Astros Preview

Lets Keep Rollin

     The Red Sox welcome the Astros to Fenway for a 4 game set over the weekend. This will be the last time the two teams meet this season, with the Red Sox having taken 2 of 3 in Houston 3 weeks ago. The Astros are 14-21 overall this season, 7.5 games back in the AL West (yeah, its still weird that they are in the AL). They are 7th in the league with 144 runs scored, right in the middle of the pack, and 11th in the league with a 4.31 team ERA (one spot behind Boston). However, they have been playing better as of late, winning 4 of their last 6. They did just play a 16 inning game against Cleveland yesterday, so they will likely be tired coming into Boston.

     The Astros were a playoff team a year ago, and they are loaded with young talent. They are led offensively by second baseman Jose Altuve, who is a bonafide star at the age of 26. Altuve is hitting .321 with 9 HR this season, putting him among the league leaders in both categories. Add to that his 13 Stolen Bases, and he is one of the preeminent speed-power dual threats in the game today. He is the leadoff man for Houston, so stopping him is the key to keeping this lineup in check. 

     Behind Altuve, there is a significant dropoff in performance from the Astros lineup this year, which explains their slow start. However, they are not to be taken lightly, as the likes of Colby Rasmus, Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena, Carlos Correa, and Evan Gatis all hit more than 20 HR last season. The AStros also lead the American League in stolen bases, so this will be a challenge for both the Boston pitching staff and defense.  

Game 1: David Price vs. Dallas Keuchel 

     This is a matchup of two marquee left-handed aces who have not been pitching up to their capabilities this year. For the Red Sox, David Price gets his first start since Dustin Pedroia noticed the problem with his low leg kick last week. We'll see if Price has made any adjustments since, and if those adjustments can turn around his poor start. The Astros lineup features three left-handed hitters, and also features nobody who has had success against Price in the past. This is a good chance for Price to turn things around.

     The Astros hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel for this game, last year's American League Cy Young winner. There aren't many better tests for the Red Sox red hot offense than this, especially considering how badly they have hit against left-handed pitchers this year. Keuchel has not been nearly as good this year though, with a 5.08 ERA through 7 starts. He did pitch well in his last outing, allowing 2 ER through 7 IP against the Mariners. One thing about the lefty starting is that it means Chris Young will more than likely start in LF for the Sox. Young was brought in to hit lefties, but got off to a horrendous start to the year. However, in his last two starts he is 5-9 with 2 doubles, so maybe he has figured things out. Either way, with the way the Red Sox have been hitting and the anticipated improvement in Price's pitching, I'm going to predict a Win for Boston.

Game 2: Steven Wright vs. Lance McCullers

     Knuckleballing sensation Wright takes his 1.52 ERA to the mound on Friday, looking to continue his magical run to start the season. I'm always skeptical of knuckleball pitchers having sustained excellence, but Wright has been essentially untouchable every time he's been out there, and if his pitch keeps dancing, his success will continue. He is a breed of pitcher that defies analysis or prediction.

     McCullers will be making his season debut in this game, getting a late start to the season due to shoulder soreness that popped up in his last start of spring training. Last year, McCullers was a big piece of the Astros improvement as a 21-year-old rookie. He had a 3.22 ERA with 129 Ks in 126 innings, and has excellent stuff. Like most strikeout pitchers, McCullers relies heavily on his fastball, which averages 95 MPH. He also has a hard curveball, which is much faster than average at 85 MPH. He uses it to get a lot of ground balls, which can turn into lots of double plays with the athletes the Astros have in the middle infield. McCullers also mixes in a 90 MPH changeup, which is kind of a ridiculous statement. The Red Sox have hit power pitching well this year, and McCullers will likely be on a fairly short pitch count. Unless Wright's magic runs out, this should be another Red Sox win.

Game 3: Clay Buccholz vs Collin McHugh

     Buccholz has been pretty much awful for most of this year, and I think I've made my feelings on him pretty clear. He pitched well for the first time 10 days ago, recovering from a Jose Abreu HR in the first to pitch 7 strong. Last time out, he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the A's. Maybe he has something figured out and runs off a string of gems, but I think it's more likely that he leaves this game in the 3rd with a finger blister or something and goes on the DL for 2 months. 

     McHugh is another guy whose performance has been way below what he did last season. In 2015, McHugh finished 8th in Cy Young voting, with a 19-7 record and 3.89 ERA. This year, that ERA has ballooned to 5.50, although much of that stems from his first start of the season when he did not make it out of the first. He has been strong in his last two starts, giving up just 1 run in 7 IP against the Mariners. This is the first matchup that distinctly favors the Astros, and I think this one ends up as a Red Sox loss.

Game 4: TBD vs TBD

Neither team has announced a starter for the series finale yet, so it's tough to analyze this one. This would have been Henry Owens spot in the rotation, but his control issues have landed him in the minors. Last time through the rotation, Sean O'Sullivan got the spot start and pitched five scoreless frames before giving up 4 in the sixth. It will be interesting to see who the team decides to go with here. It certainly won't be Eduardo Rodriguez or Joe Kelly, who both have Triple-A rehab starts scheduled this week. As for the Astros, the return of McCullers will disrupt their rotation, so it remains to be seen who they go with here. Without more to go on, Im going to go ahead and side with the Red Sox blistering hot offense, and predict a Boston victory.

Prediction: Boston takes 3 of 4