Royals Preview

The boys look to keep the momentum from their 6-1 homestand rolling as they head on the road for a quick 3 game series in Kansas City. Thanks to the rainout last night, they will be playing a double header tomorrow at 2:15 and 8:15 Eastern. The Royals are the defending World Series Champions and two time defending AL Pennant winners, so they are an excellent measuring stick to see how good this wonderfully fun Sox team is. Lets go through some general things to watch out for, and then preview the pitching matchups.

-The Royals have gotten off to a slow start by their standards, sitting at just 18-19, 5.5 back of the White Sox in the AL Central. The biggest reason for that is their offense, as they are dead last in the American League with just 131 runs scored on the year (Boston has 229). Their offensive depth and contact hitting approach have been the major catalysts of their success over the past two seasons, but this year those results have simply not been there. Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Kendrys Morales are all underperforming at the plate compared to their numbers from years past, which explains the drastic dropoff in team performance. In fact, Eric Hosmer is just about the only guy in their lineup who has been consistently successful this year; he is hitting .336 with a .928 OPS, numbers that could send him to his first All-Star game.

-The other major factor in the Royals recent success is their bullpen, which has been absolutely lights out over the past two seasons, especially the postseason. Their trio of Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar and closer Wade Davis was virtually unhittable, allowing manager Ned Yost to work with a rotation that does not have a true ace and lacks the depth typically associated with success in October. This season, the Royals have a team ERA of 3.93, 7th best in the AL. Their bullpen has not been as good as they were in October, but they are still performing very well. Kelvin Herrera in particular has been spectacular, allowing just 2 runs in 18 innings this year while striking out 22. Wade Davis has also struck out more than 1 batter per inning, while converting 8 of 9 save opportunities. Basically, getting to the starting pitcher is critical against Kansas City, because late inning comebacks are very unlikely. Fortunately, Boston has been jumping all over everyone they've faced recently, having scored in either the first or second inning for 11 straight games.

-Watch for Jackie Bradley to see if he can continue his spot on Human Torch impression; he is currently carrying a 21 game hitting streak, with an OPS over 1.000 during that span.

On to the pitching matchups... we'll see if anyone can slow down the 1927 Yank... I mean 2016 Red Sox.

Game 1 (Tuesday 8 PM EST): Rick Porcello vs Yordano Ventura
     Rick Porcello is currently enjoying the best pitching stretch of his career. He is 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA, which is very solid. He has gone at least 6 innings in every start this year, allowing no more than 4 runs. His 2 seam fastball has been absolutely on point, with late movement towards a right-handed batter that allows him to back door lefties and jam righties with consistency. The one knock against him is that he has allowed 6 Home Runs on the year, which can turn an outstanding start into a mediocre one in a single swing. Luckily, the Royals are 28th out of 30 in MLB with only 33 home runs as a team, so I expect Porcello to have a very strong outing.
     Ventura has been ok this season, sporting 4.62 ERA coming into this start. He has only gone deeper than the sixth inning once this season, and is coming off a solid outing against the Yankees in which he allowed 3 runs in six innings while earning a win. Ventura is not a strikeout pitcher, with only 29 Ks in 39 innings this year. This is strange, considering his fastball is usually around 97-98 MPH, but he does not have pinpoint control of that pitch. One thing to watch for tonight will be his changeup and curveball locations; if his offspeed stuff is down in the strikezone, he can be dominant. If it stays up, watch out. I think the Red Sox blistering offense won't have much trouble against him, and will get on the board early. I see this one as a Red Sox win. 

Game 2 (Wednesday 2:15 PM EST): Steven Wright vs Ian Kennedy
     Wright is coming off his worst start of the season for the Red Sox, giving up 5 runs on 9 hits to the Astros in the only game the Sox lost last week. I continue to have absolutely no idea what to expect from the knuckleballer, as he is completely reliant on his one enigma of a pitch. He has been fantastic all season other than last time out, but anything could happen in his starts. I do worry that the Royals present a bad matchup for a knuckleball pitcher. Their contact based approach means that they won't try to overswing and hit the ball a mile, as many teams do against the knuckleball. Additionally, their speed and aggression on the basepaths could be very useful weapons against Wright, as the knuckleball leads to a lot of passed balls/wild pitches. I expect the Royals to take full advantage of every baserunner they can get and manufacture at least a couple runs in this one.
        Kennedy was once a highly touted prospect in the Yankees system, but he has never fully realized his potential at the Major League Level. This season, he has a 3.25 ERA and has consistently worked deep into games, going at least 6 innings in 6 of his 7 starts so far. Last time out, he was knocked around by his former club, giving up 7 runs to the last place (suck it) Yankees. He has an average fastball, which tops out at around 92 MPH. One thing he does have is a knuckle-curve, the pitch that made Mike Mussina into a borderline Hall of Famer. The Knuckle-curve is a slow, looping pitch with tremendous 12-6 movement (like on a clock). At just 75 MPH, this slow pitch can make Kennedy's fastball seem a lot harder to catch up with than it really is, and could provide an unusual challenge to the Red Sox offense. However, I think Boston will be able to figure him out at least by the middle innings. This game could come down to a battle of the bullpens, which makes it more or less a coin flip, with a slight edge towards the Royals.

Game 3 (Wednesday 8:15 PM EST): David Price vs Edison Volquez
     This is probably the best pitching matchup of the series, with both teams sending out their best arms. Price has not been up to his usual standards this season, with an ugly ERA of 6.00. However, he is coming off his best start of the year, giving up just 1 run in 6.2 innings with 12 Ks. That start followed the adjustments to his windup that Dustin Pedroia suggested, and it seems like he may have rediscovered his mojo. Last time out, his fastball velocity was up around 94 MPH, which is closer to his career norm than the 90-91 we saw from him earlier in the season. This start will help set my expectations for Price for the rest of the year, and I hope/anticipate that he will be the Cy Young caliber starter the team is paying $30 million for.
     Volquez is the closest the Royals have to an ace, and when he is on he is very very tough to hit. His main pitch is a 94 MPH sinker, which is much faster than the average sinker. He also mixes in a solid curveball and a very good changeup, which has dramatic downward movement when it is working well. All of Volquez's pitches generate a ton of ground balls, which enables him to get double plays with men on base and kill rallies. This season, Volquez has a 3.51 ERA, which actually undersells his performance. He has 2 bad outings, in which he gave up 13 runs combined. In his other 6 starts, he has allowed 7 runs combined. His last start was on May 13th, and he gave up just 1 run in 7 IP against the lowly Atlanta Braves. I think this one will be a pitchers duel as well, which could easily come down to the bullpens. The Royals are better suited to this kind of game, and their superior bullpen depth will be a major advantage in the second game of the doubleheader. I think the home team wins a nail-biter.

Prediction: The Royals are the defending champs, and are playing at home. Despite the video game level stats the Sox have been putting up offensively, I think Kansas City will be able to slow them down. It wouldn't surprise me if Boston wins this series, but Im going to have to pick the Royals to win 2 of 3.