times this year, so he really doesn't feel comfortable throwing them except as an experiment at this point. I think the Red Sox get on the youngster early and shake his confidence, getting into the bullpen again.

Prediction: The Rockies have relied on their offense to win games this year, and they won't be using their best pitcher this series. The Red Sox are 16-9 at Fenway, and the lineup has recovered nicely from a brief cold stretch in Kansas City. Barring a total meltdown from Buccholz, I think we're looking at another chance to break out the brooms as the Red Sox sweep. 

Sox Hold Serve Over Cleveland

The Red Sox took 2 of 3 in their series over the weekend, continuing their outstanding play at home. Let's take a look at some notes from each game.

Game 1: Red Sox 2, Indians 4
-The Sox continued to score runs early in ballgames, putting up a run in each of the first two innings
-Jackie Bradley extended his hitting streak in his first at bat, launching his 8th HR of the season in the 2nd. The kid is on fire, theres simply no other way to put it. If the season ended today he could easily be the American League MVP, and he hits in the bottom half of the Sox lineup.
-Unfortunately, Corey Kluber really settled down after a rough start, and shut down Boston through the next 5 innings
-Clay Buccholz continued to struggle with the curse of the One Bad Inning. In this case, it was the 3rd, when he gave up all 4 of Cleveland's runs. While Clay wasn't terrible in this one, you simply can't blow and early lead against he opposing team's ace and expect to win.
-Jackie Baseball showed his all around game on Friday. In addition to his homer, he wowed the crowd with this perfect throw to home plate in the air from center field. Sadly, Francisco Lindor made an incredible slide which will probably wipe this play from JBJ's season highlight reel
-Speaking of Lindor, the kid is electric. I spotlighted him as the player to watch in my series preview, and he did not disappoint. He was 2-3 in this game in addition to 2 walks, and made a great diving play at shortstop to steal a hit

Game 2: Red Sox 9, Indians 1
-This game was Red Sox domination basically from start to finish. Boston sent 9 men to the plate in the 3rd, scoring 3 runs, and never looked back
-As predicted, Joe Kelly made his return from the DL in this one. I did not, however, predict that he would have a no-hitter going with two outs in the 6th. He would finish with 7 Ks, 3 walks, 1 hit and no runs allowed.
-As unexpected as the no-no would have been, I blame announcer Dave O'Brien it being broken up. Any baseball player will tell you that you NEVER mention a no-hitter/perfect game while it is in progress, and O'Brien couldn't stop talking about it. Can't have the home town announcer jinxing our boys like that
-In addition to excellent numbers, Kelly simply looked dominant. He was living in the upper 90s with his fastball, and was painting with all his pitches. If Kelly can continue like that, the Sox might have the makings of a real pitching staff with Price, Wright, Kelly and Porcello offsetting the dupster fire that is Clay Buccholz, plus Eduardo Rodriguez waiting in the wings.
-Moookie Betts had a HUGE game, leading the offense with 2 HR, a double, 3 runs scored and 5 RBI. As outstanding as the Sox offense has been, Mookie really hasn't had a great start to the year. If he keeps heating up, this team could really give AL pitchers nightmares
-Terry Francona and the Indians did their best to pitch around JBJ, walking him 3 times in this game. However, Bradley was not to be denied, and got a hit to extend his streak. At this point, it seems like the only way to get him out is up and in with hard fastballs. But, if you don't get it elevated enough, he will kill you

Game 3: Red Sox 5, Indians 2
-Once again, Boston got off to a hot start, scoring 2 in the first and another in the 2nd to take control of the game
-JBJ didn't have his best game, but 1 for 3 will keep his hitting streak going to 27
-Rick Porcello had a nice rebound start, allowing just 2 runs over 5.2 innings with 5 Ks. Take notes Clay, that's how you protect an early lead even if you don't have your best stuff
-Boston missed a lot of chances to really put this game away, as they left 12 men on base
-Speaking of missed opportunities, David Ortiz was about one inch away from completing his first career batting cycle (hitting a single, double, triple and home run in the same game). Big Papi was a triple short when he came up for his final at-bat in the 8th inning, and Jerry Remy astutely pointed out that the only way for him to get it was to hit one into the triangle in center field. Ortiz did just that, roping the next pitch to the 420 marker. The ball took one hop and hit the top of the padding, caroming into the seats for a ground rule double. Ortiz knew how close he was as well, as he was joking with teammates from second base. Gotta love how much fun the Large Father is having in his final season

So the Sox win the series at home, against a solid team. They pitched well, holding down the 3rd best scoring offense in the American League and beating the top of their rotation. Boston now is tied atop the AL East with Baltimore, looking ahead to a three game set with the Colorado Rockies at Fenway.

Bring on the Tribe

We miss you Tito

     The Red Sox play host to the Cleveland Indians this week, welcoming ex-manager Terry Francona back to Boston. I personally wish he had never been run out of town, but I do understand that heads had to roll after the 2011 collapse, and Francona was blamed for losing the locker room. I guess considering that Farrell has won a World Series, I can't be too upset about it. But I do miss Tito. 

    Anyways, onto the matter at hand. The Indians come into this three game set with a 21-17 record, good for 2nd place in the AL Central. They are riding high, fresh off of a 4 game sweep of the in-state rival Cincinnati Reds in which the Indians scored 43 runs. Hopefully they got all of their hits for the week out of their systems, but probably not; Cleveland is tied for 3rd in the American League in runs scored for the season with 179 (Boston is 1st with 240). The Indians are also 6th in the AL in team ERA at 3.86, giving them a run differential of +35 (4th in the AL). This is a solid, well balanced team, but also one that has won fewer games each year since their last playoff appearance in 2013. Given the high powered offenses on both sides, we can expect some fun, high scoring games over the weekend in Fenway.

     Somewhat unusually for a high scoring team, the Indians are led offensively by their infielders. 22-year-old SS Francisco Lindor has been sensational in his 2nd Major League season, leading the team with a .329 batting average and .821 OPS. The kid is a sensational fielder, a legitimate switch hitter, and a big time rising star who should be one of the best players at his position for years to come. He is joined in the middle of the Indians order by a familiar face: first baseman Mike Napoli, who has blasted 7 HR this year while continuing to sport one of the best beards in baseball. The Indians lineup doesn't have many standout stars, but they are well rounded group and will make the Sox pitchers work through every inning. Let's take a look at who will be tasked with keeping these offenses in check.

Game 1 (Friday, 7:10 PM EST): Clay Buccholz (R) vs Corey Kluber (R)

    

     Clay Buccholz takes the mound for the Sox in the series opener, looking to continue a streak that has seen the Red Sox win each of his last 3 starts. While those results are far better than the 5 straight losses he took to open the year, I give the credit for the turnaround to the offense as opposed to better pitching from Buccholz. In his last two starts, Clay has given up 9 Earned Runs in 11 Innings Pitched, so he's been far from stellar. The thing to watch with him is how he starts off the game; when he struggles, it usually doesn't take long for the opposition to jump on him. The key for Buccholz is his control, especially with his changeup. When he keeps that pitch down, it can be very effective and seems to give him more confidence with locating his other pitches. Otherwise, Clay finds himself pitching from behind in the count, which forces him to groove fastballs or walk guys. Cleveland is right in the middle of the pack in the AL in terms of taking walks, so they won't help him out too much if he's not throwing strikes.

     Corey Kluber won the Cy Young Award in 2014, and is the guy that Cleveland looks to as their ace. His numbers regressed a bit last season, though he still posted a solid 3.49 ERA with 245 strikeouts in 222 innings. This season, Kluber has posted a 4.30 ERA with 52 Ks in 52 IP, so he's definitely come down from the heights of two years ago. He also has not pitched particularly well in his last two starts, giving up 9 ER over 9.1 IP combined. His main pitch is a hard sinker, which he throws at 91-92 MPH and uses to get a lot of ground ball outs. He doesn't have tremendous velocity on his fastball, averaging 92 MPH, but because it looks an awful lot like his sinker, it can be very deceptive. When he is ahead in the count, Kluber uses a devastating slider to put batters away. At 88 MPH, it is very similar in velocity to his hard stuff, but it also has filthy movement. That combination can make hitters look very silly. One guy in the Red Sox order who has had tremendous success against Kluber is Travis Shaw, who is 4-8 with a HR off of him. However, in general I think Kluber will be very tough for the Sox, and gives the Indians the advantage in this matchup. 

Game 2 (Saturday, 4:05 PM EST): TBD vs Trevor Bauer (R)

     John Farrell has not announced who his starter will be for this game yet. Sean O'Sullivan has filled this spot in the rotation the last two times through, replacing Henry Owens and his control problems. However, O'Sullivan hasn't shown much in terms of stuff or results, so I doubt the team wants to see any more of him. I think this game will feature the return of Joe Kelly from the Disabled List, as May 21st has been the target date listed for his return on the team website for a couple of days now. Kelly hit the DL on 4/20 with something called a "right shoulder impingement", which I'm led to believe is inflammation of the rotator cuff (or as WebMD calls it, "cancer"). Kelly looked great in a rehab start in Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday, striking out 10 in 6.1 innings, so all indications are he is healthy and ready to go. Let's hope the injury was his only problem, as he had an ERA of 9.35 in his two starts in the month of April.

      Whoever is on the hill for Boston, we know he will be opposed by righty Trevor Bauer. The 25-year-old started the season in the bullpen for the Indians, but was moved into the starting rotation at the end of April. In his last 3 starts, Bauer has been impressive, giving up just 6 ER over 19.1 innings with 19 strikeouts. Bauer isn't a big guy, at 6'1 and 185 lbs, but he can still muster up impressive velocity in the 93-96 MPH range, topping out at 98. His main off-speed pitch is his 77 MPH curveball, which has a sharp 11-5 break when he throws it well. He will also mix in a funky changeup, which dives inside to a right-handed batter. While Bauer good stuff and an impressive pedigree (he was drafted 3rd overall in 2011), I think the Sox will be able to get to him. While he has impressive velocity, his fastball doesn't have much movement and Boston's lineup is full of guys who can handle heat. Furthermore, Bauer has struggled with his control throughout his professional career, and the Sox patience has earned them the 4th most walks of any team in the AL. This game will probably be determined by the effectiveness of Joe Kelly, but I can see the Sox offense winning this one even if he struggles.   

Game 3 (Sunday, 1:35 PM EST): Rick Porcello (R) vs Danny Salazar (R)

     Rick Porcello gets the ball in the finale for Boston, looking to rebound from his worst start of the season last time out against the Royals. He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings, breaking up his MLB best streak of 15 consecutive starts going at least 6 innings. Against KC, Porcello simply caught too much of the plate with all of his pitches, and paid the price for it. While some members of the Boston media (hint: Felger) have rushed to declare that this is the true Rick Porcello, a mid-4s ERA guy who is a back of the rotation pitcher at best, I'm going to instead trust the larger trend and say that it was simply a bad outing. Every pitcher has days where they don't have their best stuff, and I think Porcello rebounds with a strong start here to turn the volume down on the haters. 

     Porcello is going to need to pitch well, because he is facing Danny Salazar, who has been lights out all season long. Salazar has a 1.80 ERA in 8 starts this year, and has given up 3 ER only once. in 50 innings, he has struck out 61 batters, which is simply nasty. Salazar relies on his blazing fastball, which averages 95 MPH and routinely gets up into the upper 90s. He actually throws both two and four seam fastballs with similarly impressive velocity, so sometimes his fastball cuts in on righties and sometimes it stays straight. For a change of pace, Salazar uses an 86 MPH splitter, which drops out of the strikezone with late movement. He can also throw a pretty good breaking ball, which has solid movement both down and away from righties. This four pitch combination leads to lots of overmatched batters, and Salazar is tied for 3rd in the AL in strikeouts. However, there is one major flaw in Salazar's game: his control. Salazar has walked 23 batters in 50 innings this year, 7th most in the AL. A couple weeks ago, he walked 6 batters in a single start against he Houston Astros. Because he has such high strikeout and walk totals, Salazar can struggle to work deep into games. I think this will be the key to winning this one for the Sox; work the count, get some walks, try to manufacture a couple runs, and get into the bullpen in the middle innings. The Boston lineup is certainly deep, balanced and patient enough to make Salazar work for every out, and if they can execute this strategy they have a good chance to win this one.

Prediction: This is a tough series for the Sox, as they are sending out the bottom of their rotation against the best pitchers that Cleveland has to offer. I can easily see either team winning this series, but because its at Fenway (where the boys are 14-8 this season) and I am a homer, Im going with the Red Sox to win 2 of 3. 

Royals series review

Just as I predicted, the Sox dropped 2 out of 3 games in a tightly contested series in Kansas City. Here are some notes from each game of the series.

Game 1: Red Sox 4, Royals 8 

-This game was a lot closer than the final score indicates, as it was a one run game going into the bottom of the 8th. Frankly, with Wade Davis waiting to come in for the 9th, it was unlikely that Boston was coming back anyway, but it was still disappointing to see Koji Uehara get knocked around a bit to put the game out of reach.
-Jackie Bradley Jr is awesome. Batting 6th in the lineup, he extended his hitting streak to 22 games with his RBI double in the 2nd. The pitch he hit was a changeup up and away, and he drove it to the wall in left-center field. Kauffman Stadium is huge, and this would have been a homer in most ballparks
-The Royals got to Porcello early, with their best player Eric Hosmer going deep in the 3rd. Hosmer is just a terrible matchup for Rick, as he is now 10-27 with 4 HR lifetime off the Sox starter
-The big 4th inning was classic Royals, stringing together singles with aggressive baserunning. JBJ bobbled Omar Infante's RBI single, and Cheslor Cuthbert didn't hesitate in going first to third. Bradley tried to throw him out, allowing Infante to advance into scoring position. This sequence would turn out to be huge, as Paulo Orlando's ensuing single drove in 2 runs instead of 1. The Royals baserunning tested the Sox defense, and created an extra run in the process. It's little things like this that often make the difference in baseball.
-The bottom third of the Royals order absolutely killed the Sox. Their 7-8-9 hitters went a combined 8-12 with 5 runs scored and 5 RBI. Tough to beat a team when that happens.
-HUGE 2-out, 3-run homer from Travis Shaw in 6th. Ventura grooved a fastball, and the Mayor of Ding Dong City lost it to get the Sox back in the game
-John Farrell got ejected out of nowhere in 7th, presumably for arguing balls and strikes from the dugout. NESN didn't have a camera on him, so it's impossible to say exactly what happened. Either it was a very quick trigger from the ump, or Farrell crossed the line somehow. Maybe he had been yapping all game and the ump just got sick of it. Either way, not a good look from Farrell. The zone wasn't bad, and the pitch he was ejected on was borderline at worst. Farrell needs to save his ejections for higher leverage moments; arguing with the ump and blowing up can be an effective tool for a manager, but it loses its impact if you do it too much, a Farrell has already been ejected twice this season.

Game 2: Red Sox 2, Royals 3

-Steven Wright was great in this one, giving up only 5 hits in a complete game effort in the first half of the doubleheader. Big time effort to preserve the bullpen for the night game.
-Unfortunately, the Royals managed to scrape together 3 runs from their 5 hits, which was enough to win the game. As fun and effective as the knuckleball can be, this game showed its downside: when it gets hit, it gets hit hard, and 3 of the Royals hits went for extra bases
-Jarod Dyson saved the game for KC in the 8th with this insane throw from right field to nail Xander Bogaerts trying to go from first to third. Even though the ball was hit hard and right at Dyson, I have absolutely no problem with the X-Man testing his arm there. With one out, you have to try to get to third as the tying run, and it took a perfect throw to get him. Sometimes you just gotta tip your cap.
-JBJ entered the 9th inning without a hit, putting his streak in jeopardy. Facing one of the best closers in the game in Wade Davis, a guy who opponents are hitting just .156 against this season, JBJ ripped a single to keep the streak alive
-Hanley Ramirez pinch hit in the 9th against Davis, and crushed a fastball to straight-away center field. The ball went about 400 feet, but unfortunately Kauffman Stadium is 410 to dead center. In most ballparks, HanRam gives the Red Sox the lead there, but this time it was just a loud final out of the game

Game 3 Red Sox 5, Royals 2 

-David Price looked like the ace we need in this one, going 7.1 innings and allowing 2 runs on 5 hits with 5 Ks. This was his 2nd excellent start in a row, and I can only hope for more of this going forward
-JBJ didn't wait until the 9th to keep his streak alive this time, smoking a Home Run to left center in his first at-bat. He's officially the most exciting player to come up from the Red Sox farm system since Nomar, and I officially have an embarrassingly large man crush on him
-Mookie went deep in the 3rd, absolutely drilling an 97 MPH fastball into the leftfield stands. It's early in Bett's career, but it's already abundantly clear that getting a fastball past him inside is like trying to sneak a sunrise past a rooster: it aint gonna happen.
-Josh Rutledge continues to contribute whenever he gets in the lineup. He was on base 3 times in this game, and scored twice. They guy is hitting .382, and with the ability to play 2B, 3B and SS, he is basically forcing Farrell to play him. This is excellent news for the Red Sox depth, especially because...
-Brock Holt is really struggling. He was 0-4 in this one, dropping his average to a meager .239 for the year. He was an All-Star last year, he can play a whooping 7 positions, and I am a huge fan of his. But, considering how well Rutledge and Chris Young have been hitting, it's possible that Holt will start losing out on at-bats if he continues to struggle
-The Red Sox have been very aggressive on the bases this year, and it continued in this series even against a Gold Glove catcher in Salvador Perez. Boston now has 31 stolen bases on 34 attempts, which gives them the 2nd most total team steals in baseball, and by far the best stolen base percentage

Boston now heads home with a 25-16 record, tied with the Orioles for first place in the division. They start a 3 game series with the Indians on Friday.

Royals Preview

The boys look to keep the momentum from their 6-1 homestand rolling as they head on the road for a quick 3 game series in Kansas City. Thanks to the rainout last night, they will be playing a double header tomorrow at 2:15 and 8:15 Eastern. The Royals are the defending World Series Champions and two time defending AL Pennant winners, so they are an excellent measuring stick to see how good this wonderfully fun Sox team is. Lets go through some general things to watch out for, and then preview the pitching matchups.

-The Royals have gotten off to a slow start by their standards, sitting at just 18-19, 5.5 back of the White Sox in the AL Central. The biggest reason for that is their offense, as they are dead last in the American League with just 131 runs scored on the year (Boston has 229). Their offensive depth and contact hitting approach have been the major catalysts of their success over the past two seasons, but this year those results have simply not been there. Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Kendrys Morales are all underperforming at the plate compared to their numbers from years past, which explains the drastic dropoff in team performance. In fact, Eric Hosmer is just about the only guy in their lineup who has been consistently successful this year; he is hitting .336 with a .928 OPS, numbers that could send him to his first All-Star game.

-The other major factor in the Royals recent success is their bullpen, which has been absolutely lights out over the past two seasons, especially the postseason. Their trio of Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar and closer Wade Davis was virtually unhittable, allowing manager Ned Yost to work with a rotation that does not have a true ace and lacks the depth typically associated with success in October. This season, the Royals have a team ERA of 3.93, 7th best in the AL. Their bullpen has not been as good as they were in October, but they are still performing very well. Kelvin Herrera in particular has been spectacular, allowing just 2 runs in 18 innings this year while striking out 22. Wade Davis has also struck out more than 1 batter per inning, while converting 8 of 9 save opportunities. Basically, getting to the starting pitcher is critical against Kansas City, because late inning comebacks are very unlikely. Fortunately, Boston has been jumping all over everyone they've faced recently, having scored in either the first or second inning for 11 straight games.

-Watch for Jackie Bradley to see if he can continue his spot on Human Torch impression; he is currently carrying a 21 game hitting streak, with an OPS over 1.000 during that span.

On to the pitching matchups... we'll see if anyone can slow down the 1927 Yank... I mean 2016 Red Sox.

Game 1 (Tuesday 8 PM EST): Rick Porcello vs Yordano Ventura
     Rick Porcello is currently enjoying the best pitching stretch of his career. He is 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA, which is very solid. He has gone at least 6 innings in every start this year, allowing no more than 4 runs. His 2 seam fastball has been absolutely on point, with late movement towards a right-handed batter that allows him to back door lefties and jam righties with consistency. The one knock against him is that he has allowed 6 Home Runs on the year, which can turn an outstanding start into a mediocre one in a single swing. Luckily, the Royals are 28th out of 30 in MLB with only 33 home runs as a team, so I expect Porcello to have a very strong outing.
     Ventura has been ok this season, sporting 4.62 ERA coming into this start. He has only gone deeper than the sixth inning once this season, and is coming off a solid outing against the Yankees in which he allowed 3 runs in six innings while earning a win. Ventura is not a strikeout pitcher, with only 29 Ks in 39 innings this year. This is strange, considering his fastball is usually around 97-98 MPH, but he does not have pinpoint control of that pitch. One thing to watch for tonight will be his changeup and curveball locations; if his offspeed stuff is down in the strikezone, he can be dominant. If it stays up, watch out. I think the Red Sox blistering offense won't have much trouble against him, and will get on the board early. I see this one as a Red Sox win. 

Game 2 (Wednesday 2:15 PM EST): Steven Wright vs Ian Kennedy
     Wright is coming off his worst start of the season for the Red Sox, giving up 5 runs on 9 hits to the Astros in the only game the Sox lost last week. I continue to have absolutely no idea what to expect from the knuckleballer, as he is completely reliant on his one enigma of a pitch. He has been fantastic all season other than last time out, but anything could happen in his starts. I do worry that the Royals present a bad matchup for a knuckleball pitcher. Their contact based approach means that they won't try to overswing and hit the ball a mile, as many teams do against the knuckleball. Additionally, their speed and aggression on the basepaths could be very useful weapons against Wright, as the knuckleball leads to a lot of passed balls/wild pitches. I expect the Royals to take full advantage of every baserunner they can get and manufacture at least a couple runs in this one.
        Kennedy was once a highly touted prospect in the Yankees system, but he has never fully realized his potential at the Major League Level. This season, he has a 3.25 ERA and has consistently worked deep into games, going at least 6 innings in 6 of his 7 starts so far. Last time out, he was knocked around by his former club, giving up 7 runs to the last place (suck it) Yankees. He has an average fastball, which tops out at around 92 MPH. One thing he does have is a knuckle-curve, the pitch that made Mike Mussina into a borderline Hall of Famer. The Knuckle-curve is a slow, looping pitch with tremendous 12-6 movement (like on a clock). At just 75 MPH, this slow pitch can make Kennedy's fastball seem a lot harder to catch up with than it really is, and could provide an unusual challenge to the Red Sox offense. However, I think Boston will be able to figure him out at least by the middle innings. This game could come down to a battle of the bullpens, which makes it more or less a coin flip, with a slight edge towards the Royals.

Game 3 (Wednesday 8:15 PM EST): David Price vs Edison Volquez
     This is probably the best pitching matchup of the series, with both teams sending out their best arms. Price has not been up to his usual standards this season, with an ugly ERA of 6.00. However, he is coming off his best start of the year, giving up just 1 run in 6.2 innings with 12 Ks. That start followed the adjustments to his windup that Dustin Pedroia suggested, and it seems like he may have rediscovered his mojo. Last time out, his fastball velocity was up around 94 MPH, which is closer to his career norm than the 90-91 we saw from him earlier in the season. This start will help set my expectations for Price for the rest of the year, and I hope/anticipate that he will be the Cy Young caliber starter the team is paying $30 million for.
     Volquez is the closest the Royals have to an ace, and when he is on he is very very tough to hit. His main pitch is a 94 MPH sinker, which is much faster than the average sinker. He also mixes in a solid curveball and a very good changeup, which has dramatic downward movement when it is working well. All of Volquez's pitches generate a ton of ground balls, which enables him to get double plays with men on base and kill rallies. This season, Volquez has a 3.51 ERA, which actually undersells his performance. He has 2 bad outings, in which he gave up 13 runs combined. In his other 6 starts, he has allowed 7 runs combined. His last start was on May 13th, and he gave up just 1 run in 7 IP against the lowly Atlanta Braves. I think this one will be a pitchers duel as well, which could easily come down to the bullpens. The Royals are better suited to this kind of game, and their superior bullpen depth will be a major advantage in the second game of the doubleheader. I think the home team wins a nail-biter.

Prediction: The Royals are the defending champs, and are playing at home. Despite the video game level stats the Sox have been putting up offensively, I think Kansas City will be able to slow them down. It wouldn't surprise me if Boston wins this series, but Im going to have to pick the Royals to win 2 of 3. 
     

Astros Preview

Lets Keep Rollin

     The Red Sox welcome the Astros to Fenway for a 4 game set over the weekend. This will be the last time the two teams meet this season, with the Red Sox having taken 2 of 3 in Houston 3 weeks ago. The Astros are 14-21 overall this season, 7.5 games back in the AL West (yeah, its still weird that they are in the AL). They are 7th in the league with 144 runs scored, right in the middle of the pack, and 11th in the league with a 4.31 team ERA (one spot behind Boston). However, they have been playing better as of late, winning 4 of their last 6. They did just play a 16 inning game against Cleveland yesterday, so they will likely be tired coming into Boston.

     The Astros were a playoff team a year ago, and they are loaded with young talent. They are led offensively by second baseman Jose Altuve, who is a bonafide star at the age of 26. Altuve is hitting .321 with 9 HR this season, putting him among the league leaders in both categories. Add to that his 13 Stolen Bases, and he is one of the preeminent speed-power dual threats in the game today. He is the leadoff man for Houston, so stopping him is the key to keeping this lineup in check. 

     Behind Altuve, there is a significant dropoff in performance from the Astros lineup this year, which explains their slow start. However, they are not to be taken lightly, as the likes of Colby Rasmus, Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena, Carlos Correa, and Evan Gatis all hit more than 20 HR last season. The AStros also lead the American League in stolen bases, so this will be a challenge for both the Boston pitching staff and defense.  

Game 1: David Price vs. Dallas Keuchel 

     This is a matchup of two marquee left-handed aces who have not been pitching up to their capabilities this year. For the Red Sox, David Price gets his first start since Dustin Pedroia noticed the problem with his low leg kick last week. We'll see if Price has made any adjustments since, and if those adjustments can turn around his poor start. The Astros lineup features three left-handed hitters, and also features nobody who has had success against Price in the past. This is a good chance for Price to turn things around.

     The Astros hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel for this game, last year's American League Cy Young winner. There aren't many better tests for the Red Sox red hot offense than this, especially considering how badly they have hit against left-handed pitchers this year. Keuchel has not been nearly as good this year though, with a 5.08 ERA through 7 starts. He did pitch well in his last outing, allowing 2 ER through 7 IP against the Mariners. One thing about the lefty starting is that it means Chris Young will more than likely start in LF for the Sox. Young was brought in to hit lefties, but got off to a horrendous start to the year. However, in his last two starts he is 5-9 with 2 doubles, so maybe he has figured things out. Either way, with the way the Red Sox have been hitting and the anticipated improvement in Price's pitching, I'm going to predict a Win for Boston.

Game 2: Steven Wright vs. Lance McCullers

     Knuckleballing sensation Wright takes his 1.52 ERA to the mound on Friday, looking to continue his magical run to start the season. I'm always skeptical of knuckleball pitchers having sustained excellence, but Wright has been essentially untouchable every time he's been out there, and if his pitch keeps dancing, his success will continue. He is a breed of pitcher that defies analysis or prediction.

     McCullers will be making his season debut in this game, getting a late start to the season due to shoulder soreness that popped up in his last start of spring training. Last year, McCullers was a big piece of the Astros improvement as a 21-year-old rookie. He had a 3.22 ERA with 129 Ks in 126 innings, and has excellent stuff. Like most strikeout pitchers, McCullers relies heavily on his fastball, which averages 95 MPH. He also has a hard curveball, which is much faster than average at 85 MPH. He uses it to get a lot of ground balls, which can turn into lots of double plays with the athletes the Astros have in the middle infield. McCullers also mixes in a 90 MPH changeup, which is kind of a ridiculous statement. The Red Sox have hit power pitching well this year, and McCullers will likely be on a fairly short pitch count. Unless Wright's magic runs out, this should be another Red Sox win.

Game 3: Clay Buccholz vs Collin McHugh

     Buccholz has been pretty much awful for most of this year, and I think I've made my feelings on him pretty clear. He pitched well for the first time 10 days ago, recovering from a Jose Abreu HR in the first to pitch 7 strong. Last time out, he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the A's. Maybe he has something figured out and runs off a string of gems, but I think it's more likely that he leaves this game in the 3rd with a finger blister or something and goes on the DL for 2 months. 

     McHugh is another guy whose performance has been way below what he did last season. In 2015, McHugh finished 8th in Cy Young voting, with a 19-7 record and 3.89 ERA. This year, that ERA has ballooned to 5.50, although much of that stems from his first start of the season when he did not make it out of the first. He has been strong in his last two starts, giving up just 1 run in 7 IP against the Mariners. This is the first matchup that distinctly favors the Astros, and I think this one ends up as a Red Sox loss.

Game 4: TBD vs TBD

Neither team has announced a starter for the series finale yet, so it's tough to analyze this one. This would have been Henry Owens spot in the rotation, but his control issues have landed him in the minors. Last time through the rotation, Sean O'Sullivan got the spot start and pitched five scoreless frames before giving up 4 in the sixth. It will be interesting to see who the team decides to go with here. It certainly won't be Eduardo Rodriguez or Joe Kelly, who both have Triple-A rehab starts scheduled this week. As for the Astros, the return of McCullers will disrupt their rotation, so it remains to be seen who they go with here. Without more to go on, Im going to go ahead and side with the Red Sox blistering hot offense, and predict a Boston victory.

Prediction: Boston takes 3 of 4

The Oakland Massacre Recap

Break Em Out Again!

Well that was fun! After a tough road trip, the Sox were happy to be home and showed it by absolutely DESTROYING the A's over a three game sweep. Breaking each game down individually is a bit pointless, because the Sox outscored Oakland 40-15 over the series. 40 RUNS IN THREE GAMES!! That's what this offense is capable of, and what's truly special about this lineup is how deep it is 1-9. Lets go through some of the outstanding stats and performances from this epic beatdown. 

-The Red Sox have no pulled into a tie with the Chicago Cubs for the MLB lead in runs scored with 196, or 5.8 runs per game.

-The Sox +48 run differential (the best indicator of a teams performance) is the best in the American League, and trails only the Cardinals (+50) and the Cubs (+99!!!) in all of baseball.

-6 of the Red Sox starting 9 are now batting over .300

-In addition to 40 runs, the Red Sox piled up 48 hits against the A's, giving them a team batting average of .403 for the series.

-21 of those hits went for extra bases, including 8 home runs and 13 doubles. So much for those concerns about the Sox inability to hit for power!

-Jackie Bradley Jr. continues to be an absolute monster. He was 8-14, with 3 HR and 13 RBI in the series 

-JBJ extended his hitting streak to an MLB best 17 games: he is hitting .406 with 14 extra base hits over that span, and is fourth in MLB since August 2015 with 48 extra base hits. After a disastrous start to his MLB career at the plate, the kid has it figured out and I for one could not be happier about it

-Having Bradley hit 8th or 9th when he's on fire like this seems like a pretty odd move for manager John Farrell, but Im actually in favor of it. I see no reason to disrupt the rhythm he is in right now, and moving him up in the order could hurt his production. Having a threat like JBJ at the bottom of the order actually gives the Sox an advantage over every other team, as there are no easy innings for opposing pitchers. With his speed, Bradley at the bottom of the order essentially acts as a second leadoff hitter, setting the table for the top of the lineup. Additionally, the team as a whole is basically the nine horsemen of the apocalypse right now, so there is no need to change anything. 

-Travis Shaw was 7-12 with 4 XBH this series. He is a beast, and is the reason we can hope to never see that fat fuck Pablo Sandoval in the Red Sox lineup ever again

-Dustin Pedrioa has rediscovered his power stroke. After declining for three straight seasons with only 28 HR combined, he has proven that those issues were injury related with his play so far this year. Petey has 6 HR already, and is tied for sixth in MLB with 44 hits--one behind his middle infield partner Xander Bogaerts. 

-Speaking of the X-man, Bogaerts had multiple hits in all three games of the series, raising his average to .328, good for 4th in the American League

-Hanley Ramirez continues his remarkable turnaround. Coming into the season, Hanley was a couple hamburgers short of Pablo Sandoval, and his transition to First Base was dreaded. People were discussing when, not if, his defense would make him totally unplayable, and were desperately searching for ways the Sox could trade him away. Fast forward six weeks, and Hanley has completed flipped the script. He is hitting over .300 with 4 HR in the past week. Perhaps most impressively, his defense has not only been not awful, its been downright good. I can't remember an athlete turning my opinion on him so completely in such a short period

Next up is 4 games with the Astros, who should at least present the Sox the major league-level competition

Red Sox Athletics Series Preview

The Red Sox play hosts to the Oakland Athletics this week, the first time the two teams will meet this season and the only series they will play until September. The Athletics come into Boston having lost 6 of their last 7, leaving them at 14-18 overall, 4.5 games behind the Mariners in the AL West. The A's have scored 117 runs this year, fifth worst in the American League, while compiling a 4.15 team ERA, also fifth worst in the AL. Basically, Oakland is not a particularly good team and is not playing well at the moment. This should be a good opportunity for the Sox to pick up some wins, but let's look at the pitching matchups to see how they can do it.

Game 1: Clay Buccholz vs Sonny Gray 

Clay Buccholz is coming off his first strong performance of the year, working 7 solid innings against the Yankees. While his location was notably improved in his last outing, I am not going to let myself believe in his turnaround yet. However, pitching against a weak Oakland offense gives him a good chance to string together back-to-back impressive performances, which he will need in order to keep his spot in the rotation once Eduardo Rodriguez gets healthy.
     On the other side of this one is Sonny Gray, the A's 26 year old ace and Vanderbilt alumni. Last year, Gray was 14-7 with a 2.37 ERA. He was an AL All-Star and finished third in the Cy Young voting (for best American League pitcher). However, this year Gray has gotten off to a mediocre start, giving up 3 runs or more in 4 of 6 appearances. In his last start, Gray gave up 7 runs in 7 innings against the Mariners in an 8-2 loss. I think this matchup favors the Athletics, despite the recent trends of both pitchers. I simply don't trust Buccholz, I've been through too much.

Game 2: Sean O'Sullivan vs Sean Manaea 

This game features two largely untested starters named Sean, and fittingly the Irish guy is pitching for Boston while the Pacific Islander plays for Oakland. Sometimes the world makes sense. O'Sullivan is making his first big league start in a Red Sox uniform, but does have 52 starts at the major league level since 2009. He has a career ERA of 5.96, with 146 strikeouts and a whopping 109 walks in 303 IP. There is a good reason he has never been a major league pitcher for any extended length of time, but since the Red Sox decided to send Henry Owens down to the minors to figure out his control issues, somebody has to start.
     As inexperienced as O'Sullivan is, Manaea is even more green. The Sidewinding lefty is a rookie this year, and will be making only his third career start on Tuesday. He has an unconventional delivery, but still gets decent velocity (92 MPH average fastball) with decent off-speed stuff to match. In each of his first two career starts, he has gone 5 innings while allowing 4 runs, so he doesn't appear to be anything special. Since I don't see any reason to expect excellence from either starter, I have to go with the superior offense, which no question belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

Game 3: Rick Porcello vs TBD

Rick Porcello takes the hill for Boston in the finale, bringing his 5-1 record and 2.95 ERA with him. He has been the only consistently dependable starter in Boston outside of Steven Wright, and has been solid to excellent since getting off the DL last August. He is coming off a 7 IP, 3 run performance in his first loss of the season, although I blame that game on Ron Kulpa's stupid face and his even stupider strike zone. Oakland has not announced a starter for this game, but we know it won't be Rich Hill or Kendall Graveman, both of whom pitched over the weekend. Frankly, I'd predict a Boston win no matter who they go with; Porcello has been reliable and the Red Sox lineup is simply much better than the Athletics'.

Bottom Line: Anything less than 2 Red Sox wins in 3 games would be a disappointment.
   

Road Trip Recap

The Sox completed their 6 game road trip at 3-3, which is exactly where I thought they'd be. They took 2 of 3 in Chicago from the first place White Sox before dropping 2 of 3 in the Bronx against the last place Yankees, which is the inverse of what I expected, but whatever.

Game 1: Red Sox 1, White Sox 4

Jose Quintana blanked the boys, allowing just one run on 4 hits over 8 innings. The Sox struggles against lefties continued, and another strong start from Steven Wright went by the wayside. The Sox knuckleballer gave up only 3 hits in 6 innings, but unfortunately 2 of those hits were a triple and a homer that gave the White Sox all the runs they needed. The most important thing for me from this game was the appearance of Carson Smith, who I expect to play a key role in the Sox bullpen this year. In his first outing since returning from the Disabled List, Smith pitched a perfect inning with a strikeout. Good start, welcome to 2016 Carson!

Game 2 Red Sox 5, White Sox 2

With another stud lefty (Carlos Rodon) on the hill against Clay Buccholz, this game previewed as another loss for Boston, and when Jose Abreu hit a Buccholz changeup to the moon in the first it looked like a long night for the visitors. However, Clay showed some very un-buccholz-ian resilience, and shut down the opposition for the ensuing 6 frames. The offense finally got things going against a lefty, led by multi-hit games from the Large Father David Ortiz and Xander Bogaerts. Its simply awesome to see the Sox win their first Buccholz game of the season; hopefully he can build on this success, but Im not holding my breath.

Also of note is the play of one Josh Rutledge, who got the start at 3B in this game and went 2-3 at the plate. He is now 7-14 on the season, and with the ability to slot in at 2B, 3B or SS, he may be earning more looks with the way he's made the most of every opportunity.

Game 3 Red Sox 7, White Sox 3

As a result of sending John Danks to the minors, the White Sox were forced to call someone up for a spot start in one of the games of this series, and game three was it. Erik Johnson has been up and down from Triple-A since 2013, with mixed results. Games like these are an opportunity for good offenses, and the Red Sox jumped all over it, scoring in each of the first 3 innings. They could have scored even more, but they left 7 men on base through 5, and frankly they were lucky it didn't bite them in the ass. Henry Owens started for the Red Sox, and couldn't find the plate from the beginning. He didn't get any help from the umpire, but when you walk 6 guys in 3 innings you can't blame the officiating. Somehow, the White Sox managed to only plate 2 runs with those walks, as Owens got two key strikeouts, against the middle of the order, with the bases loaded. After those early chances, the White Sox couldn't get much going against the bullpen, which strung together 6 innings of 1 run ball.

Game 1 Red Sox 2, Yankees 3

This game was insanely, insanely frustrating. Rick Porcello put together another solid performance, giving up 3 runs over 7 IP. The offense got 8 hits against Joel Pineda in 6 innings, but could only plate 2 of them, both on Big Papi's first inning blast (his 50th career HR against the Yankees, 2nd most of any opposing team). However, this one got really frustrating in the 9th. With the score at 3-2 Yankees, Boston loaded the bases against Andrew Miller, with Ortiz coming up. Miller ran the count to 3-1, one bad pitch away from tying the game. This is when umpire Ron Kulpa decided to step into the spotlight, calling two of the worst strikes you will ever see to wring up Ortiz. Ortiz justifiably flipped out, leading to Manager John Farrell getting ejected. Though Hanley Ramirez still had a chance to tie the game and struck out swinging, its fair to say that Kulpa's horseshit cost the Sox this game.

Game 2 Red Sox 2, Yankees 8

The story of this one is the continued struggles of David Price. The $30 million man has been a pretty serious letdown so far this season, and after allowing 6 ER in 4.2 IP his ERA has ballooned to 6.75, which is very bad. The good news is he hasn't been consistently awful, so I don't think he's injured. However, that removes the easiest explanation for his lack of performance, which stems from a worrying drop in fastball velocity since 2015. The good news is that apparently Dustin Pedroia has figured out what's wrong through studying film of Price. Im not sure whether Petey will fix the issue, or why our second baseman is finding things that apparently evaded the notice of both the manager and pitching coach, but as long as Price improves from here I will be happy. He needs to if this rotation has a chance of being playoff quality.

Game 3 Red Sox 5, Yankees 1

Steven Wright pitched another brilliant gem, holding the Yankees scoreless until Brett Gardner's solo homer with two outs in the ninth. With this complete game, Wright dropped his ERA on the season to 1.52. He appears to be on an RA Dickey-esque tear, where his knuckleball becomes basically untouchable out of nowhere. I'm still not sure how sustainable this success is, but I intend to enjoy the ride for however long it lasts.

As for the offense, all the runs came by way of the long ball, with Pedroia and Bogaerts sandwiching two Big Papi bombs to right center. Also of note is the continued hitting of Jackie Bradley Jr., who now has a hit in 14 straight games. He is batting .288/.342/.519 for the season, firmly answering the questions over whether his success at the end of last season represented a turning point or merely a fluke.

So thats it for the road trip. The Red Sox come back to Fenway at 18-13, 1/2 a game behind the Orioles for first place in the AL East. Next up is a 7 game homestand against the Athletics and Astros.      
  

Red Sox-White Sox series preview

The Red Sox travel to the south side of Chicago on Tuesday to start a 3 game series against the White Sox, the less popular but more successful team from the Windy City. The Lesser Sox are exceeding expectations so far this season,  currently sitting in first place in the AL Central at 18-8. They are coming off a four game split in Baltimore, winning the last two games of the series. They are 6th in baseball in runs scored with 102, and have the best team ERA by far (2.65). That combination gives them a +25 run differential, which is the best in the American League (though still MILES behind the crosstown Cubbies' RIDICULOUS +78).

Offensively, the White Sox lineup doesn't appear too imposing, but they do have some pieces. Jose Abreu is their best player and an established all-star. Although he has started slowly this year, over the last week he's hitting at a .379 clip, so he's heating up at exactly the wrong time. Abreu has gotten some protection in the lineup this year from 3B Todd Frazier, who leads the team with 7 HR already (tied for 3rd in the AL). Outside of those guys, Melky Cabrera is their only real plus offensive player, but they have still scored plenty of runs so far somehow.

The real strength of the White Sox is their pitching, especially the bullpen. David Robertson is their closer, a guy who is familiar to Red Sox fans from his years with the Yankees. Robertson and his blazing fastball have been brilliant, as he has converted 8/9 save chances and allowed only one run this year. They also have a trio of set-up men in Matt Albers, Nate Jones, and lefty Zach Duke. None of those three has allowed more than 2 ER, so the starters will be even more important than usual. Lets look at the scheduled matchups to see who will have the edge.

Game 1: Steven Wright vs. Jose Quintana
Steven Wright has been a knuckleballing sensation this season, with a 1.37 ERA. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in 7 straight starts going back to last season, and has been the best starter we've got this year. However, the knuckleball is utterly unreliable, and can become a beachball with no warning whatsoever. Wright has been a wonderful surprise so far, but I feel like he might be due for a clunker.

Meanwhile, Quintana is a bonafide ace. The 27-year-old lefty is 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA, and has 32 K in 30.2 IP. His fastball and sinker are both well-located, and have decent velocity around 92-93 MPH. However, his best pitch is probably his curveball, which he throws about 30% of the time. It has excellent movement down and in to a right-handed hitter, and at 77 MPH it provides a big change of pace. Quintana also mixes in a decent changeup and the occasional cutter, and is very tough to get to. The White Sox have the edge in this matchup.
Game 2: Clay Buccholz vs. TBA
Initially, John Danks was scheduled to start this game for the White Sox. However, since he has an ERA of 7.25 and has allowed 5 HR in 22 IP, they decided to designate him for assignment this afternoon. This means they sent him down to the minor leagues, unless another team wants him. So we don't know yet who will be starting on Wednesday. What a novel concept, dumping a pitcher who sucks! Can anyone think of another team that might follow the same plan? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?

Clay Buccholz has started 5 games this year, and the Red Sox have lost all five. Over the last 3 seasons, the Red Sox are 19-32 in games he pitches. Thats a winning percentage of .373, or worse than the worst team in baseball last year. I know he has the potential to be an ace, as he has shown over stretches in his career (that always end in injury). But frankly, it's been ten years since he exploded onto the scene as a rookie, and Im sick of waiting for him to put it together. Ten years. A full decade of throwing him out there every fifth day and destroying our bullpen after he gives up 8 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Lets give someone else a try. Whoever the White Sox call up for this spot start will give them the advantage on the bump.
Game 3: Henry Owens vs. Carlos Rondon
Owens will be making just his third start of the season on Thursday, so we don't have a ton to go off of. In his last outing against the Yankees, he allowed 2 runs over 6 IP, but in his first start he didn't make it out of the 4th against Houston. Since being called up in August of last year, he has been basically boom or bust, mixing in total meltdowns every couple starts. I don't think the White Sox offense is good enough to really light him up, but its a possibility.

On the other side, the White Sox will start lefty Carlos Rondon, who is 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA in five starts this year. However, those number are skewed by his disastrous outing in Anaheim two weeks ago, when he didn't make it out of the first inning. Other than that, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 earned runs, so he has been mostly solid. The Red Sox have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this year, so Im going to have to give the edge to the Palehose once again.

Prediction
The Red Sox are lucky to be seeing the back end of the White Sox rotation this series, avoiding Chris Sale who is an absolute monster. At the same time though, I think the pitching matchups still favor Chicago in all three games. The Red Sox haven't hit lefties at all this year, and will be facing at least two of them this series. The White Sox white hot, and have the benefit of home field advantage. I think the Red Sox lose two of three here, and could even get swept if the bats are quiet.  

Red Sox Yankees Review

Break 'em out! 

The Red Sox welcomed the old rivals from New York to Fenway for the first time in 2016, and they swept them aside over a delicious weekend series. 

Game 1: Red Sox 4, Yankees 2 Friday night saw Henry Owens go up against Masahiro Tanaka, a poor matchup for the Sox on paper. Owens held his own, allowing just 2 runs over 6 innings. That performance was critical, as Tanaka absolutely blanked the home team over the first 6 frames. However, Joe Girardi tried to stretch him through the 7th, despite the Yankees having one of the best bullpens in the game, and Boston took advantage. Jackie Bradley Jr. hit a clutch 2-out, 2 run double off the Monster to tie the game, ending Tanaka's night. David Ortiz, as he so often does, played the hero the next inning with his two run bomb off of Dellin Betances, and Kimbrel shut the door in the 9th. While Ortiz got the headlines for his game-winner (and rightly so), the hit I want to talk about was Jackie Bradley's.

       This 7th inning double was not only timely, but a great example of the progress JBJ has made as a hitter. Tanaka actually made a good pitch, a splitter that was down and diving away from the left-handed Bradley. Its the kind of pitch that lefties hate, and usually produces a swing-and-miss or weak grounder. However, Bradley got extended, showed off his plate coverage, and drove it off the wall to the opposite field. Its the kind of swing you only see when a guy is absolutely locked in, and Bradley has been red hot lately. In the last two weeks, he has raised his average over 50 points to .274, and if he continues to hit like this, the American League needs to watch out. 

Game 2 Red Sox 8, Yankees 0 This game looks like a blowout based on the score, but it was actually a tight game for the first 6 innings. Joel Pineda battled through 5 IP, giving up 2 runs. The Sox were able to break the game open against the middle relievers as soon as he left, with David Ortiz hitting his 2nd HR of the series (5th of the season). JBJ also continued to stroke it, with 2 triples, a double and 3 RBI. The real story of this game though was the pitching of one Rick Porcello.

Porcello has gotten a lot of bad press since coming to Boston, largely because he pitched horribly for much of last season. However, since he returned from a stint on the disabled list on August 26th, he has been a totally different pitcher. In 13 starts, he has not gone fewer than 6 IP, which is the longest active streak in MLB. While he hasn't been dominant over this stretch, his ERA is 3.00, nothing to shake a stick at. Basically, he has been a solid, dependable starter since he got healthy, which is pretty much exactly what the front office thought they were getting when they traded for him. Porcello is now a legitimate 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA in 2016, making him undoubtedly the best pitcher on the team this season. 

Game 3 Red Sox 8, Yankees 7 With a pitching matchup featuring a guy like David Price on one side, and Nathan Eovaldi coming off 7 shutout innings on the other, you would expect a pitchers' duel. However, baseball is the most unpredictable of games, and the finale of the series turned out as a wild, back-and-forth affair. Neither pitcher had it going on Sunday, as both gave up 6 ER while recording only 3 strikeouts apiece. Instead, it was the offenses who took center stage, with 23 hits combined. All that hitting produced 5 lead changes, capped off by Christian Vasquez's 2-out, 2-run dinger in the 7th. That bomb was given up by Dellin Betances, who needs a hug after giving up 2 game winners in 3 games. Its always awesome to get clutch hitting, but its even better when the bottom of the order wins the game against one of the opposition's best. Great win for the Sox, great series. However, there are concerns.

David Price is not pitching well. At all. In 4 starts at home this year, Price has now given up 21 runs in 22 2/3 IP. Thats truly awful, and its validating some of the naysayers who balked at the Price signing over the summer because they didn't think he would be able to succeed in Fenway. However, I think Price will be fine. Coming into this season, Price had a 1.95 ERA in 74 IP over 11 starts, so its not like the shadow of the Monster is messing with his head. Im going to view these early season struggles as a blip, one that will be corrected. Price has earned the benefit of the doubt. However, its definitely something to watch going forward. 

Overall, things are rosy in Beantown. The Sox are now 15-10, in sole possession of first place in the AL East. Even better, they are now 15-5 in games not involving Clay Buccholz, with the returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Carson Smith still on the horizon. Next up is a 6 game road trip, Ill be posting a preview of the upcoming series soon.