We miss you Tito
The Red Sox play host to the Cleveland Indians this week, welcoming ex-manager Terry Francona back to Boston. I personally wish he had never been run out of town, but I do understand that heads had to roll after the 2011 collapse, and Francona was blamed for losing the locker room. I guess considering that Farrell has won a World Series, I can't be too upset about it. But I do miss Tito.
Anyways, onto the matter at hand. The Indians come into this three game set with a 21-17 record, good for 2nd place in the AL Central. They are riding high, fresh off of a 4 game sweep of the in-state rival Cincinnati Reds in which the Indians scored 43 runs. Hopefully they got all of their hits for the week out of their systems, but probably not; Cleveland is tied for 3rd in the American League in runs scored for the season with 179 (Boston is 1st with 240). The Indians are also 6th in the AL in team ERA at 3.86, giving them a run differential of +35 (4th in the AL). This is a solid, well balanced team, but also one that has won fewer games each year since their last playoff appearance in 2013. Given the high powered offenses on both sides, we can expect some fun, high scoring games over the weekend in Fenway.
Somewhat unusually for a high scoring team, the Indians are led offensively by their infielders. 22-year-old SS Francisco Lindor has been sensational in his 2nd Major League season, leading the team with a .329 batting average and .821 OPS. The kid is a sensational fielder, a legitimate switch hitter, and a big time rising star who should be one of the best players at his position for years to come. He is joined in the middle of the Indians order by a familiar face: first baseman Mike Napoli, who has blasted 7 HR this year while continuing to sport one of the best beards in baseball. The Indians lineup doesn't have many standout stars, but they are well rounded group and will make the Sox pitchers work through every inning. Let's take a look at who will be tasked with keeping these offenses in check.
Game 1 (Friday, 7:10 PM EST): Clay Buccholz (R) vs Corey Kluber (R)
Clay Buccholz takes the mound for the Sox in the series opener, looking to continue a streak that has seen the Red Sox win each of his last 3 starts. While those results are far better than the 5 straight losses he took to open the year, I give the credit for the turnaround to the offense as opposed to better pitching from Buccholz. In his last two starts, Clay has given up 9 Earned Runs in 11 Innings Pitched, so he's been far from stellar. The thing to watch with him is how he starts off the game; when he struggles, it usually doesn't take long for the opposition to jump on him. The key for Buccholz is his control, especially with his changeup. When he keeps that pitch down, it can be very effective and seems to give him more confidence with locating his other pitches. Otherwise, Clay finds himself pitching from behind in the count, which forces him to groove fastballs or walk guys. Cleveland is right in the middle of the pack in the AL in terms of taking walks, so they won't help him out too much if he's not throwing strikes.
Corey Kluber won the Cy Young Award in 2014, and is the guy that Cleveland looks to as their ace. His numbers regressed a bit last season, though he still posted a solid 3.49 ERA with 245 strikeouts in 222 innings. This season, Kluber has posted a 4.30 ERA with 52 Ks in 52 IP, so he's definitely come down from the heights of two years ago. He also has not pitched particularly well in his last two starts, giving up 9 ER over 9.1 IP combined. His main pitch is a hard sinker, which he throws at 91-92 MPH and uses to get a lot of ground ball outs. He doesn't have tremendous velocity on his fastball, averaging 92 MPH, but because it looks an awful lot like his sinker, it can be very deceptive. When he is ahead in the count, Kluber uses a devastating slider to put batters away. At 88 MPH, it is very similar in velocity to his hard stuff, but it also has filthy movement. That combination can make hitters look very silly. One guy in the Red Sox order who has had tremendous success against Kluber is Travis Shaw, who is 4-8 with a HR off of him. However, in general I think Kluber will be very tough for the Sox, and gives the Indians the advantage in this matchup.
Game 2 (Saturday, 4:05 PM EST): TBD vs Trevor Bauer (R)
John Farrell has not announced who his starter will be for this game yet. Sean O'Sullivan has filled this spot in the rotation the last two times through, replacing Henry Owens and his control problems. However, O'Sullivan hasn't shown much in terms of stuff or results, so I doubt the team wants to see any more of him. I think this game will feature the return of Joe Kelly from the Disabled List, as May 21st has been the target date listed for his return on the team website for a couple of days now. Kelly hit the DL on 4/20 with something called a "right shoulder impingement", which I'm led to believe is inflammation of the rotator cuff (or as WebMD calls it, "cancer"). Kelly looked great in a rehab start in Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday, striking out 10 in 6.1 innings, so all indications are he is healthy and ready to go. Let's hope the injury was his only problem, as he had an ERA of 9.35 in his two starts in the month of April.
Whoever is on the hill for Boston, we know he will be opposed by righty Trevor Bauer. The 25-year-old started the season in the bullpen for the Indians, but was moved into the starting rotation at the end of April. In his last 3 starts, Bauer has been impressive, giving up just 6 ER over 19.1 innings with 19 strikeouts. Bauer isn't a big guy, at 6'1 and 185 lbs, but he can still muster up impressive velocity in the 93-96 MPH range, topping out at 98. His main off-speed pitch is his 77 MPH curveball, which has a sharp 11-5 break when he throws it well. He will also mix in a funky changeup, which dives inside to a right-handed batter. While Bauer good stuff and an impressive pedigree (he was drafted 3rd overall in 2011), I think the Sox will be able to get to him. While he has impressive velocity, his fastball doesn't have much movement and Boston's lineup is full of guys who can handle heat. Furthermore, Bauer has struggled with his control throughout his professional career, and the Sox patience has earned them the 4th most walks of any team in the AL. This game will probably be determined by the effectiveness of Joe Kelly, but I can see the Sox offense winning this one even if he struggles.
Game 3 (Sunday, 1:35 PM EST): Rick Porcello (R) vs Danny Salazar (R)
Rick Porcello gets the ball in the finale for Boston, looking to rebound from his worst start of the season last time out against the Royals. He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings, breaking up his MLB best streak of 15 consecutive starts going at least 6 innings. Against KC, Porcello simply caught too much of the plate with all of his pitches, and paid the price for it. While some members of the Boston media (hint: Felger) have rushed to declare that this is the true Rick Porcello, a mid-4s ERA guy who is a back of the rotation pitcher at best, I'm going to instead trust the larger trend and say that it was simply a bad outing. Every pitcher has days where they don't have their best stuff, and I think Porcello rebounds with a strong start here to turn the volume down on the haters.
Porcello is going to need to pitch well, because he is facing Danny Salazar, who has been lights out all season long. Salazar has a 1.80 ERA in 8 starts this year, and has given up 3 ER only once. in 50 innings, he has struck out 61 batters, which is simply nasty. Salazar relies on his blazing fastball, which averages 95 MPH and routinely gets up into the upper 90s. He actually throws both two and four seam fastballs with similarly impressive velocity, so sometimes his fastball cuts in on righties and sometimes it stays straight. For a change of pace, Salazar uses an 86 MPH splitter, which drops out of the strikezone with late movement. He can also throw a pretty good breaking ball, which has solid movement both down and away from righties. This four pitch combination leads to lots of overmatched batters, and Salazar is tied for 3rd in the AL in strikeouts. However, there is one major flaw in Salazar's game: his control. Salazar has walked 23 batters in 50 innings this year, 7th most in the AL. A couple weeks ago, he walked 6 batters in a single start against he Houston Astros. Because he has such high strikeout and walk totals, Salazar can struggle to work deep into games. I think this will be the key to winning this one for the Sox; work the count, get some walks, try to manufacture a couple runs, and get into the bullpen in the middle innings. The Boston lineup is certainly deep, balanced and patient enough to make Salazar work for every out, and if they can execute this strategy they have a good chance to win this one.
Prediction: This is a tough series for the Sox, as they are sending out the bottom of their rotation against the best pitchers that Cleveland has to offer. I can easily see either team winning this series, but because its at Fenway (where the boys are 14-8 this season) and I am a homer, Im going with the Red Sox to win 2 of 3.
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