First Place on the Line
The Red Sox head to beautiful Camden Yards (the only beautiful thing in that pit of a city) this week for a big 4 game set against the Orioles. The Orioles are 28-20, 1 game behind Boston for the lead in the AL East. Baltimore is 5th in the American League with a +17 run differential, most of which comes from their 3.80 team ERA, which is 4th best in the league. However, they can also hit the ball a bit, with 214 runs scored on the year (7th in the league). The Orioles are managed by Buck Showalter, who is one of the best skippers in all of baseball, and have a penchant for winning close games. They do all the little things well, play good defense, and have a tremendous bullpen. Their relief corp is led by closer Zach Britton, whose 14 saves are tied for the league lead. He is joined by Brad Brach, Darren O'Day, and Mychal Givens, who all have ERAs under 3.00 for the season. This team is tough to beat late, so the Red Sox will have to hope their ability to get on the scoreboard early carries them through this series.
Offensively, the Orioles are led by perennial MVP candidate Manny Machado, who is one of the top 5 players in MLB as a five-tool third baseman (although he has been playing SS recently due to JJ Hardy's injury). Machado is hitting .315 this year, with 13 homers and an eye-popping 1.003 OPS that speaks to his blend of power and consistency getting on base. The Orioles have also gotten major contributions from RF Mark Trumbo this year: Trumbo is tied for the AL lead in home runs with 15, and is tied for 4th in RBI with 37. 1B Chris Davis also provides power in the middle of the lineup; his 169 homers since 2011 are the most of any major league player over that timeframe, and earned him a 7 year $161 million contract in the offseason. However, Davis is one of those homer or bust type hitters, and his 66 strikeouts this season are 5th most in the majors. One guy who the Orioles are hoping to get a bit more out of is CF Adam Jones. Jones is one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and has hit at least 25 HR in each of the last 5 years. He has gotten off to a horrible start this season, hitting just .232 with only 12 extra base hits. Baltimore is going to need more from him as the year goes along if they want to keep up with the Sox.
Watch out for Machado, Davis and Jones this week
Game 1: Steven Wright (R) vs Tyler Wilson (R)
Wright comes into this start with a 2.52 ERA on the season, which is tied for 5th best in the American League. He is exactly what the Red Sox need in this game, as the bullpen worked very hard in the series against Toronto and is in need of a break. Wright has gone at least 7 innings in 3 of his past 4 starts, and his low-stress style should enable him to go deep into this game. I've been a doubter of the knuckleball all season, but I am not stubborn enough to keep predicting Wright will implode. I do think one of the Orioles power hitters will get ahold of a floater and send it into the seats, but I doubt they will get much more than a couple runs.
Tyler Wilson is a 26-year-old righty pitching his first full season as a major league starter. He has an impressive 3.80 ERA this year, but has struggled a bit in each of his last two starts, giving up 9 runs in 12 IP. Wilson is not a strikeout pitcher, with only 22 Ks in 43 innings this year. He has below average velocity on his fastball, averaging just 89.8 MPH with the pitch this season. His main breaking ball is his curve, which has traditional 12-6 action at around 78 MPH. He also features the occasional changeup, which has a tricky late fading action that makes it probably his best swing-and miss pitch. Wilson relies on location and deception to get weak contact from opposing hitters, but I think the Sox will have no problem getting some runs across against him. Im going to predict a Red Sox victory in the opener.
Game 2: Eduardo Rodriguez (L) vs Kevin Gausman (R)
Rodriguez will be making his long awaited season debut for the Red Sox in this one, having recovered from the patella tendon subluxation that has sidelined him since February 27th. Before the season, I thought E-Rod's level of success would be a critical factor in determining how far the Red Sox go, and my opinion on that hasn't changed. If E-Rod has harnessed the ace-level talent he flashed at times as a 22-year-old rookie last season, then the Sox could have a real playoff rotation headlined by two devastating lefties. If he continues to experience intermittent problems with control and pitch tipping that lead him to alternate between excellent and awful results, then they will only go as far as their offense can carry them. As far as this start goes, I will be watching to see how well Rodriguez pitches inside, and how much progress he has made developing his slider. He has always had an above average fastball and changeup, but he needs that breaking ball to be a really outstanding major league pitcher. He has had problems with pitching aggressively at times in his young career, so I'm hoping to see that he has no qualms with going inside and attacking hitters. Before his injury, all reports out of spring training indicated that he was prepped for a big season, so I can't wait to finally see what he's got.
Kevin Gausman is another one of the Orioles young, promising starting pitchers. At 25 years old, Gausman has already compiled almost two full seasons of experience as a starter, although this year is his first as a full-time member of the Baltimore rotation. He is off to a strong start this season, with a 3.24 ERA in 7 starts. He has pitched at least 5.0 innings in every game he has appeared in, although he's gone more than 6.0 only twice, so the Sox can expect to at least get some looks against middle relievers in this game. Gausman throws serious gas from the right side, averaging almost 96 MPH with his fastball and topping out at over 100. He also has been throwing a pretty deadly splitter this season, which is a new pitch for him. Pitch F/X has no record of him using that pitch at all before 2016, but this year it is his favorite non-fastball offering. At 85-90 MPH, Gausman's splitter is an effective off speed pitch, and he likes to use it to strike batters out once he gets ahead in the count. While the Sox have been a very good fastball hitting team this year, I think Gausman could get the better of them with that splitter, at least early on in the game. He will have to be very careful with David Ortiz, as the Large Father is not only hitting the ever loving shit out of the ball right now, but also has great career numbers against Gausman (6-13, 2 HR). I think this will be a close game that comes down to the bullpens, but it's tough to know what to expect out of Rodriguez. Because of the uncertainty about a starting pitcher coming off the DL, Im going to have to predict an Orioles win here.
Game 3: Joe Kelly (R) vs Mike Wright (R)
Joe Kelly has made two starts since returning from the disabled list. In his first, he took a no-hitter into the 7th inning. In his second, he couldn't get Josh Donaldson out and allowed 5 runs in 4.2 IP. In both starts, Kelly has been living in the upper 90s with both four- and two-seam fastballs, leading to a lot of strikeouts (15 in 11.1 innings). One things to watch out for is the matchup with Chris Davis, who has had success against Kelly in the past to the tune of 5-10 with a homer. I think Kelly will pitch well in this one, but I can see the offense-friendly nature of Camden Yards contributing to a crooked inning for the home team that makes his stat line look mediocre.
Stop me if this sounds familiar, but Mike Wright is a promising young arm that the Orioles believe will be a part of their future. At 26 years old and right handed, he fits like a glove (rimshot) with the rest of their pitching staff. Unlike most of their pitchers though, Wright has struggled this season, posting a 5.05 ERA in 9 starts. He has only pitched past the 6th inning once, and a typical game line of his looks something like 5 IP with 3-4 runs allowed. He does throw five different pitches, and has solid velocity on his fastball (93.4 MPH average). He has a decent slider and a workable changeup, but he really needs to locate his fastball to be successful. This guy strikes me as a typical workman, who will slot in as the fourth or fifth starter on a contending team. Given the friendly confines of Camden Yards, I see the Sox league leading offense having no trouble with him. I don't think Kelly needs to no-hit Baltimore in this one; as long as he is better than his last outing, the Red Sox will win.
Game 4: Rick Porcello (R) vs Ubaldo Jimenez (R)
Porcello battled through his last outing, allowing 4 runs in 6.2 IP against the outstanding Blue Jays offense. He has been a solid and dependable pitcher for the Sox this season, posting a 3.68 ERA so far to shut down the haters (Felger) who label him as an overpaid bum. While he is certainly not spectacular, Porcello has done enough mixing his two seam fastball with offspeed offerings to get outs consistently. I think he has really benefitted this season from having Christian Vazquez behind the plate; the young catcher exudes confidence and calls the game in a way that makes Rick feel secure on the mound, which is a necessary component to any starter's success.
Opposing Rick in this one will be Ubaldo Jimenez, the guy the Orioles acquired as a free agent in 2014 for $50 million over 4 years. Jimenez gained notoriety as a member of the Rockies in 2010, when he came out of nowhere to contend for the Cy Young Award. However, he has not been able to match that production since, and has bounced from Colorado to Cleveland and now Baltimore. This year, Jimenez has a 6.36 ERA and has allowed at least 5 runs in each of his last 4 starts. His success in the past depended largely on the effectiveness of his sinker, which he used to rack up strikeouts and double play balls. In the past two seasons, Jimenez has seen his velocity decrease by 3 MPH on his fastball, which is a classic sign of declining skills for a pitcher and unsurprising at the age of 32. He has also been throwing his slider less frequently, which is probably caused by being ahead in the count less frequently. While Jimenez is clearly on the decline in his career, it's always possible that he pulls a gem out of his ass. Considering that he hasn't had one since he faced the anemic Oakland offense three weeks ago though, I think the Sox will rake some extra base hits off him and put together scoring chances. I think this will be a close game, but Im going to give the edge to the Red Sox.
So there you have it. The Sox will take 3 of 4 from Baltimore, solidifying their place as the best team in the AL East. Keep an eye on Xander Bogaert's hitting streak, which stands at 22 games coming into the series.
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