The Red Sox travel to the south side of Chicago on Tuesday to start a 3 game series against the White Sox, the less popular but more successful team from the Windy City. The Lesser Sox are exceeding expectations so far this season, currently sitting in first place in the AL Central at 18-8. They are coming off a four game split in Baltimore, winning the last two games of the series. They are 6th in baseball in runs scored with 102, and have the best team ERA by far (2.65). That combination gives them a +25 run differential, which is the best in the American League (though still MILES behind the crosstown Cubbies' RIDICULOUS +78).
Offensively, the White Sox lineup doesn't appear too imposing, but they do have some pieces. Jose Abreu is their best player and an established all-star. Although he has started slowly this year, over the last week he's hitting at a .379 clip, so he's heating up at exactly the wrong time. Abreu has gotten some protection in the lineup this year from 3B Todd Frazier, who leads the team with 7 HR already (tied for 3rd in the AL). Outside of those guys, Melky Cabrera is their only real plus offensive player, but they have still scored plenty of runs so far somehow.
The real strength of the White Sox is their pitching, especially the bullpen. David Robertson is their closer, a guy who is familiar to Red Sox fans from his years with the Yankees. Robertson and his blazing fastball have been brilliant, as he has converted 8/9 save chances and allowed only one run this year. They also have a trio of set-up men in Matt Albers, Nate Jones, and lefty Zach Duke. None of those three has allowed more than 2 ER, so the starters will be even more important than usual. Lets look at the scheduled matchups to see who will have the edge.
Game 1: Steven Wright vs. Jose Quintana
Steven Wright has been a knuckleballing sensation this season, with a 1.37 ERA. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in 7 straight starts going back to last season, and has been the best starter we've got this year. However, the knuckleball is utterly unreliable, and can become a beachball with no warning whatsoever. Wright has been a wonderful surprise so far, but I feel like he might be due for a clunker.
Meanwhile, Quintana is a bonafide ace. The 27-year-old lefty is 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA, and has 32 K in 30.2 IP. His fastball and sinker are both well-located, and have decent velocity around 92-93 MPH. However, his best pitch is probably his curveball, which he throws about 30% of the time. It has excellent movement down and in to a right-handed hitter, and at 77 MPH it provides a big change of pace. Quintana also mixes in a decent changeup and the occasional cutter, and is very tough to get to. The White Sox have the edge in this matchup.
Game 2: Clay Buccholz vs. TBA
Initially, John Danks was scheduled to start this game for the White Sox. However, since he has an ERA of 7.25 and has allowed 5 HR in 22 IP, they decided to designate him for assignment this afternoon. This means they sent him down to the minor leagues, unless another team wants him. So we don't know yet who will be starting on Wednesday. What a novel concept, dumping a pitcher who sucks! Can anyone think of another team that might follow the same plan? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?
Clay Buccholz has started 5 games this year, and the Red Sox have lost all five. Over the last 3 seasons, the Red Sox are 19-32 in games he pitches. Thats a winning percentage of .373, or worse than the worst team in baseball last year. I know he has the potential to be an ace, as he has shown over stretches in his career (that always end in injury). But frankly, it's been ten years since he exploded onto the scene as a rookie, and Im sick of waiting for him to put it together. Ten years. A full decade of throwing him out there every fifth day and destroying our bullpen after he gives up 8 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Lets give someone else a try. Whoever the White Sox call up for this spot start will give them the advantage on the bump.
Game 3: Henry Owens vs. Carlos Rondon
Owens will be making just his third start of the season on Thursday, so we don't have a ton to go off of. In his last outing against the Yankees, he allowed 2 runs over 6 IP, but in his first start he didn't make it out of the 4th against Houston. Since being called up in August of last year, he has been basically boom or bust, mixing in total meltdowns every couple starts. I don't think the White Sox offense is good enough to really light him up, but its a possibility.
On the other side, the White Sox will start lefty Carlos Rondon, who is 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA in five starts this year. However, those number are skewed by his disastrous outing in Anaheim two weeks ago, when he didn't make it out of the first inning. Other than that, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 earned runs, so he has been mostly solid. The Red Sox have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this year, so Im going to have to give the edge to the Palehose once again.
Prediction
The Red Sox are lucky to be seeing the back end of the White Sox rotation this series, avoiding Chris Sale who is an absolute monster. At the same time though, I think the pitching matchups still favor Chicago in all three games. The Red Sox haven't hit lefties at all this year, and will be facing at least two of them this series. The White Sox white hot, and have the benefit of home field advantage. I think the Red Sox lose two of three here, and could even get swept if the bats are quiet.
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