In 2007, The Red Sox swept the red hot Rockies in the World Series to capture their second title in four years. That series will have no impact on this three game set, although that won't keep TV pundits from talking about it. Looking at you, Sportscenter.
The Rockies come into the series at 21-22, 5.0 games back of the Giants in the NL West. They are finishing up a tough 9 game road trip, on which they are 2-4. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Despite their mediocre record, the Rockies actually have good offensive numbers as a team. They are 4th in the National League in runs scored with 211, and while it might be tempting to chalk that up to the fact that they play their home games a mile above sea level at Coors Field, that is not the case this year. Colorado has scored 99 runs at home, and 112 on the road. So their offensive production is legit. They are led by 3B Nolan Arenado, who is a true superstar and probably one of the 10 best position players in all baseball. Arenado is second in the NL with 14 HR, third with 34 RBI, and eighth with 50 hits. He is batting .298 with a .372 OBP and a .601 slugging percentage. Red Sox pitchers would be wise to be very careful with Nolan. Additionally, the Rockies feature one of the more interesting and surprising stories in baseball so far this season. Rookie shortstop Trevor Story has already blasted 12 home runs on the season, and is surging out to an early lead for the Rookie of the Year award. The Rockies can definitely swing the bats, which could allow them to compete with Boston's league leading offense.
However, as has been the case for most of the franchise's existence, the Rockies struggle with pitching. They come into the series with a team ERA of 4.82, 13th out of 15 in the National League. They really don't have anything close to an ace in their starting rotation, and their starters ERA is 5.23, which is downright awful. Their bullpen is a bit better, led by Boone Logan and Gonzalez Germen, who both sport sub-2.00 ERAs, but without starting pitching a good bullpen is of limited use. Bringing bad pitching to Fenway is a really terrible idea right now, and their ERA could be going up over the next three days.
Game 1 (Tuesday, 7:10 EST): David Price (L) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (L)
David Price goes for Boston in this game, looking to put together a third consecutive strong outing. Since making adjustments to his windup two starts ago, he has thrown 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and 3 runs allowed. Despite his early season struggles, Price actually leads the American League in Ks this season with 70, and has a good chance to add to that total significantly in this one. The Rockies have two guys in their batting order (Trevor Story and Mark Reynolds) who strikeout a LOT, so if Price has his stuff working, he could get those guys alone 4 or 5 times.
Price will be opposed in this game by Jorge De La Rosa, who has been downright horrendous this season. De La Rosa is coming off a brief stint on the DL, and has not been effective yet this year. In 4 starts, he has only made it out of the 5th inning once, has not allowed fewer than 4 runs in a game, and has an ERA of 10.18. Suffice to say, I expect the Sox to jump all over him early and give Price plenty of run support to work with, leading to an easy Boston win.
Game 2 (Wednesday, 7:10 EST): Steven Wright (R) vs Chad Bettis (R)
If you've been reading anything I've written this season, you'll know that I am skeptical of the success of Steven Wright this year. I simply don't trust the knuckleball to make a pitcher consistently elite. While it can get hit hard at any time, it is a very low stress pitch and doesn't pose much challenge in terms of pitching motion. Its success or failure seems to me to come down to luck, as Wright basically just floats it toward the plate and hopes it dances away from the barrel of the bat. That has certainly been happening most of the time this year, as Wright has a 2.52 ERA this year and has thrown at least 8 innings in two of his last three starts.
Chad Bettis is probably the Rockies second best pitcher, but that's not saying much considering he has an ERA of 4.18. He is coming off of an excellent start against the very strong offense of the St. Louis Cardinals, where he went 6.2 innings while giving up just 1 run on 5 hits. A lot of people predicted that this would be a breakout season for Bettis, and he was all over the fantasy baseball sleeper lists. A lot of that hype was based on reports that his fastball was showing a marked increase in velocity during spring training, but that hasn't been the case so far. During brief major league stints in each of the past three years, his fastball was averaging about 92 MPH. This season, its averaged 91.6 MPH, so basically the same as what he's done before. Bettis also features a decent slider, two seam fastball, changeup, and the occasional slow curve, but he really doesn't have any pitch that is outstanding. He relies on location and guile to get hitters out, which is an approach that could conceivably be successful against he power-packed Boston lineup. However, I think the Red Sox are simply too hot to handle at this point (6 guys are over .300), and will be able to score some runs in this one.
Game 3 (Thursday, 7:10 EST): Clay Buccholz (R) vs Jon Gray (R)
What more can I say about Clay Buccholz at this point? He has been better in May than he was in April, but continues to be plagued by the disease of the One Bad Inning. A typical start for this point sees him pitch decently well, but give up a crooked number in the 3rd, 4th or 5th inning, leading to a 4 or 5 run outing. He has a tendency to throw his worst pitches when there are a couple of men on base, giving up multiple runs on an extra base hit. I think it may be a mental thing at this point; either Clay simply can't handle the pressure, or he tries to be too careful and leaves a changeup in the middle of the plate. I can absolutely see Clay having one of those innings against the Rockies, in a situation where he has to face Arenado or Story with a couple guys on. I am sick of watching him pitch, and I can't wait for Eduardo Rodriguez to come back and knock him out of the rotation.
While this is almost definitely Colorado's best chance to win a game this series, they will have to do so with 24-year-old Jon Gray and his 6.75 ERA on the mound. Up until his last outing, Gray was actually have an excellent run in the month of May. In his first three starts of the month, he went 20 innings while allowing just 4 runs on 10 hits with 24 strikeouts. Those numbers are really impressive, but it all came crashing down in his last start, when he allowing 9 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 3.1 innings. While its possible that he was simply off and the Cardinals mashed him, its equally possible that he got lucky and caught some cold offenses at the right time earlier in the month. We don't have much a track record on the young kid, who is in his first full major league season this year. WE do know that he has excellent velocity on his fastball, averaging 95.5 MPH on the season. He also has a decent slider, with solid movement down and away to a right handed hitter at 86 MPH that he uses to pile up strikeouts once he is ahead in the count. However, Gray has a lot of work to do developing his other offerings, as he has not shown much confidence throwing either his changeup or his curveball. He has only thrown those pitches a combined 40 times this year, so he really doesn't feel comfortable throwing them except as an experiment at this point. I think the Red Sox get on the youngster early and shake his confidence, getting into the bullpen again.
Prediction: The Rockies have relied on their offense to win games this year, and they won't be using their best pitcher this series. The Red Sox are 16-9 at Fenway, and the lineup has recovered nicely from a brief cold stretch in Kansas City. Barring a total meltdown from Buccholz, I think we're looking at another chance to break out the brooms as the Red Sox sweep.
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